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Found 14 results

  1. EUR CAD, JULY 16th

    Minors: EUR/CAD, JULY 16TH. Today's analysis was for the minor pair of Euro versus Canadian dollar. This trade has already played out and our take profit has been hit. Nonetheless, we would still like to post it as a good example of a trade well traded. In this Intra day trade, entry was nearly at the day's high and exit and stops predefined. Once the trade moved 25 points in our favor the trailing stop loss kicked in and from there on it was a risk free trade, till a few minutes back when our TP was hit giving us 34 green pips for the day. At TradeCuts, no opportunity is ever lost. If one trade is missed , there are newer and fresher ones just round the corner.To take advantage of our analysis and precision entries and exits, do keep checking our updates on the Major, Minor and Commodity pairs. Feel free to write to us and read our blog articles for deeper insights into some of the happening pairs, the latest one being NZD/USD and dont forget to post your comments. Best TradeCuts.
  2. 2013 Review: The Year of the Taper

    The big focus for the forex markets in 2013 was on whether or not the US Federal Reserve was going to start tapering its $85 billion a month bond purchases. It hinted at its meeting in May that it wanted to start reining in its quantitative easing programme unleashing considerable volatility. After some poor communications, volatility and speculation the Fed finally announced in December that it would start tapering at a rate of $10 billion a month. In retrospect it communicated the event well as the markets took it as good news – a sign that conditions are returning to normal. Nonetheless, the run up to the taper saw many emerging market currencies take a hit particularly in countries with large current account deficits, which had become dependent on the Fed's largess. The Euro – a surprise winner Surprisingly, the EUR turned out to be one of the best performing currencies in 2013. On Dec 23 the EUR was 103.79 versus a basket of 21 currencies, compared with 99.22 the same time a year ago. And 2013 didn't start particularly well for the single currency. Amid the usual concerns over the state of the peripheral Eurozone economies one them, Cyprus, had to be bailed out to the tune of EUR 10 billion in March. The political furore which accompanied the whole episode reignited concerns over contagion and even a break-up of the EUR. The Eurozone pulled through and as the year wore on it appeared that the leading peripheral Eurozone economies were beginning to stabilise and even show signs of growth. Meanwhile, German chancellor Angela Merkel, considered by many to be the Eurozone's real leader, won a decisive election victory. Also, the Eurozone managed to make some slow progress on a bail-out mechanism for failing banks. USD shrugs of political paralysis USD was also a star performing currency despite a show of very divided politics in the US, which led to a government shut-down in October 1-16. Democrats and Republicans were eventually able to come to a longer-term agreement over the US budget heading off another damaging shut down in the new year. Against a basket of the major currencies USD was 76.33 versus 73.12 the same time a year ago. But while the politicians were busy arguing the US economy was recovering as was the key real estate market. This enabled the Fed to announce the start of its tapering – a very bullish event for the USD. Also, Janet Yellen was nominated to takeover at the Fed from Ben Bernanke on January 31, 2014. It will be her job to see through the end of quantitative easing, which is unlikely to be a smooth process. Abenomics hammers JPY Whilst the Fed was shifting to taper mode the Bank of Japan was just getting started in a bid to banish deflation and restore growth to Japan. The policy became known as Abenomics with the BoJ aiming to double the country's money supply. JPY was also a target for Japanese officials who desired a rate of UJSD/JPY 100. They got their wish. By late December it was flirting with levels of 104 and looks set for further weakness. UK recovery gather pace The UK economy in 2013 looked its best in five years. With an eye on elections in May 2015 the UK government initiated a series policies to stimulate the all important real estate market and eased up a bit on its austerity measures. Towards the end of 2013 the economy was growing at an annualised rate of 1.9% and real estate prices were rising strongly. This led to the Bank of England deciding not to extend its quantitative easing programme beyond GBP 375 billion. In June, former Canadian central bank governor Mark Carney took over at the Bank of England – the first foreigner to do so. Cable is looking to finish slightly higher than this time last year following a rocky performance between March and August.
  3. Euro Debt Crisis

    This thread is for those who like to discuss about the European debt crisis. I am waiting for your thoughts and predictions to help us in successful trading.
  4. Pegging Definition

    Since countries pegging their currencies to the currency of another country are looking to prevent major price changes, large and developed economies are generally used as the source of the peg. For this reason, the US Dollar is usually used to peg currency values but other currencies such as the Euro and British Pound have also been used.
  5. The Paris Pair was a commonly watched currency pair in forex markets prior to the beginning of trading in the Euro. This is largely because of the significant size of the French economy relative to the rest of the Eurozone.
  6. The Euromarket is characterized by the abolition of tarrifs and fixed import duties. The aim of the Euromarket is to make trade more efficient and centralize monetary policy.
  7. The Eurocurrency Market does not only deal with Euros or European banks, and is simply a reference to the interaction of foreign banks.
  8. Usage of Eurocommercial Paper can be seen in situations where companies take out loans in the international money market.
  9. Monetary policy in the Euro is determined by the European Central Bank and the value of the currency is used as a peg by various trading partners as a means for calming market volatility.
  10. Eur/usd

