Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

2012trader

Do You Use The Elliott Wave To Trade?

Recommended Posts

Hi Siuya,

 

What do you mean by "value bet" in this context?

 

 

(one reason I dont really like poker jargon (analogies fine) in trading :2c:)

 

A value bet in trading for me is in the context of what the market is doing (people talk about the flow, the mood, the pattern etc) and then how best to react to it. The value is in knowing how to play it in the context of the pattern you recognise it as. (The word value has a few meanings as well - value of the context, value of the pattern, value of the pattern in the context, value of the strategy to apply given the context and the pattern)

 

We look at patterns for a reason - they are meant to work in a particular way. If they dont then what else will/can they do....and then you can play to where the value is in that pattern as it plays out.

There is more than one way to play something, and the flexibility to go either way, or the ability to play only to your strengths is important.

 

so what I mean in this example is that - if you think this is a possible 5 wave move in the EURUSD that has been slowly grinding up, there are a number of ways to play it - I stated a few. ie; if you think this pattern is genuine, and valid, then where is the value in the pattern.

- if you are bearish, then you go with the move down, but recognise that a tight stop has more value at this stage than a loose one....why, because markets do react, and so at this stage it might collapse but its more likely to react violently.

- if so you can choose to either try and pick the bottom - wave equality, first reaction, three line break, whatever.

- if not you can ride it.

 

However if your strengths are in going long, or your naturally bullish, or still bullish for what ever reasons, then you best bet (value) is in picking the bottom as a long.....as the pattern implies the end of a reactionary move in a grinding up trend.

 

So you can get lots of value out of it either way.....point is as often said here that things are strategy/system dependent and that various patterns have various ways of playing them and the value is how to do it.....regardless of which (long or short) is right and works out. Think of the best case scenario - short, buy it near the bottom, reverse and go long....now that's trading!

 

(I hope that makes sense)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m awful (but I’m not as bad as they say I am), but I won’t disrespect you and call you an anal-yst ;)

I see and know what you’re saying and I won’t really try to convince you. The whole business of wave phenomena has a better explanation, imo, in Summation of Cycles anyways. But for other readers who may be exploring serious EW – if you’re really going to get into EW, build a construct grounded in the principle that if it’s not impulsing it is correcting … and in that context, price always DOES get the memo … and that EVERY corrective wave does have a logical count … comprehensive coverage (without "silly X's and Y's and who knows what else" ) is accomplished by adding a few more ‘patterns' to your repertoire ( ie make sure you fully understand Neely )

 

Example: To “ If a five wave EW pattern has a wave 4 that overlaps wave 1 slightly is it not a 5 wave EW pattern. The unbending rule followers say no it is not. “ I would respond – as true impulse is so rare, if a 3rd wave hasn’t cleared 1 enough to make any overlapping a very tiny possibility, an alternative corrective count is always indicated / advised anyway. With the overlap it likely still IS a correction, not a bull or bear impulse. The ‘time’ spent in clear impulse is minimal. ‘Time’ spent in ‘obvious’ 3 wave corrections is also minimal. Combined those ‘logical” / pretty / easy 5’s and 3’s, make up far, far less than 50% of the action. To master EW, the real work is knowing where you are in each (usually complex) correction (and that "it" is actually present 100% of the time …)

 

...

… Assume discontinuity... ie avoid settling and assuming continuity!

“The way of the Tao is reversal“ L. Tzu...

 

...again, my posts herein are for those who might be considering seriously studying EW - not for those who have been curious and have formed some impressions ... and not for those who occasionally see a wave ;) - not that there's anything wrong with occasionally 'seeing' a count...:rofl:

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

...

 

... my posts herein are for those who might be considering seriously studying EW - not for those who have been curious and have formed some impressions ...

 

 

 

Sorry, zdo, I keep my mouth shut! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've studied EW for years and have a nice collection of books, software, newsletters, and a thick binder of personal notes. My conclusion up to this point: there is never a need to count past 3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ever do any broceanography?

Counting waves to scarf the big rhinos? Avoid close outs? Predict an A-frame?

