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MadMarketScientist

Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor

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41.50 is attracting new buyers... market is responding to imbalance at 42.50. If 42.50 goes then a retest of 44 could be within easy reach.

--

Anticipating buyers to take out OB imbalance momentarily

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New buy program...triggered. There are 2 ways to look at current market.. 1 is that limit order sellers have move lower and exhausted demand. But buyers remain dominant force.. my hypothesis is that these are lq providers and will cover/reset/rebalance shortly

 

These are clearly large volume traders who can temporarily exhaust market. That's often why we have a retest and drive higher

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Several of the vendors here have came out in force. Some have attempted to try to associate their own software, which is obviously rudimentary, and compare it to my software (while they busily copy my innovations and "ask questions" in my tape reading thread to try to figure out how it works).

 

It may come then as a surprise that I'm the only vendor who HASN'T attempted to advertise my software in this thread but instead focused on real-time analysis of the market relevant to day traders. The fact I was willing and able to do this clearly frustrated other vendors who were either unable or unwilling to provide real-time analysis. I'm glad the discussion is on tape reading but for me, it is something I do in real-time. It is also something for me that is at least partially proprietary and not shared at large. I do share general ideas for how my software works.

 

I've had people complaining and trolling me since I started providing my real-time analysis here. Early on, people were claiming that it was to sell my tape reading materials. Later, the same trolls said that it was to sell my software. First, they said I copied a program from one company and then they said no my software was a copy from a completely different company. It should have been clear that vendors with trying to associate their products with my own. The more astute realized that our software is unique, innovative, and the most powerful platform. Again, I said we wouldn't have developed it had existing platforms been able to do what we wanted.

 

What I'm getting at is that many appear myopically focused on whether or not that I'm selling something and not the value that I'm offering. The reality is that one of the reasons I started charging for my information was because when I provided it for free I received trolling, harassment, and so forth from the crowd -- but when I charged -- my customers, to say my tape reading materials, have been serious students of the market. No trolling, no harassment, and no fuss from people who obviously don't/can't trade. And, I even get payed for it or others run research for me or help develop our software. For me, charging a modest fee for my expert knowledge has been as much about acting as a gateway to create the type of environment and find the type of serious traders I want to associate with as much or even more then it has been about making a profit.

 

 

So, if you wonder why some things in life cost money then now you know.

Edited by Predictor

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vertigo.. thanks.. I know that there are many here who do appreciate my efforts but its the trolls who always make the loudest racket.

 

We just had large order book imbalance off 32.50. We had a drive push higher (buying) and then we seen that large buying prints occurred at consecutively lower highs. My interpretation is that the order flow responded to the order book imbalance at 32.50 and a large limit order seller "walked down" the book exhausting the market order traders.

 

When too many traders want to do the same thing at the same time then it creates imbalances in the market structure such that those traders can't clear... another reason I don't share everything.

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One of the recent ways I've started to read the tape is by tracking imbalances over time. In range markets sellers and buyers will tend to execute at the extents of the profile where the volume is lower. However, in trending markets we see different behavior.

 

The most recent aggressive sellers are short from 32 and sellers are slightly outnumber buyers. If we start to build significant inventory and trade below this level then I can anticipate that a retest of recent lows is a higher probability. Recent buyers are aggressive off the 32.50.. holding above this level will be worth monitoring.

---

We have a short imbalance but that doesn't mean we head lower. If the market can hold above that imbalance then those short traders will be forced to cover. Its a warning but in itself it doesn't tell us everything. The relationship between price and orderflow is where the value comes in

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In most recent call, I was tracking closely the imbalances in the long/short traders. I track closely the imbalances in the long/short traders. I can see where traders are getting long or short from and whether or not they are unloading or accumulating at new highs or lows using my volume inventory tracker. In this way, I don't just have to rely on price.

 

My focus is on my order flow monitoring columns which allow me to see where the dominant directional order flow drives originate from, various volume references, and the balances. There are patterns in the balances that help me to trade.

