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dandxg

Order Flow Analytics

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Excellent thread...good job by all who have contributed, let's try and keep it going. Personally I believe 100% that order flow/auction theory is the only information one needs to trade profitably. That being said, there are many different ways and tools to use in order to interpret order flow. I agree with Fulcrum and electroniclocal in that to much information can be detrimental. Also, the last thing I want to do is get used to trading with someone's proprietary software and then find out one day, for whatever reason, that I can't use that software to trade with anymore. That would not be good for the psyche.

That being said, I am always interested in learning more about order flow and how other people use it to trade successfully. I actually talked to OFA a while back because their software does look interesting. From watching their intro videos it seems to me that something very important to them is not only the actual delta from the current auction but also the location of poc/hi volume node. Seems like when volume starts to build rapidly and the poc comes close to the hi/lo of the current bar then they look for climactic type of activity to start a new auction bar in the opposite direction and trap e1 who just sold the low or bought the high but I see that on a .50 range volume candle chart. Plus, I would expect these climactic events to be occurring at levels that I am already watching myself. To be frank I think it's just taking the exact same information I look at now and just presenting it in a more organized way. But if it can continuously get me filled a tick or 2 better and help automate things a little bit.... Any comments? Anyone here actually using the software live? I have not seen the software operate in real time yet.

 

Besides trading the ES I also use orderflow/auction theory to trade currencies without actual trade volume, only tick volume. All the same basic principles still apply.

Way too tired to type anymore....look forward to exchanging ideas.

 

I don't understand how someones software will help you get 1-2 tick better entry. You need to decide where you want to do business and each entry must be taken into the context of everything else that is going on i.e. risk, reward, and probability of success.

 

What I will say is that if you look at volume at a micro level, if volume is significant, you can at times consider this a wall to lean on but you have to be disciplined about this in the sense that if that wall is breached you must accept failure.

 

One thing to watch for is that when volume is light on a contract it can throw you off since you are used to seeing large prints when the market is active.

 

Good example of a top. The number of contracts traded at these higher prices is pretty significant so if you are shorting below these levels, you can try to play the card that this volume will act as a wall to support your trade, since one time frame has responded here and will likely respond again at these prices given the opportunity. Additionally the decrease in cumulative delta is indicative that sellers are becoming more aggressive or buyers are trying to exit. What else is worth watching here is that any bulls purchasing between 10:06 and 10:32 might be thinking that they got a good fill shown by the limited amount of trade at the 1108.75 level, well the market will not give you a good price, if you get one either you are a very good trader, are lucky or you just got caught into a trap. Looking at the volume at 10:54 notice that 1108.75 has the most volume here, to me this looks like bulls realizing they are wrong and running for the exit.

 

As you can see there is a TON of information here, almost too much which is why it's only worth looking at when trying to catch a reversal or attempting to find out what is happening within a trading range.

 

6TRM107A1.png

 

Here is a good example IMO, of using cumulative delta.

 

If you look at 12:24 market is -62k, look at 13:48 market is almost -62k and prices are higher, opportunities like these false breakouts can work very well. But from what I have seen, delta is nowhere near as reliable to accurate volume.

 

6TRM107A1_2.png

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Great points Dave...ty for your insight!

 

Let me start by saying that I (or any trader) do not need delta in order to make trading decisions based on order flow or auction theory (which to me encompass one another). Volume tells all...volume tells me where I want to do business. I determine my entries based on levels that are determined by volume clusters on timeframes ranging from .50 range all the way up to monthly tpo charts. You don't need software to tell you whether there were more buyers or sellers in a given area, you just need to be able to interpret the market action after the volume occurs and how it acts when it re-visits the area.

