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I thought I would start this out by posting up some results I've been getting trading Euro Currency Futures (EC). Everyone is trading EURUSD forex which is great. But so many overlook the fact that you can trade Euro/USD Futures contracts and get great results. I've got a UTA spreadsheet that I started backtesting the EC with. I began my backtest on Jan 25th with a 233 tick chart. I backtested a very tight and concise ruleset. Start time is 8:30 cst (exchange time) I tested a two position strategy. The 1st position gets out at a fixed target and the 2nd position uses a trailing stop. I'm using the HVMM 2010 trade strategy If a trade sets up, while my trailing position is still live, I will take the 'reentry' with the fixed position only. Quitting strategy was 2 fixed target winners and a positive result or, quit by 11 am cst. The strategy is to take what the market will give while quitting positive on most sessions. Trailing stop considered a bonus trade and didn't count towards quitting goals. The only caveat was that one of the trades had to have made more than just 1 tick to qualify for my stopping goal. I began posting my live trades in April. Here are the results after 351 trade entries. Remember, each position is entered as a separate trade, so if you put on two positions as described, you enter each one as a unique trade. So 351 trades is closer to 160 or so actual trades. Wins: 239; Losses: 112; 1 BE 68% win rate Profit Factor: 1.82 Expectation .26 Total Net Points: + 988 @ $12.5 per point Pre Cost Profit: $12,350 You can see by the diagram below that I started with some losses. In fact, January was relatively flat. But by sticking to it, the tradeplan finally took off and put together a great rally for about 2 months. Then a one step back occurred in April. Finally, you can see the two steps forward kicking in as the winners started to come in again. This is what should expect with a solid trade strategy that is winning about 2/3rds of its trades. One step back, two steps forward. Remember, wins and losses come at a random distribution. We can't control that. But, by backtesting and then posting our real trades into the UTA, we can determine a very real EDGE in the market. So long as we stick to the plan, the odds will work out in our favor and we'll get a natural action move to the upside with our equity curve, and then a reaction that flattens out or draws down some, and then a new action move to the upside again. This is the beginnings of your classic stairstepping equity curve, up and to the right. UTA and the vision it has given me, has instilled the confidence in me to show up tomorrow, and take my trades according to this plan.
Hi, this is TJ and Barry – developers of the Ultimate Trade Analyzer (UTA). We have started this forum as a place for the UTA community to learn new things and to exchange ideas and discoveries made from using this powerful new trading tool. Soon there will be several helpful threads about how to use the UTA, and to share results. This is your forum, so please feel free to start your own thread if necessary. Let’s all work to keep this forum organized and useful. But first - what is the UTA? UTA is a power-tool for analyzing your trades. Whether you are back-testing, forward testing, or logging real trades, your trade data contains a wealth of information. But how do you unlock the secrets of your data and make it useful? Imagine if you have a gold mine – what good would it be if you could not get to the gold? Your trade data is that gold mine. And UTA is the tool to mine the gold and unlock the secrets hidden inside your trade data. Never before has there been a tool that presents so much useful information in one easy to use format. What you discover will improve your trade decisions. We understand that questions are popping up in your mind – as they should be. But consider this the first step of a long and fruitful journey. UTA is so new that we are only just beginning to tap into its potential wealth. Together, as a community, we can all drill down deep into our trade data that is our gold mine. Let the journey begin . . . TJ & Barry