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zdo

FX - EuroTrash

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Week old news now but still relevant to the initial ‘I love to see EUR rally so I can short it” theme of this thread…

EUR Soars Most Since October 2011 Greek "Bailout" Announcement: Here Is What Happened Next | ZeroHedge

 

Germany will get out of EUR before Greece does ?

EURUSD to parity ?

or to 1.56 ?

… but this time / this ‘greek election’ really is different…?

charles hugh smith-Sorry, Bucko, Europe Is Still in a Death Spiral

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More material for your consumption and enjoyment ... that almost belongs in the Not Just Another Release thread

 

...enjoy the central-bank inspired market rally while it lasts. It comes at an unbearable cost that will have to be paid some day, and perhaps not as far in the future as the worshippers of the Federal Reserve believe.

 

charles hugh smith-Bernanke and Draghi Are Dangerous

 

(btw the recent related articles he cites are also fairly short and to the point...)

 

Have a great weekend all

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EUR/USD climbs on:

FT reporting that the news is an agreement in September for the EFSF to buy Spanish and Italian debt on the primary market, with the ECB weighing in on secondary markets if necessary, and that the timing of the meeting between Mr Monti and Spain’s Mariano Rajoy has led to some market speculation of a choreographed announcement.

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... go little euro go... run up all the way through Sept ... Oct ... so I can...

... and while you're at it, take your derivatives (the stock indexes ) up with you :)

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...

We may be right on the fundamentals, but wrong on the price action of the market!

 

Who is “We” ? ;)

Speaking for myself, I have barely a clue about the fundamentals.

My insights, regardless of whether they are wrong or right, are into tptb’s ‘perception management' efforts.

… and for now those attempts appear to still be working… as again

“good is great, worse is greater”

The only fundamental I can comment on is that I would not be trading a DM this way… but, starting with the very next player in that cozy little list making the EUR, France, and going on ‘down’ it is a fkn collectivist fundmntl mess…

 

EUR prices are doing exactly what I want them to do in the schema of this thread – they’re cycling up into low risk, high probability sell points… renewed USD destruction notwithstanding.. and inscrutable JPY issues…both of which are sufficiently on topic but are better kept out of these EuroTrash blurbs...

 

Have a great weekend all

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Who is “We” ? ;)

Speaking for myself, I have barely a clue about the fundamentals.

My insights, regardless of whether they are wrong or right, are into tptb’s ‘perception management' efforts.

… and for now those attempts appear to still be working… as again

“good is great, worse is greater”

The only fundamental I can comment on is that I would not be trading a DM this way… but, starting with the very next player in that cozy little list making the EUR, France, and going on ‘down’ it is a fkn collectivist fundmntl mess…

 

EUR prices are doing exactly what I want them to do in the schema of this thread – they’re cycling up into low risk, high probability sell points… renewed USD destruction notwithstanding.. and inscrutable JPY issues…both of which are sufficiently on topic but are better kept out of these EuroTrash blurbs...

 

Have a great weekend all

 

We = small fishes hunting with the sharks :cool:

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Let's see what the sharks do with this ... :cool::cool:

 

He who has eyes ... let him see ... it should be a very happy Christmas 2012

 

Things are working out ok here.

 

For those who like a big punt, the probabilities are favouring this to deliver the bikkies.

 

It's a mortgage muncher if you get it right ... or a destroyer if you don't!

 

Right now we are 800+ pips from support ... are you game?

It's low-hanging fruit!

 

:missy:

5aa71145532ff_EURAUDbackupthetruck.PNG.1a05d71cb14be8bce007d8e4a5dcf71b.PNG

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Things are working out ok here.

 

For those who like a big punt, the probabilities are favouring this to deliver the bikkies.

 

It's a mortgage muncher if you get it right ... or a destroyer if you don't!

 

Right now we are 800+ pips from support ... are you game?

It's low-hanging fruit!

 

:missy:

 

Hi Ingot,

 

This looks interesting. Here are a few thoughts I had:

 

  1. You mention 800 pips down to recent support. Given that you're in a downward trending channel, and that the last two thrusts took out prior support by about 100%, will prior support be your profit target?
     