 

The OFA software seems to be simply a scalper type software, trading off all the micro rotations within the bigger macro auctions. The thing that interested me about the software is that sometimes I do scalp off these micro intraday levels and only in that situation do I see a possiblity of the software aiding me in improving entry points because of the quick nature of the market action on these micro levels. If I scalp a few times a day with a few contracts, then those 1 or 2 ticks will quickly add up. I would only use the software at levels that I already see by looking at vertical volume on a barchart and horizontal volume on a profile chart. So say the market is rallying, hits a micro level that I am looking at and at the same time buyers climax and sellers take control...thats all fine and dandy I can see that on my own...but the software can enter trades automatically at these levels only if these ideal conditions exist. As far as trading the bigger macro levels I see no advantage because you have more time to put your trades on.

 

Bottom line is whether or not it can improve my bottom line without hurting my current methods.

 

Those delta charts you posted are great...my understanding of orderflow grew by leaps and bounds by using market delta and watching those types of charts live day in and day out for several months but...bottom line is it was to much information for me to decipher on a realtime basis on the micro level. But I wouldn't be where I am today on the orderflow learning curve without studying those footprint charts the way that I did.

 

How do I post a chart on here? I can show you what I look at on a micro level and you'll see it's the same condition that the OFA software looks for.

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Great points Dave...ty for your insight!

 

Let me start by saying that I (or any trader) do not need delta in order to make trading decisions based on order flow or auction theory (which to me encompass one another). Volume tells all...volume tells me where I want to do business. I determine my entries based on levels that are determined by volume clusters on timeframes ranging from .50 range all the way up to monthly tpo charts. You don't need software to tell you whether there were more buyers or sellers in a given area, you just need to be able to interpret the market action after the volume occurs and how it acts when it re-visits the area.

 

The OFA software seems to be simply a scalper type software, trading off all the micro rotations within the bigger macro auctions. The thing that interested me about the software is that sometimes I do scalp off these micro intraday levels and only in that situation do I see a possiblity of the software aiding me in improving entry points because of the quick nature of the market action on these micro levels. If I scalp a few times a day with a few contracts, then those 1 or 2 ticks will quickly add up. I would only use the software at levels that I already see by looking at vertical volume on a barchart and horizontal volume on a profile chart. So say the market is rallying, hits a micro level that I am looking at and at the same time buyers climax and sellers take control...thats all fine and dandy I can see that on my own...but the software can enter trades automatically at these levels only if these ideal conditions exist. As far as trading the bigger macro levels I see no advantage because you have more time to put your trades on.

 

Bottom line is whether or not it can improve my bottom line without hurting my current methods.

 

Those delta charts you posted are great...my understanding of orderflow grew by leaps and bounds by using market delta and watching those types of charts live day in and day out for several months but...bottom line is it was to much information for me to decipher on a realtime basis on the micro level. But I wouldn't be where I am today on the orderflow learning curve without studying those footprint charts the way that I did.

 

How do I post a chart on here? I can show you what I look at on a micro level and you'll see it's the same condition that the OFA software looks for.

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Watched the webinar, the chart they use is the same as the one I posted nothing more then a 6 tick reversal chart/pnf chart. Instead of calling the the net bid ask trades delta, her refers to them as COT. What is not shown in this video is that supply or demand will often be tested multiple times which is why it is important to plan your areas and not trade using this type of chart blindly.

 

Matt Fahmie has posted some great setups here for those who are interested.

 

Order Flow: 6 Tick Reversal Patterns

 

Edit.

 

The only difference I see here from a Market Delta PNF chart and OFA's software is that they offer the ability to hook cumulative delta since trade execution.

Edited by davewolfs

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Edit.

 

The only difference I see here from a Market Delta PNF chart and OFA's software is that they offer the ability to hook cumulative delta since trade execution.

 

As a note.....you can also do this with a Cumulative Delta candlestick chart by drawing a small horizontal line on the CD candlestick at the point you enter a trade (I do this frequently at the point I enter a trade). If once in the trade you see the Cumulative Delta candlestick start to plot counter to your horizontal reference line (your entry point in the order flow), you can then decide to bail and look for a better entry if you would like.

