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SIUYA
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Everything posted by SIUYA
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I have not read the book but you can get excerpts here http://infofpas.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/excerpts-fpas-hr-3-6-121.pdf it looks like an enjoyable read that might not tell you much new if you have experience. It might just reinforce some ideas, introduce a different take on things, but i think it will mainly repeat the advice that there is no substitute for screen time, patience and focus, context and the dreaded discipline when it comes to scalping. I would imagine there is nothing really new in here if you have been around long enough. for $40, if it is a good read, recommended by others - and you are into scalping, or new to trading then on a quick perusal it looks good, with out too many absolutes and 'truths' eg "This example gives to show that the 20ema, no matter how faithful a companion, should not be looked upon as an absolute"
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in the meantime......... There are 5 houses in 5 different colors in a row. In each house lives a person with a different nationality. The 5 owners drink a certain type of beverage, smoke a certain brand of cigar, and keep a certain pet. No owners have the same pet, smoke the same brand of cigar, or drink the same beverage. Other facts: 1. The Brit lives in the red house. 2. The Swede keeps dogs as pets. 3. The Dane drinks tea. 4. The green house is on the immediate left of the white house. 5. The green house's owner drinks coffee. 6. The owner who smokes Pall Mall rears birds. 7. The owner of the yellow house smokes Dunhill. 8. The owner living in the center house drinks milk. 9. The Norwegian lives in the first house. 10. The owner who smokes Blends lives next to the one who keeps cats. 11. The owner who keeps the horse lives next to the one who smokes Dunhill. 12. The owner who smokes Bluemasters drinks beer. 13. The German smokes Prince. 14. The Norwegian lives next to the blue house. 15. The owner who smokes Blends lives next to the one who drinks water. The question is: WHO OWNS THE FISH?
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for those interested. Zdo - I know you mentioned your concerns about addictions. I watched "The house i live in" last night. Doco about the war on drugs. Every day, more people agree that the U.S. War on Drugs has failed? | The House I Live In If you take all the politics out, biases etc and view it purely from an economic/incentives point of view it makes it interesting - especially the conclusion of some in the last 20mins.
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smart cookie... this is a follow up article. Gun Buyback After Port Arthur | America Signals Gun Controls It also shows that it has not been a 'ban' of weapons as is often touted. They are still they, just harder for those wanting to get hold of them, and for many it becomes not worth it. If you want to be a responsible gun owner you obviously still can.
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I had read about the whole mathematics issues and complaints, and that was never my strong point. I thought a lot of that arguing had to do with the exact wording, and when choices were made etc....either that or the experts in probability really cant agree. the Wikipedia site explains it perfectly The intuitive part usually says you should not swap, but when you think about what the host is doing, then it changes everything. ..................... ............................ Re the Room change and $30..... jpennybags - your final answer is correct "The bellboy took $2.00 from the $5.00 owed the men... not from the original price of the rooms" - the maths you perform is not necessary. ............... The 30,$28 and $2 is a red herring....there is no missing $1 The tenants only ever pay either - $25 the original cost to the manager $30 the incorrect price or $27 --- the managers $25+$2 to the bell boy = total $29 ie; the bellboys $2 should either be added to the managers cost, OR subtracted from the total cost. This is how the government accounts for things.
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is the UK still considered part of Europe?
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Three men are travelling and get tired, so they decide to spend the night at a nearby inn. When they go to the front desk, the innkeeper charges them $30, ($10 each), and the three men go into their rooms and go to sleep. Then the innkeeper realizes that he was only supposed to charge the men $25 total, so he gives $5 to the bellboy to give to the men. But on the way to the men's rooms, the bellboy thinks to himself, "Hey, I've been so good, I deserve some money." So he keeps $2 and gives the remaining $3 to the men. Because they each get $1 back, they paid $9 instead of $10 each. But 3 x 9 = 27. But $30 - the taken $2 = $28. Where is the missing dollar? ......... Patucca - is bridge referring to the card game bridge, and the train, crossing, and around moves? No because you can drive a car across it. :doh:
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good point. Comparing the market to riots.... Maybe given the huge number of participants (hence the average might be similar), the common goal of making money and the huge influence of index trackers etc, maybe the population of the markets and the inputs is itself relatively static (apart from a few excessive times of volatility). As for the changing values of an asset, are not the morals/values/concerns of society also changing over time. Also isnt this one of the main points of the randomness arguments - be it crowds or markets. Why is it that normal event s can be triggered into abnormal events. For markets drifting away from value is normal, but being able to consistently proift from it should not be.