    I will introduce a new EUR/USD thread. I will frequently post my EUR/USD chart analysis I hope some people will participate and also post their EUR/USD analysis here. Let's share our knowledge!
  11. One of the main responsibilities of the Bundesbank is to oversee the German banking system. Since the country adopted the use of the Euro, the responsibilities of the Bundesbank have changed, and now its members act as a subdivision of the European Central Bank (ECB).
  12. Podcast for Friday 11/11/11 With Europe under mounting pressure to act quickly to tackle its debt crisis, the leaders of Italy and Greece moved forcefully on Friday to reinvigorate their governments and show their sincerity about economic austerity. Financial markets rallied on the news. MF Global fired all 1,066 of its brokerage employees on Friday, triggering anger and resentment about the firm's collapse after bad bets on European debt under former CEO Jon Corzine's leadership. How the abrupt, final blow was delivered upset many staff -- with some learning by e-mail and others through news on the television. "Fifteen years and no severance!" shouted one angry MF Global employee as he left the firm's offices on 5th Avenue in Manhattan after hugging the receptionist and doorman. Email from a CFRN Partner DeWayne, Futures trading is not currently my livelihood, it's a secondary thing. But I wonderabout all those for who it is, and how many had cash in an account handled by MF Global. For 2 weeks now my cash totalling over $17K is not there for me, and I'm not seeing any promising developments in the news reports. I find it especially disgusting that for those like myself, who had no trades on at the time, or who were fortunate enough to see trouble brewing and liquidated, are being put at the back of line, while all those with positions have had their accounts transferred and funded at another broker. It's pretty clear to me that the missing $600 million is not going to be "found", and so now they are saying we will have to "share" the losses. And who knows how long before we get it, how much, or even if. XXXX Our heart goes out to our Partner and friend, as well as all clients and innocent employees of MF Global. We continue to pray for a swift resolution and fully support more stringent oversight within our industry to insure this tragedy is never repeated. The Closing Bell inside the zone... The open of the 11/11/11 session Thursday afternoon was very quiet. Over 300,000 contracts traded in and around a 1 point range - our Weekly Trading Zone 1237/1238. There are many terms used to describe this type of behavior from "the market is coiling" to simply "a quiet market". Whatever you call it, when the Asian markets opened the moves were dramatic and somewhat unusual. The initial move of 14 points (Zone to Zone) took only 20k contracts. The next move (Zone to Zone) reversed the market and erased the gains on the back of just 40k contracts. The third move highlighted above required 50k contracts to complete (Zone to Zone). You will rarely ever see this type of movement during RTH - regular trading hours. On Globex it is more common but still a bit unusual. Always exercise additional caution and risk management when trading the Globex session and no matter what time of day you trade - Always use a stop! As the European markets opened the rally was on. First a 10 point Zone to Zone move followed by a 12 point Zone to Zone move, and then things got quiet. Not eerily quiet, just Holiday quiet. The final 4-5 hours of today's market racked up a fair amount of volume 900k+ contracts but again all in and around a 1 point range - our Weekly Trading Zone 1261/1262. Podcast for Friday 11/11/11
  13. Greece and the EURO