 

Some traders have compared my software to another program, a program I'd never use. Also some have mistakenly assume because they are able to track the volume inside a bar that they are doing anything like I'm doing.. they probably aren't because I don't pay attention to that. I'm watching the numbers.

 

I can say that even with total visibility the market is extremely efficient. Most traders can't see just how efficient it is -- they may feel it but with my software I can now see it. This is why I find it best to trade in my own way. Difficult to make money doing what everyone else does but often some slight modifications can make it work. Generally involves taking more risk. I call it "playing around the edges".

 

Just one example of playing around the edges is that most day traders want to be flat at end of day even if holding overnight could be advantageous. While, it might make sense to try to be flat most days, being required to be flat is often a major disadvantage.

 

.. Again I think there are some misconceptions about what tape reading is... and how I do it. That's good. There are many ways to trade.

Edited by Predictor

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I was tracking closely the imbalances in the long/short traders. I track closely the imbalances in the long/short traders. I can see where traders are getting long or short from and whether or not they are unloading or accumulating at new highs or lows using my volume inventory tracker.

 

...they may feel it but with my software I can now see it. Difficult to make money doing what everyone else does but often some slight modifications can make it work. Generally involves taking more risk. I call it "playing around the edges".

 

In an effort to try to be as objective as possible, I watched the first 2 minutes of a video you posted in your other thread. You "slow down" the time and sales by accumulating volume at a price as long as the bid/offer stay there. I was shocked that you treated this as some sort of vast improvement or innovation..?

 

Also, the fact that you are talking about taking more risk makes puzzles me a bit. The best traders are risk averse, and look for ways to reduce their risk. You are a man who is obviously proud of your software, and I admire that; it's your baby, so you have a particular fondness for it. But you have a certain arrogance that comes across, and it makes for good entertainment in the same way that those people on American Idol sing way out of pitch and then are shocked when they are told they are not getting called back, and they never realize that they are there purely for entertainment.

 

You may have some success with your software, but you can not "track inventory" -- I am still amazed at how many people think they have found some key that lets them see who is long/short and from what price. The market provides you with this information: time, volume, price, bid, ask, and all order book information for however many levels you see (usually 10 on each side). That's it. You cannot see by a normal transaction any of what you say you can see.

 

You may be able to take some good guesses, but a quick look at your generally flip-flop take on things makes it clear that you have no edge with this. The market does not provide enough information for you to be able to track inventory. You can, with some reliability, determine that smaller orders were in fact part of a larger order based on timestamp, but some of the world's brightest with Ph.D's are paid MILLIONS of dollars to work on algorithms designed specifically to HIDE their order execution so that they can NOT be detected by even other amazingly complex algorithms also written by genius millionaires, much less by a guy who thinks that accumulating T&S records is somehow advanced! Behavior of algos and humans can be detected, but you can NOT track inventory. The reason is very simple--humans and computers can use different order types to both accumulate and distribute their "inventory" -- and you have no idea which one is being used at any given time. If all buys were done with a market order, and all sells done with a limit order, you'd have it made, but it just isn't that simple.

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The flip-flopping is what concerns me the most.

 

The market is unpredictable, that we know.

If the market is predictable, or if you can predict the market, then none of us needs to be here. We will be drinking pina colada on the beach. The fact that you are peddling a 2 bit software here shows that you cannot predict, at least not to the extend that it will allow you to drink pina coloda on the beach.

 

People do change their mind in the middle of the day, or even in the middle of the trade.

But flip-flopping is an entirely different matter:

at best, it shows you have no confidence on what you are doing.

at worst, it shows you do not know WTF you are doing.

I am not here to find out, only your bank manager can tell.

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josh.. just few notes

 

>>The best traders are risk averse, and look for ways to reduce their risk.

 

Who claims this? How do you know this? I would say the best traders are selectively risk seeing. Why would someone who wants to reduce their risk engage in a risky endeavor like trading any way?

