Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

jughead

Probably Being Too Stupid ?

Recommended Posts

Hi everyone,

Glad to have found this forum , some of the posts have been very informative.

I am engineer working for a bank on the east coast and immensely interested in trading.

Im currently making around 100k a year at an immensely stressful job.

So would have to change jobs to myself the reasonable amount to time to work at improving my minimal trading ability.

 

Just wondering if making a move to a job which pays 80k on the west coast would be financially rational at this point. I have no great track record to convince myself. I have traded a few years back and really loved it back then .

 

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

Thanks for your time,

JJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi everyone,

 

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

JJ

 

Impossible to answer, but there are no stupid questions when it comes to trading as it can be done in a multiple of manners/styles/methods/timeframes, but as you asked for probability......:)

Given the often thrown around number of 95% of traders closing their accounts, I would say you have a 5% chance of succeeding.

Given this and you need to replace some current income stream, a lot would then depend on how much you need to replace and how much you have to trade with.....

so given simple probability from my days in formal education was when faced with "this" and "this" occurring you needed to multiply....

Probability of succeeding * probability of making enough money = Slim

 

However, there is no substitute for a good education, take your time, and the rewards for success are great, either and or both from a monetary point of view, and a lifestyle point of view (they can be potentially devastating from an emotional point of view). It can be done - just dont believe the hype of instant riches etc. (although this is also not impossible)

 

Also ask yourself...... if I dont try this, will I regret it in twenty years? What is the cost of any three year University course? Why not try and get into the trading area in the bank you are working at and train while getting paid? Do I really want to trade, or do I just not want to do my high stress job?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi JJ

Its a tough decision.I hope this doesnt sound too negative but the chances of trading successful these days on the route you are thinking is very slim. Just one thing to consider.

We often fantasize about getting away from a stressful job where we are not working on our own terms to one where we reckon we will be at ease.The "best" path has always been the stressful one due to using it for personal growth. I know this isnt what you really want to hear.

What happens is we get into trading while working at a job we dont like and get so engrossed into trading we find it interesting and fascinating and we split the good into trading and the bad into our stressful job.The trick with Trading is proving we have an edge.

 

 

Prove your method first before doing anything.Do you really have an edge yet ?

 

Just some ramblings JJ

 

good luck in whatever you do mate

 

Best

John

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally if I was looking at a 100K job and it was extremely stressful and basically killing me vs. taking an 80K job where I expected it to be far less stressful, and ideally in a better location I'd opt for the latter without even thinking about the trading element.

 

As far as whether you could get to the point of replacing all of this with trading the answer of course is yes, and no. Because it is highly risky and nobody should tell you that you can't, but everyone is likely to tell you that is will not be easy. And you just might find that the stress you're experience in your current job is a walk in the park compared to trying to trade for yourself full-time and pull an income.

 

I'd approach it separately. Decide on the job, your lifestyle and health first, plus the paycut.

 

Then, I'd focus on starting to learn about trading - think just trading north of positive as your objective - forget about steady income part-time or full-time or seeking something that works like a paycheck because in trading it won't. Even when you're very good the earnings won't be smooth -- big months and down months will be the norm. Once your successful. Risk as little as possible, especially if you take the paycut, in the beginning you're going to lose and lose often but if you keep your account size and positions to the absolute minimum it can be highly educational without the huge risks.

 

And, do your research and get some good training -- it's hard to do this totally on your own. Don't fall for the get rich quick systems but there's some solid educational training out there to at least get a foundation.

 

Good luck!

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

Thanks for your time,

JJ

 

trading is not a career.

 

trading is an addiction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to agree with MMS.

 

You clearly know that regardless of the money you make, the balance between its worth and the stress related to making it is pretty delicate. It is meaningless to live a life of stress simply to live.

 

Faced with that situation, I'd leave to the greener pasture. A couple of reasons really. For me, it would be a reset. Atmosphere is so important. I never think it is too late to start over and frankly, can be very good for the soul.

 

Trading can be frustrating and probably even more so when you want to use it to get away from something...like the stress you have. The fastest way to a blown account and tossing in the towel is rushing. Rushing to make the money to help escape where you are.

 

I don't think anybody is able to give you a yes or no answer nor even a probability score. Perhaps if there were not so many factors involved, an answer could be made. Much depends on you and your utility. Losses, losing money, making money brings out so much in each of us.

 

Is it worth the ride? I think it is. Do I think life is far too precious to be stuck simply because the money is good where you? Most certainly. I tend to give everybody a ton of credit and believe if it is important to them...they will excel.

 

Two cents only.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice reply Justaguy.

 

You bring up a good point as well -- if someone makes the change to try trading, even with perhaps the odds stacked against them (much depends on the training you receive early on) you can always go back.

 

And, will you end up regretting and being unhappy because you didn't take the gamble when you had the chance?

 

Sometimes you have to roll the dice. Know what you're getting into, and clearly accept the risks that it may very well not work, but nothing says you can't go back and at least you can say you tried.

 

And, to save you a lot of pain - do you not buy forex robots, do not buy into automated trading, do not buy into anything where the returns seem too exciting. Instead, pursue something where you win more than you lose, maybe it's a 60% - 65% win ratio, the average wins are at least a bit higher than average losses, and make sure it always accounts for commissions and slippage. That's a winning formula but for most it doesn't excite them since it's not 90% winners, 3:1 reward risk, and all hypothetical with perfect no slip executions or costs. If you put a hard set of demands to whatever strategy you pursue that are realistic you'll save yourself countless time and money.

 

 

I have to agree with MMS.

 

You clearly know that regardless of the money you make, the balance between its worth and the stress related to making it is pretty delicate. It is meaningless to live a life of stress simply to live.

 

Faced with that situation, I'd leave to the greener pasture. A couple of reasons really. For me, it would be a reset. Atmosphere is so important. I never think it is too late to start over and frankly, can be very good for the soul.

 

Trading can be frustrating and probably even more so when you want to use it to get away from something...like the stress you have. The fastest way to a blown account and tossing in the towel is rushing. Rushing to make the money to help escape where you are.

 

I don't think anybody is able to give you a yes or no answer nor even a probability score. Perhaps if there were not so many factors involved, an answer could be made. Much depends on you and your utility. Losses, losing money, making money brings out so much in each of us.

 

Is it worth the ride? I think it is. Do I think life is far too precious to be stuck simply because the money is good where you? Most certainly. I tend to give everybody a ton of credit and believe if it is important to them...they will excel.

 

Two cents only.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JJ,

 

I know this always sound corny when people say it but there is more to life than just money. If someone would have told me that a year ago I would have just laughed at them. However, after ignoring the stress in my life for too long my health took a big hit this year. In fact my doctor told me I was close to not making it. All that to say I would gladly take a paycut if that meant a less stressful job. Life is too short to work yourself to death in order to make an extra buck.

 

Trading isn't easy by any means. You just need to decide what's important to you. If you think it's easy money then you are dead wrong. I have had to work my tail off to become a successful trader. However, if done correctly trading can give you incredible flexibility to do other things.

 

Hopefully you are able to make a decision that allows you to reduce the stress in your life. Trust me you don't want to deal with the consequences of too much stress.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.