Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

Recommended Posts

Friday it poked its pinbar nose thru the 61.8% ret level - for a 3rd time recently. If you are mainly referring (as all good permabulls do) to the up days of Weds/Thurs price wasn't in position yet. Time was with 5 day up move after previous two 3 day upswings. Pattern was a little indecisive.

 

So from the way I look at things, time was ready, price became ready late Friday which makes 2 out 3. But entering once price has dropped is definitely not with odds no matter how I look at it.

wed ...thur.... friday session = higher lows higher highs. I define that as a short term uptrend and would be bullish until i saw it break south of the previous bars low..in this case...fridays (last session) low. Odds favor it breaking south of Fridays low on monday because of selling on fridays price rejection. So, how would I trade this? If it breaks fridays low i would take a chance on shorting and short once it breaks the low. If it continues on down during mondays session and tues i would just stay with the short until i saw a reason to jump ship. However, if it breaks Fridays low then reverse strong back up thru it i would ditch my position reverse and go long. Nevertheless, i say odd favor shorting this session (monday). Time will tell.

 

So what are you saying? Shorting opportunity is over and you would be long? Why would you go long when price action showed all that selling on fridays bar? I am not saying you are right or wrong as you may well be right (if you are saying price setting up to go up). It may well do so. I am just saying odds favor DOWN next session or two. But if it does the opposite of what I think will probally happen then i would be quick to reverse and go long as that would indicate bulls overcoming bears from friday and uptrend will probally continue.

 

So....if you would take position right now for mondays session what would it be? Long or short?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Minimum target of 1327.55 for gold this week coming up.

 

Silver likely to bottom around 19.468, if it hasn't already. And can lift off hardcore, taking it above $21 toward around 21.30 level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold forecast for the week of August 18, 2014

The gold markets did very little during the course of the week, essentially going sideways. The candle looks as if it’s showing support at the $1300 level again, so it’s not a surprise to see that we ultimately went nowhere, especially considering that this is an area of such great interest. With that, we are not interested in this market from a longer-term perspective as far as trading is concerned. However, we do believe that ultimately the goal market will go higher, so perhaps purchasing some physical gold may be the way to go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The opposite.

 

After considering time, price, and pattern odds favor shorting when price moves up, not down. Down is too late.

 

Same in reverse for up trades.

still too late? How did that long position go?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"Other investors are convinced that they can predict the future,

and I believe that's where our profits come from"

 

John W. Henry

if there is no attempt at predicting...anticipation..forecasting..educated guessing..then it is all a game of chance..a dart board..a flip of a coin..a what is to be is to be and that is to be cannot be known or calculated or guessed or probabilitized. So, trading is a wild chance with yours being as good as mine requiring no skills..foresight..and nothing to get figured out..worked up..or devised. Furthermore, PA...indicators...volume..setups...patterns all mean NOTHING...a waste of time...MEANINGLESS trivia that cannot help atol...might as well draw straws and trade..no need for charts...price action..setups..just need to know the present price..flip a coin..heads for UP tails for DOWN and place your bets gentleman.. Lets keep it simple. A quarter will suffice..A dime will work too. :rofl: :helloooo: :haha: :missy: :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The opposite.

 

After considering time, price, and pattern odds favor shorting when price moves up, not down. Down is too late.

 

Same in reverse for up trades.

Here this chart will help us visualize PA. So, what did price do from the bar that indicated weakness and where i said the probabilities favored shorting? Fibs sometimes..many times...lie.

image.thumb.jpg.e012d72915f30b79e9787151a0da8d33.jpg

Edited by Patuca

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold will most likely head back up now over the next few daily bars. There exist a small chance of one more little push dwn before it heads back up but the odds favor it heading back up with or without another push down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CME Group Lowers Margins For Gold, Silver, PGMs, Copper

 

CME Group is lowering margins for Comex gold, silver and platinum group metals futures, and the new rates will be effective as of the close of business on Friday, according to a notice from CME Group late Thursday.

They also lowered copper margins, but those will be effective as of the close of business Monday.

The exchange operator said the changes were the result of “the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”

Margins act as collateral on futures trades. CME Group also changed margins for electricity, crude oil, natural gas futures and a number of other products.

In the case of the main 100-ounce gold-futures contract, CME Group trimmed the “initial” margin for new speculative trades to $5,060 from $5,940. The “maintenance” margin for existing speculative trades, plus all hedge positions, was cut to $4,600 from $5,400.

For the 5,000-ounce silver contract, CME Group lowered the initial speculative margin to $7,150 from $8,250. The margin requirement for maintenance speculative positions, plus all hedge trades, was lowered to $6,500 from $7,500.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Split Views On Gold’s Price Direction For Next Week

 

Survey participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey are split over their views on gold, with no one group capturing the majority but a nominal number lean bullish.

 

Out of 37 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, nine see higher prices, six see lower prices and seven see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Year-long consolidation in Gold prices should end soon. A strong trend period should follow once the symmetrical triangle is resolved in one direction. Volatility has decreased on weekly scale and this increased the likelihood of high volatility period in the following weeks/months. Boundaries of the consolidation stand at 1,270 and 1,360 levels. Breakout above 1,360-1,400 area will push gold price higher towards 1,525 levels. Breakdown below 1,250-1,270 support area will result in another downtrend towards 1,150 levels.

gold.jpg.39e5a036b27f31442d19dd5f080c44dd.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Survey Participants Split Over Gold Price Direction For Next Week

 

Survey participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey were split again on their views for gold-price direction for next week, with only a nominal number bearish.

