Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

suriNotes

Patterns in S&P500 Index

Recommended Posts

Here are potential scenarios from S&P's daily chart patterns.

 

1. The most visible pattern in S&P since June 2010 until now (Nov. 12, 2010) is Inv. Head and Shoulders. Late Sept. SPX traded above neckline to confirm Inv. H&S pattern. The target for Inv. H&S Pattern is 1250 (100% of Necline to low of Head). This target is also inline with X5 target 1231-1246 (price cluster).

 

2. The current famous pattern is Trader Vic's 2B (2T) Pattern. It is a form of

irregular Double Top formation. First Top is from Late April at 1219 and the second potential top is on Nov. 5th at 1227. If S&P slides and closes below 1195 (also 21-EMA), it may confirm 2T pattern. The trigger for a short-trade is to enter the low of

the bar which closed below 1195. Set a STOP above the Nov. 5th High + few points (1229-1230). Target is at least the 50% of swing range nearing the Neckline (or 'B' in X5 pattern). Ultimate target for 2T pattern is between 61-76 of prior swing.

 

3. Last but most vivid pattern is X5 pattern. It says, current slide may be just a pullback.

In that case, next price cluster may offer some resistance (1231-1246). If price

reverses from current sell-off and trades higher, there are two possible scenarios.

 

'D' is trading outside of XA range

A. Bearish Butterfly (Target 1.27XA to 1277).

B. Bearish Crab (Target: 1.62XA: 1350).

 

4. ABC Bullish pattern is also embedded in the X5 pattern. It shows the

Price and Time Targets coinciding with some of X5 target ranges.

 

Disclaimer: The chart analysis provided here is for educational purpose only.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=22917&stc=1&d=1289614050

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=22918&stc=1&d=1289614050

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=22919&stc=1&d=1289614050

SPX_2TTop.gif.438c61aa8c91ffc1fc942e967df7aaf8.gif

SPX_X5.gif.78182e0e5f974e03f047edaa5633d8a0.gif

SPX_ABC_Nov1110.gif.9d961480fcc32f9cf6564aae51d7686c.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello Suri Sir,

 

Thanks for the charts .

I would like to know your view on this bearish butterfly?? Can we consider it a valid one, price made a double top here but still PA is not strong enough in this PRZ.

[if you don't mind I am using your chart to make my point ]

 

I am also adding one more chart with andrew's median line.

Let us see how it will unfold.

 

Regards,

TAQ

SPX_X5.gif.e21f23f0ce3dc0899ed6d3de82ee2f55.gif

f240.thumb.gif.da509ffe8a6c15487f5c8569245d77eb.gif

Edited by taq

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hello Suri Sir,

 

Thanks for the charts .

I would like to know your view on this bearish butterfly?? Can we consider it a valid one, price made a double top here but still PA is not strong enough in this PRZ.

[if you don't mind I am using your chart to make my point ]

 

I am also adding one more chart with andrew's median line.

Let us see how it will unfold.

 

Regards,

TAQ

 

 

Hi TAQ,

 

Thanks for your post and re-drawing Bearish Butterfly pattern.

I like your Pitchfork/Median Line drawing too.

 

Yes, only the short-term trend is signaling potential trend-reversal but both Intermediate and Long

term trends are intact (bullish). Even the short-term trend is not confirmed. For me, if SPX closes below 1183, I would think short-term is reversed to bearish and probably look for shorting or close longs. In SPY, I would look for price to close below 118.5 for trend reversal. My targets in SPX are still near next price cluster 1240-1250.

 

Regarding your drawing of Bearish Butterfly pattern, I would not fit ratios to draw the pattern. In my view, it is opposite as pattern must show the ratios. If the ratios agree within a defined range, then you conclude as a certain pattern. I never consider intermediate pivots (like your drawing of X pivot) to be a key level part of the Bearish Butterfly pattern.This is the reason I dislike some of the drawings in Wolfe-Wave as some traders draw from an intermediate pivot levels to connect and re-define as Wolfe Wave. But I am no expert in Wolfe Wave either. I always tell myself that there are NO perfect patterns which fit exact ratios in the markets.

 

Here is the SPY Chart.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=22937&stc=1&d=1289782385

SPY_Nov1410.gif.3b9fbc99048e6505c7672037d1176ade.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi TAQ,

 

Regarding your drawing of Bearish Butterfly pattern, I would not fit ratios to draw the pattern. In my view, it is opposite as pattern must show the ratios. If the ratios agree within a defined range, then you conclude as a certain pattern. I never consider intermediate pivots (like your drawing of X pivot) to be a key level part of the Bearish Butterfly pattern.

 

 

I understand your point.Thanks, I will remember that.

 

Here is the ES daily chart, I draw the swing Highs/Lows.I would like to know Which pivots you consider as not valid & why??

 

Regarding Median Line. I am watching downward red fork if reverse from upper downsloping line than I would consider going shorts here problem is the blue upward sloping fork is still valid will watch price @ quartile & lower ML .Let us see how it will unfold .

 

Regards,

TAQ

f241.thumb.gif.a2ca23212b8ff11bb6abfb5f87a375c8.gif

f242.thumb.gif.87df21de87189c56c4fdd6c69d31166d.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Taq,

 

Thanks for your post.

 

You can't have a Major SwingHigh Pivot followed by another Major SwingHigh Pivot without having a Major SwingLow Pivot between them. All the Pivots between Major SwingHigh Pivot and Major SwingLow Pivots are considered Intermediate Pivots.

