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Dogpile

Taylor Trading Technique

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Hello WHY?,

 

Recognizing that my trading ignorance would fill silos: When you reference the dates and numbers below, is that the SPX? If so, I get my EOD data from TC2000 - so when I get home tonight, would I be able to look at the SPX and follow along?

 

Any chance you would consider picking an EOD stock or something like the QQQQ or SPY to occasionally discuss?

 

TIA

 

Gary

If you like name a individual stock or two in tc2000 you would like to track and/or the QQQQ and I will help in that area. I suggest get a decent price stock that has good volume and also out of curiosity pick a stock under 1.50 share (from .20 to 1.50) that has at least 100,000 shares on average (more is better) a day and doesnt trade in highly defined range, and we will track it

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WHY?,

 

if I use the 'look back at the last 10 days and the lowest low was the buy day' rule --- then today looks like the buy day. is this the kind of day you software adjusts for or are you sticking with idea that tomorrow you will only do a short since today was a sell day and therefore tomorrow would be a 'sell short' day?

 

dog

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<<What do you think dogpile have we bottomed on the S&P? Today is a taylor sell day.>>

 

lol. happily, I don't have to make that judgment --- I just take the set-ups as they come.

 

<<May I ask you where you would start and why?>>

 

well I was wrong on my count but I will tell you why I thought 10/11 was a day to look to short.

 

Because we had built a ton of volume at 1570 on 10/5. We tested up away from that on 10/9. 10/10 we build a lot more volume at 1570. 1570 had become a 'heavy' point and this price was high in the range. The gap up on 10/11 surprised me somewhat but given the volume profile and the fact that 4 of last 5 days traded 'low first, high last' -- I felt that it could be a bear trap. It was.

 

Taylor-wise, there were 2 low to high days and a violation of the 2nd high -- that is a short set-up in its own right. This was my thinking at the time. I was right on the bear trap and made decent money that day -- though only 5 or so points. This past Friday was a MUCH better day for me. The key to me is to just make money every day and occassionally you make that big win. 10/11 was not my big-win day, 10/19 was... just the way it goes.

Dogpile is it possible you are trying to use intraday volume info to help you determine if it is a B,S, or SS day? If so, then you could get caught on the cross currents of the day. Taylor is an EOD system that would use daily charts to make its decisions (if one uses charts at all). The intraday action at any one point would not determine what day of the cycle it is. That is determined by overall daily action as represented by a daily chart or just the numbers. All with an emphasis on the open, high. low close of THE day to determine the next day of the cycle. Each day that decision is already made BEFORE the market ever opens. The only thing intraday action is used for is for tape reading to fine tune the entry points within the main daily trend. But the main daily trend is already anticipated before the market opens.

 

Take today for instance, I mentioned in an earlier post that it was a Taylor sell day. With the previous weak condition of the market and the low close of 10-19 one would not expect an "ideal" sale day but a possible chance for BV. However, once it traded down and made the BV you would use intraday tape reading to decide if it had bottomed. If so ,you take a long position. In all fairness that would have been taken after the open this morning and not in pre market hours so one could have gotton in about 1499 or 1500 around 10.a.m. The rules on a BV state to sell the long position at or thru any penetration of the low of the previous buy day (in this case 10-19). By 10:30 you could have sold the longs at 1505 or should you have chosen to wait a little longer you could have sold the at 1515 or so. So you capture 5 pt or 15 points on the main part of the trend. You are out of the market for the day. The reason you don't hold that long for long or overnight is because the market is still weak. Showing a litte more strenght but still weak. BV are indications of weakness.

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<<Dogpile is it possible you are trying to use intraday volume info to help you determine if it is a B,S, or SS day?>>

 

I am not relating my volume analysis to a taylor day -- I am not a pure-taylor guy --- I am a hybrid -- I find things that 'speak' to me and use them. I use short-term set-ups that I feel have underlying 'concepts' -- like Taylors -- behind them. Thus, I think of Taylor for his concepts -- I think of Market Profile for its concepts etc.... I am just trading when the concepts I believe in align with my short-term set-ups.

 

I am here simply because I would like to learn Taylor better -- but I am a profitable trader without Taylor --- I would just like to understand True Taylor.