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@Fulcrum... can or have you plotted Delta on the SPY contract ?

 

@ everyone:

 

I am fairly new to stocks/futures but after listening to the audio book of Livermore I gets to thinking, could the ES or the SPY be the bucket shop, and when a satisfactory line has been gathered in either/both markets then it's off to the stock market to move price to benefit the bucket trades, or even vise-versa.

 

I tried to calculate if an equal amount of dollars could be made in a multi-day swing in ES, SPY and the price change of the average price of the 500 stocks but I do not know enough to get three comparable answers.

 

Looks like the OFA software has changed in the last 6-9 months:

OFA Intro Video

 

and another site promoting order flow, I like the idea of their Order Cancellation Indicators:

Welcome to www.tradingphysics.com

 

.

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BTW, Rithmic built and owns the "Zenfire" feed........"Zenfire" is just a brand name of the feed.

 

!

 

Yeah I was aware of that though a programmer mate told me (un verified so take with a large pinch of salt) that their where some limitations in the feed if writing to Ninja/Zenfire API as opposed to using R|API. (despite being broadly the same)

 

My big issue is the running "real time ticker plant" to maintain the data these indicators require. How much synchronised bid/ask data does DTN.IQ provide?

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Thanks deanz. I am familiar with Gom's excelent work. I guess I need to speak to DTN.IQ to find out what sort of bid ask history they can offer. Thinking about it I would probably require a week rather than a day. I often will have 2 or 3 days off completely impromptu. (Actually just had 5 where I have barely touched the computer) Even so it looks like a rather tedious data management task though possibly scriptable.

 

Does NT 7.0 store historical bid ask data in it's own data base? I really am not that keen on maintaining a separate GOM data base, sure it works well but it is not really robust and scalable.

 

I think if I was going to pursue this seriously (again) I would probably go with neoticker (again) :).

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Thanks deanz. I am familiar with Gom's excelent work. I guess I need to speak to DTN.IQ to find out what sort of bid ask history they can offer. Thinking about it I would probably require a week rather than a day. I often will have 2 or 3 days off completely impromptu. (Actually just had 5 where I have barely touched the computer) Even so it looks like a rather tedious data management task though possibly scriptable.

 

Does NT 7.0 store historical bid ask data in it's own data base? I really am not that keen on maintaining a separate GOM data base, sure it works well but it is not really robust and scalable.

 

I think if I was going to pursue this seriously (again) I would probably go with neoticker (again) :).

 

I can pull 4 weeks of proper bid/ask data from the basic DTN.IQ feed package to feed into my Investor RT Pro set up at anytime for futures instruments......not bad at all and DTN.IQ has been rock solid for a long time.

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Actually there is one other option that is to use uptick/downtick as a proxy for order flow. Whether it is a better or worse proxy than delta and if so by how much is debatable.

 

Yes, superimposed on / in conjunction with / comparing measures of C<or>CurrentBid(and CurrentAsk), there are certain ‘market conditions’ where up and ticks are more than sufficient proxy.

 

Also, restarting the ‘net’ at individual price swing pivots instead of summing it continuously from an ‘open’ or restarting at each individual bar can be quite helpful in certain ‘market conditions’…

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Can you detail a little more?

i)what "market condition" are you speaking of?

ii)Price pivot are min/max of a swing?(So you are postulating a change in behaviour

of CurrentBid/CurrentAsk tick assumption from up/down swing ?)

 

Yes, superimposed on / in conjunction with / comparing measures of C<or>CurrentBid(and CurrentAsk), there are certain ‘market conditions’ where up and ticks are more than sufficient proxy.

 

Also, restarting the ‘net’ at individual price swing pivots instead of summing it continuously from an ‘open’ or restarting at each individual bar can be quite helpful in certain ‘market conditions’…

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Can you detail a little more?

i)what "market condition" are you speaking of?

ii)Price pivot are min/max of a swing?(So you are postulating a change in behaviour

of CurrentBid/CurrentAsk tick assumption from up/down swing ?)