 

Regards,

Suri

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Taq,

 

Thanks for your post.

 

You can't have a Major SwingHigh Pivot followed by another Major SwingHigh Pivot without having a Major SwingLow Pivot between them. All the Pivots between Major SwingHigh Pivot and Major SwingLow Pivots are considered Intermediate Pivots.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

Thanks Sir,

If possible an example would be appreciated.

 

Here What I understand from differnet readings & your points.Correct me if I am wrong.

 

For 5-point structure XABCD, X & A has to be major Swing High/Low & B & C intermediate SH/SL , Point D can be intermediate SH/SL (in gartley & bat) or Major SH/SL (in butterfly or crab).

 

Regards,

TAQ

f241-2.thumb.gif.84a2fd011fbd52ff2884394fc84aa995.gif

Edited by taq

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks Sir,

If possible an example would be appreciated.

 

Here What I understand from differnet readings & your points.Correct me if I am wrong.

 

For 5-point structure XABCD, X & A has to be major Swing High/Low & B & C intermediate SH/SL , Point D can be intermediate SH/SL (in gartley & bat) or Major SH/SL (in butterfly or crab).

 

Regards,

TAQ

 

Hi TAQ,

 

Here is the SPX chart with X5 marked.

 

Regards,

Suri

attachment.php?attachmentid=22966&stc=1&d=1289923836

SPX_X5_Nov1610.gif.d14b9215b6b6c2af66cb2d39ee9033fc.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is a collage of X5 Patterns in key Tech/Financial stocks....

 

Regards,

Suri

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=22975&stc=1&d=1289938508

 

Very nice collection of colorful butterflies.

Is there any pracical use for them appart from the artistic value?

 

Gabe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Very nice collection of colorful butterflies.

Is there any pracical use for them appart from the artistic value?

 

Gabe

 

Hi Gabe,

 

Thanks for your comments.

 

Butterflies are part of Harmonic Patterns. When point 'D' (current) is traded in the key reversal zone (see the right side of each chart showing Potential Reversal Price Clusters), it signals close the longs or sell short. Butterflies (all X5 patterns) also have ABC patterns embedded. So, I trade both CD (long setup:bullish) and Shorts from D levels when other market context agrees... The other Harmonic Patterns are Gartley, Crab, and Bat setups. If you are not familiar with the Harmonic Patterns, search for Scott Carney and his work (I think his work is the most brilliant !!).

 

I posted the collage to show the phenomena exhibiting the confluence of Butterflies in Tech and Financial stocks. Yes, Butterflies are Colorful...

 

Regards,

Suri

Edited by suriNotes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is SPX chart with Bearish Butterfly Pattern...

 

Regards,

Suri

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23348&stc=1&d=1292457266

 

Have you tried to trade these?

 

I have. My experience was neutral. I made some money and lost some money. I traded them mainly in a small currency account. I didn't find them to be profitable so I stopped.

 

I forgot the guy's name who was nice enough to code the patterns in MT4 (something with a Z). The indicator was really nice, but It wasn't adding anything over time.

 

It could have been me too. I am not one to blindly allow a trade to stay on simply because its a pattern that sometimes works.

 

 

Regards,

 

MM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Have you tried to trade these?

 

I have. My experience was neutral. I made some money and lost some money. I traded them mainly in a small currency account. I didn't find them to be profitable so I stopped.

 

I forgot the guy's name who was nice enough to code the patterns in MT4 (something with a Z). The indicator was really nice, but It wasn't adding anything over time.

 

It could have been me too. I am not one to blindly allow a trade to stay on simply because its a pattern that sometimes works.

 

 

Regards,

 

MM

 

*** This is a response I posted to a user in another forum to a similar question **

 

Hi MM,

 

Thanks for your question.

 

I have been trading X5-Harmonic Patterns (ABCs, Gartleys..) and other Geometric Patterns (Triangles, Rect. Channels etc..) all my trading career of 15+ yrs. Complex patterns like Harmonic Patterns are difficult to detect with naked eye (at least the proper ones which follow their rules) and even more difficult to code/backtest. Building rules to trade patterns successfully is another challenge.

 

The reliability of any pattern or indicator is subject to it's structure, market phase, type of filters applied and user's experience... I would rate Harmonic Patterns as the 50-60% reliable overall but with the right market context (filters, phases), I would think their reliability increases to 70-75%. There are other patterns which may be little more reliable than X5 patterns, but Harmonic patterns are my bread-butter setups. Also note there are NO perfect patterns and all patterns fail. I have built my own theory of Market Context and other supporting tools with filtering mechanisms to trade them when opportunities present. Harmonic patterns are also part of many other patterns like simple H&S, DB/DT, Triangles and Complex patterns like Wolfe Waves and Elliott Waves.

 

Harmonic patterns appear in all instruments and in all time-frames. This is at least my nth generation algorithm (wrote from scratch each time) I am attempting to write X5 (all Gartley variations) patterns in the last 5-6 years. I think this time I may have the best algorithm. Once I complete I will attempt to write more filter logic. I wrote Auto ABC Pattern detection few years ago and currently I use it for my trading (intraday and EOD). The key is to detect these patterns with absolutely no-delays. Now I have achieved that with both ABC and X5 Harmonic algorithms. They also generate auto Entry, Stop and Target levels for each setup.

 

Hope I answered your question.

 

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!

 

Regards,

Suri

Edited by suriNotes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.