 

What I find is really sweet is when I learn something new and then sometimes that lines up with something else I know to be a profitable concept -- then you have more confidence to take that trade. That is what learning Taylor better could REALLY do for me.

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I am not relating my volume analysis to a taylor day
I thought you might relating intraday vol to the cycle because when I look at your post #63 you state you thought that 10-11 was a "for sure SS day". Then on your post #74 you mentioned "why" you thought that 10-11 was a day to short, that reason being the extreme vol around 1570 intrady on another previous day. So, I kind of put the two post together and thought you might be saying that the vol around 1570 on another day caused you to think that 10-11 was a for sure Short sell day.

 

Also, the pinball; isn't that Rascke's way or a modified Rascke way to rephase the cycle? Doesn't that operate on volume? Or have I totally misunderstand what pinball is about? It could be a way to get a clearer rephase???

 

If you arent using your analysis of volume and relating it to Taylor I would encourage to try and do that. You might discover a better way to rephase Taylor. Angell had his way, Rascke hers, Taylor could have, if he wished. I built rephasing into mine. I just havent really found that much benefit, if any, to rephasing. Maybe Taylor knew that, therefore he did concern himself with it??? Look at it this way. Over a 10 day period we are talking of aprox 3 - 3 day cycles. Taylor method is short term trading anyway, unless you are using it to trend trade. A lower low made 4 months ago wouldnt affect the price action today in terms of short term trading..at least not that much. Me thinks that the most recent price action, say 10 to 15 days, within its context (accum, dist, markup, markdown) would have more to do with the pressures of the market that would affect say the next 2 to 3 days time frame. So, I really just wouldn't worry too much about a day that 3 months ago was a buy day but when I rephase today that same buy day 3 months ago is now a sell day. It really doesn't matter. What matters is the shorter time frame. That is probally why Taylor never cared to go back more than 10 days. Does this make any sense or have I just confused the issue even more?

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<<Does this make any sense or have I just confused the issue even more?>>

 

 

I didn't say anything about going back 3 months so I am not sure what you mean by this last post. I was just asking if you thought today might have been action consistent enough with a 'buy day' to change your thinking for tomorrow. You mentioned today was a sell day and therefore tomorrow would be a 'sell short day' in which longs are not consistent with Taylor. Again, I am just curious on how you interpreted todays action with how it relates for tomorrow. I may very well go long tomorrow -- or I may not -- I am just trying to understand any 'adjustments' made in how you are thinking about it.

 

Today worked out well. We moved below the previous day low and could therefore use the previous day low plus a bit more as a target. This was 1505+ on the S&P futures -- call it 1505-1510.

 

This was a nice target to have (1505+) because I had no other pivot to work with given the trend-down nature of Fridays action. There was no real zone to short into -- therefore I favored the long-side early. I had the Taylor method as a roadmap and we had 'upside range expansion off opening price' (a market profile concept) as confirmation of that bullish roadmap.

 

I did a long-side trade and made some money this morning. Then later did a short-side trade and made a lot on that one. I then stopped trading though I really could have tried another long as my oscillators were extended to downside just as we re-entered that high-volume 1505 congestion zone. In retrospect on the day, I am pleased but feel I did miss a good long on Russell this morning -- but that is ok.

 

For tomorrow, here would be the my guidelines:

 

If today were a buy day -- I would actually look to go long on the day after a buy day if we test down 'first.' An obvious spot would be a test down into the high-volume 1505 area -- looking for a morning reversal and a range expansion type of move up. If we test up first tomorrow and it was a buy day, then I will look to short, should price action favor that (ie, not something like strong upward range expansion off opening price on big volume). I don't really see an obvious high-volume zone right now to short into so this might be tricky. But Taylor could also do a short on a move above todays high tomorrow -- so that is a possibility.

 

If today were a sell day -- tomorrow would be a sell-short day and we would look to short above todays high. No longs on a sell short day so that would not be an option. This is what you (WHY?) called today -- a sell day -- making tomorrow a sell-short day. Will just have to see.

