Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Blaze

How do you determine a breakout from a false breakout?

Recommended Posts

I would like to know how one can determine if the breakout is legit or false. I have been caught plenty of times buying a false breakout just to be stopped out seconds after my entry.

 

Is there a way to know before hand if the breakout will be valid? I would also like to know trading strategies to play breakouts.

 

Thank you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would like to know how one can determine if the breakout is legit or false. I have been caught plenty of times buying a false breakout just to be stopped out seconds after my entry.

 

Is there a way to know before hand if the breakout will be valid? I would also like to know trading strategies to play breakouts.

 

Thank you

 

You can try using Bollinger Bands. When they become narrow, there is a chance price will breakout in either direction.

 

Also the NR7 tactic. If the price range is minimum for the last 7 days, the breakout is likely to be real.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would like to know how one can determine if the breakout is legit or false. I have been caught plenty of times buying a false breakout just to be stopped out seconds after my entry.

 

Is there a way to know before hand if the breakout will be valid? I would also like to know trading strategies to play breakouts.

 

Thank you

 

I had a similar problem playing breakouts so I stopped playing them. Try timing your entries on the pullbacks instead. It is a more conservative approach but less riskier.

 

Many time the low or high will be taken out by a few points just to reverse. I think alot of newbies will get caught in this move. They like to short new lows. However, you need to give it a little room (few ticks) to determine whether the breakout is valid or not.

 

Good luck

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will usually wait for a pullback when playing breakouts. Most of my breakouts are done around pivot points and value area. I do have one exception: I have found the TRIN range breakout to be one of the most powerful breakout setups.

 

Find the range of the TRIN during the morning session. If in the afternoon session the TRIN makes a new high or low, this can act as a leading signal for price to breakout. Remember the TRIN and price have a inverse relationship. If TRIN makes new highs, look to short price. If TRN makes new lows, look for a long setup. I find this setup to work particularily well in the late afternoon session.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I will usually wait for a pullback when playing breakouts. Most of my breakouts are done around pivot points and value area. I do have one exception: I have found the TRIN range breakout to be one of the most powerful breakout setups.

 

Find the range of the TRIN during the morning session. If in the afternoon session the TRIN makes a new high or low, this can act as a leading signal for price to breakout. Remember the TRIN and price have a inverse relationship. If TRIN makes new highs, look to short price. If TRN makes new lows, look for a long setup. I find this setup to work particularily well in the late afternoon session.

 

Do you know if this strategy will work with equities as well? From my understanding you trade only futures?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say I trade 90% futures, 10% stocks.

 

I don't see why the TRIN breakout would not work for stocks. I suggest testing this out first. I use this strategy for futures only.

 

One similar strategy you can use for equities is TICK range breakouts. I know many stock traders who use this strategy. Anytime you have the TICK stuck in a 2 hour range, watch for new TICK highs or lows. The setup is to go with the TICK breakout.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

normally, when you enter into a breakout you are risking. Why? because you are buying expensive. so, buy cheap and sell expensive. wait for pullbacks, as easy at this. another point to value if a breakout is reliable or not is to watch volume bars. for example, if the volume bar is quite big at the time price is breaking out, it is possible that buyers are getting to the end of that trend and price is about to reversal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Vladv,

 

NR7 means narrowest range day for the pass 7 day. In trading this usually mean the next day has very good chance to be a big range day or trending day.

 

From my own experience, usually there may be a chance that the next day is also a NR7 day, but market will not stay in this contraction for long.

 

So if market end up with a NR7 day, then expect a bigger range day coming.

 

weiwei

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fwiw, the futures have been a "means reversion" market for the last few years, which means (generally speaking) fading extremes is more profitable than playing breakouts.

 

imo, premarket research is very very helpful for this type of thing. i would never consider trading the YM without first doing my research as to NR7 etc.

 

today (monday) was an NR7 day btw.

 

we had a 43 point range today, which is 1/3 our 40 day average range of 128.

 

volatility is much more cyclical (and predictable) than price.

 

today was ALSO an inside day.

 

hint #1: NR7

hint #2: inside day

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Breakout play, I think it is relative term. what one must pay attention is the location of the breakout. Not all breakout are the same.

 

The one that I pay attention is the prvious swing high or low on daily chart or 135m chart. The longer the time frame, the harder it is to break out of it.

 

one can take the top down approach on the concept to know how real this breakout will be. But one thing to be aware is that the bigger the time frame of the Resistance to breakout, the harder it is to catch.

 

Bcause smart money will usually push through it fast and furiously, then take profit to scare off people from entry.(flag formation). And guess what, to hide their intention, they will do it 2 to 3 times to scare people away, thus create false breakout.

 

It is best for people to get in on pull back, so you can look for foot print on if market really want to go up.

 

Remember, market is design that only 10% will make money out of it. So market will have to carry the least amount of people up or down to be profitable. So false breakout is one way to achieve that purpose.

 

weiwei

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Objectively a breakout fails if I have an entry signal and it hits the corresponding stops.

 

It may then be followed by another breakout which may or may not fail.