    Dennis Gartman in his Wednesday letter said something that hit some buttons. "In reality, all that this shall do is give Greece time and a sense of hope: time to grow the economy and hope that the economy will in fact grow. The harsher reality from our perspective is that extending the term structure of Greece’s debt will only serve to keep the patient on drugs that he cannot be weaned away from a bit longer and nothing more. Greece cannot pay its current debts, and certainly it cannot pay those same debts + several hundred billion more EURs unless something truly magical… truly unexpected… truly something historically improbable or utterly impossible were to come to pass… manger scenes, the ’69 Mets, and the US hockey victory over the Soviets notwithstanding. We’ve absolutely no belief whatsoever that Greece can grow its economy. Corruption is too endemic; socialist thinking has become too pervasive; the work ethic has been lost entirely and the government seems intent upon moving farther and farther left-ward rather than facing the harsh realities of the current situation. So long as the Papandreou family remains involved in the Greek government, Greece shall remain moribund and socialist, and so long as it remains moribund and socialist any hopes to revive the economy there are doomed to failure." Corruption is too endemic: socialist thinking has become too pervasive; the work ethic has been lost entirely and the government seems intent upon moving farther and farther left-ward rather than facing the harsh realities of the current situation. The words should ring a bell for us here in the USA. We are heading down this same path and if we are not careful we will find ourselves broke in a country that our fore father conquered. USA is still the greatest place to live and we need to keep it that way. Greece is in trouble and needs to default on its debt. There I said! When we purchase a bond or a country’s debt we are not guaranteed anything. A country that can not pay its debts has to default and pay the consequences of their actions. There is always a consequence for our actions, sooner or later, we as a nation will have to pay the consequence of over consumptions and dependency on debt. Greece is not the only sick nation out there. We all have a debt problem. It is time we pay the reaper for our insanity. It will not be easy and many difficult years lie ahead, but it is a must. It is not fair for us to continue to kick the rock down the road and let our children pay for our sins. It will be ok and the quicker we turn and face the problems the quicker we get out of this mess and can return back to real prosperity, not this smoke and mirrors that we are currently living in. I apologize for the little rant now back to the markets. Wilbur Ross made a great analogy of the markets. Yesterday, when asked what the near future held for the US economy, Mr. Ross said that he was not looking for the economy to “make a ‘V’ or a ‘W’ or an ‘L’ or any other kind of alphabetical formation, ‘but instead suggested that it shall be a “Morris Code” economy where it makes dots and dashes instead, going nowhere over time, but doing so in surprising fashion as it moves from strength to weakness to strength and to weakness again. If that is the case will play the markets using “Morris Code” I would suggest everyone do the same. Meaning be caution and patient. We have to take one dash or dot at a time. There are far too many problems facing the economy right now. Here is a short list a just a few of them Europe’s debt problems are incurable, the USA government can’t seem to stop spending, the US job markets has not improved despite what Obama tells you. Government all over the world are spending more then they are bringing in. Money is being printed night and day thus decreasing your assets values. Oil will continue to climb, Unaffordable health care will never be solved, Housing market continue to decline, the stock market is inflated by government money, wars and revolutions are sweeping the Middle East, and Japan is dealing with the damage caused by the tsunami. Has it ever been this bad? In the past, one of these problems would have been enough to cause some concern, but to have them all taking place at once is just ludicrous. In many ways, a “perfect storm” is developing and we ought to be extremely concerned about what lies in our future. Lets be cautions! Cash is not a bad thing
  14. Euro Futures

    I thought I would start this out by posting up some results I've been getting trading Euro Currency Futures (EC). Everyone is trading EURUSD forex which is great. But so many overlook the fact that you can trade Euro/USD Futures contracts and get great results. I've got a UTA spreadsheet that I started backtesting the EC with. I began my backtest on Jan 25th with a 233 tick chart. I backtested a very tight and concise ruleset. Start time is 8:30 cst (exchange time) I tested a two position strategy. The 1st position gets out at a fixed target and the 2nd position uses a trailing stop. I'm using the HVMM 2010 trade strategy If a trade sets up, while my trailing position is still live, I will take the 'reentry' with the fixed position only. Quitting strategy was 2 fixed target winners and a positive result or, quit by 11 am cst. The strategy is to take what the market will give while quitting positive on most sessions. Trailing stop considered a bonus trade and didn't count towards quitting goals. The only caveat was that one of the trades had to have made more than just 1 tick to qualify for my stopping goal. I began posting my live trades in April. Here are the results after 351 trade entries. Remember, each position is entered as a separate trade, so if you put on two positions as described, you enter each one as a unique trade. So 351 trades is closer to 160 or so actual trades. Wins: 239; Losses: 112; 1 BE 68% win rate Profit Factor: 1.82 Expectation .26 Total Net Points: + 988 @ $12.5 per point Pre Cost Profit: $12,350 You can see by the diagram below that I started with some losses. In fact, January was relatively flat. But by sticking to it, the tradeplan finally took off and put together a great rally for about 2 months. Then a one step back occurred in April. Finally, you can see the two steps forward kicking in as the winners started to come in again. This is what should expect with a solid trade strategy that is winning about 2/3rds of its trades. One step back, two steps forward. Remember, wins and losses come at a random distribution. We can't control that. But, by backtesting and then posting our real trades into the UTA, we can determine a very real EDGE in the market. So long as we stick to the plan, the odds will work out in our favor and we'll get a natural action move to the upside with our equity curve, and then a reaction that flattens out or draws down some, and then a new action move to the upside again. This is the beginnings of your classic stairstepping equity curve, up and to the right. UTA and the vision it has given me, has instilled the confidence in me to show up tomorrow, and take my trades according to this plan.
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