 

re “Market conditions”

The simplest way I can put it is the order flow patterns need different interpretations btwn, say, unfolding flat areas and steep areas on a chart – even though the raw patterns printed by the measures may be verisimilar in shape and scale. ie Virtually identical patterns point to going with the move in some cases and in other cases fading the move.

Also, only in certain conditions do I even refer to these measures and the rest of the time they are ignored.

 

re “min/max of a swing” Yes basically. Anytime the auction changes from bid to ask (and v v) (or to some cases of neutral / balanced), I zero the count and start new one at the bar where the previous prevalence shifted.

 

re: “postulating a change in behaviour of CurrentBid/CurrentAsk” Not me. (but also not saying the information couldn’t be used that way) ‘Trades’ not on the CurrentBid or Ask are ‘proxies’ for market order type participations.

 

Briefly -

‘Sustainable’ price moves seem to have both extent and an obviously close balance / ratio of ‘mkt’ order participation with (/ just under) ‘limit’ order participation.

‘Crap’ moves seem to skew a preponderance of one or the other, including but not limited to one summing to positive and the other to negative.

Many terminations show swing level negative divergence between price extents and indicator extents ( but I haven’t run stats on that phenom and rarely use that information…)

hth

zdo

 

 

… if it looks like I’m pulling an Urma - it's bcse I AM pulling an Urma :cool: - just not for the same reasons.

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i)Anytime the auction changes from bid to ask (and v v) (or to some cases of neutral / balanced),

 

What is your limit to assume a change in the buyers/sellers waves?

(i.e. I' m using a similar setup on a 2k volume chart , and my signal is the 2second

bar of reversal after steep bid/ask waves)

 

 

ii)‘Trades’ not on the CurrentBid or Ask are ‘proxies’ for market order type participations.

 

Interesting.Do you think that there' s a way to track market_order/limit_order from ZenFire feed?Any existing Ninja DOM indicator customized?

 

iii)‘Sustainable’ price moves seem to have both extent and an obviously close balance / ratio of ‘mkt’ order participation with (/ just under) ‘limit’ order participation.

‘Crap’ moves seem to skew a preponderance of one or the other, including but not limited to one summing to positive and the other to negative.

Many terminations show swing level negative divergence between price extents and indicator extents ( but I haven’t run stats on that phenom and rarely use that information…)

 

Mkt_order/limit_order dynamics.

tape order not changing DOM volumes?

 

 

Thanks zdo

 

 

 

re “Market conditions”

The simplest way I can put it is the order flow patterns need different interpretations btwn, say, unfolding flat areas and steep areas on a chart – even though the raw patterns printed by the measures may be verisimilar in shape and scale. ie Virtually identical patterns point to going with the move in some cases and in other cases fading the move.

Also, only in certain conditions do I even refer to these measures and the rest of the time they are ignored.

 

re “min/max of a swing” Yes basically. Anytime the auction changes from bid to ask (and v v) (or to some cases of neutral / balanced), I zero the count and start new one at the bar where the previous prevalence shifted.

 

re: “postulating a change in behaviour of CurrentBid/CurrentAsk” Not me. (but also not saying the information couldn’t be used that way) ‘Trades’ not on the CurrentBid or Ask are ‘proxies’ for market order type participations.

 

Briefly -

‘Sustainable’ price moves seem to have both extent and an obviously close balance / ratio of ‘mkt’ order participation with (/ just under) ‘limit’ order participation.

‘Crap’ moves seem to skew a preponderance of one or the other, including but not limited to one summing to positive and the other to negative.

Many terminations show swing level negative divergence between price extents and indicator extents ( but I haven’t run stats on that phenom and rarely use that information…)

hth

zdo

 

 

… if it looks like I’m pulling an Urma - it's bcse I AM pulling an Urma :cool: - just not for the same reasons.