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This is a golden oldy the wise man said - the first camel to die will always be the last to reach the line by never doing so, so by riding the camels into the ground the first camel to die would never reach the finish line. Or alternatively..... he told them to swap camels and race each other, that way the camel that comes first means that the riders camel was more likely to finish last as it was beaten. ......................... ......................... For a probabilty puzzle, another golden oldie...... How many people must be gathered together in a room, before you can be certain that there is a greater than 50/50 chance that at least two of them have the same birthday?
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article today in Australia..... maybe the US should thank Australia for being an experiment - except of course they have different histories, culture and other issues. Australia reloads as gun amnesties fail to cut arms so for all those who trot out that crime is rising in Australia - the number of guns have increased again..Defeats your argument right?, or just shows the propaganda from both sides. .......Just pointing out the same old stuff about cause, effect and BS statistics. There are other issues. It would be interesting to see the whole research paper.
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when you change the definition of assault or theft between various countries you will get different results. If you touch a person in some countries you can be charged with assault. All BS really..... There is probably only one crime by definition that every country could agree on - homicide - the result is beyond doubt. (and even this might be called various names, murder or manslaughter)
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I dont follow the maths too much but there is a lot more recent information on the mathematics of tipping points that probably is similarly related. There was also an article that uses riot mathematics to talk about how crowds either get going into a riot or dissipate quietly. Tim Harford touches on such subjects that can lead to further investigation if you like. Tim Harford — Article — The random side of riots basically while most might be rational, they have a tendency to become irrational not because their mind set has changed but because others around them have....
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to go across and around the bridge at the same time he was taking part in a quantum physics experiment?
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Because you 'know' that the host will open a door that has no prize after your original pick, you should always swap....the odds increase. Basically - when the host reveals the dud door, there are two doors left and so the odds change from 1:3, to 2:3 chance of winning. Intuitively we think it does not make a difference - to swap or not. - this is wrong. (Its hard to conceptualise - but here goes) Remember you have to assume this occurs on many games - and that over the long run you are better switching. This is not a one off odds decision. At the start you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the right door Then the host opens the dud door, so now you know he has eliminated one of the dud doors. So what has happened is that you know that there will always be two doors that are eliminated - your pick and the hosts, and that the host will always eliminate a 'dud' door. So no matter which you choose the host will help you. Basically without any maths, tables or other formulas. If you choose to stay then your odds remain at the 1 in 3 If you choose to swap they increase - you should swap. ................
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because the money to be lost in trading is also phenomenal. you had better have an education to fall back on you need enough capital to learn to trade sucessfully enough most people are simply either not capable or dont want to persist or are even simply not honest enough for trading.
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thanks - helps to think more in terms of programming rather than scenarios..... The if ...then not if... or ...then A reason why i was never good at these
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this is a good one for Traders to go through. Also worth while for those who have other 'fears' rejection therapy 100 Days of Rejection Therapy | Hope From Nope
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it was a different day - same time.