11ths and 17ths … sometimes… sometimes not

ie works for a few sets then doesn’t…

 

frankfx, I would make sure your friend's failure was attributable to EW itself...

there's a huge difference btwn knowing EW and being able to successfully trade EW...

one of the best utilizations of the theory is in measuring and setting risk... don't know his particulars, but it sounds like he didn't get that part

 

not that knowing isn't important though...

In fact, most standardized, simple EW is so incomplete it is dangerous... I've never seen an EW artist thrive who wasn't way up on top of bifurcation... an aspect of the process most 'knowledgable', practiced, time spent studying EW'ers have never considered or even heard about ... and won't read about in most books or articles on the subject either...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mit,

 

In replying to my posts, I hope you are just trying to save ppl from the elliotwave with these posts. No need to be very concerned though... TL is no place for budding Elliotticians… they wouldn’t bother…However, it is the very nadir-ishness of EW herein that interests me…

 

Here’s a little bit of perception management review on how I see EW.

Trading Chaos by Bill Williams - Page 2

"Then one day it hit me – there is not one Elliott Wave pattern (and how it unfolds for real instead of the way it’s ‘supposed’ to) that can not be fully comprehended via the Summation of Cycles principle…" zdo

 

I keep posting ‘about’ it now for weird reasons. It was an Elliotician who correctly gave me a studied opinion in Feb 99 that the most likely outcome was a long sideways correction in index prices, and that in dollar adjusted terms it would be a more serious correction, that it would entail increasing institutional (funds, hft, ‘professionals’ ) influence (with accompanying decreasing ‘public’ participation)... and less and less interest in EW's ?? Fortunately, I ‘resonated’ with his projection and that was a catalyst in much adaptation and development in my trading – not going deeper into EW btw, but diversifying into methods to exploit corrections and congestions .

 

“That which is unsustainable WILL collapse” period.

… same person also advised me that circa 2013 was likely another ‘sea change’ time in the big (not all elliott) waves in the sky…. for a time, more ‘crowds’ in more time frames would look elliotty again – for a time, impulse waves would be clearly impulse waves… So, it’s not really about ElliottWaves per se… an ElliottWaver was just the catalyst. I’m just preparing to make major adaptations again in my trading … hopefully, I’ll stay nimble enough…

 

EW is a social study – and notice I didn’t use the ‘social science’ term. If I were to use it, I would never drop below a day time frame and even that fast would probably be a mistake. (but ironically, for anyone who is interested, EW has less hook up with phi harmonics on the longer timeframes than it does (episodically) on the short time frames – go figure :) )

 

 

 

 

It still appears that the market did not care about the triangle and dropped when something it did care about happened.

Now he is saying he expects 5 waves down now that this pullback is underway and that we have only had 3.Not sure why he has that bias.Since the main trend is up i would have thought that 3 waves counter trend would be more likely

“Then one day it hit me – there is not one Elliott Wave pattern (and how it unfolds for real instead of the way it’s ‘supposed’ to) that can not be fully comprehended via the Summation of Cycles principle… “ zdo

...in several of my systems, if a setup occurs I’m getting in period – even if price is ANYTHING but confirming it

 

 

in general,EW's.always appear to be bearish in far greater numbers rather than neutral or bullish....or is that just me?
Must be you. ;)

.. in the big picture I described above we are in a long bear correction… don’t know for sure, but maybe even logically, there would be more neutral or bearish formations forming in such an environment… yet... perception is worse than reality most of the time and

perception is leaky in any case... so...

 

 

 

….

 

yep, it must be you. ;) …otherwise I would have to be surprised there’s no Beyond Elliott thread by Mitzu ever?

but sadly no widening the horizons here

just closure, shutting down… and digs

 

Since the main trend is up

??? wtf mit

Again, more shutting down, instead of going ‘beyond’. ;)

See http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/12423-beyond-taylor-45.html#post161924

Please open us a Beyond Trend thread :rofl: ;) .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Real Crisis: "People Have Lost Trust In The Government And The Market" | ZeroHedge

I noted this because it reminded me of something my old EW teacher told me way back in the late nineties… while he was (very accurately, btw) projecting the decade + ‘correction’ that started ~ 2000 . He termed it something like “the stock markets will all be institutional by the end of it, the public will be out…”. I didn’t understand… (:haha:still don’t really :) ) … but

 

Good EW work = quality socionomics work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.