Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

VTK

Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price

Recommended Posts

Here is a video that changed mine whole view on trading.It made a one trick pony out of me when it comes to trading:)

Sam is tha man when it comes to simplicity and reality of markets and i am lucky that i had chance to learn from him and other instructors.

Hope it will help some one as it have helped me!

 

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=ce6ffc12-bae8-415f-bb23-13d3a6771192

 

Regards!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sam's videos are good for beginners. Solid basics and common sense. I wish the Fed had that much. I also wish every trader should/would watch Sam's videos. As I have traded, I have found a whole other realm of supply and demand zones. It's like 2nd generation supply and demand. It's really crazy and a little creepy how zones work out sometimes. IE:FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free

 

I've also really learned a lot about these zones from consult-fx.com and another trader by the name of Phil Newton! He's awesome too.

Edited by doubletop11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the video he gives an example of Supply and Demand on the trading floor. He states that the Supply and Demand can be seen on a chart, and you have access to the same information that the people on the floor have with the actual pieces of paper right in front of you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He also talks about the Bank Order Flow as being represented by a zone of consolidation. When you see that narrow band of consolidation in price on a chart, he says that it represents the Bank Order Flow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sam is great guy,simple and without any crap in his thought flow when it comes to trading.He is also a very profitable trader.After couple of years spend in XLT with Sam and Steve i can tell that for me there is no better strategy out there.Simple,straightforward,can be used in any and all markets,any timeframe.I was lucky to stumble upon Sam in beginning of mine education.

When i see on chart indicators,oscillators,eliot this and fibo that...i just get dizzy,like motion sickness.I feel more than comfortable putting limit orders placed on key levels of supply and demand,just naked charts.

Someone said those videos are great for beginners.I would strongly suggest to anyone to watch his videos on FXStreet.Having eye on those levels while using any other strategy can save some money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you see that narrow band of consolidation in price on a chart, he says that it represents the Bank Order Flow.

 

Most of stuff that we see on charts is representing bank order flow as banks are running the show in FX.

Area of consolidation is where it appears that supply and demand are in balance(they never are in total balance)

When strong move happens after some consolidation that is indicating imbalance of supply/demand equation.Stronger the move-stronger the imbalance is.Usually volume on best levels is low as few orders were filled.So when price comes back it usually meet significant amount of willing buyers/sellers.Those are trades that i am looking for.

When i sell,i sell to someone who is buying after rally in price at price level where supply exceeds demand.Other way around when buying..Basically,as Sam likes to say,we are identifying novice traders and those guys are other sides of our trades.

Cheers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can someone tell me exactly how those pivot point highs and lows are defined? In that period of sideways consolidation, there are two lines. How do you determine exactly where to put those two lines? Are the lines based on the highest close and the lowest close within that area?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Can someone tell me exactly how those pivot point highs and lows are defined? In that period of sideways consolidation, there are two lines. How do you determine exactly where to put those two lines? Are the lines based on the highest close and the lowest close within that area?

 

There's a software out there that does it automatically for you. It's called APA zones. I use it and it works really well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
:( But I want to create my own program. Now I'm so sad.

 

No need to create a program to recognize those patterns if one knows what he/she is doing.

I see those patterns all over the place on any timeframe but that doesn't mean that i am trading every single one.Would go broke sooner than later by doing it so:)

In his FXStreet videos Sam explains how to draw lines around levels so if you are interested take some time and watch those vids.Better to hear it from tha man than from my self;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a couple things with zone that Sam doesn't explain but I've pick up from other sources on the net like Phil-Newton, consult-fx.com. After you understand how to draw zones things will be easier. This is real support and resistance!

There's this thing with APA zones called confluence of zones. IE: multiple time frames have to have the same zone right in the same place. You need at least 3 time frames of the key timeframes for price to stick and start a new trend in a zone for intraday trading. about 95% of the time this will be the daily low/high. Bigger time frames hold more weight than smaller timeframes so unless you can consistently plot and keep track of the zones you may have some trouble with zone trading execution.

Secondly, bounce count is extremely important. The more times zones are retested the weaker the zones are. It's like chopping down a tree. Sometimes it hard to identify this when you are manually drawing zones and it goes outside of the zone range that you thought price would stay inside of. APA zones does a great job of this by changing the color of the zones for you after price as for sure left that zone.