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stumbled on this....not so much a brain teaser- or is it? http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/4420-test-your-tool.html Also Traderunner you might be best to answer this....or anyone else. your answers thoughts.... Lily door: Make sure it has a bird Eagle door: Doesn't matter what is on the other side as the rule doesn't say anything about the reverse relationship Fox door: Need to make sure it doesn't have a flower side Pine tree door: Already on the plant side and not a flower so doesn't matter I read the quote ""if a door has a flower on its plant side, then it has a bird on its animal side" as a rule, and hence the inverse relationship must also be true...... my question was more along the lines of is this what is referred to as 'known known or unknown knowns' - or something similar i have heard this before apart from Donald Rumsfeld. Refering to the point that you can see one side of the doors, and its irrelevant to think about if you were on the other side of the doors. thanks (the things that pop into my head while at the gym)
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thought i might thorw in a little light hearted music..... [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87b4a4a2wmY]MINISTRY New World Order - YouTube[/ame]
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I guess one problem is defining the good and bad guys - your friend Alex Jones seems to define everything from Hollywood to vaccines to evolution as part of the message to keep people suppressed. who is going to do that, how will the bad guys be suppressed apart from by more teachers with guns......what happens when you dont fit in with the mold....? I do get where you are coming from, i also think its only part of puzzle. Everytime i read/view something supporting your viewpoint i get an uneasy feeling that those describing everyone as a sheeple are just another form of the same thing. How can you believe that everybody who is currently a sheep can suddenly be trusted to think on their own behalf without making fatal decisions? The more US history i see its apparent you really do live in a historically violent society that has formed your views - there is more than just the revolutionary republic war....there was the ones against the Indians, the Mexicans, the civil war....etc. So i understand ,ore your viewpoint.....yet you claim other countries violence is increasing and yours is decreasing.....another confusing ..... so lets say i 100% support you just we are on the same page and you choose not to ignore these questions....what are the answers to the concerns people have? hint: arming more people is not what seems to be considered a satisfactory answer Even if i was 100% committed to your cause - i still should be asking these questions and not having more propaganda and brainwashing shoved down the pipeline - its part of the Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty....right?
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Question - can the constitution - the rights, the freedoms from tyranny, and collectivization (socialism, communism, facism) survive and thrive without what seems to be the associated links to god and the other conspiracy theories about the illuminati? or even the idea that if you are not a believer in the constitution its because you are somehow brainwashed or stupid and below intelligence? please dont see this as an attack. also i thought some might like this Ghandi quote i stumbled on - i dont know if its true - i have no accurate source for it..... "What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, weather the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?"
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spinal tap...... [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll7rWiY5obI]Spinal Tap - These Go To 11 - YouTube[/ame]
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naked put and call selling can be a profitable strategy - however i would suggest it works as a portfolio insurance type of trade - ie; spread the risks, understand the maximum amounts, and go only for yield. For a retail trader - you are more likely to get handed a massive margin call at some stage....accept that as part of the strategy. There is the additional downside that - when the options you are short are rising against you, the liquidity in them often disappears, the volatility is higher, the fear is greater and the opportunity costs and mental anguish can be devastating. I side with optiontimer on this but also understand the other side can be valid, if sometimes harrowing. Let this one thing be an alert if you are short seller - as soon as you think/say/believe that it is easy money - prepare to clench buttocks and imagine you are locked in the wrong jailhouse for the night.
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Zdo - i appreciate your ideas/thoughts - it has actually been a good voice that has had me reading a few things i never thought i would. If i indicated a hint of painting - sorry - more naughty than unintended. One thing i guess i do find surprising/disappointing/unsurprising is the lack of extra questions, thoughts and ideas from others. maybe people of sick of it, maybe they dont care, maybe they dont want to think any more of it......maybe they do have pink panties, and the fire needs to be fueled either way. for all that i personally thank you - sincerely. because i have been lucky, my views are different - we live in a violent place - i think decreasingly so, the weapons might be more efficient...., but i would hope we can set examples and move beyond that.....blindless optimism maybe. I might not subscribe to Ingots version, but I would like to hope anyone and everyone would prefer to subscribe to that, and maybe it has to start somewhere. .......disarming, across the world might be a good place - maybe it might even help the awakening. interesting - and so the question remains - a revolution, a re writing of the constitution.....with what model, with what ideas? Could all agree that most revolutions just swap one form of tyranny with another? (this to me is the crux - if you are not long what is the alternative, short? - for the obligatory trading analogy ) I agree the whole left right label and conservative v liberal think was something most people get turned off by in such debates.....you can probably be a socially leaning, politically conservative, economically right wing, minianarchist.....go figure. Maybe thats why too often many dont want to participate in such debates or ideas.....its too easy to be bombarded with continuous pictures and slogans and name callings. anyways....thanks.
