Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

I thought I would start this out by posting up some results I've been getting trading Euro Currency Futures (EC). Everyone is trading EURUSD forex which is great. But so many overlook the fact that you can trade Euro/USD Futures contracts and get great results. I've got a UTA spreadsheet that I started backtesting the EC with. I began my backtest on Jan 25th with a 233 tick chart. I backtested a very tight and concise ruleset.


  1. Start time is 8:30 cst (exchange time)
  2. I tested a two position strategy. The 1st position gets out at a fixed target and the 2nd position uses a trailing stop.
  3. I'm using the HVMM 2010 trade strategy
  4. If a trade sets up, while my trailing position is still live, I will take the 'reentry' with the fixed position only.
  5. Quitting strategy was 2 fixed target winners and a positive result or, quit by 11 am cst. The strategy is to take what the market will give while quitting positive on most sessions. Trailing stop considered a bonus trade and didn't count towards quitting goals. The only caveat was that one of the trades had to have made more than just 1 tick to qualify for my stopping goal.


I began posting my live trades in April. Here are the results after 351 trade entries.

Remember, each position is entered as a separate trade, so if you put on two positions as described, you enter each one as a unique trade. So 351 trades is closer to 160 or so actual trades.


  • Wins: 239; Losses: 112; 1 BE
  • 68% win rate
  • Profit Factor: 1.82
  • Expectation .26
  • Total Net Points: + 988 @ $12.5 per point
  • Pre Cost Profit: $12,350


You can see by the diagram below that I started with some losses. In fact, January was relatively flat. But by sticking to it, the tradeplan finally took off and put together a great rally for about 2 months. Then a one step back occurred in April. Finally, you can see the two steps forward kicking in as the winners started to come in again. This is what should expect with a solid trade strategy that is winning about 2/3rds of its trades. One step back, two steps forward. Remember, wins and losses come at a random distribution. We can't control that. But, by backtesting and then posting our real trades into the UTA, we can determine a very real EDGE in the market. So long as we stick to the plan, the odds will work out in our favor and we'll get a natural action move to the upside with our equity curve, and then a reaction that flattens out or draws down some, and then a new action move to the upside again. This is the beginnings of your classic stairstepping equity curve, up and to the right. UTA and the vision it has given me, has instilled the confidence in me to show up tomorrow, and take my trades according to this plan.


Edited by tjnoon

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

We've been trading this dynamic market in our live futures traderoom now for several months using the HVMM strategy. It's proven to be a highly effective and dependable market to trade with lots of action. In this video, we'll take a look at last week's +139 point net result. At $12.50 per point, that's over $1700 on very few trades. Moreover, we'll look at some huge trades that took place with our trailing stop strategy. Unfortunately for us, it happened after we were already finished with our session. The EC has been so active that for those who have 'more trade in them' than our typical and highly controlled 'power of quitting' approach, these set-ups might inspire you to look deeper into the session. And, with our powerful trade analysis tool, the UTA, you could do some specific time of day studies to maybe pinpoint some windows of time when these large moves have a higher likelihood of transpiring. The video also will look at what results would look like by incorporating a very simple fixed fractional money management technique, using a UTA tool.


Check it out here

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey TJ,


I was in your trade room today. I just discovered your room and thought I'd take you up on yur free service. It was great, thanks.. I learned a lot already and can see how important it is to be disciplined. You mentioned UTA a couple times and then I found your furom here on TL. I'm new to this actually so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but what exactly is UTA? You mentioned it but didn't show it in your chat room. By the way, I know you warned against taking live trades without some practice and learning how you call trades, but I decided to roll the dice and go with your calls. Excellent!! You won 4 out of 5 currency future trades and they were very easy to follow. Also, the other traders in the room were very nice and helpful. You've got a great thing going and I hope you do it for a long time to come. Thanks again. I will most definitely be subscribing after my free two weeks.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Glad you enjoyed it Tio.. Today was a bit tougher though, no? It's not always as easy as yesterday. I can't seem to be able to open up UTA while in my traderoom. There's a bug in the system so I can't show it live. Bummer.. But if you have any specific questions about it, let me know. I'll do my best to answer them here for you.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

The EC has been struggling a bit with my strategy these past couple weeks. Most of the action has been occurring in the premarket and overseas session, so by the time I wake up and begin trading the US session, the EC has begun to chop around. Still though, I had a photo finish today and actually won 3 of my last 4 trades this week, with the 4th breaking even with a 1 tick gain. Those last few trades had me finishing mildly positive on the week with +12 points. Not great but it could have been worse. I was down -49 points last week but up +184 for May.