Zones can be amazing conter-trend and very solid for entries in trend movements to if you miss the reversal. The reason being is they identify the real reason price moves. It's not because some indicator is overbought or over sold. It's all about understand supply and demand at its core. Personally, this stuff has proven its self time and time again. Pivot points, Fibs lines, channels, now all seem inferior to this level of zone theory. The sublime thing is how simple zone theory is. It does really help to know candle bar patterns and reversal bars. If you know strict price action trading, this system just helps make you extremely profitable. It really keeps you out of the market during the chop. and stops you from overtrading.

So concludes my dissertation.

Here's a quick example of the monthly zones and how it all works. The movement that we have seen in the past several weeks has been totally calculated. If you had subscribed to APA zones we all caught this thing down so far.

 

Here's my monthly charts FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free

Edited by doubletop11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There's this thing with APA zones called confluence of zones. IE: multiple time frames have to have the same zone right in the same place.

 

Thanks, that makes sense.

 

Secondly, bounce count is extremely important. The more times zones are retested the weaker the zones are.

 

I hadn't thought of that before. That's good information.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
if you can imagine it,

visualize it,

quantify it,

articulate it,

you can code it.

 

I want someone to quantify and articulate it for me, and then post it here so I can code it, or begin to code it. Maybe I'll search the Easy Language website for some info.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
if you can imagine it,

visualize it,

quantify it,

articulate it,

you can code it.

 

I want someone to quantify and articulate it for me, and then post it here so I can code it, or begin to code it. Maybe I'll search the Easy Language website for some info.

 

you can start by describing your imagination and vision.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you had subscribed to APA zones we all caught this thing down so far.

 

Here is the unfortunate problem. I've become cynical and skeptical about subscribing to trading services and products. Now I have an emotional and psychological block that I just can't overcome. It's about trust. So even though I don't doubt the value of the product, I won't subscribe to it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is the unfortunate problem. I've become cynical and skeptical about subscribing to trading services and products. Now I have an emotional and psychological block that I just can't overcome. It's about trust. So even though I don't doubt the value of the product, I won't subscribe to it.

 

Can't help sympathising with you on this, Tradewinds.

APA looks impressive but will cost $99 / month - good value if performance reflects it. But I wonder if we would be able to learn and apply the principles ourselves to more or less match APA's performance.

Like other contributors to this thread, I admire Sam Seiden's work. But Sam has to be careful in these free presentations, that he doesn't give out information to the extent that he could offend his XLT course students who have paid a substantial sum for their training.

I am sure you have seen or heard him refer to his "odds enhancers", which are a list of conditions that he applies to give weightings to decisions on whether or not to take a trade. I think that is the area in which he has to be careful regarding the breadth and depth of his descriptions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sam has to be careful in these free presentations, that he doesn't give out information to the extent that he could offend his XLT course students who have paid a substantial sum for their training.

 

Yes, it's a difficult balance. Sellers want to attract customers, so they need to provide something to convince potential buyers that their product is good. So we are all playing a bit of a "Cat and Mouse Game" with how much information we divulge, and what cards we decide we don't want to show.

 

The support and resistance zones look quite basic. Programing it would be more difficult. I already have a support and resistance indicator that I've posted, I'd like to try to modify it to show some of the major zones.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tradewinds,

Have you looked at Michael R. Bryant's CPDensity ("Consolidation Pattern Density") EL code?

I've never used it so not sure that it's applicable here - but maybe will help...

 

:crap:

I have some quality, open EL that extends TL's from (near) top and bottom of most recent 'congestion' - but I haven't been able to find it!!! Will keep looking... and will tell you if I've given up.

 

Does anyone know how Seiden would handle absence of these zones in recent part of chart?

 

zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know how Seiden would handle absence of these zones in recent part of chart?

If there is no quality levels at the moment or price is around sup/dem equilibrium then we wait until it comes to a level which meets our criteria.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tradewinds,

Have you looked at Michael R. Bryant's CPDensity ("Consolidation Pattern Density") EL code?

 

No I haven't seen that. Is it publicly available? I did a web search, and found a trading website for Michael R. Bryant and something about Adaptrade Software. If it's free and open to the public, where can I find it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sam Seiden's information is very logical and generally quite easy to understand. It's basically attempting to identify high probability areas to buy and sell. Conceptually it's a little different than traditional support and resistance, but not that much. I like the fact that it quantifies with a numeric scale based on the 6 "odds enhancers" whether to pass on the trade, wait for confirmation, or trade with a resting limit order.

 

The assumption is that there is a higher probability that buyers will buy when price returns to an area where there was previous demand, and sellers selling where there was previous supply. Of course, if it were so simple, everyone would make money (or rather no one would, as there would be no edge if everyone wanted to buy at the same place).

