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Big selling overnight from 33.25 (just below key 33.75) all the way to a low of 1411.00 (which at this point is a poor low). Some headline earnings beats after close yesterday and a mixed 3/6 month spanish t-bill auction already today and Moody's downgrades of Spanish regions. Talks underway right now to finalise 13.5bl of greek austerity. Richmond fed and Eurozone consumer confidence at 10am ET. Greenspan speaking at 12pm (?). Also 35bl US 2yr auction due at 1pm (i think?). Anyway, my view is if we hold below low vol 1417.75, yesterday's low (1416.75) and high vol 15.50, we could test 9's then below the the obligatory 00's and imo the probable magnet at 1396.50 area which was prior balance vpoc and the naked vpoc and close from where the last move up originated from. Above and we have some fairly obvious recent levels with some minor ones in between. Good luck and pick your spots!

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32297&stc=1&d=1350998670

2012-10-23.thumb.jpg.0341fe235a940194e94cc4ef0cd7383a.jpg

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New home sales and House price index at 10am. Then crude inventories at 10:30am. Lots of earnings out already and due after close. The important thing today is the FOMC at 2:15pm. Draghi is in Berlin talking to lawmakers. Greeks have agreed more austerity in exchange for more aid. And there's a 35bl US 5-yr auction due at 1pm.

 

My view from yesterday is we had a pretty balanced day overall. The low looks more secure than the high and given where we are right now, that idea looks like it'll be tested sooner rather than later. Still time to sell off before open though and news can change everything in an instant...

 

Overnight high currently sits just one tick above yesterday's rth high at 14.75.

 

Here's a chart:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32333&stc=1&d=1351082530

2012-10-24.thumb.jpg.20bc90b2daea828577dadc2c059e6920.jpg

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Also,

 

Spanish region of Andalusia requesting aid from Govt- more pressure on Spain to request bailout.

 

FB rallying pre-market + Boeing and Lockheed Martin decent beats.

 

Euro PMI and German IFO missed earlier.

 

ECB Draghi said - falling prices biggest risk to price stability.

 

ECB Nowotny said no need to move interest rates soon.

 

Looks like it's confirmed that Greece have an extra two years to meet budget targets....

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There has been no retracement of note back to the low that formed the bracketed area around 16.75. Maybe quite a few longs trapped on this side.

 

Possibly. If this is the case what would you expect to happen around this area?

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Possibly. If this is the case what would you expect to happen around this area?

 

Longs covering, creating sell market orders, sell off back down to 14.50, 9.00 or possibly 7.00

 

Be interesting to see if anybody wants to trade above 17.50 today........

Edited by robster970

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Longs covering, creating sell market orders, sell off back down to 14.50, 9.00 or possibly 7.00

 

Be interesting to see if anybody wants to trade about 17.50 today........

 

Potentially if it can't get through.

 

Btw, apparently Germans still denying that Greece 2 yr extension has been completed...

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Not necessarily going to be something which continues, but it is worth noting at least that in spite of the lack of directional conviction in the ES it has actually been one-timeframing all session thus far...

 

Yup. Buyers have yet to show up - I think they are loitering below 06.

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Yup. Buyers have yet to show up - I think they are loitering below 06.

 

They were just waiting for a gap fill ... and once the ES filled the NQ took off. I was walking the dog at the time trying to avoid taking a trade in advance of the FOMC ... But I could see a substantial rally out of this hole. ES 1416.75 would be reasonable target. You have to think that large money players would be staying out before the FOMC ... but on the other hand, if they think it's all old news, why not get in a better prices now?

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