The UTA keeps me steady with the EC though. Currently, after 448 trades, I am sitting with a 66% win rate, which to me, is the sweet spot anyway. Two steps forward, one step back works for me. My equity curve also keeps me very encouraged as it shows that I am sitting just below my equity highs. When I scroll down my win/loss column in my UTA spreadsheet, I can see a few occassions like these past two weeks, where the EC struggled. I also can see how hot it would get in contrast. The hot times way outperform the oppositve affect from the struggling times. The EC is streaky and you just have to be able to deal with the ups and downs of this market. The system I am using is holding solid in the 2/3 win vs 1/3 loss range and I'm comfortable with that. As a result, since Feb 1st (remember the 1st 6 weeks were backtest trades) this methodology has gained +958 points on very limited trading.


I am excited about this coming week and know, based on history and experience that the best trades come after the worst. Sitting just below my equity highs, it is plain to me that I will be breaking out to new profit levels very, very soon. Perhaps this coming week.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Like the BP, the EC has also been holding steady with a 66.25% win rate. It's also sitting just below its equity highs and should breakout to new profit levels any time. Here's the recent equity curve, a la UTA.


Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • "without bearing any loss?"  That's a really tough question n meat.  Are you serious?! "without bearing any loss" - hm?  Can you think of any trade or investment that is completely risk free?  Can you think of any trade or investment that is completely loss free? I've seen even routine, highly reliable ( at the time ) arb's lose money try this - go to japan , borrow 10 billion yen, leave 'japan', go to _________, never make the first payment on principle or interest ... whoops- that has risks too.  try this - start your own bank... whoops that has risks too.  try this - start your own digital cash.  If you play it right, all you risk is your time on the computer and your connectivity costs   ... if you really need to avoid loss, stay away from trading - period! ... bcse you are going to have 'ANY' loss in trading. Better to embrace loss.  Both intra personally and in terms of your capital, make each loss the best, minimum/optimum, loss it can be ...     PS Stick around some helpful soul will tell n meat to get on sim and practice until ... I'll take bets right now it won't work for n meat   PS when is the next Lab meeting?  I have an agenda item to add... TL needs to order new GM mice from a different vendor
    • https://www.wakingtimes.com/2018/08/14/8-things-you-need-to-know-but-probably-dont/ these are not really things traders should know... just sayin'
    • Benjamin A. Rogge
    • Date : 16th August 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2018.

      FX News Today

      Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.880%, 10-year JGBs up 0.7 bp at 0.094% as of 05:35GMT, as stocks move up from early lows on trade talk hopes. Asian sold off early in the session amid concerns over global growth and particularly China, after a Sino-related tech slump saw Wall Street heading south yesterday. Reports that China and the US are preparing a low level round helped to put a floor under markets, however, and mainland China bourses managed to move higher, while other indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.78% and -0.21% respectively. The Hang Seng is still down -0.395, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are now up 0.61% and -0.20% respectively. The Kospi slumped -0.87% after returning from holiday and the ASX 200 is down -0.035. Meanwhile, US futures are moving higher with Chinese markets. Oil prices are slightly up from lows and the September US oil future is trading at USD 65.10 per barrel.

      FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have both weakened, giving back recent gains amid an improvement in risk appetite. The US and China have agreed on a new round of trade talks, while Turkey has managed to halt the rout of the Lira and secure major investments from Qatar and China’s Alibaba. The USDIndex (DXY) is showing a 0.3% decline, at 96.44, heading into the London interbank open, while EURUSD is concurrently showing a 0.3% gain, earlier printing a two-session high of 1.1397, putting in some space from yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1316. USDJPY has settled in the upper 110.00s after printing a low in Tokyo at 110.46. AUDJPY, viewed as a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, is showing the biggest move with just over a 0.5% gain. Over the near-term, the Dollar and the Yen will likely remain apt to weaken before settling as developments on the latest phase of Sino-US negotiations are awaited.

      Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today

      UK Retail Sales – expected to grow by 3% YoY in July.

      US Housing Starts – expected to increase to 1.26 mln in July, compared to 1.17 mln in June, with building permits also expected to increase breaking the 1.3 mln barrier.

      US Initial Jobless Claims – stabilisation to approximately 215,000 slightly up from 213,000 from last week. Continued jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 1.75 mln from 1.755 mln last week.

      Support and Resistance Levels

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • I would like to know any factor before investing that would cause the fluctuation. Please help!

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.