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Old 10-21-2011, 11:03 AM   #41
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Re: FX - EuroTrash

it's still just rumor mongering of course - but this is what I been talking about since OP
It's Baaack: FT Deutschland Pronounces Deutsche Mark's Return, Prices Itself At 4.11 DM | ZeroHedge
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Old 10-27-2011, 04:39 AM   #42
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Re: FX - EuroTrash

What i thought a good summary and assessment from a broker report that was sent to me....(I no affiliation with who it was, it was just someones assessment sent to me by a friend)
""""""""""""""""""""" """"
Springtime for the euro, then reality
The nice thing about 4AM press conferences is that no one expects or wants them to be long. The agreement eurozone leaders reached with each other and the banks contain the following points:

1) Nominal write-down of 50% (EUR 100bn) of Greek debt in private hands; Greek debt owned by official lenders not touched
2) Remaining Greek debt will be refinanced at preferential rates
3) Bond swap to be done by end-January
4) Closer supervision of Greek adherence to the program
5) EFSF to be levered 4-5 times
6) No ECB involvement in EFSF; but EU officials were hopeful that they would decide to remain supportive
7) President Sarkozy will speak with China on EFSF involvement
8) EFSF will have both a direct insurance and SPV element; looking for EM/IMF support for the SPV
9) Estimates of EFSF firepower ranged from EUR1.0-1.4tn
10) Italy to deliver specific budget and deficit reduction program
11) Banks must meet minimum capital requirements, seek private capital to cover shortfall
12) If private capital raising insufficient, national governments and then EFSF to meet banking sector needs

The full text of the EU Summit statement can be found here: http://consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cm.../ec/125644.pdf

Overall there was very little that had not been discussed earlier. The euro rallied but the rally did not seem based on much new information since there are very few details and the agreements are to be finalized in the next few months.

We would expect the next 24 hours to be driven by how the Sarkozy call to China President Hu Jintao goes, how investors analyze the sustainability of Greek debt under this program, and the reception that the EFSF proposal will get. We are a bit surprised by the enthusiasm given the lack of detail and lack of surprise. We are also wondering how seriously investors will take the EFSF guarantees (which only apply in the event of a default), given that the banks were strongly encouraged to declare the current restructuring voluntary. Investors may fear that the EFSF guaranteeing governments will similarly contrive to avoid paying out on their first-loss guarantees.

For FX, we see this as broadly positive for risk, since the package seems adequate to avoid any euro zone driven financial market catastrophe for the next year or possibly longer, but it is probably not enough to improve euro zone growth prospects a lot and there are a lot of loose ends that could unravel. We continue to prefer small G10 currencies with good fundamentals (CAD, AUD, NOK, SEK, NZD). We think they will be supported by macro policies in the US, UK, Japan and China (if needed). We also note with satisfaction that investors have forgiven CAD and AUD for dovish central banks and weak CPIs -- we think that they will continue to be bought more on risk than off rate differentials.

We doubt that this package can bring long-term support to the euro, even as we note that there are a lot of committed USD sellers out there. There is a risk of running stops to the upside, as positions still seem somewhat short EUR, but we don't think this package can sustain major gains unless outside money is more enthusiastic about backing euro zone debt than either the ECB or euro zone governments seem to be, and we are not sure why this should be the case...
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Old 10-27-2011, 11:23 AM   #43
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Re: FX - EuroTrash

Quote:
We doubt that this package can bring long-term support to the euro,...
Yep, the OP was about adding the EUR to a very short list.
It used to be just the USD but now I love to see both the EUR and USD rally so I can short them.
They take turns leading in the long race to the bottom.
Will keep going to the well until it’s dry or poison…
So climb!
Climb high little euro!
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Old 12-01-2011, 10:37 AM   #44
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Re: FX - EuroTrash

…finally QE x.28… not announced as such, of course…

Quote:
The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank have announced a coordinated plan to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. According to the plan, the Federal Reserve is going to substantially reduce the interest rate that it charges the European Central Bank to borrow dollars. In turn, that will enable the ECB to lend dollars to European banks at a much cheaper rate. The hope is that this will alleviate the credit crunch which has gripped the European financial system by the throat. So where is the Federal Reserve going to get all of these dollars that it will be loaning out at very low interest rates? You guessed it – the Fed is just going to create them out of thin air. Our currency is being debased so that Europe can be helped out. Unfortunately, the impact of this move will be mostly “psychological” because it really does nothing to address the fundamental problems that Europe is facing. It is up to Europe to solve those problems, and so far Europe has shown no signs of being able to do that.
Michael Snyder

Also see
22 Reasons Why We Could See An Economic Collapse In Europe In 2012

so Fly little euro Fly!
Don’t worry - just FLY high… will have stops underneath for when you come back down
(and will also start resisting your little uptrend from above within the next 12 hours...)
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Old 12-02-2011, 01:53 PM   #45
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Re: FX - EuroTrash

If the EURUSD were following recent correlation levels with the US indexes, the EUR would be back to 138.40 +. Instead it is near 1.34, down, and a third of the way back to it's 11/25 lows
This is related to the OP but I'm not sure how directly... hm ??
...nothing's 'fixed' in EuroTrash ... and the newly created USD's will not trickle down very far below the first recipients...

fwiw, I will not be giving these new shorts much wiggle room late Sun or early Mon am.... might even get flat.
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Old 12-02-2011, 02:07 PM   #46
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Re: FX - EuroTrash

This is related to the OP but I'm not yet sure how directly... hm ??
If the EURUSD were following recent correlation levels with the US indexes, the EUR would be back to 138.40 +. Instead it is near 1.34, down, and a third of the way back to it's 11/25 lows
...nothing's 'fixed' in EuroTrashLand ... and the value of the newly created USD's will not trickle down very far past the first recipients...

There's a current "Trading Pullbacks" thread... maybe one of the methods could be - if an instrument is trash then just short into any and all rebounds...

...but fwiw, while the basic premise of the thread still holds, will not be giving my new shorts much wiggle room late Sun or early Mon am.... might even get flat...

Ya'll have a great weekend.
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Old 01-31-2012, 01:23 PM   #47
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Re: FX - EuroTrash

If Holland leaves EU, will Germany have to follow ?

hey, it's a zerohedge eurotrash kind of day
1.12 On The EURUSD Coming? | ZeroHedge
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Old 02-01-2012, 01:06 AM   #48

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Re: FX - EuroTrash

Can Germany afford to have their strong currency back?
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