 

If today were a sell-short day, making tomorrow a buy-day -- then we could go long on a viloation of todays low or on a 'higher bottom'. We could also go short on a 'high made first' type of set-up where we violate todays high tomorrow.

------------

 

Here is the funny thing, even if you don't know how to count Taylor days -- you have a 2 in 3 chance of being consistent with Taylor if you just look to buy on a test lower (lower low or higher bottom). And you have a 3 in 3 chance of being consistent with Taylor if you look to short a test of a previous high -- since shorting is allowed on any of the 3 days. Thus, the only time you will be out of sync with Taylor is the time you are going long right into a sell short-day. Does that make sense? You don't really have to count days -- you just have to be a good short-term trader and follow those basic rules and you 'can' be right 5 out of 6 times... I say this only because I can honestly say I don't understand how Taylor is counting days yet. I can 'try' -- but I just can't get definititive answers about how you KNOW this or that day was what.

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I didn't say anything about going back 3 months so I am not sure what you mean by this last post
. The three months statement had absolutely nothing to do with anything you have said and I didn't mean it to come across that way. I was trying to get the point over that what is more important is the closer action and it wouldn't matter if rephasing changed an orginal Taylor buy day to say a sell day that happened 3 months ago, or even say 1 month ago. That is all.

 

I was just asking if you thought today might have been action consistent enough with a 'buy day' to change your thinking for tomorrow. You mentioned today was a sell day and therefore tomorrow would be a 'sell short day' in which longs are not consistent with Taylor. Again, I am just curious on how you interpreted todays action with how it relates for tomorrow. I may very well go long tomorrow -- or I may not -- I am just trying to understand any 'adjustments' made in how you are thinking about it.
Taylor would maintain that tomm 11-23 will be a Short sell day IF he had been trading this stock for say 4 or 5 weeks.

 

Today worked out well. We moved below the previous day low and could therefore use the previous day low plus a bit more as a target. This was 1505+ on the S&P futures -- call it 1505-1510.

 

This was a nice target to have (1505+) because I had no other pivot to work with given the trend-down nature of Fridays action. There was no real zone to short into -- therefore I favored the long-side early. I had the Taylor method as a roadmap and we had 'upside range expansion off opening price' (a market profile concept) as confirmation of that bullish roadmap.

 

I did a long-side trade and made some money this morning. Then later did a short-side trade and made a lot on that one. I then stopped trading though I really could have tried another long as my oscillators were extended to downside just as we re-entered that high-volume 1505 congestion zone. In retrospect on the day, I am pleased but feel I did miss a good long on Russell this morning -- but that is ok.

Great! Glad Taylor is perhaps helping you fine tune. Every bit helps!

 

For tomorrow, here would be the my guidelines:

 

If today were a buy day -- I would actually look to go long on the day after a buy day if we test down 'first.' An obvious spot would be a test down into the high-volume 1505 area -- looking for a morning reversal and a range expansion type of move up. If we test up first tomorrow and it was a buy day, then I will look to short, should price action favor that (ie, not something like strong upward range expansion off opening price on big volume). I don't really see an obvious high-volume zone right now to short into so this might be tricky. But Taylor could also do a short on a move above todays high tomorrow -- so that is a possibility.

Nothing wrong with that thinking! Actually, by rephasing via taylor 10 day deal and calling 10-23 a Taylor buy day you have just created two possible opportunities for yourself. A short (probable because of the high close today 10-22) and then cover and go long on decline IF made early in the session. However, I would take care on that long. We got a little strenght back in the market today but it is still an extremely weak market. I wouldn't ride any long up too far unless the intraday tape tomm shows alot of strenght coming back into the market. If you take a long position tomm and market is grudgingly going up and it is getting in the afternoon I wouldn't hold that long for selling on 10-24 (as would be normal) but I would cinch my profits before the day closed. A weak close on a buy day is not good news for a long position. As Taylor would say "cinch" your profits.