 

A breakout succeeds if I exit with a profit.

 

 

This is a traders answer not an analysts answer. Every trade is a combination of risk and reward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Objectively a breakout fails if I have an entry signal and it hits the corresponding stops.

 

It may then be followed by another breakout which may or may not fail.

 

A breakout succeeds if I exit with a profit.

 

This is a traders answer not an analysts answer. Every trade is a combination of risk and reward.

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

I like this answer a lot from a traders point of view.

 

Humble1: "So how does one determine [objectively] when a breakout fails? I have not seen this answered yet."

 

However, here's technical analysis point of view and one I seen elsewhere in another discussion.

 

A failed breakout occurs when prices retraces back through the breakout point, which can be different from one trader to another due to differences in the trade methodolgy, prior to the profit target being reached.

 

Its also possible for someone to trade the same breakout and designate it as a success while the other trader designates it as a failed breakout and that's why I like Kiwi's answer because it reflects what really happens most of the time.

 

For example, lets say two traders go Long when prices moves above a prior swing point of 547.00

 

One trader has a target of 2 point profit while the other is looking for 5 points.

 

Price then moves upwards and hits 550.00 with one trading exiting his position at 549.00 because he had a target of two points.

 

His stats will show the breakout was profitable but doesn't show if the breakout has failed.

 

Price then moves higher to 550.50 and then retraces back below the swing point of 547.00 to hit the stop of the other trader at 746.00

 

The stats of that particular trader will show the breakout resulted as a loss and has failed.

 

However, what if the price than quickly goes back up through that 547.00 swing point and reaches 560.00 and then continues higher into a trend development.

 

How do the stat guys categorize that breakout...

 

Did it fail or not?

 

Simply, via an actual trade point of view...a failed breakout can only be defined by profit or loss upon exiting the trade.

 

However, via a technical analysis point of view if it doesn't retrace for example a swing point breakout (there are different types of breakouts) that could be categorized as a breakout that didn't fail.

 

Yet, from a technical point of view...what about those breakouts that retrace a prior swing point and turn back around to go back through into the direction of the breakout.

 

I think the latter is what frustrates us traders the most.

 

My favorite type of breakouts are Volatility Breakouts but I won't go into it because it will take this thread into another direction (not on topic) and I can talk about this elsewhere here at Traderslaboratory.com if there's a discussion about such.

 

To answer the thread starter question...

 

Blaze: "I would like to know how one can determine if the breakout is legit or false. I have been caught plenty of times buying a false breakout just to be stopped out seconds after my entry."

 

One of the best ways to differenciate a breakout that is most likely (high probability) to fail as in to retest the breakout point...

 

Divergence.

 

Yet, although I like to trade one particular type of breakout...I still think its one of the toughest game in town.

 

Therefore, to be a successful breakout trader, you need to be able to recognize what causes them to fail and/or use a secondary strategy that involves fading breakouts.

 

Mark

(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term

 

"Volatility Analysis will open the door to consistent profits."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Objectively a breakout fails if I have an entry signal and it hits the corresponding stops.

 

It may then be followed by another breakout which may or may not fail.

 

A breakout succeeds if I exit with a profit.

 

 

This is a traders answer not an analysts answer. Every trade is a combination of risk and reward.

 

This is good. Makes sense.

 

Most breakouts will only retrace 40 to 50% of the initial move, if they retrace at all. Other will form a high tight flag just above the breakout, and then move fast. Volume needs to expand slightly to confirm the breakout. It also pays to know where major support and resistance is before hand... gaps that have never been tested have a high odds of stopping breakouts.

 

Good stuff. thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

would love if you guys could post charts of this concepts, imagining this concepts on a virtual chart on my head just gets the entire concept dificult to understand... nice thread indeed,but poor graphic examples.... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is good. Makes sense.

 

Most breakouts will only retrace 40 to 50% of the initial move, if they retrace at all. Other will form a high tight flag just above the breakout, and then move fast. Volume needs to expand slightly to confirm the breakout. It also pays to know where major support and resistance is before hand... gaps that have never been tested have a high odds of stopping breakouts.

 

Good stuff. thanks.

 

Humble1! Nice to have you on board. Insightful observation with concrete explanation as usual. Hope you can contribute more in the future!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Humble1! Nice to have you on board. Insightful observation with concrete explanation as usual. Hope you can contribute more in the future!

 

I'll post some charts on this, but for now, last week, ER2 [R2K mini] failed an ascending triangle on the 60 minute chart. Something very definite happened right after the breakout to setup the bearish tone. See if any of you can pick it out.

 

:cool:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought the 825 was the measured from the double bottom.

 

NEWBIE-TRADER-ER2-2007-04-13-DB-MEASURED-TARGET.gif

 

If you mean the last gasp on late Friday on new high with low volume, I think I see it. It closed at resistance, 825, top of the old unfilled gap. I've noticed close at resistance is usually a selloff the next morning. Might just be my bias though.

 

NEWBIE-TRADER-ER2-2007-04-15-TRIANGLE.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.