  2. There was loss of momentum between the previous two down waves, does this concern you?
     
  3. Other participants may define the top of the channel slightly differently, and supply may not enter precisely where you have drawn your line - how much room will you give it to move against your entry?
     
  4. The ascent into resistance has been more agressive than the prior upswings - is this a consideration, and is it an indication that this market is more or less likely to roll over?
     
  5. What's happening in other Euro pairs - is there resistance close by in other charts?
     
  6. How bearish are you really - if you get stopped out shorting the diagonal, would you short again at the horizontal around 1.3060 level?

 

Please don't let any of this influence you in any significant way - you're trading it, not me!

 

BlueHorseshoe

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You mention 800 pips down to recent support. Given that you're in a downward trending channel, and that the last two thrusts took out prior support by about 100%, will prior support be your profit target?
No. I will have a 150-pip trailing stop, after the trade passes the break-even point. At "some point" (discretion) I will be tightening this stop. That event will involve observing what is happening in all TF.

 

There was loss of momentum between the previous two down waves, does this concern you?
Yes - everything concerns me in trading, without being a smart-ass for putting it that way. :) The market often ignores my best plans. While these things look nice on paper as a "heads-up" event, at some point markets exercise their right to remind me of just who is in charge. Reversals occur without warning. In this case, previous activit is working out, but it won't always do that.

 

Other participants may define the top of the channel slightly differently, and supply may not enter precisely where you have drawn your line - how much room will you give it to move against your entry?
I have not entered yet - there is plenty of time. These channels/trends have a high failure rate, and have a habit of spiking out for one last desperate rally. I am not afraid to be the last to the party on these time frames. Having established that, my entry will have 150 pips breathing space. I tried trading what "other participants" define, and had my trousers handed back to me sans ass!

 

The ascent into resistance has been more aggressive than the prior upswings - is this a consideration, and is it an indication that this market is more or less likely to roll over?
No. I can only trade what I see, and take my risks based on probability. That "probability" is based on what I observe on all TF, and unless those things agree, I don't trade. While the use of indicators is restricted, I like to use a couple of lagging ones (generally only one) to indicate reversed momentum.

 

What's happening in other Euro pairs - is there resistance close by in other charts?
Excellent observation - I used to see the correlation, but markets are evolving now. With the GBP/USD/JPY/EUR pairs all affected by their respective central banks printing money these days, I take less interest in what "other Euro pairs" are doing. I still look though, because there are always technical reasons why charting behaviour manifests itself. The bellwether is no longer the EURUSD, as both central banks are corrupting their currencies poste haste.

 

How bearish are you really - if you get stopped out shorting the diagonal, would you short again at the horizontal around 1.3060 level?

I don't know, mate. I'm easily hurt, and sometimes I take a couple of weeks off trading (and sometimes 3 months) to get my mind clear of prejudices and bias based on opinions.

 

Please don't let any of this influence you in any significant way - you're trading it, not me!
Thanks for responding, BlueHorseshoe. While the posts are a heads-up for everyone, I know people still take their entries in their own head-space comfort, and in their favourite TF.

 

Initially I will be looking at the Daily and 4H TF to grab the least risk entry, but after that, I will not look at the 4H again intentionally. It will just sit in the 6-chart template displayed on my first screen.

 

I don't usually trade Mondays, but having said that, the momentum can not be denied, and as I write, I am looking at both GOLD and the EURAUD for possible action.

 

I don't know many traders who still use line charts - I do ... especially for setting trend lines on the higher TF. Was that the reason for your statement: "Other participants may define the top of the channel slightly differently ..." ?

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Europe is becoming quite strange …
The Operatic Grandeur Of "More Europe" | ZeroHedge

:confused:

Becoming??? Seems to me the whole dang planet has been “becoming” quite strange for some decades now…

… and the fiat, leveraging, 'central'/private banks, fiscal, etc madness will continue until it doesn’t any more.