 

If today were a sell day -- tomorrow would be a sell-short day and we would look to short above todays high. No longs on a sell short day so that would not be an option. This is what you (WHY?) called today -- a sell day -- making tomorrow a sell-short day. Will just have to see.
Yep, you got it. I will stick with Taylor on this one and call it a SS day. If the market would have showed more strenght today 10-22 I might would rephase (using Taylors 10 day guideline or my software rephase) and see if it would change tomm to a buy day. If it did I would be giving myself 2 opportunities. But since the market was stronger than 10-19 but still weak I'll stick to my SS bias for 10-23.

 

If today were a sell-short day, making tomorrow a buy-day -- then we could go long on a viloation of todays low or on a 'higher bottom'. We could also go short on a 'high made first' type of set-up where we violate todays high tomorrow.
That is correct. But to make it more precise; To go long it must do so early in the session. You wouldn't want to go long if it made the low at the end of the session tomm 11-23 even if tomm is a buy day. Also to short tomm if you call it a buy day that opportunity must present itself early in the session. You would not short on a buy day high made last for you would be bucking the trend.

 

Here is the funny thing, even if you don't know how to count Taylor days -- you have a 2 in 3 chance of being consistent with Taylor if you just look to buy on a test lower (lower low or higher bottom). And you have a 3 in 3 chance of being consistent with Taylor if you look to short a test of a previous high. Thus, the only time you will be out of sync with Taylor is the time you are going long right into a sell short-day. Does that make sense? You don't really have to count days -- you just have to be a good short-term trader and follow those basic rules and you 'can' be right 5 out of 6 times... I say this only because I can honestly say I don't understand how Taylor is counting days yet. I can 'try' -- but I just can't get definititive answers about how you KNOW this or that day was what.
Interesting eh??

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If you like name a individual stock or two in tc2000 you would like to track and/or the QQQQ and I will help in that area. I suggest get a decent price stock that has good volume and also out of curiosity pick a stock under 1.50 share (from .20 to 1.50) that has at least 100,000 shares on average (more is better) a day and doesnt trade in highly defined range, and we will track it

 

Hello WHY?

 

Thank you very much! A suggestion or two from me for the larger picks would be the QQQQ, CAT or GE. I like your idea for a small priced pick. First, I ran a scan for all stocks in the universe having a price between $.20 and $1.50 with a 30 days simple moving average of volume over 100,000. That scan provided about 120 stocks. So, I increased the volume to 500,000 and that provided the following:

 

ASTM CMGI CNXT CPST CRGN DVW ENCY GNTA IMH INPC INSM MCZ MGRM

MOVI NGEN NWD ONT OPTV POTP PTN QTWW REV SNUS TOA TXCC VG ZHNE

 

If you don’t mind, perhaps you could take a peek at a few of these and pick the one you think would be a good candidate. You would have a much better eye for this than me.

 

Most kind of you sir. Thanks and take care,

 

Gary

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Hello WHY?

 

Thank you very much! A suggestion or two from me for the larger picks would be the QQQQ, CAT or GE. I like your idea for a small priced pick. First, I ran a scan for all stocks in the universe having a price between $.20 and $1.50 with a 30 days simple moving average of volume over 100,000. That scan provided about 120 stocks. So, I increased the volume to 500,000 and that provided the following:

 

ASTM CMGI CNXT CPST CRGN DVW ENCY GNTA IMH INPC INSM MCZ MGRM

MOVI NGEN NWD ONT OPTV POTP PTN QTWW REV SNUS TOA TXCC VG ZHNE

 

If you don’t mind, perhaps you could take a peek at a few of these and pick the one you think would be a good candidate. You would have a much better eye for this than me.

 

Most kind of you sir. Thanks and take care,

 

Gary

Do you know how to create a watch list in TC 2000? If so you can be a help to me and save me some time. Create a watch list and call it Taylor. Put in all the stocks in your list above. Next export this to a file. Here is how I need you to export it from within Tc2000.

