ForexTraderX

Glad you liked the post... and I have my thoughts on your comment here, but as you say yourself...we arn't exactly talking about day trading any more.... but I don't think I can give you a real answer in this new hypothetical... because like most things in life, diversification comes with a cost. I mean, all things being equal, if you could keep your entire net worth in such a instrument, I would need to know what I give up to diversify... control? flexibiilty? interest rate? good credit rating? relative stability of one nation to the other.... etc... I suppose two such instruments issued by two different nations that were essentially "twins" of each other, meaning same basic GDP, credit rating, interest rate, fees, taxes, etc.... Then I probably would diversify between them both, as a hedge against largescale fradulent activity that could poentially render a crippling financial blow if when it is uncovered... but, it's never this straight across. In real life where most of us live... I would make sure the government issuing the bonds was stable enough (or the returns high enough) to justify the investment in the first place. If a nation met this criteria, I would choose the best of those that met it. It would be more of a "pass or fail" situation...and I'd likely choose from the ones who "passed", but also offered the best terms for my particular needs and situation. It really comes down to this. Knowing what you want, and knowing what you NEED... and knowing the difference between the two. Once you know this, an investment of any kind either fits the criteria, or it doesn't. If it fits all your needs, AND your wants... it doesn't mean that it's the perfect investment for you.... but it does mean that you can ignore all the outside noise, cliche's, "common knowledge" and other gibberish... because none of that matters to you anyway. All that matters is that your needs are all addressed, and hopefully you get a lot of your "wants" met as well. If this is the case with an investment, then really nothing else matters. FTX

Welll now Rump.... you can't put on heels and lingere, light all the candles in the house, but then just curl up in a ball at the edge of the bed and go to sleep now.... and ya can't just lead in like "oh man, I can't wait to see how I score... LOL!" and then not share how you score!! I bet you got "fun loving trader" or some other total sucky one like that. LOL J/K man. But I am now curious as to what you got :p FTX

ehh... no, I'm actually completely satisfied with my stop management as well as the entry and exit I took in the first NQ trade. Really, it was second trade that just never should have happened. The first attempt DID produce a profit for me, albeit small, it was controlled, and minimzed risk the entire time. The 2nd trade was just because I got a wild hair up my ass to click a button and see my bank account fluuctuate by a few dollars, with the hope of it ending in the positive more than the negative. Yeaaaa.... 2nd trade = total impulse mistake. FTX

Ya, I would normally do more explaining john, but I don't post in this thread more than a few days out of the month, and the main reason I posted anything was because I let the world know that I made money trading index futures today, and also to give an example to new visitors that it is in fact possible to make a trading decision (or 3) from your home computer, finish with 2 wins, 1 loss, and a profit of over $200 per contract after comissions. I like posting more information, because teaching is fun for me, as is sharing, and discussing subjects I enjoy with others who enjoy them.... buuuut.... had I taken the time to write up an explanation, the timestamp would have been totally skewed, and therefore less "authentic". I know, I sound pretty self centered and narcissistic eh! I'm not really, just honest, and I was feeling in a competitive mood and saw a chance to score a goal for team forextraderx. but, if I have enough time between seeing the opportunity and actually needing to take it, I WILL write up a more detailed analysis of why I took that trade, and what I saw that I liked, etc. To address the first ES trade though... I have been waiting for the 1400 level for a week now, because it is a major psych level, and it has been significant S/R in the past. Also, it was just a few ticks under the lows from yesterday, which tells me that liquidity will be found in the form of sell stops (anyone long from yesterday will most frequently put their stop at or just below the low of the day)... and when I saw price violate yesterdays low, but then rebound and start a very tight consolidation for more than 10 minutes, complete with above average volume appearing under bullish candles (green ones with long bodies) on a 1 min chart tells me that not only are the buy stops being absorbed by a market participant (or several informed participants...whatever) who has an even larger buy order at or very near that price... thus, in a sense, it showed me "big money" tipping it's hand as to what it's intentions were. So I bought. Then, the move up to the target point was easy...essentially the move down from 1407ish to 1403ish and was made in a single burst of momentum. This requires agressive active sellers who are dumping using "market" orders, and a relatively fewer number of contracts available to fill those sell orders as limit orders. This creates a zone of low density order fill (I like to call it low density commitment), and thus when price starts to push back up through this zone, the relative lack of traders who became committed to a position at that range of prices between 1403ish and 1407ish would imply that a disproportionally small amount of "losing traders" would feel compelled to cover (because there just weren't many trades execucted at the 1403-1407 zone, compared to immediately above and below, therefore, there are just not many losers....and this matters, because it's the losing trader that needs to cover their position more than any other trader) so, low liquidity zone = less trades happened there = less losing traders = less orders to work through as price moves back up from 1403-1407 = price hitting 1407ish is basically a done deal = my target for is 1407ish. FTX