 

Out of 37 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, eight see higher prices, nine see lower prices and five see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $VKTX Viking Therapeutics stock attempting to move higher off the 64.24 support area, volume 47% above normal, https://stockconsultant.com/?VKTX
    • Date: 26th April 2024. Alphabet Easily Beat Earnings Predictions But Focus Shifts to Today’s PCE Data. Microsoft and Alphabet’s earnings reports beat expectations pushing the NASDAQ to the top of the charts. The Bank of Japan keep interest rates unchanged applying pressure on the Japanese Yen. The Yen Index declines 0.36% and is down 40% against the USD over the past 5 years. The US GDP growth rate falls below its 2.5% expectations, reading 1.6%, but economists advise the Fed may only cut once in 2024! The market turns its attention to the Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. USA100 – Alphabet Easily Beat Analysts’ Earnings Predictions and Sees its P/E Ratio Fall! The price of the NASDAQ ended the day higher and rose to a slightly higher high. As a result, the index is close to forming a traditional bullish trend and making Wednesday’s decline a retracement or medium-term correction. In terms technical analysis, indicators are mainly indicating a reverting price condition where the asset cannot maintain longer term momentum. However, momentum indications provide a slight bullish bias. The upward price movement is being driven by earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet which beat earnings expectations. Microsoft is the most influential stock for the NASDAQ while Alphabet is the third most influential. Alphabet’s earnings beat expectations by 21.61% and revenue rose more than $6 billion. As a result, the price of the stock rose 11.56% after market close. Furthermore, Microsoft’s Earnings Per Share beat Wall Street’s expectations by 3.40% and revenue by 1.50%. The stock rose by 4.30% after market close and is close to trading at the all-time high. However, investors should note that from the “magnificent 7”, Alphabet and Meta have the lowest Price to Earnings ratio. Meaning these stocks are the most likely to be trading below their intrinsic value. However, investors should note that negatives for the stock market in general remain. This also supports the bias shown by technical analysis. The GDP growth rate fell considerably below expectations while inflation data continues to show signs of rising prices. Investors will closely be monitoring today’s Core PCE Price Index which is the most watched index by the Federal Reserve. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. If the index reads more than 0.3%, a rate cut will become unlikely making stocks less attractive. Whereas, if the PCE Price Index is not as high as expectations, Bond Yields will likely decline, as will the US Dollar and a rate cut will be put back on the table. As a result, investors may look to take advantage of the strong earnings and continue purchasing stocks. USDJPY – BOJ Hold Interest Rates Unchanged! The price of the USDJPY exchange rate again rose to an all-time recent high after increasing in value for 3 consecutive days. Trend and momentum-based indicators point towards a higher price. However, the exchange rate is trading within the overbought range of most oscillators and is also showing a divergence pattern. Both are known to indicate a decline, but not necessarily a complete change of trend. The Bank of Japan’s statement from earlier this morning was largely “dovish” and gave no clear indication that the central bank wishes to keep rising interest rates. However, shortly the Governor will answer questions from journalists and may give a more hawkish tone. Either way, investors are mainly concentrating on if the Federal Government will again opt to intervene within the currency market. Most economists believe the intervention will only come if the USD continues to rise and it will not be before the Core PCE Price Index. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • 📁 Population in 2100, as projected by UN Population Division.   🇮🇳 India: 1,533 million 🇨🇳 China: 771 million 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 546 million 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 487 million 🇨🇩 Congo: 431 million 🇺🇸 US: 394 million 🇪🇹 Ethiopia: 323 million 🇮🇩 Indonesia: 297 million 🇹🇿 Tanzania: 244 million 🇪🇬 Egypt: 205 million 🇧🇷 Brazil: 185 million 🇵🇭 Philippines: 180 million 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 177 million 🇳🇪 Niger: 166 million 🇸🇩 Sudan: 142 million 🇦🇴 Angola: 133 million 🇺🇬 Uganda: 132 million 🇲🇽 Mexico: 116 million 🇰🇪 Kenya: 113 million 🇷🇺 Russia: 112 million 🇮🇶 Iraq: 111 million 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: 110 million   @FinancialWorldUpdates Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • “If the West finds itself falling behind in AI, it won’t be due to a lack of technological prowess or resources. It won’t be because we weren’t smart enough or didn’t move fast enough. It will be because of something many of our Eastern counterparts don’t share with us: fear of AI.   The root of the West's fear of AI can no doubt be traced back to decades of Hollywood movies and books that have consistently depicted AI as a threat to humanity. From the iconic "Terminator" franchise to the more recent "Ex Machina," we have been conditioned to view AI as an adversary, a force that will ultimately turn against us.   In contrast, Eastern cultures have a WAY different attitude towards AI. As UN AI Advisor Neil Sahota points out, "In Eastern culture, movies, and books, they've always seen AI and robots as helpers and assistants, as a tool to be used to further the benefit of humans."   This positive outlook on AI has allowed countries like Japan, South Korea, and China to forge ahead with AI development, including in areas like healthcare, where AI is being used to improve the quality of services.   The West's fear of AI is not only shaping public opinion but also influencing policy decisions and regulatory frameworks. The European Union, for example, recently introduced AI legislation prioritizing heavy-handed protection over supporting innovation.   While such measures might be well-intentioned, they risk stifling AI development and innovation, making it harder for Western companies and researchers to compete.   Among the nations leading common-sense AI regulation, one stands out for now: Singapore.” – Chris C Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • $NFLX Netflix stock hold at 556.59 support or breakdown?  https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.