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re: "What is your limit to assume a change in the buyers/sellers waves?

(i.e. I' m using a similar setup on a 2k volume chart , and my signal is the 2second

bar of reversal after steep bid/ask waves)"

 

That’s pretty granular.

For this, I use charts that print about 5 bars per minute at peak times and just use

1st ‘color’ change on a fairly fast modified HA for the steep pivots.

Resets gets slightly more complicated for congestions…

 

re: "Do you think that there' s a way to track market_order/limit_order from ZenFire feed?Any existing Ninja DOM indicator customized?" Don’t know. Don’t use Ninja DOM. There's been quite a bit of talk herein about common feeds... my comment - I don't trust any of them at this level

 

 

re: "Mkt_order/limit_order dynamics.

tape order not changing DOM volumes?

 

I don’t think I understand your question.

a stab at it...

Generally, I haven't attended to the 'Mkt_order/limit_order dynamics' very deeply - usefulness of the patterns are extremely context dependent.

re Dom I personally have DOM numbers showing but only glance at it occasionally to see if things are extremely thick or thin.... currently have no other uses for that information...

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blowfish probably best to check those 2 links again me thinks.....lol

 

Whilst it says get the intraday data with QCollector on a daily basis it is not clear whether that is a limitation of IQ.Feed, QCollector or Gom File converter. My hunch of course is that it is the former which is a shame :)

 

Anyway thanks again.

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Actually there is one other option that is to use uptick/downtick as a proxy for order flow. Whether it is a better or worse proxy than delta and if so by how much is debatable.

 

BlowFish - I myself never use the uptick/downtick data and I only use actual bid/ask Cumulative Delta in all my trading. After tracking and using Cumulative Delta now for over 6 years, I have not found any subsitute for the actual Cumulative Delta data for my trading.

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Heads up to all who may order and use the OFA software for trading set ups with Ninjatrader (the only trade platform option at this time with OFA software). I have now verified several factors that WILL cause improper BID/ASK calculations at times intraday using ZENFIRE or TT FIX ADAPTER feeds. The OFA software on Ninjatrader using these feeds may show at times throughout the day improper computational realities of the order flow (that would not be good). You do not want to get set up for a trade entry off a false reality in the order flow indications at a critical time in the market.

 

Our Partners

 

One fix for this now verified problem with NT using ZF or TT feeds (for clean bid/ask dependent work) is to maybe check out the barcharts.com feed potential. I have never used barcharts.com but it may be a possible feed available at this time to have proper bid/ask computations throughout the trade day. Another option would be to use DTN.IQ feed on NT charts where you run any OFA software. I myself use DTN.IQ feed with Investor RT Pro for my primary Cumulative Delta bid/ask work each day. I continuously verify DTN.IQ feed against CME daily data runs and have no problems at all with this feed for proper bid/ask work (which you must have to use OFA software).

 

Trading Platforms. NINJATRADER. Brokerage and Data Feed Support.

 

I am not sure if the crew at OFA know about the Zenfire and TT Fix Adapter feed problems with NT6.5 or NT7 for any use of bid/ask computations. Hopefully they are already starting to address this problem and moving clients they have over to a proper feed set up that will not taint their software plotted order flow data. Ninjatrader unfortunately is not of the capability to handle all the data from these realtime un-verified broker type feeds with the recent CME data flow increase (more granularity of the feed flow.....much more data per unit of time).

 

BTW, here is a recent thread discussing these recent data flow issues..........

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/zenfire-dtn-feed-different-7301.html

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I have had several Esignal users show me Cumulative Delta plots that were not matching my verified DTN.IQ feed Cumulative Delta plots in past months (I have no idea why?). I do not use Esignal, so I have not done any work to see if their data runs match a DTN.IQ feed these days with the new CME data outflow increase.

