Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[goodoboy 10]

will dare to post a trade for the sake of criticism of big felas here :missy:

 

No need to worry on criticism on this thread. I post trades all the time and expect/want criticism. good way to learn.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Looks like both the ES and the NQ have poked above their trading ranges but, at the moment, have failed to hold there. So, they may try again, or they may make a round trip to S (note both found S at their midpoints):

 

 

[bakrob99 11]

So far the ES has paid more for the short side than the NQ which seems to be hanging in and hasn't even made it back to the VWAP. Perhaps higher is in store.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looks like both the ES and the NQ have poked above their trading ranges but, at the moment, have failed to hold there. So, they may try again, or they may make a round trip to S (note both found S at their midpoints):

 

Those balances in terms of RTH volume profiles:-

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Looks like both the ES and the NQ have poked above their trading ranges but, at the moment, have failed to hold there. So, they may try again, or they may make a round trip to S (note both found S at their midpoints)

 

Those who have been following my posts know the drill: breakout/retracement, reversal/retracement. In these cases, however, the retracements occurred before the demand lines were broken. So, one can either wait for the next op or assume the additional risk and take the rets before the demand lines are broken, assuming they break. In this case, they both have.

 

Db

[TheNegotiator 13]

Those who have been following my posts know the drill: breakout/retracement, reversal/retracement. In these cases, however, the retracements occurred before the demand lines were broken. So, one can either wait for the next op or assume the additional risk and take the rets before the demand lines are broken, assuming they break. In this case, they both have.

 

Db

 

For ES, the overnight high is at a low volume price. RTH high last Tuesday was only broken by 3 ticks and Thursday by just a tick. Indications could be that we get some sort of pullback, but then you just don't know what might happen in quiet holiday-type markets. Nothing really of any note due today either so we just will have to see. I'd be interested if we do move lower, whether or not we get any reaction at the 4-day balance vpoc now at 97.75 then if not, whether the balance starts to get tighter with a higher low. Of course the third scenario for a push lower will be a break of the balance low with 87.50(/86.00) important below.

 

If we were to either hold the balance vpoc or just carry on up regardless, next up beyond the overnight high would be 1407.00, 09.25, 11.25 & 12.50.

[goodoboy 10]

long 1399.25, stop 1397.25. target 1404

 

Buying off demand line and pivot point.

[joshdance 10]

Possible buy area for me is 97s, overnight lows. Or more likely, 92.50 - 93.50 -- see profile of last 5 days for reference. I will consider a short if get up to overnight highs and things look right for it.

[goodoboy 10]

long 1399.25, stop 1397.25. target 1404

 

Buying off demand line and pivot point.

 

Breakeven as price did not break HOD on Friday.

[bakrob99 11]

1397 long back up to 1400.50 ... giveing it a shot.

 

tight 5 tick stop

 

Will adjust profit target based on price action and length of time in trade.

 

Update: stopped, just a bit too early probably. Needed another test of IBL .

Edited August 13, 2012 by bakrob99

[DbPhoenix 42]

And the midpoints are reached:

 

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

And the tests of the midpoints fail.

 

Db

[goodoboy 10]

Those who have been following my posts know the drill: breakout/retracement, reversal/retracement. In these cases, however, the retracements occurred before the demand lines were broken. So, one can either wait for the next op or assume the additional risk and take the rets before the demand lines are broken, assuming they break. In this case, they both have.

 

Db

 

Db,

 

What happens in case like the attachment where the supply line broken, yet no retest of the supply to consider the long?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Db,

 

What happens in case like the attachment where the supply line broken, yet no retest of the supply to consider the long?

 

I don't know what all these lines are, but the supply line is broken twice. The first time it fails to exceed the previous swing high, so you have a choice of staying in and hanging on to see if that level is breached or exiting the trade and re-entering the short if that level is not breached (the latter would have the advantage of earning extra points).

 

The second time you have the same options, though in this case you're only two points from S, so you could just exit, collect the money, and take the rest of the day off.

 

The stochastic isn't going to help you in either case.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

This is what I'm referring to:

 

[joshdance 10]

Still eyeing 92 - 93.50

[joshdance 10]

Looking for lower prices, I have shorted this pop.

[goodoboy 10]

The second time you have the same options, though in this case you're only two points from S, so you could just exit, collect the money, and take the rest of the day off.

 

The stochastic isn't going to help you in either case.

 

Db

 

Thank you,

 

Which second time price are you referring to? Which S?

[joshdance 10]

Thank you,

 

Which second time price are you referring to? Which S?

 

Look at the chart he posted. He is referring (I believe) to the second, more downward-sloping line.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Looking for lower prices, I have shorted this pop.

 

I dunno. The fact that it failed to make a new low, plus exceeded the preceding two swing highs, is not a good sign.

 

Db

[goodoboy 10]

took at long at 1397 after a minor break out , and then backtest, stop at 1395.

 

Target is 1402, but need to break 1399 first.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just looking at the balance (probably now 5-day balance) and thinking about the distribution. It looks like quite a bit of the volume has been done above the VPOC at currently 97.50. We've traded ~5m contracts in the balance. The VPOC migrated lower on Friday from 99.25 to 97.75 and today 97.50 although it could easily change back by close. Looking at the volume further, ~60% has traded above the VPOC and ~35% below (VPOC is ~5% on its own). Although overall the way the market is trading has me thinking that there's a decent chance of an upside break, it's also quite clear from the data that sellers are active in this balance. Now what their objectives are and whether or not there are enough of them to really make too much difference remains to be seen. What is clear is that we are building for a break one way or another and despite the summer trading, the break could be pretty decent. In the mean time however, is it not most sensible to trade the market as a range until it actually shows signs it's ready to break?

[goodoboy 10]

took at long at 1397 after a minor break out , and then backtest, stop at 1395.

 

Target is 1402, but need to break 1399 first.

 

Close the trade at 1402.

[DbPhoenix 42]

In the mean time however, is it not most sensible to trade the market as a range until it actually shows signs it's ready to break?

 

I agree. Even though we came close to the bottoms of the ranges, sellers just couldn't push it down that far, and goodoboy picked up on the long signal.

 

As for the volume, I noticed when I drew those first charts that the bulk of the trades in each range were above the midpoint, not evenly distributed above and below. This suggested that we were going up. But that pitiful little thrust didn't amount to beans, and the short signal came quickly thereafter. Now, we'll just have to see.

 

Db

[Vanguard 10]

Thats a solid trade nice profit on that