 

Exporting Stock Data to a file T2000

 

Download end of day data from wordens 40 minutes or and hour after the market closes. Select the Taylor watch list that has the stocks you put in there (this is very important as you only want the data for these stocks to be exported not on all 10,000 stocks). Next click on Databank at top then "export to text". Again verify that the "List to Export" now says "Export Taylor". Next instructions are VERY important. Follow them exactly. You should only have to do the following data field setup onetime not each day. You have clicked on "Export to Text" and you are at the export screen and have made sure that the list to export is the "Export Taylor list" Now to set up the data fields. Under "Available Data Fields" one by one select the below data fields and click the "add" button. You will have to do this for each field one by one. Select ONLY these fields and make sure they appear in ORDER in the right side of the screen: open, high, low, close, volume, symbol, company name, exchange, and the last field called Date YYYYMMDD. DO NOT select any other of the field options. Next click on "single file" and in the blank space type in this name for it: taylor.txt

 

Next select 40 days for the amount of data, then select the drive and directory where you plan to export it. Send it to a place you can readily find it such as C: or desktop. Next select "descending". Click on export. In just a few seconds it will export 40 days of data for all the stocks in your Taylor watch list. Email this file as an attachment to me. I am sending my email address to you via private mail. This is what I need you to do each day 1 hour after market closes (to give worden time to uodate all the data). Logon and update worden. Then export that tayor watchlist each day and send it to me. That will save me alot of time. Let me know of you can do this.

 

Thanks

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Just sent it.

 

Do you know how to create a watch list in TC 2000? If so you can be a help to me and save me some time. Create a watch list and call it Taylor. Put in all the stocks in your list above. Next export this to a file. Here is how I need you to export it from within Tc2000.

 

Exporting Stock Data to a file T2000

 

Download end of day data from wordens 40 minutes or and hour after the market closes. Select the Taylor watch list that has the stocks you put in there (this is very important as you only want the data for these stocks to be exported not on all 10,000 stocks). Next click on Databank at top then "export to text". Again verify that the "List to Export" now says "Export Taylor". Next instructions are VERY important. Follow them exactly. You should only have to do the following data field setup onetime not each day. You have clicked on "Export to Text" and you are at the export screen and have made sure that the list to export is the "Export Taylor list" Now to set up the data fields. Under "Available Data Fields" one by one select the below data fields and click the "add" button. You will have to do this for each field one by one. Select ONLY these fields and make sure they appear in ORDER in the right side of the screen: open, high, low, close, volume, symbol, company name, exchange, and the last field called Date YYYYMMDD. DO NOT select any other of the field options. Next click on "single file" and in the blank space type in this name for it: taylor.txt

 

Next select 40 days for the amount of data, then select the drive and directory where you plan to export it. Send it to a place you can readily find it such as C: or desktop. Next select "descending". Click on export. In just a few seconds it will export 40 days of data for all the stocks in your Taylor watch list. Email this file as an attachment to me. I am sending my email address to you via private mail. This is what I need you to do each day 1 hour after market closes (to give worden time to uodate all the data). Logon and update worden. Then export that tayor watchlist each day and send it to me. That will save me alot of time. Let me know of you can do this.

 

Thanks

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For 10-23

CRGN is an SS day - short at or near 1.00 - 1.02 if opens normal cover around .96

 

GNTA - Sell day - if it trades under 1.05 by noon go long on a bv when it bottoms. Sell long same day on any rally thru 1.05 to 1.08.

 

IMH - SS day - short near 1.06 /1.07 if it makes it there grudgingly by 11:30. If it starts up fast early in session hold off and short at a higher point. This stock can do that. Otherwise, do nothing on this one. No longs. Cover on any decline the same day.

 

MCZ - Buy Day - short on any penetration of 1.18 early in session but watch tape! Cover on any decline to around 1.09 to 1.10. iF it does all this by 12:00 then take a long postion around 1.08 /1.09 after covering your short. Watch the tape on this one.

 

 

Will send some more later. Gotta sleep.

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just my 2 cents:

 

individual stocks are loaded with 'chaos' in the short-run. I think you are better off sticking to liquid ETFs that don't have futures contracts attached to them. The ones I have been studying are EEM (emerging markets ETF trading 10-20 million shares per day) and XLF (the financial ETF which has been trading 60 million shares per day). The Brazil Index (EWZ) is also very active. XLE, the energy ETF, is very active but I just don't like the way it trades.

 

with ETF's, you will never have to worry too much about some individual stock rumor that will cause the instrument to drop -5 or -10 or -20% out of nowhere. just my opinion.