 

>>I was shocked that you treated this as some sort of vast improvement or innovation..?

 

I don't know any tape reader who would prefer a traditional time/sales display over what I developed. As someone who has read time/sales for years, I'm confident that it is a vast improvement. I know many are looking for "cash machine" -- and are disappointed that it doesn't exist. But I've developed powerful tools for professional and aspiring traders.

 

>>You may be able to take some good guesses,

 

Most every trading method, I know of, involves a high degree of uncertainty.. I don't believe I ever claimed to know with absolute certainty this. I use many ways to read the market. Again your focus is myopic... I just started tracking inventory. I discard what doesn't and focus on what's working for me. Your appeal to efficient markets applies equally to every other other trading method.

 

Josh, I don't know why you choose to insult me. What you mistake as arrogance is actually talent and passion. I'm not sure why you make a point about not all trades being market orders: that much is obvious and something I've made a point about.

 

Has any recognized I make very good calls/analysis here and that is what attracts the most animosity? I guess you'd rather me complain about how difficult it is. You know I could say a similar point about you desiring to sound smart but sounding off key..

Edited by Predictor

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Several of the vendors here have came out in force. Some have attempted to try to associate their own software, which is obviously rudimentary, and compare it to my software (while they busily copy my innovations and "ask questions" in my tape reading thread to try to figure out how it works).

 

Actually, if you want to have this conversation, you can be specific about it. No need to say "some vendors".

 

Your software is based on the Jigsaw product, right down to the color scheme, including the way you color the trades at the inside bid/offer. This is not a coincidence.

 

There is plenty of room in this space for different products. Still, when someone shows their hand by copying you right down to the color scheme, you then have to understand that such people will be looking to copy other things you do. Such is life. I will therefore be a bit guarded about what I discuss here. It's just common sense.

 

It may come then as a surprise that I'm the only vendor who HASN'T attempted to advertise my software in this thread but instead focused on real-time analysis of the market relevant to day traders. The fact I was willing and able to do this clearly frustrated other vendors who were either unable or unwilling to provide real-time analysis. I'm glad the discussion is on tape reading but for me, it is something I do in real-time. It is also something for me that is at least partially proprietary and not shared at large. I do share general ideas for how my software works.

 

As we are both in the same game, we should be honest at least with ourselves. Your posts on here are nothing but an advertisement for your software. That is the whole point, right? Let's not consider our audience naive. You would do well not to underestimate the readership.

 

In terms of real time analysis "it migh go up or it might go down" isn't really fitting in the category of "real time analysis". The stuff about "buy programs hitting in here" is really a flashy way of saying "market is moving up". If you can't blind them with science, baffle them with BS. It's not really analysis as much as it is an attempt to impress people.

 

I've had people complaining and trolling me since I started providing my real-time analysis here. Early on, people were claiming that it was to sell my tape reading materials. Later, the same trolls said that it was to sell my software. First, they said I copied a program from one company and then they said no my software was a copy from a completely different company. It should have been clear that vendors with trying to associate their products with my own. The more astute realized that our software is unique, innovative, and the most powerful platform. Again, I said we wouldn't have developed it had existing platforms been able to do what we wanted.

 

I will agree that you added features that Jigsaw doesn't have and certainly doesn't want or need. That is not our thing. There's lots of unique products out there and a handful of useful ones.

 

What I'm getting at is that many appear myopically focused on whether or not that I'm selling something and not the value that I'm offering. The reality is that one of the reasons I started charging for my information was because when I provided it for free I received trolling, harassment, and so forth from the crowd -- but when I charged -- my customers, to say my tape reading materials, have been serious students of the market. No trolling, no harassment, and no fuss from people who obviously don't/can't trade. And, I even get payed for it or others run research for me or help develop our software. For me, charging a modest fee for my expert knowledge has been as much about acting as a gateway to create the type of environment and find the type of serious traders I want to associate with as much or even more then it has been about making a profit.

