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TheNegotiator

Day Trading the E-mini Futures

By TheNegotiator, in E-mini Futures

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goodoboy    10

goodoboy
Posted (edited)

a bit late on this one.

 

short 1399, target 1396

 

Failure to break supply line and trend is down for the moment so I want to get on board.

 

Update: +3

Edited by goodoboy

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
Market has already priced in BB easing. Anything less than QE3 and we sell off. Especially after this bogus overnight rally.

 

Apparently there was some chat about ECB getting some more power or something too. I don't know whether we moved off that or not. As this guy points out, FOMC meeting is quite close so I don't know whether even if they are going to ease, whether it'd be indicated today. Remember there's a jobs report the preceding Friday to the meeting and if that were a good one, they may back off. Who know and does it really matter anyway :confused: lol.

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Expanding the balance profile 8/3-8/30 shows a balance around a long-term volume development (highlighted on right-hand orange profile) with 'spikes' tested on either side. Also shows the VPOC to be 1400.00 exactly.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30973&stc=1&d=1346416268

2012-08-31_3.thumb.jpg.65bbe8778fe952e7849db70245985462.jpg

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bakrob99    11

bakrob99
Posted

How I tell whether to buy a breakout through the highs or fade the move.

 

The first chart shows the market pushing the highs of the overnight session (dashed dark red line) and the question is... GO WITH (buy) or FADE (short) this move. One other possibility is DO NOTHING. 3 choices.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30975&stc=1&d=1346418386

 

Next chart shows large BUYERS Lifting the Offer and buying the breakout using a stop market entry (Cyan volume). This is a sign for me that large buyers are getting long here. Now my interest picks up.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30976&stc=1&d=1346418386

 

Next chart shows a shallow pullback. This is an opportunity to get long with as stop below the prior swing low about 6 ticks below.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30977&stc=1&d=1346418386

 

Next chart shows even more buyers aggressively buying here. This is confirmation that the move is correct and you should stay in for higher prices.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30978&stc=1&d=1346418386

 

Next chart confirms the move further. Take profit or hold?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30979&stc=1&d=1346418386

 

 

Final part of this move is evident from the entire chart showing the large move up to within 1 tick of a prior high.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30981&stc=1&d=1346419055

 

 

Take this trade and what does it provide Risk 6 ticks... Potential 39 ticks. 6:5 to 1

2012-08-31_0610_ES_MARKET_RALLY_AND_PULLBACK_-_BUY_YES_OR_NO.png.7108f1af22f633a964811998617f0d52.png

2012-08-31_0615_ES_MARKET_RALLY_AND_PULLBACK_-_BUY_YES_OR_NO_-BREAKOUT_ABOVE_HIGHS_SHOW_BUYERS_J.png.5003a9433729589ca8d640c68b534c9d.png

2012-08-31_0630_ES_MARKET_RALLY_AND_PULLBACK_-_BUY_YES_OR_NO_SMALL_PULLBACK_AND_MORE_BUYERS_ABOV.png.fae012ea9cd5ccdac3ffa70ec8a649c6.png

2012-08-31_0640_ES_MARKET_RALLY_AND_PULLBACK_-_BUY_YES_OR_NO_STILL_MORE_BUYERS_ABOVE_HIGHS.png.b63f992104faa76bfcae25052867088b.png

2012-08-31_0645_ES_MARKET_RALLY_AND_PULLBACK_-_BUY_YES_OR_NO_MARKET_HEADED_HIGHER_STRONGLY.png.03e4e08e5325885eac744aa120f9b3bd.png

2012-08-31_0830_ES_MARKET_RALLY_AND_PULLBACK_-_BUY_YES_OR_NO_HEADS_UP_TO_TEST_PRIOR_HIGH.thumb.png.58f0230425ad6549deb2349e3a84c633.png

2012-08-31_0916_ES_30M.thumb.png.64eb659e2f04e212e508f859d2fb6576.png

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
I like a long around 1402, stop around 1398, target around 1406.50 for today...

 

Maybe that would be good, maybe it wouldn't. Although it's near the top of yesterday's RTH range, I would point out that we'd have moved well over 50% of the ETH range back. Considering the upwards pressure I would think something would have had to have changed and that would make me cautious of buying there. We'll see though, ach. :2c:

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goodoboy    10

goodoboy
Posted (edited)
What'll be with BB today then guys? Big move, threaten to move then back, or nada?

 

I just woke up to see market moving upwards, now its moving down.

 

short at 1407 target 1396, but this depends on what happens depending on all this BB talks. so trade management now.

 

price actions making lower highs for now.

Edited by goodoboy

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ForexTraderX    10

ForexTraderX
Posted
Maybe that would be good, maybe it wouldn't. Although it's near the top of yesterday's RTH range, I would point out that we'd have moved well over 50% of the ETH range back. Considering the upwards pressure I would think something would have had to have changed and that would make me cautious of buying there. We'll see though, ach. :2c:

 

well, just got long again around 1398.25... we'll see...

 

2 pt stop, 2 pt target

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

This is what we did (excluding last move which just touched yesterday's vpoc):-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30982&stc=1&d=1346422156

 

We basically ping-ponged between those high vol areas which are also reflected on rob's charts from earlier. The last retrace on the chart corresponded to the rth mid, rth low vol, overnight vpoc. Was a good short in addition to the one at 1409.25.

2012-08-31_4.thumb.jpg.0ea31037ad3ca437d014a87c093b9b81.jpg

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ForexTraderX    10

ForexTraderX
Posted

well, that's 2 trades in the ES... almost 5 points.

 

I hear what your saying, and the daily PA looked bearish... however, I figured after the run up around 1412 in the aftermarket session, and considering the moves in the euro and crude, etc... I just figured that a retracement back to yesterdays high would produce a big enough of a bounce for me to catch something on.

 

the 2nd trade, well, near the LOD yesterday, a likely lack of liquidity on the offer side, and a news catalyst creating a relative liquidity gap/kneejerk selloff by bernake talk, and I figured we had a perfect environment for a slight rebound back to yesterdays high around 1402.50, but, since I'm done, and want to be done...2 points was a pretty easy pick.

 

good trading

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