Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

r4bb1t

Does Divergence Signals Really Work?

Does Divergence Signals really work?  

163 members have voted

  1. 1. Does Divergence Signals really work?

    • Yes.
      119
    • No.
      44


Recommended Posts

Divergence on price based indicators such as RSI, MACD and Stochastic on time constant charts do not carry the weight or are not nearly as effective/useful as divergences demonstrated by volume/order flow based indicators run on volume bars.

 

There have been significant divergences from such indicators on volume bar charts on at least one of the session extremes in each of the last five trading day sessions in ES as shown below:

Just click to enlarge any of these graphs to see txt, time & dates

tpt535.jpg

 

tpt534.jpg

 

tpt531.jpg

 

tpt525.jpg

 

tpt527.jpg

 

tpt523.jpg

 

tpt519.jpg

 

tpt520.jpg

 

Price makes a poor input to predict price and the passage of time does not motivate price. It is the occurence of trade that motivates the movement of price and more specifically it is an imbalance between buying and selling in that trade that spurs price.

 

 

Cheers

 

UrmaBlume

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do or Die, in your days as a floor trader were you able to witness this phenomenon of price rejection during the consolidation phase of a trend move?

Hi Phantom,

 

Definitely yes, it's a very useful observation. I once met an ES trader who would draw next 4-5 candlestick bars on a notebook every time he felt a reversal is about to happen. He used to trade on 5 minute time frame. There is so much to properly reading the market, now people can see how tough it can be to automate trading.

 

I have a theory why the MACD will show divergence during corrective moves in a trend.

 

....

 

One can oftentimes see indication of price rejection (dependent upon the time frame one is looking at, of course) in the form of hammer bars while no such indication of price rejection exists around the "a" point.

 

However, you may like to rethink about your explanation on what causes divergences. Indicators such as RSI or MACD take only closing prices into account and candlestick shapes will not effect their outcome. I think we agree other than on candlestick shapes. I explained it in the terms of prices closing towards the limits of their past n days trading range Construction of RSI If fact, Relative Strength in context of RSI means simply the measure where a stock is trading in reference to its past range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

However, you may like to rethink about your explanation on what causes divergences. Indicators such as RSI or MACD take only closing prices into account and candlestick shapes will not effect their outcome.

 

Quite the other way around. Closing prices will affect the outcome of the candlestick shape. The hammer is merely a representation of the fact that the closing price of a bar is near its extreme.

 

Its looks like we are actually in complete agreement here...

 

 

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have not read the whole thread since I just discovered it so maybe it has already been said.

 

Divergence does work. Reverse dvg which signals trend continuation gives longer moves on average than regular dvg which signals potential trend shift.

 

Trend is chart specific. So trend on a 1 min chart maybe counter to trend on 5 min or 15.

 

I use volume charts. Dvg based on oscillators alone is not that profitable . If you wait for the osc to actually turn over or cross etc to give a trade signal you may get into a trade to late. This is because oscillators lag.

 

The best dvg is that which does not depend on oscillating indicators. Oscillators can provide you with a accurate read of where you are in the current cycle however the dvg you are looking for is the dvg between price and order flow. This does not lag.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RE: "Price makes a poor input to predict price and the passage of time does not motivate price."

 

W.D. Gann himself disagreed with your statement, UrmaBlume.

 

He said that "when time is up, the market MUST change!"

 

I think I'll go with Gann on this one.

 

 

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It is the occurence of trade that motivates the movement of price and more specifically it is an imbalance between buying and selling in that trade that spurs price.

 

So, if Florida orange crop experiences a severe freeze, the limit move on the next opening was due to the trade imbalance, and not the weather???

 

Many would argue that fundamentals drive price.

 

 

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RE: "Price makes a poor input to predict price and the passage of time does not motivate price."W.D. Gann himself disagreed with your statement, UrmaBlume. He said that "when time is up, the market MUST change!"I think I'll go with Gann on this one.Phantom

 

Not me. I don't believe the passage of time influences price except in the case of premium decay. I believe that changes in price are not motivated by the passage of time but rather are motivated by more buying that selling or vice versa..

 

It doesn't make sense to me that becasue a certain amount of time has passed that prices must reverse themselves.

 

Every single trading day I can demonstrate instances of where as buying volume increased prices rose and vice versa. I chanllenge you to show me a unit of time that changes price in the sub-session time frame on any consistent basis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So, if Florida orange crop experiences a severe freeze, the limit move on the next opening was due to the trade imbalance, and not the weather???Many would argue that fundamentals drive price.Phantom

 

DOH - Obtuse to the max.

 

The freeze itself didn't do anything more than produce the buyers when created an imbalance in trade and it was that buying that drove prices not the fact that it was cold in Florida.

 

If an orange juice producer from anywhere in the world received a huge order and he decided to secure his profits by buying in the futures market - if he bought enough certainly it was supply and demand and in this case buying produced by demand that drove prices.

 

To say that buying and selling imbalances don't push prices to me is a huge non sequitur.

 

 

UrmaBlume

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
mathematically...
Divergences using RSI

 

They can be quantified to a good extent (the analysis can be automated). but the problem is that coding them requires more than just familiarity with ninja/tradestation. I personally know people who have automated their discretionary trading systems and their code runs into thousand of lines.

 

Wasn't really talking about the issue of "quantifying" / coding with the use of the word "mathematically"

I brought this up because in my experience a large percentage of ‘normals’ reading about and looking for ‘divergences’ literally see price as strong and the indicator as weaker… when actually it was price action (of closes in rsi, macd, etc) in the interim btwn the price peaks that created the ‘inferior’ indicator reading.