 

 

So, if you wonder why some things in life cost money then now you know.

 

The best thing to do in order to sort this out is to do some live trade videos - follow my lead on that if you like. I will add more of the same, simply recording whilst I trade.

 

It is almost impossible to teach anything useful on reading order flow using static media such as text and images. Same as you can't teach anyone how to drive using text and images. With video, you get to put across more of the nuance.

 

It's pretty easy to do and it will also erase any doubts people may have about your abilities. You could pull up a chart with your trade markers on it to show this isn't video attempt 5 of the day, you could do it with a live account showing the depth increase when you place a limit order and your trades appear on time & sales and you would leave no doubt as to what a great trader you are.

 

It is an amazing medium. After all, if you are truly altruistic in your wanting to teach here, then you should understand that more people will pay attention to your lessons if they have confidence that you can walk the walk.

 

Good luck

 

DT

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In an effort to try to be as objective as possible, I watched the first 2 minutes of a video you posted in your other thread. You "slow down" the time and sales by accumulating volume at a price as long as the bid/offer stay there. I was shocked that you treated this as some sort of vast improvement or innovation..?

 

Well - he hadn't copied the Jigsaw Reconstructed Tape or Summary Tape yet, so he needed to add that one in!

 

I'm only amazed it took so long.

 

What the market place has now is:

 

1 Aggregated Time & Sales - Big Mike Trading forum (free tool)

2 Reconstructed Tape - Jigsaw, the idea behind (1) above

3 Summary Tape - Jigsaw - shows trades @ bid/offer until bid/offer changes

4 Sierra Charts - consolidates trades with same price & time stamp (optional)

5 I am sure there are others too.

 

Anyway - Vive la revolution!

Edited by DionysusToast

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>>Actually, if you want to have this conversation, you can be specific about it. No need to >>say "some vendors".

 

Wrong you are not the vendor I mentioned who's product I wouldn't use. Look, its a big world out there and most are only familiar with a small part of it. I don't use charting programs and found them not to work FOR ME (for intraday trading -- not swing trades). Many people are associated my program with various charting programs who's only similarity is the ability to plot volume inside a bar. However, I would not use any program without testing the algorithms extensively. I'm confident in our algorithms but not so sure about other free stuff/low cost stuff out there... if traders want to believe that stuff works then that's fine with me.

 

>>Your posts on here are nothing but an advertisement for your software. That is the >>whole point, right? Let's not consider our audience naive. You would do well not to >>underestimate the readership.

 

If that is true wouldn't you think that I'd mention my company name or my product name? I don't believe I mentioned it once in this thread. You have. Look, I have near perfect knowledge on this matter because I didn't want to develop my own program. It was a huge expensive and developed for my own trading. I know all the products in the space and am confident that we have a superior solution. If there was anything out there that did what I needed then I wouldn't have developed my own software.

 

>>I will agree that you added features that Jigsaw doesn't have and certainly doesn't want >>or need. That is not our thing. There's lots of unique products out there and a handful

 

Then please quit copying my ideas like dominant side highlighting. This isn't on the video on your front page and is a direct copy of my work. I'm sure you'd copy the rest but it is not a trivial thing to do.

 

>>It's pretty easy to do and it will also erase any doubts people may have about your >>abilities. You could pull up a chart with your trade markers on it to show this isn't video >>attempt 5 of

 

I have no idea what you are talking about. Why does my having an ability to offer superior software have anything to do with my trading ability? Yes, I've had top ranked audited futures systems. I don't think that's important either.

 

>>It is an amazing medium. After all, if you are truly altruistic in your wanting to teach >>here, then you should understand that more people will pay attention to your lessons if >>they have confidence that you can walk the walk.

 

I never claimed to want to teach my methods here. I claimed this was about bettering myself as a trader and helping me to stay focused on my best ideas throughout the day. In fact, I recently posted that I was glad that most people don't really tape read like me.