Ehh... bad trade. closed it out for a 3 point loss in the NQ

Got long 1 more time in the NQ right now... at 2656.50. 10 point stop, 10 point target

Stopped out on my NQ long for an 8 tick profit. Probably done for the day. 5 points profit in the ES, and 2 points in the NQ FTX

Stop moved up to 2652.5 - now locked in 2 points of profit.

Stop moved up to 2646 on my NQ long trade...

Long the NQ at 2650.50...stop below the low of teh day...target is open for now...but proably 1.2660+

closed ES at 1407 - 5 points profit

Got long the ES at 1402

Also, I got a small long entry on the EUR/USD. I read ealier that stops are resting around 1.2950ish... but part of my postiion has stops somewhat below that price...so even if there is further downside movement, I'll make a profit on this as long as the euro doens't fall apart and plunge through the lows it established over the last 24 hours (wihich is unlikely, given the better than expected U.S. data numbers) FTX

Well, it would have been nicer for my trades to see the U.S numbers be a little worse than they were.... but I'm still fairly confident that this will be the leg up in the USD/CAD that moves us into parity. Time will tell, but so far, things are looking about how I would expect them to look...which is decent At this point, the only trade that I'm really wondering about is the EUR/AUD long... I would like to see it push back up to at least 1.2520...which is about 15 pips above whre it currently is at. if we can do that in the next couple hours, then i'll look OK If we can't do that by the close or london or near the close of the U.S session...well, then I will know that they likelyhood of it becoming a successful trade is very slim indeed. FTX

Also, seems we have some pretty significant news for the U.S coming out in about 15-20 minutes. My expectation is that the USD/CAD will sell off between 15-35 pips, and the AUD/USD will push up quickly about to about 1.0410... but after that initial low liquidity push... the USD will start to gain on both and will likely continue this trend into the end of the london session. Not exactly sure if this is how it'll all play out, but this is where my bet is.

Well, i'm currently long in the USD/CAD, from around 0.9905, and the EUR/CAD from around 1.2885ish... I also have that EUR/AUD long still going, but i'm starting to think it may not work out as I would like... time will tell, but regardless, I am happy with my overall prospects here.

Ahh... but you forgot to include a chart of copper futures (daily chart is good enough... but if i'm going long in the ES...I like to see an upward daily trend in copper futures). you also failed to mention the ES/DAX/BUND/EURO connection. Basically, the DAX, the ES, the EUR/USD, and the 10 year German Bund YIELDS are all positively correlated. (not to mention U.S. bond/note yields of course) When correlated markets are all supporting the "expected" movement of one another, you can combine this with some longer term trends, and some intraday technical levels...and trading actually becomes kind of stupid easy. As long as you don't get stupid, or think it's too easy of course :p FTX

Well...i'm liking the EUR/AUD long setup mroe and more as the day rolls on. I've got a decent position in it now... and would love to see price develop in such a way that doesn't shake me out early...because I feel if this can break out, we could move 80-100 pips up easy. right now, at 1.2534...my entries have been between 1.2511 and 1.2535

Here's an update of what I think will likely be the best trading opportunity for the next session or so. CHeck out the picture to see exactly what levels I"m looking at for an entry price.

Ahh well, fair enough. I understand where your coming from. Well, maybe someone else can benefit from the explanation then.... if only by learning what NOT to do...lol. FTX

Well, that's just the thing Ingot... it's that not that I forget exactly...it's that I psych myself out near the end of the month it seems, and therefore elect to skip the competition. Of course, that whole "psyched out" feeling goes away usually after the first week of the next month... and then I regret not signing up. So I think i'm not gonna talk about it anymore. I'm either going to do it, or I won't... but I'm tired of publically airing my own psych challenges, lol. Btw.... do u have the signup link Ingot? FTX