As my boy CHSmith notes, the "Status Quo has embraced this solution for the appealing reason it doesn’t change the power structure at all." As long as the middle accepts the debt load being surreptitiously transferred over to them, they will continue to sneak over…

charles hugh smith-The Siren Song of "Beautiful Deleveraging"

 

btw, just some thoughts ... not a new projection

 

Have a great weekend all

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This probably belongs in Earth Is Going To Be Next thrd... or even EuroSwooning thrd... but wth

 

It’s officially a 3-way race to the bottom

 

…. maybe

 

???

 

 

 

 

 

CHF ------------------- Almost :OFF TOPIC

 

In early April 12, they ‘coupled’ CHF to the EUR

On Sept 5, it decoupled again…

It has subsequently stabilized again… see attached 3 hr. chart

 

My question to all:

Is the EURCHF relationship / chart a ‘tell’?

If so, in what way?

 

For example, from http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12545-good-time-buy-gold-again-8.html#post161514 Ingot54 said

There is a head of steam building in the EURCHF that is going to end in tears. No bank can hope to

restrict the level at which their currency can trade on the free market. At some point there is going

to be a serious challenge - just as soon as someone sees a "Soros-style opportunity" to take on the

SNB, and it will happen. When it does, the only hope for the CHF will be for another

country to come to their aid, to defend the franc ... and that dog ain't gonna hunt!

 

 

The situation is not that the franc is going to be sold ... it is going to be bought!

Wait until the EUR begins to decline further - the pressure can not be contained.

Do any of you have insights into how this relationship might serve as a ‘tell’

 

related ?’s

What percentage of the EUR sov debt mess are the Swiss on the hook for?

etc etc…

 

Thanks, all

 

“...but, the future's been rehearsed...”

EURCHF.thumb.png.eb1b82d28d7c11166681d3bcbac54dd6.png

Edited by zdo
forgot attachment

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Basically same picture ... only hopefully more viewable

 

bottom horiz line = coupling level from April

left vert. line = end of coupling ends Sept 5

right vert. line = 're-stablizing' begins ~ Sept 18

top horiz line = 're-stablizing' (approx) level

EURCHF.thumb.jpg.a70c0322bc51689a23ebec8e0f27f307.jpg

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Hope you're invested :cool:

 

voir ci-dessous

kyk uit onder

паглядзіце ніжэй

погледнете по-долу

看下面

pogledajte u nastavku

se nedenfor

kijk hieronder

elsercxu sube

tumingin sa ibaba

katso jäljempänä

გამოიყურება ქვემოთ

schauen unten

εξετάσουμε παρακάτω

נראה להלן

નીચે બહાર નજર

नीचे बाहर देखो

nézd meg az alábbi

líta hér

lihat di bawah ini

breathnú amach thíos

guardare qui di seguito

下記の外を見る

아래 밖을 내다보다

ເບິ່ງອອກຂ້າງລຸ່ມນີ້

prospice infra

izskatās zemāk

atkreipti dėmesį, žemiau

melihat keluar bawah

tfittex hawn taħt

نگاه زیر

ser ut under

spojrzeć poniżej

veja a seguir

uite mai jos

посмотрите ниже

mirar por debajo de

titta nedan

nhìn dưới đây

קוקן אויס ווייטער

edrych allan isod

shikoni më poshtë

 

Whatever way you choose to say it ... it still means: Look out below!

 

Can it get to $1.2000?

YES! It Can!

 

(WITH THANKS TO GOOGLE TRANSLATE)

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Hope you're invested :cool:

 

voir ci-dessous

...

shikoni më poshtë

 

Whatever way you choose to say it ... it still means: Look out below!

 

Can it get to $1.2000?

YES! It Can!

...

 

 

Thx.

for me, 1.245 would do just fine :)

 

re 1.2

Instead of "Can it...? "

My question would be "Will it... in the next 2 - 3 weeks?"

By end of 11/12, my active short bias starts dropping pretty fast ... almost fully dissolved by ~ year end...

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