 

Also, please don't spread misinformation about my product. I have an advanced time & sales display which can consolidate aggregate orders and do other things. It is not a copy of any existing products. And this is not really the appropriate thread to discuss the merits of various trading products...

Edited by Predictor

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>>Actually, if you want to have this conversation, you can be specific about it. No need to >>say "some vendors".

 

Wrong you are not the vendor I mentioned who's product I wouldn't use. Look, its a big world out there and most are only familiar with a small part of it. I don't use charting programs and found them not to work FOR ME. Many people are associated my program with various charting programs and are looking at volume on a bar-by-bar basis something that is possible in my software but that I've never used. However, I would not use any program without testing the algorithms extensively. I'm confident in our algorithms but not so sure about other free stuff/low cost stuff out there... if traders want to believe that stuff works then that's fine with me.

 

Agreed - it's a big world indeed.

 

>>Your posts on here are nothing but an advertisement for your software. That is the >>whole point, right? Let's not consider our audience naive. You would do well not to >>underestimate the readership.

 

If that is true wouldn't you think that I'd mention my company name or my product name? I don't believe I mentioned it once in this thread. You have. Look, I have near perfect knowledge on this matter because I didn't want to develop my own program. It was a huge expensive and developed for my own trading. I know all the products in the space and what they do and am fine with any potential customers knowing the same.

 

You don't need to mention the company name, if you keep saying "my software does xxx" and have a vendor badge under your id, it doesn't take a rocket scientist.

 

>>I will agree that you added features that Jigsaw doesn't have and certainly doesn't want >>or need. That is not our thing. There's lots of unique products out there and a handful

 

Then please quit copying my ideas like dominant side highlighting. This isn't on the video on your front page and is a direct copy of my work. I'm sure you'd copy the rest but it is not a trivial thing to do.

 

Ok - that's a bit much - me copy you?

 

You started developing your software a little over a year ago - just after version 1 of Depth & Sales was released.

 

As you know that highlighting was in version 3, which admittedly is not on the videos on my site as they are all version 1. Still my V3 preceeds your website. What did I do - sneak into your bedroom & take a look???

 

Thing is - that "I didn't eat the biscuits" tact will only work if you don't leave a trail of breadcrumbs.

 

Like your product in October:

21-12-201202-11-57_zpse8bfd4c1.png

 

The product you based it on:

 

21-12-201202-13-19_zps2fd3310d.png

 

And your product now.

 

screen_shot_10n.png

 

I take it as a compliment to be honest but next time - FFS pick your own colors....:doh:

 

>>It's pretty easy to do and it will also erase any doubts people may have about your >>abilities. You could pull up a chart with your trade markers on it to show this isn't video >>attempt 5 of

 

I have no idea what you are talking about. Why does my having an ability to offer superior software have anything to do with my trading ability? Yes, I've had top ranked audited futures systems. I don't think that's important either.

 

Well, if you can't trade, you really shouldn't be offering people mentorships, should you?

 

21-12-201202-18-59_zpse6012ac3.png

 

Plus, all your posts on here might give people you understand what you are talking about. Heaven forbid someone might actually put money on one of your posts.

 

Anyway, the bottom line is that if you can't trade, then you are unlikely to produce anything meaningful for those that can.

 

 

 

>>It is an amazing medium. After all, if you are truly altruistic in your wanting to teach >>here, then you should understand that more people will pay attention to your lessons if >>they have confidence that you can walk the walk.

 

I never claimed to want to teach my methods here. I claimed this was about bettering myself as a trader and helping me to stay focused on my best ideas throughout the day. In fact, I recently posted that I was glad that most people don't really tape read like me.

 

Also, please don't spread misinformation about my product. I have an advanced time & sales display which can consolidate aggregate orders and do other things. It is not a copy of any existing products.

 

As for your advanced time & sales - very good, not a copy (like the color scheme), just an idea that popped into your head atter looking at my web site...

 

Anyway - I am going to give you YOUR lesson 1 in my next post

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Dio... you are way out of line

 

Take a look at this video.. it was also shared in October on the same exact day!