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XLE, the energy ETF, is very active but I just don't like the way it trades.

 

.

 

If you like to trade classical patterns, XLE has many clearly cut patterns on an intraday basis. I find it has less shakeouts probably due the fact it is driven by both equity and oil prices.

Sector ETFs as whole are good candidates for Taylor type of analysis

" Sector rotation = Big money manipulation."

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yah, sweet move off the violation of previous day high.

 

1505 is high-volume zone so no more shorting for me if/when it goes near there.

As Tayor would say it "penetrated" the previous days high and made the objective! If it hits 1505 area you looking to go long or call it a day?

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no, looking long potentially before 1505 -- just no more shorting if it goes that low.
Are you doing multiple shorting? Shorting intraday rallies ...covering on declines as it moves down?

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Just an update on the pennies trading taylor style

 

CRGN made target for shorting at 1.00. Wait for the decline to .97 or .96. Try to capt .03 anyway. It is hard to find a broker that will let you short stocks under 5.00 share but I am doing this so folks can see how taylor works on the pennies.

 

GNTA - No play today. Did not make a BV early

 

IMH - Short at 1.06 out .99 10,000 shares X .07 $700.00 or 5000 shares X .07 = 350.00. Not bad to make this on a penny stock. You just borrowed it for a couple of hours or so.

 

MCZ - short at 1.17 waiting to cover around 1.10 to 1.12.

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<<Are you doing multiple shorting? Shorting intraday rallies ...covering on declines as it moves down?>>

 

well, I only do a few trades a day...

 

I play:

1) the FIRST pullback in what I think is a new move

2) a good 'a-b-c' corrective pattern if the original move appears to have residual momentum

3) I fade moves when my oscillators are extended as we enter a 'high-volume' zone.

 

Those are my basic trades. Across ES, YM, NQ, ER2... a few trades set-up every day. I do miss some and that is frustrating.

 

Basically, I am just trying to do what everyone else is -- synchronize 2 timeframes. For you, it seems to be the Taylor/3-day type of timeframe with a 'micro-timeframe' -- you call it 'the tape' -- but same thing.

 

For me this is:

 

1) A Daily/Taylor type of timeframe with a very short-term timeframe (like you)

or

2) A very short-timeframe with an intermediate timeframe like a 15-min chart

or

3) A breakout from an area of known 'balance' - this is when daily and 15-min charts are both indicating the same thing --- both are 'coiled up' and ready for a directional move.

 

Some trades I will just play for a few points. Other trades I will scalp off some of it early and get a free ride for a bigger move.

 

I have opened a second futures account to try to trade some things with 'higher timeframe' hold -- more like trade just small size and look for the next 20-40 pt move on something like RUS.... not there yet though.

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OK, I am revealing my trade secret here:

(1) If prices stay above VWAP most of the day = Buy Day

(2) If prices oscillates above and below VWAP most of the day = Sell Day

(3) If prices stay below VWAP most of the day = Sell Short Day

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<<OK, I am revealing my trade secret here:>>

 

lol, there are no secrets -- just valid concepts.

 

here is my secret:

 

if todays VWAP > yesterdays VWAP, a big correction is a potential buy.

 

if todays VWAP < yesterdays VWAP, look for hard down - ie, downside range expansion off opening price... also look for 'low made first'

 

thus,

VWAP > VWAP[1] is most consistent with a 'sell day' (buy on weakness)

VWAP < VWAP[1] might be a 'buy day' if 'low made first'

 

most important:

be careful if 'range expansion off opening price'

and

be very wary of 'high made first' :)

and

err on the side of bullishness -- the market most of the time goes up -- or it drops quickly

if its not dropping quickly, odds are its going to go up soon.