'Mathematically', the interim action could have produced an equivalent, non diverging, extreme in the indicator and the trading signal still be valid.

ie In the debate about the value or efficacy of ‘divergence’ , absolute indicator readings are just as valuable as divergence readings…context…

It's not as 'mathematically' correct and it looks like he's backing use of indicators out of the mix altogether :offtopic:;), but choicecap1 was getting at the same concept early in the thread with "Divergence is nothing more that price rejection faster at certain level,so if you can identify other indications of where to expect price to have this type of action(sop/resist) then you dont even need the indicator to find it."

 

Do or Die, I don’t think we’re really arguing here. For example you said,

“In fact, Relative Strength in context of RSI means simply the measure where a stock is trading in reference to its past range.”

which to me is ~= to

“‘mathematically’, … divergences are, in large part, created / made possible by the form, extent and duration of the most recent correction before the current thrust which is exhibiting indicator divergence …”

 

“form, extent and duration” would also establish limits on movement away from moving average that create MACD divergences, etc etc.

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RE: "Price makes a poor input to predict price and the passage of time does not motivate price."

 

W.D. Gann himself disagreed with your statement, UrmaBlume.

 

He said that "when time is up, the market MUST change!"

 

I think I'll go with Gann on this one.

 

 

Phantom

 

I never bothered to read/study about Gann techniques, but would agree with you to disagree on that statement written with hubris.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I never bothered to read/study Gann techniques, but would agree with you to disagree on that statement written with hubris.

 

It is said that Gann took $50M out of the markets...mostly in grains.

 

Very esoteric techniques but certainly effective, wouldn't you agree?

 

 

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It is said that Gann took $50M out of the markets...mostly in grains.

 

Very esoteric techniques but certainly effective, wouldn't you agree?

 

 

Phantom[/quote

 

It's impossible to compare trade done today during the information age with trade done during an age of relative ignorance. UB's insights into the market are in keeping with the increased flow of information available to us now. Your argument can't stand.

Gann used time and price because that was all there was available to everyone at that time. Now with more information available people don't need to use proxy's anymore, when they now have actual trading information available.

I'm sure if Gann were here today he'd be using the greatest depth of information available and not the "square of nine," technique he used back then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Your argument can't stand.

Gann used time and price because that was all there was available to everyone at that time.

 

I don't care if he was rolling dice...

 

If he did pull 50 mil from the markets, I'd say that his methods were pretty darn effective.

 

If you don't agree with that statement per se, there's not much else for us to discuss...

 

 

 

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't care if he was rolling dice...

 

If he did pull 50 mil from the markets, I'd say that his methods were pretty darn effective.

 

If you don't agree with that statement per se, there's not much else for us to discuss...

 

 

 

Phantom

 

You should care if he were "rolling dice," chance and luck are hard to repeat. As to whether or not his methods were effective in his day, what difference does it make, as it was back "in his day."

In the now his methods are rubbish and will leave you "hoping" your next trade will work out..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Whatever you say, MAC...

 

Scroll up to the top of the page, you'll notice it says, "Traders Labratory." Everything posted on this forum is open to an objective style analytical debate.

If you don't want your thoughts or ideas debated or refuted simply don't post. Nothing personal, it's just the purpose of the forum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You should care if he were "rolling dice," chance and luck are hard to repeat. As to whether or not his methods were effective in his day, what difference does it make, as it was back "in his day."

In the now his methods are rubbish and will leave you "hoping" your next trade will work out..

 

 

I'm not trying to dis you here, but what about Gann's methods are "rubbish"? Time analysis is very big in the Fibonacci trading methodologies, which are hardly considered out of date.

If you want to reject a person's ideas please explain *where* you think he is wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Everything posted on this forum is open to an objective style analytical debate.

If you don't want your thoughts or ideas debated or refuted simply don't post.

 

I don't mind debate as long as the line of reasoning is somewhat logical. But when one makes blanket statements without any evidence to back them up, then one is simply arguing for argument's sake.

 

I happen to know several successful pros who use Gann's methods in their trading and it involves much more than just the square of nine.

 

I don't use the stuff because, and if you've followed my thread you'd know this already, I'm into simplicity.

 

Anyway, no hard feelings.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not trying to dis you here, but what about Gann's methods are "rubbish"? Time analysis is very big in the Fibonacci trading methodologies, which are hardly considered out of date.

If you want to reject a person's ideas please explain *where* you think he is wrong.

 

I believe that he is wrong in disregarding the fact that trade motivates predictive behaviour and not time. Gann focused on the motivation of time and that's no longer a leading factor in predictive technologies. The length of time a car stops at a fork in the road does not lead you to know where it might go next.

There's just too much more information available than price and time which can give you insight into where price might go. With hardly any movement in price, the internal structure and balance can change tremendously, this is a good way to predict where price might go next, not simply by looking at where price has been.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Agreed since some of the new traders usually lose money in start and some loses more while chasing their lost money and eventually ends up blaming to their brokers part.
    • The crypto market are also in phase of maturing like the forex and other trading assets so we can do much more accurate analysis than before since early days it was purely a luck if the investments in crypto bears results because most of the coins or tokens never come to fruition. Some early birds were also able to make profits on these tokens or coins. e,g., like turtle coin starts with 1 satoshi and go up to 7 sathoshis, quite good rewards. another token lmgx now hovering at 10 started from 1, 
    • How's about other crypto exchanges? Are all they banned in your country or only Binance?
    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.