 

Orderflow Reversal - MarketPredictor's library

 

Now what were you saying? Click details and you will see date it was posted.

 

Well that is only 6 months after the feature went into Beta on Jigsaw and 4 months after it went live.

 

21-12-201204-10-39_zps4e2d3071.png

 

Amazed it took so long to be honest.

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DionysusToast: You've shown yourself to be full of dishonesty here. "Amazing took so long to be honest? I've about about had enough of you. You shown a video I made on a certain date and implied that we implemented the feature after you because of that video. I just happened to take a look and see I had a video uploaded the exact same day with the feature you claimed didn't exist at that time. This shot down your theory pretty fast.. instead of apologize you try to twist what was said.

 

I didn't say a word about when we first introduced this feature. I just noted I had never seen it before in another program. Obviously, it was in place months before I made a video on it.

Edited by Predictor

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Dionysus: I have a better idea. What about you stop bombarding me with false accusations and troll questions? What about you stop spamming this thread with your own insecurities about your software.. and apparently trading abilities too.

 

As a fellow tape reader, I hoped you'd bring something to the table here but you're close to getting placed on ignore. I will lead by example: next post.

 

How much is it for mentoring again?

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The Australian Dollar has been rising against the USD for seven consecutive days, similar to the NZD and the Euro. However, the AUD is performing better than the GBP, JPY and CHF against the Dollar. However, investors should note that the bullish price movement is largely being driven by the weakness in the Dollar. The US Dollar Index has fallen 0.50% this week and trades at a 3-week low. The Australian Dollar on the other hand is witnessing mainly bullish price movements depending on the currency pair. The Australian Dollar is increasing against the GBP, Euro, Yen, and the CHF but is declining against the NZD. So here we can see there are no major conflicts between the two individual currencies. However, investors will need to continue monitoring the US Dollar Index and price condition of the AUD against other major currencies. The AUDUSD is trading above the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average and above the “Neutral” level on the RSI as well as the Bollinger Bands. These three factors indicate a further bullish trend as the asset is yet to be read “overbought” on most oscillators. In addition to this, the asset has managed to break above the resistance level and the previous high, meaning the continuation of the traditional wave pattern. The only negative indication when evaluating technical analysis is the measurements of the previous 4 impulse waves. The average bullish wave size is 0.87% and the largest has been 0.92%. The current impulse wave reads 0.87%. Therefore, if the pattern is to continue the price may retrace soon, even if it is going to continue rising thereafter. However, this cannot be known for sure. AUDUSD – Fundamental Analysis In the Meeting Minutes, representatives stated more fear about the remaining risks of a premature decline in rates than about a persistent period of high interest rates. Against this background, markets are reconsidering the timing of a possible easing of the regulator’s position in May and June. According to the CME Groups FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a May adjustment is currently anticipated at 30-35%. A strong possibility is considered anything above 70%. Next week’s Core PCE Price Index will be key for the Dollar as this will be the last inflation reading for the month and short-term future. If the PCE Price Index is also higher, this means all 5 inflation readings beat expectations. As a result, the Dollar may rise. However, the Dollar’s issue is that the market’s risk profile is high, and many expect the Fed to cut first. Therefore, the Dollar may continue to struggle unless other central banks become more dovish. Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate is lower than the Fed’s, analysts expect the Fed to cut first. Even though GDP Growth in Australia is weakening, the economy is still performing better than Europe and the UK. In addition to this, inflation is still above 4.00%, which is extremely high for the Aussie and the Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.1% which is still manageable according to analysts there. Therefore, most analysts believe the RBA will cut in the third quarter and after the Fed. Therefore, fundamental analysis is slightly in the Aussie’s favor here, but technical analysis will need to continue signalling a rise. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $GOOG Alphabet stock back to 143.09 triple+ support area with bullish stats, $GOOGL , see https://stockconsultant.com/?GOOG
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