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How I Trade As If Price Is Random
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1a2b3cppp, in Technical Analysis
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Amid the bearish charge witnessed in Bitcoin (BTC) on Monday, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele revealed that the country bought the dip. El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law went into effect on September 7, making it the first sovereign nation to adopt the flagship cryptocurrency as legal tender. President Bukele announced via Twitter that his government acquired an additional 150 BTC with the dip. He tweeted that: BTC traded around $45,000 when Bukele made the announcement yesterday. However, the cryptocurrency has since dropped to the lower-$40,000 area, according to data from TradingView. Meanwhile, ATM tracking website Coinatmradar.com recently revealed that the North American nation now has 205 crypto ATM locations, the third-largest by a country (behind the US and Canada). The launch of the Chivo wallet, the country’s official crypto wallet, started with a rocky start. However, Bukele has assured that the Chivo app now operates in optimal capacity. Reports show that the full adoption of the Chivo app could cost remittance providers like Moneygram and Western Union over $400 million per annum. Last Friday, Bukele tweeted that about 1.1 million Salvadorans now use the Chivo wallet, adding that: “we haven’t enabled 65% of phone models yet.” Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch — September 21 BTC has fallen to a new monthly low of $40,140 following the industry-wide crash. The benchmark cryptocurrency now struggles to pick itself up and back to recent highs. Already, Bitcoin is on track to post a red monthly candle for September as it always has since it went mainstream. BTCUSD – 4-Hour Chart That said, we expect a steady rebound above the $44,000 mark and higher over the coming hours. Nonetheless, we could see a retest of the $41,000 mark if bulls fail to reclaim the $44,000 level soon. Meanwhile, our resistance levels are at $44,000, $44,400, and $45,000, and our key support levels are at $43,000, $42,000, and $41,000. Total Market Capitalization: $2.02 trillion Bitcoin Market Capitalization: $816 billion Bitcoin Dominance: 42.4% Market Rank: #1 Source: https://learn2.trade -
Ethereum price breaks moving averages resumes downward Ether targets the low of $2,082 Key Highlights Ethereum ETH) Current Statistics The current price: $2,908.05 Market Capitalization: $341,770,388,786 Trading Volume: $28,141,190,537 Major supply zones: $3,000, $3,500, $4,000 Major demand zones: $2,500, $2,000, $1,500 Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis September 22, 2021 Ethereum’s (ETH) price has fallen below the moving averages suggesting a further downward movement of the crypto. The bears have also broken below the previous low at $3,026 to another low of $2,656. As the biggest altcoin falls below the previous low, further downsides are likely. Meanwhile, on September 7 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 50 % Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that Ether will fall to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension or level $2,082.71. ETH/USD – Daily Chart ETH Technical Indicators Reading The crypto’s price is now below the moving averages which suggest that Ether is in the bearish trend zone. The altcoin is capable of falling in the bearish trend zone. Ether is at level 40 of the Relative Strength index period 14. It indicates that the altcoin is in the downtrend zone and below the centerline 50. The coin is above the 20% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the market is in the bullish trend zone. Conclusion Ethereum is likely to further decline as price breaks below the previous low at level $3,026. Nevertheless, the Fibonacci tool has further indicated a downward move to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension. ETH/USD – 4 Hour Chart Source: https://learn2.trade
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 24th September 2021. Market Update – September 24 – Yields Leap higher. Market News USD (USDIndex 93.10) weakened to Wednesday lows (92.94) post BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, CBRT, weak PMI’s & Claims and Evergrande missing interest payment deadline – AND no comments from the company. US Federal budget – stand-off continues. Yields stormed higher overnight (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) jumped 10bps to 1.434% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020) Equities rallied again over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +53 (+1.21%) at 4448. USA500.F lower at 4433. Dow +1.48%. NIKE & Costco beat Earnings. Asian mixed – Nikkei +2%, China lower. VIX tumbles again to 20.50 USOil continues to recover breaches $73.00 – GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter. Gold dropped to $1737 (31 day low) has recovered to $1755 now. Overnight – NZD trade balance tanked, JPY CPI & Manu & Services PMI all missed, UK Consumer Confidence halved (-13 vs -7). European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -24 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures. Norway kicked off rate hikes in Europe, BoE is also inching towards reduced stimulus which together with Fed tapering hints this week seems to have triggered a market shift. Stocks weren’t too spooked by the yields rise, but uncertainty over Evergrande’s USD coupon payments and lingering concern that China’s property boom could implode and the growth engine running out of steam has seen equity markets turning more cautious once again. DAX future currently down -0.1%, FTSE 100 future little changed. FX markets flat – Sterling holds up, JPY weaker – EURUSD at 1.1732 & Cable at 1.3725 USDJPY recovered to 110.50. Today – German IFO, US New Home Sales, FedSpeak Williams, Mester, Clarida, Powell, George, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Tenreyro. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.22%) 3 day rally from summer low at 149.40 continues after Hawkish BOE. spiked to 151.70 earlier. