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Showing results for tags 'lucid financial'.
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Dennis Gartman in his Wednesday letter said something that hit some buttons. "In reality, all that this shall do is give Greece time and a sense of hope: time to grow the economy and hope that the economy will in fact grow. The harsher reality from our perspective is that extending the term structure of Greece’s debt will only serve to keep the patient on drugs that he cannot be weaned away from a bit longer and nothing more. Greece cannot pay its current debts, and certainly it cannot pay those same debts + several hundred billion more EURs unless something truly magical… truly unexpected… truly something historically improbable or utterly impossible were to come to pass… manger scenes, the ’69 Mets, and the US hockey victory over the Soviets notwithstanding. We’ve absolutely no belief whatsoever that Greece can grow its economy. Corruption is too endemic; socialist thinking has become too pervasive; the work ethic has been lost entirely and the government seems intent upon moving farther and farther left-ward rather than facing the harsh realities of the current situation. So long as the Papandreou family remains involved in the Greek government, Greece shall remain moribund and socialist, and so long as it remains moribund and socialist any hopes to revive the economy there are doomed to failure." Corruption is too endemic: socialist thinking has become too pervasive; the work ethic has been lost entirely and the government seems intent upon moving farther and farther left-ward rather than facing the harsh realities of the current situation. The words should ring a bell for us here in the USA. We are heading down this same path and if we are not careful we will find ourselves broke in a country that our fore father conquered. USA is still the greatest place to live and we need to keep it that way. Greece is in trouble and needs to default on its debt. There I said! When we purchase a bond or a country’s debt we are not guaranteed anything. A country that can not pay its debts has to default and pay the consequences of their actions. There is always a consequence for our actions, sooner or later, we as a nation will have to pay the consequence of over consumptions and dependency on debt. Greece is not the only sick nation out there. We all have a debt problem. It is time we pay the reaper for our insanity. It will not be easy and many difficult years lie ahead, but it is a must. It is not fair for us to continue to kick the rock down the road and let our children pay for our sins. It will be ok and the quicker we turn and face the problems the quicker we get out of this mess and can return back to real prosperity, not this smoke and mirrors that we are currently living in. I apologize for the little rant now back to the markets. Wilbur Ross made a great analogy of the markets. Yesterday, when asked what the near future held for the US economy, Mr. Ross said that he was not looking for the economy to “make a ‘V’ or a ‘W’ or an ‘L’ or any other kind of alphabetical formation, ‘but instead suggested that it shall be a “Morris Code” economy where it makes dots and dashes instead, going nowhere over time, but doing so in surprising fashion as it moves from strength to weakness to strength and to weakness again. If that is the case will play the markets using “Morris Code” I would suggest everyone do the same. Meaning be caution and patient. We have to take one dash or dot at a time. There are far too many problems facing the economy right now. Here is a short list a just a few of them Europe’s debt problems are incurable, the USA government can’t seem to stop spending, the US job markets has not improved despite what Obama tells you. Government all over the world are spending more then they are bringing in. Money is being printed night and day thus decreasing your assets values. Oil will continue to climb, Unaffordable health care will never be solved, Housing market continue to decline, the stock market is inflated by government money, wars and revolutions are sweeping the Middle East, and Japan is dealing with the damage caused by the tsunami. Has it ever been this bad? In the past, one of these problems would have been enough to cause some concern, but to have them all taking place at once is just ludicrous. In many ways, a “perfect storm” is developing and we ought to be extremely concerned about what lies in our future. Lets be cautions! Cash is not a bad thing
As humans we do not come equipped with the ability to deal with the variety and often times confusing aspects of randomness. We are taught from a very young age to strive for perfection, for high scores in school and in sports. This could be our biggest flaw and is the handicap for a lot of traders. There is no perfection in trading and never will be. It is a profession of chance and liability. Traders must learn to put probability in their favor and realize the markets are extremely random. Most traders forecast future price using some combination of fundamentals, indicators, patterns and experience in the expectation that recent history will forecast the probable future often enough to make a profit. This is fine for those 5% of traders that actually make money, but most forget that Randomness controls the forex market and cannot be predicted. THE CORRELATION TRADE Fight Randomness with Randomness by using the Correlation Trade! Statistically speaking, correlation is the measured relationship between two units over a period of time. Correlation is measured on a range of -1 (perfect negative correlation) to 1 (perfect positive correlation). A positive correlation implies that the two units move in similar directions, the higher the correlation the closer and more accurately these moves are. Conversely, a negative correlation represents opposite movements with a smaller (more negative) number representing a stronger relationship between the opposite movements. So far our correlation strategies have brought our forex managed account great returns and I am so surprised that more people do not discuss and use this method of trading JACE