[TimRacette]

The average failure rate of a trader is 3 months. I'm just speculating here, but I would wager that for those who make it past the first 3 months, 50% fail in the next 3 months, 50% in the next 3, leaving 25% of the traders left (who made it past the first 3 months).

As for the % of traders who make it past the 1 year mark, it's probably somewhere around 10%, the reason - trading is 90% psychological.

[Warren Forex]

Originally Posted by TimRacette »

The average failure rate of a trader is 3 months. I'm just speculating here, but I would wager that for those who make it past the first 3 months, 50% fail in the next 3 months, 50% in the next 3, leaving 25% of the traders left (who made it past the first 3 months).

As for the % of traders who make it past the 1 year mark, it's probably somewhere around 10%, the reason - trading is 90% psychological.

I started trading via Demo accounts of $50,000 US during September 2003. During March 2006 I started trading real funds. 5 Years later I still trade and on a scale of 1 to 100 I would give myself a 60 starting in 2006. Today I would give myself a 90 with my average ROI about 10% a month.

Trading is about 75% psychological and maybe more. However unless you have superior Risk Management skills in these markets you will lose. I guess that does tie into your 90% psychological.

Nice to see your post.

[SpearPointTrader]

I can agree 100% on the psychological part.

[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by Warren Forex »

I started trading via Demo accounts of $50,000 US during September 2003. During March 2006 I started trading real funds. 5 Years later I still trade and on a scale of 1 to 100 I would give myself a 60 starting in 2006. Today I would give myself a 90 with my average ROI about 10% a month.

Trading is about 75% psychological and maybe more. However unless you have superior Risk Management skills in these markets you will lose. I guess that does tie into your 90% psychological.

Nice to see your post.

you give yourself a 90 with a monthly roi of 10%? You should give yourself a 200.

[TheNegotiator]

Why should the estimate that trading is 90% psychological correlate in any way to the estimate that 10% of new traders make it past a year? Surely it's possible that less than 10% of people have the pyschological ability to make it past year 1, year 2, year 3 or whatever.

[zdo]

TN,

you give yourself a 90 with a monthly roi of 10%? You should give yourself a 200.

as a performance worker who grades self by how many ticks I took from the number of ticks available, I can totally relate to how he could ‘only’ give himself a 90 with a monthly roi of 10%... even in the few months where I’ve had way way over 10% roi I never rated myself higher than a 93

Stable 97+ is my goal - which would consistently include attaining the potential of both stupendously high financial returns and flow / ‘effortless’ high performance

Why should the estimate that trading is 90% psychological correlate in any way to the estimate that 10% of new traders make it past a year? Surely it's possible that less than 10% of people have the pyschological ability to make it past year 1, year 2, year 3 or whatever.

Negotiator, could you clarify / restate / expand on that please? I don’t quite understand what you’re saying… Thanks.

[TheNegotiator]

zdo,

I think what Tim was saying, unless I'm very much mistaken, is that because trading is supposedly 90% psychology, only 10% of people will make it past year 1. I am saying that I don't agree that the percentage of people making it past year 1 directly correlates to how pscychological trading is. It's like saying that 90% of becoming a pro athlete is psychological, so 10% of people who try will still be trying or have made it after year 1. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe I misinterpreted the point.

[zdo]

Thanks. That clears it up for me.
Will await Tim's interpretation... because he is onto something --- whether we're getting the 'stats' right or not

"...half the game is 90% mental..." yogi beri