As a follow up the my post above... I've done a fairly detailed analysis on a few different counter trend trading opportunities... and I believe all but one pretty much worked out... Anyway, here is a post I made in my thread that gives the "cliff notes" version, for anyone who is interested in seeing other examples besides the USD/CAD I discussed already... http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/13737-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-50.html#post164600 FTX

This is a list of some of the more detailed posts I made regarding various longer term opportunities in the currency markets. All but one of these opportunities played out (or is in the process of playing out) pretty much how I speculated that they would. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/13737-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-23.html#post160945 this goes into two opportunities that I saw in two seperate markets. One worked out extremely well (and is still working out in fact.) The other... basically totally failed. But, I think it gives a good idea of how I look at the markets. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/13737-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-28.html#post162540 my lower line was within 20 pips of the low for that next week, a low which saw a 250+ pip move up off that level. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/13737-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-31.html#post162744 A great GBP/USD short opportunity is mentioned here. We haven't retested that price again since. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/2/31834d1349455614-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-aud-cad-long-opportunity.jpg 0.9925 was the low for almost 400 pips (and still going) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/13737-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-32.html#post162754 price touched the lowest resistance level, and reversed literally at 1.5900... Exactly as I mentioned in the post. It easily hit the target within a couple of days of touching and reversing off of 1.5900 Here's a link to the "results" chart: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/2/31872d1349681026-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-ga-short-update.jpg http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/13737-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-39.html#post163455 here is a post that goes into some of the factors and my thinking regarding the CAD shorting opportunity. I posted this up on Oct 14th... so far, it'll all played out as I posted (so far. anything could happen of course)

Oddly, I don't get a sense of deliberate single minded focus in your tone that I would expect from "difficult". I DO however get a sense of uncertainty from you, as well as the obvious frustration... which leads me to conclude that really your in one of just 3 possible situations: 1. You don't really have a good understanding of what support and resistance levels are very likely to hold, and which ones are likely to just break away once the market touches them. If this is your situation, I would suggest you check out No Brainer Trades - Trading Forex and Other Markets Using Globally Identifiable Actions - Look around, and you'll find some great articles about support and resistance, and what to factor in when determining if a level is probably going to hold, or if it's probably going to give away and have price rip right through it. 2. You have allowed yourself to become very emotionally charged up during a recent trade (or series of recent trades) to the point where you went both long and short probably many times at the same level and around the same period of time.... and with each time you changed your mind, you felt more out of control, and more discouraged about your trading abilities. If this is the case, I suggest giving yourself some rules to follow regarding order entry, and executions. Even if you change your rules every single day...this could still be workable as long as you've considered how much your rules allow you to risk, and that you will be able and willing to follow your rules that trading day. Over time, with experience, you will find a better way to determine what parameters and risk amounts you are "comfortable with"...but until you have the experience to do so... your going to need to start with some hard rules on a daily basis. 3. You've probably lost a lot of money (or at least what felt like a lot of money to you).... and this further compounded the hopeless and/or disappointing feeling you experinced when you were totally confused and frustrated by the markets price action. If this is the case, you need to STOP TRADING WITH REAL MONEY RIGHT NOW. That is a pressure that can literally drive some to suicide, and you are clearly not anywhere close to being prepared to handle the additional pressures of real money. Nor does it sound like you have a significant edge at the momenth... though it seems you have some basic understanding of price action, and S/R...so you wlll likely get there if you want it bad enough. But until you can papertrade with some real, sustained success (probably at least a few months....ideally 6 months or more)... than trading with real money is only going to intensify your emotions...especially the bad emotions. Take away the money, and this will take away much of the emotion. It will put you in a place where you can keep a relaxed, open mind, which is what you need most of all now as you try to learn how to read the markets, and profit from the opportunities that arise. Good luck. You'll need it, and a whole lot more... but if you really want this, it's very possible for many people. FTX

Oh...I should also includ ethe EUR/AUD as a potential, viable long opportunity. I've already taken profits on the lowest entry at 1.2511ish... and closed out the rest that was on it for a very small loss. Now, I'm back in a small position, but I'm really confliced on this trade over all. Mainly because the AUD has been so strong, but it is approaching a pretty critical inflection poin,t, and I expect a stall, if not a minor pullback. That should be enough to provide the EUR/AUD enough of a boost to take some profits on the position I have now. But, it's myh least favorite. USD/CAD long or EUR/CAD long are my 2 favorites.