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The Market is heavily short since the Sunday opening and I think the risk is for a short squeeze. So I'm happy to buy when there is evidence that others are doing so. Besides, there was not much of an effort to sell off below the Friday's low.

 

That said, we still are not trending up.

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The Market is heavily short since the Sunday opening and I think the risk is for a short squeeze. So I'm happy to buy when there is evidence that others are doing so. Besides, there was not much of an effort to sell off below the Friday's low.

 

That said, we still are not trending up.

 

Yeah I think there could be a short squeeze on the cards. Like you said before I think, there seems to be a distinct lack of large players today. Not much volume going through either. So that means ask the question what 'locals' will try to do in this situation. Attempt lower earlier turned from good support at 1341.75. Volume skewed to the low end of the range and we retested that level. However, we could only break by 3 ticks and no significant additional selling (at least none that could overpower buying) entered. So shorts could be trapped and there's still the gap to close which locals love. I think the odds are with a test higher based on that but as always, anything can and often does happen. A bit of news or decent sized business entering the market which needs to be done can turn the market on its head very quickly.

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Yesterday then traded lower and didn't find any new sellers really. I don't think it was a great low but we probably need higher prices to motivate sellers. Central banks are suggesting (and confirming in some cases) more easing which normally means one way movement for stocks(up). ES is still in a now 6-day balance so has some room to test higher. The low volume at the 57.00 area will be an important gauge if it gets there. There's no eco releases of huge importance today and remember there's that Fed Minutes tomorrow. Plus there are some important earnings releases on Friday with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. My bias today would be to explore higher prices. That may be in the current balance or it may break out. Of course there could be news so it's worth keeping an ear out for anything.

 

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I'm not saying ES won't go higher, but the caveat is on a day like today, if a lot of people think it should go one way and it can't, there could be increased risk in the opposite direction. Some of the early price action ahead of that 57.00 area didn't look to hot to me. We'll see though.

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Plus, the open was an attempted open-test-drive (OTD) type, testing the 53.75 level. it first got to 56.00 (and actually at that point showed some resistance) then on the 2nd attempt higher only pushed another couple of ticks- as NQ was breaking higher.

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And the EC didnt have any push thru the VWAP and has been selling off... NO Buyers cam eback in at the push up. I have amended my plan and am short from 54.,50 looking for gap fill and then we'll see.

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Been buying 44.50 hoping to get up to the VWAP but this is in slo mo mode. 1st push up was okay but this market has stalled. Of course, 44.50 is the VPOC from yesterday and we're rotating. I will have to wait for a break up or down if this thing fails now.

 

 

13:22 EDT STOPPED AT BE

Edited by bakrob99

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1332.25 is my target here. Big selloff as anticipated and could keep going for a bit. Still early in day. These moves are toigh to get into if you miss the first chance. You sometimes have to suck it up and get in... I missed the first push down... then got short at 1340.25 which I thought was a poor choice but it's done nothing but selloff since then. Something about trading your convictions.

 

 

UPDATE 1332.50 hit close enough for govt work. got long at 1233.00 see if it moves for me.

Edited by bakrob99

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The only buyers around are the guys taking profit from their shorts. The market looks like it wants to go down to 1320 so this might not be the best place to expecta turnaround. But it is 1530 EDT and I'm keeping my eye out for a pop. 1332.25 still holding (sorta).

 

Update: 15:50 EDT: Well, we finally started to move up. Stopped myself out once then got long again and hoping for higher while trailing stop. Who knows. This might find a lot of buyers before the close.

Edited by bakrob99

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Bakrob,

 

could you give us a brief explanation of your chart when you get time ? perhaps you have said more in prior posts so I apologize for having you repeat the answer. Are we looking at the net delta per tick on your bar chart ? I like that if we are

 

John

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Bakrob,

 

could you give us a brief explanation of your chart when you get time ? perhaps you have said more in prior posts so I apologize for having you repeat the answer. Are we looking at the net delta per tick on your bar chart ? I like that if we are

 

John

 

This chart shows the net volume of Upticks/Downticks per 5min bar. I also look at 30 minute but on the 30 minute I use total volume, not the difference and I track the bar's VPOC (highest volume price)

 

I look for buying represent by different shades of green and blue (brighter is higher delta) or Selling (shades of red and magenta)

 

I like to see 3 or more green / blue volume prices at a level of support. In this case we have the standard devaiations with the yellow dashed line being 2 std deviations below the VWAP. I look to trade responsively back toward the VWAP and possible higher rotation.

 

The opposite is true for shorts.

 

That's about it.

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Thank you ! That is a nice visual and if you ever get a chance to post more charts I'd certainly appreciate it. I know it's hard to do that and trade but even after the fact can be very instructive. What charting program is that ? If you don't mind.

 

John

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...That is a nice visual and if you ever get a chance to post more charts I'd certainly appreciate it. ...

 

I have posted charts in this thread and some others. You can see them by reviewing the posts for my User Id (see all posts by bakrob99 under thread tools)

 

... What charting program is that ? If you don't mind....

John

 

It is a custom indicator that I have developed in Easylanguage. As a result it will run in any platform that supprots Easylanguage which was developed by Tradestation. I am using Tradestation 9.0 here.

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By the way, for what it's worth - the 1330.50 low yesterday was the 61.8% fib retracement to the tick on the swing with the low at 1302.50 and the high at 1375 as represented by the last 10 days of trading.

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Last week's low at 1342.25 has provided resistance here. The weekly low is a powerful support-resistance zone. Price will have to break thru with some solid momentum in order for this market to put in new highs.

 

There was significant buying of the 61.8% retrace of the last swing on the daily chart whihc suggests that 1400 and higher could be in the cards if this market rallies today. However, sellers won the battle yesterday so it's unclear whether the market will find buyers today.

 

All eyes are on the FOMC minutes. The market wants to see if easing is likely and if it interprets the minutes as unlikely - then new lows will be made and the 1320 then 1300 areas are likely. On the other hand - if the minutes suggest that easing could be in the plan - then the upside targets of 1384 and then 1402 could be made.

 

In the meantime - expect it to be choppy and rangebound until 2PM EDT.

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In the meantime - expect it to be choppy and rangebound until 2PM EDT.

 

Possibly, although often on days with FOMC minutes/reports due, there is a move early on followed by chop. Could be the drop yesterday was that move though! We shall see :)

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