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 74.50 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 23rd September 2021. Market Update – September 23 – FOMC talk November Taper.Market News USD (USDIndex 93.52) rallies following FOMC – Taper possible from November, first rate rises now brought forward into 2022, Evergrande due to pay local bondholders today, shares rise in HK. Yields flattened as 5yr up 30 yr down – (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) trade at 1.329% now. Equities rallied over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). USA500 +41 (+0.95%) at 4395. USA500.F flat at 4396. Dow +1.00%, Nasdaq +1.02%. Nikkei (closed) & China higher. VIX tumbles to 21.62. USOil continues to recover broke $72.00 – inventories in line (-3.5m barrels). GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter Gold dropped to $1760 but has recovered to $1764. Overnight – FED Highlights – We now have 9 forecasts of a 2022 rate hike instead of 7, with 9 instead of 11 now expecting no change. From the dots, it’s clear that the large majority of policymakers want to start raising rates in late-2022 & get back to near-normal by 2024. GDP, saw trimmings for the Fed’s 2021 central tendency to 5.8%-6.0% from 6.8%-7.3%, 2021 headline and core PCE chain price central tendency boosts to 4.0%-4.3% and 3.6%-3.8% respectively. 2021 jobless rate central tendency boosts to 4.6%-4.8%. POWELL – “substantial further progress” has been met for inflation, but there is more uncertainty surrounding the maximum employment goal. Powell noted a split among the FOMC whether employment has improved satisfactorily. He thinks it has “all but been met”. Tapering “could end around the middle of next year.”AUD PMI’s stronger than expected but remain very weak (Services only 44.9).European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 21 ticks, the 30-year future meanwhile has moved higher with Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.5% with risk appetite strengthen post-Fed and amid easing concern on Evergrande, at least for now. In FX markets both EUR and pound strengthened against a steady to lower dollar. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the local central bank announcements from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank today. EURUSD at 1.1715 & Cable at 1.3653. USDJPY recovered to 109.86. BoE Preview: Expected to keep policy settings on hold, but minutes will be watched carefully especially with 2 new MPC members – Catherine Mann (Centrist) & Huw Pill (Hawkish). The central bank already signaled a more hawkish outlook on rates at the previous meeting, which to a certain extent pre-empted the jump in inflation and tightness in labour markets that were the key message of last week’s economic reports. However, retail sales numbers were pretty dismal & consumers are facing higher taxes as well as a phased out wage support, with the phasing out of the furlough scheme a key factor for the BoE’s policy decision going forward. On top of this the country is facing an energy crisis that is having unexpected knock on effects also for the food sector. The central scenario at the moment is for the labour market to remain tight & wage growth strong, as companies are increasingly forced to up wage offers to attract staff. Against that background, the first rate hike could come in H1 2022, depending on virus developments & how the energy market gets through the winter.Today – SNB, Norges Bank (rate hike likley), BoE, CBRT & SARB rate decisions, Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB’s Elderson.Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.38%) 3 days in row! Breaks two day high t 86.00 and rallied to 86.32 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 72.96 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
I'm gonna pull a crazyCzarina and reply to a long dead post ... One sure thing about trading forums - The great questions never get an answer. Ask even the greatest posters a great question... silence, no nothin’, not even crickets. First a few comments about Elliott Wave Wave Theory is a ‘science’ of socionomics. Socionomics is about how societal ideas ‘ideally’ or typically unfold - wave 1 is the early adapters, wave 3 is broad collective acceptance, wave 5 is continuing valuation narratives but with narrowing collective assessment of actual value... with all kinds of ‘ideal’ sub patterns... Socionomics starts with a simple observation: For lots of issues, how people FEEL influences how they will BEHAVE. (Equally true = How people BEHAVE influences how they will FEEL... but that’s for another topic) Anyways... Elliott Wave theory is an attempt to apply socionomics to trading - and yes analyst75 “theory” is the key word. Imo, it’s a jump too far. First, price is not a good metric for socionomics.... especially across decades when currencies are being viciously 'corrupted'. And practically, socionomics does not transfer over to trading nearly to the degree Ellioticians would like. It simply does not deliver enough of those ‘ideal’ sub patterns because crowds of traders’ behaviors and ‘feelings’ about pricing are not sufficient equivalents of broader collective behaviors / socionomic waves... ESPECIALLY as time frames shorten... (ie waves may appear to ‘fractal’ down ... but they really don’t.) If you’re going to use EW to trade, probably the most important point you can acknowledge is that 5 wave patterns are EXCEPTIONS to normal trading crowd behavior ie the best thing a 5 wave pattern indicates is that corrective patterns will soon resume. I’ve described it differently in other posts* ... but basically, at any given point in time it is possible to reasonably project that ANY freakin wave ‘count’ / pattern will enfold. It is just as reasonable to project that a nice 5 wave completion will go on to a nice 7 or 11 or 17 or whatever wave count as it is to project that the market will now have a ‘trend’ change. At the end of any nice 3 wave corrective pattern, either projecting a huge 5 wave pattern unfolding in the other direction or projecting a long flat congestive pattern or another 3 wave correction pattern... or... all are equally reasonable. Or, a pretty wave 1, 2, and 3 doesn’t not mean a pretty wave 5 will unfold. Ie it’s just as reasonable to count it over and project that the next sequence will be corrective or a 5 wave impulsive move in the opposite direction. etc etc ... to get back to the unanswered question - So what do you propose as an alternate? Long ago I read Hurst. In a short section of his book he mentioned it. It didn’t sink in. Then one day it really hit me. There is no Elliott wave sequence or any other ‘technical’ price pattern that cannot be better explained via ‘summation of cycles’ ... * fun example can be seen by searching for 'trading chaos by bill williams' thread on t2w ... TL is so special we don't even allow links to other trading forums? ... other snarky EW comments at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/7555-do-you-use-the-elliott-wave-to-trade/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-146022
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