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example of a 'set-up':

 

this is trying to enter for a move down on a 'high made first' day. The market has corrected UP on a 15-min timeframe with A-B-C type of 'structure'

 

see chart

5aa70e14404a1_Oct23RUSabc.thumb.png.d6966334be896a6ca208b7002e771287.png

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    • Date : 12th December 2019. Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.   Policy unchanged Projections unlikely to change much Clues about review sought Style in focus Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Remains Biased To The Downside   USDJPY faces further price weakness despite its price hesitation on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance comes in at 109.00 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 109.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 110.00 level on a break of that area, A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 110.50. On the downside, support lies at the 108.00 level where a break will target the 107.50 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 107.00 level and then lower towards the 106.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further downside threats.        
    • Sterling Advances Barely Hours To UK Elections As Latest Poll Predicts Conservatives Win In just two days from now, a major event that will set the trend for the currency market for the year 2020, the UK elections will be held. In the face of a Brexit extension, UK prime minister had pushed for an earlier election in the hopes of having a majority conservatives win in the parliament which will make the Brexit deal pass through easily. As the clock ticks, with barely less than 48 hours to this epochal event, the newest poll by Survation conducted for ITV’s good morning Britain show predicts a Boris Johnson win by 14 pts. ahead of Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour party. The Brexit deal seemed to give the conservatives an edge as it accounted for 32% of the vote decision while NHS gave Labour party a slight edge. On the overall, a majority vote of 42% was predicted for the conservatives while Labour had 28%. Market Reaction as the Clock Ticks Optimism looms in the market as the prediction of a conservatives win will ease Britain’s exit from Europe by January 31 deadline. The EUR/GBP pair continued to fall till the early hours of today breaking the 0.8411 trend line targeting the 0.8149 resistance level. GBP/USD pair rebounded to consolidate briefly targeting 1.3381 resistance levels. Technical analysis within a 4-hour MACD shows that both pairs may likely touch down. CAD edged slightly higher advanced by USMCA news but yet to consolidate gains. The USD against a basket of five major currencies held steady awaiting FOMC’s minutes due out tomorrow. Against a basket of currencies, NZD’s dominance is the highest. Sterling also gained momentum firmed up by approaching UK elections. The safe-haven, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc remain pressured as major events that will shape the market for 2020 are been anticipated. On the Asia side, significant market activity wasn’t recorded as most currency pairs held steady within a day’s range. In the Asian stock market, not so much activity was recorded being weakened by recently released Chinese PMI numbers. Most of the indexes closed a little lower while US stocks rose swiftly after Friday’s release of US non-farm payroll reports. The outcome of the December 15 deadline set by the US for the signing of a preliminary trade pact will determine the week’s direction and even further into the year 2020. Also due out later in the week is UK GDP figures and ZEW released out of Germany.
    • Date : 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented.  The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”. The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond. USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Holds At The Bottom, Is The Consolidation Ongoing?   Key Resistance Levels: $275, $300, $325 Key Support Levels: $200, $160, $120 BCH/USD Price Long-term Trend: Ranging Bitcoin Cash had been trading in the large price range between the levels of $200 and $240. Presently, the coin is now fluctuating at the bottom of the chart. In retrospect, the bulls break the $240 resistance line and reached a high of $310. The coin was resisted as BSH drops back to a range-bound zone. The bears tested the low at $200 but there was a pulled back. The pullback was a correction as the upward move was stopped at $227. BCH is trading between the low at $200 and $227. The bulls are now having difficulty to move upward because of the resistance at $227. Conversely, the bears have failed to break the low of $200. Daily Chart Indicators Reading: The Fibonacci tool indicates that the coin reverses at the 1.272 extension level. BCH will resume the downtrend if the downtrend line or the support line is broken below. The RSI period 14 level 35 is indicating that the price is falling. BCH/USD Medium-term bias: Ranging On the 4-hour chart, the coin is fluctuating between the levels of $200 and $220. The bulls tested and broke the $220 price level but fell back to the range-bound zone. The price is trading below the $227 resistance level; a break is being expected shortly. 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The market is trading above the 20% range of the daily stochastic. This signifies that BCH is in a bullish momentum. The blue and red lines are trending horizontally indicating that price is fluctuating. General Outlook for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Cash is still confined within the price range of $200 and $240. Presently, BCH is in a tight range; a break above $227 will move price to the high of $240. Nevertheless, a break below $200 may weaken the coin to a low of $160. Bitcoin Cash Trade Signal Instrument: BCHUSD Order: buy Entry price: $203 Stop: $175 Target: $241 Source: https://learn2.trade 
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