 

Support/resistance, supply/demand, whatever you want to call it, is all relative. What is "wholesale" to one time frame trader (even a larger time frame) may be "retail" to another. In other words (particularly in currencies), there is no "low" and "high" that is absolute--it can always go higher or lower. What determines if price will rise or fall when price reaches that same previous level is not what happened before, but what the current market participants want to do. I would encourage anyone who appreciates the straightforward logic of this approach to try it, and notice how well it works sometimes, and how miserably it fails at others. In its basic form (that is, the information Sam presents in his free online seminars which I have watched almost all of them), the approach does not take into account current market sentiment, or any other factors relating to the "now" that is often so important in trading.

 

Personally I like to use volume in my trading and like to get a picture of prior activity based on a volume profile--Sam does not use volume in his trading, partly because he seems to be very forex-based. Of course, this is also only a picture of prior activity, and does not in itself say anything about what will happen NOW. Whatever approach one uses to identify where to take a trade is only half the story; identifying opportunities based on current market activity is, IMO, just as important to put together with location to make a good trade possible.

 

Either way, I think it's great that Sam gives away some good, free information, and would encourage anyone to check it out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm beginning to learn how to use volume in trading(primarily based on wyckoff ideas) and I am a pre med student first and a budding trader second soo... most of my money goes to you guessed it living expenses :D. So my available funds for trading aren't that large so I have a forex account to dabble in. To solve the volume problem I just use the futures which I think are representative enough of the spot thanks to arbitrageurs etc.

 

Great posts over at EL josh I am a mini stalker of yours. Partially because I like your approach to things. Sam Seiden stuff is pretty good and one thing good about his stuff is alot of it is available on the net free from webinars if one does a tiny bit of searching. And most of it is logical at least. Odd enhancers are nice for ideas too. Again based on logical premises like momentum from the level previously etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 12th December 2019. Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.   Policy unchanged Projections unlikely to change much Clues about review sought Style in focus Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Remains Biased To The Downside   USDJPY faces further price weakness despite its price hesitation on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance comes in at 109.00 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 109.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 110.00 level on a break of that area, A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 110.50. On the downside, support lies at the 108.00 level where a break will target the 107.50 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 107.00 level and then lower towards the 106.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further downside threats.        
    • Sterling Advances Barely Hours To UK Elections As Latest Poll Predicts Conservatives Win In just two days from now, a major event that will set the trend for the currency market for the year 2020, the UK elections will be held. In the face of a Brexit extension, UK prime minister had pushed for an earlier election in the hopes of having a majority conservatives win in the parliament which will make the Brexit deal pass through easily. As the clock ticks, with barely less than 48 hours to this epochal event, the newest poll by Survation conducted for ITV’s good morning Britain show predicts a Boris Johnson win by 14 pts. ahead of Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour party. The Brexit deal seemed to give the conservatives an edge as it accounted for 32% of the vote decision while NHS gave Labour party a slight edge. On the overall, a majority vote of 42% was predicted for the conservatives while Labour had 28%. Market Reaction as the Clock Ticks Optimism looms in the market as the prediction of a conservatives win will ease Britain’s exit from Europe by January 31 deadline. The EUR/GBP pair continued to fall till the early hours of today breaking the 0.8411 trend line targeting the 0.8149 resistance level. GBP/USD pair rebounded to consolidate briefly targeting 1.3381 resistance levels. Technical analysis within a 4-hour MACD shows that both pairs may likely touch down. CAD edged slightly higher advanced by USMCA news but yet to consolidate gains. The USD against a basket of five major currencies held steady awaiting FOMC’s minutes due out tomorrow. Against a basket of currencies, NZD’s dominance is the highest. Sterling also gained momentum firmed up by approaching UK elections. The safe-haven, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc remain pressured as major events that will shape the market for 2020 are been anticipated. On the Asia side, significant market activity wasn’t recorded as most currency pairs held steady within a day’s range. In the Asian stock market, not so much activity was recorded being weakened by recently released Chinese PMI numbers. Most of the indexes closed a little lower while US stocks rose swiftly after Friday’s release of US non-farm payroll reports. The outcome of the December 15 deadline set by the US for the signing of a preliminary trade pact will determine the week’s direction and even further into the year 2020. Also due out later in the week is UK GDP figures and ZEW released out of Germany.
    • Date : 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented.  The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”. The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond. USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.