[chrisyeap]

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne »

Don't you just love NFP Day!!

Out of 3 pairs , how would you know which to trade?

[TheRumpledOne]

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

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"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

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1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

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WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

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PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne]

Originally Posted by chrisyeap »

Out of 3 pairs , how would you know which to trade?

I usually pick the one with the highest average daily range.

[TheRumpledOne]

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1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

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The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

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Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

THINK ABOUT IT!!


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MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

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1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

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PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[jswanson]

I've become interested in this potential edge of capturing points off the daily low (Green Rat) so I began to create some studies. I hope the RumpledOne does not mind me posting within his thread. I think my post is relevant and my help others when exploring this type of trade setup.

First, I don't trade forex but I do trade Euro futures. So, the following numbers are based on this futures contract. I want to answer the question, How Many Points Does Price Close Above The Low?

The Low-To-Close (LTC) observation is the price difference between the closing price and the low of a single daily candle. The first thing I want to explore is how many ticks are available between the low and the close? To do this I created an EasyLanguage strategy that computes this value for each candle and places them within an Excel spreadsheet. Within Excel I can compute the median ticks for each day and generate a histogram showing the distribution of ticks.

The histogram will be broken into “bins” that represent a 15 tick range. Bin number one will contain the number of days that had a Low-To-Close count of 0 through 14 ticks. Bucket number two will contain all days that had a Low-To-Close count between 15 through 29 ticks. The bins are arranged from left to right on the x-axis of the graphs. The bins look something like this:

Bin #1 00 – 14 ticks
Bin #2 14 – 29 ticks
Bin #3 30 – 44 ticks
Bin #4 45 – 59 ticks
.
.
.
The days in our study will be from 08/08/2008 to 01/27/2011.

ALL DAYS

This study produces 1,061 days with a median LTC value of 66 ticks. This value translates into $825. That's a lot of ticks that can be captured! Below is the distribution curve which shows a nice smooth graph which peeks at bin number 3 which is 30-44 ticks. The curve smoothly tapers off into a nice tail as the bin numbers climb.



In the end it sure looks like there might be potential here. The trading concept would be to open a long position near the intraday low and closing that trade at the median LTC value or at the end-of-day.

In my next study I want to see if there are any particular times during the day where a low is most often put-in.

[TheRumpledOne]

1) price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) red candle closes

3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.


"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."


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PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne]

1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

========================= ===================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne]

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.