 

Also of note, I pay $125 a month for CME, NYSE, and the Nasdaq portion of my DTN.IQ data each month.

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Yes. I wholly concur. George has a good thing going. My greatest concern is that their data, while coming directly from Rythmic/ZenFire and is therefore fast, may still lack the accuracy necessary to those needing a "clean", accumulative market delta tick data. The Pivot Lines drawn on the OFA charts, IMO, are cumulative market delta lines after the close of the U.S. session.

 

I also suspect that one may be able to recreate the OFA trade ladder by using a 6 tick PnF chart with a delta reversal periodicity to close the "auction" ladder and start a new one.

 

The idea is presented here: Delta Reversal Periodicity[/media]

 

COTtrader

 

QUOTE=FulcrumTrader;83081]Brian,

 

Back a few years ago, I did study a Volume Analysis tool Bill Duryea was using similar to what OrderFlowAnalytics has currently just developed......

 

http://www.tradingeducationexchange.com/products/images/ioamt/intraday.png

 

In my opinion, the new OFA charting tool for Ninjatrader makes a lot of sense to me. Anytime a trader is developing their understanding of order flow/volume distributions and moving away from traditional price derived indicators, they are on a very robust path.

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This is a great discussion. I have been trading for over 6 years part-time. I never had any REAL positive results until starting to trade with order flow, after being introduced by a friend to the basic yet effective Time & Sales information. However I really only ever made me any real decent consistent Money after learning and following some of Kam Dhadwar's (L2ST L2ST - Trading Futures Online- Learn to trade futures online) MarketDelta Footprint execution setup's over the last year or so. I am still trying to perfect the techniques and Order Flow based setup's that they teach at L2ST, however they are honest enough to say that each setup takes take time to master. Which I respect, as I have experienced that my timing improves each and every day.

 

However the very interesting thing to me is that ONE of the exact same set-ups that I have learned from L2ST's Kam about 10 months ago, is what Order Flow Analytics is selling as a product. I personally do not feel that you need OFA, you can just use Market Delta, He explained this set-up on the footprints using the VPS (Volume Price Statistics) Indicator for tracking when the high volume buying gets trapped at the high and high volume selling at the lows, then look for them to Bail with their poor trade location out of fear, and profiting from these traders stops getting triggered. I learnt that he uses the FootPrint Price Statistics Indicator using pullback data only in MD to track what OFA call Commitment Of Traders (COT). The Risk\trade management was also explained, by using the overall Delta of the bar itself. HOWEVER the great thing is with MarketDelta you can apply this concept to any market and any time frame! i have seen it and traded the same setup on many markets, including Mini-Dow, Nasdaq and even Crude Oil and other commodities. You see it everywhere. But this was just one of the Footprint\Order Flow setup's that I learned, there are many more that L2ST still teach, some of which use a combination of the Order Book (DOM) and the resting orders, The MarketDelta Resting Bid\Ask Tool, Time & Sales alongside the MD Footprints. However you only really need 1 or 2 to be consistently profitable. So what i am trying to say is that IMO MarketDelta can do exactly what OFA can do but with more FLEXIBILITY :-) which is always good.

 

Like BGTrader said in earlier posts its worthwhile checking out kam's videos at L2ST - Trading Futures Online - Contact Us, as he quite nicely explains how to use market profile and auction theory concepts for price based set-ups and levels to trade, however using Order Flow for execution, timing and trade management.

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This is a great discussion. I have been trading for over 6 years part-time. I never had any REAL positive results until starting to trade with order flow, after being introduced by a friend to the basic yet effective Time & Sales information. However I really only ever made me any real decent consistent Money after learning and following some of Kam Dhadwar's (L2ST L2ST - Trading Futures Online- Learn to trade futures online) MarketDelta Footprint execution setup's over the last year or so. I am still trying to perfect the techniques and Order Flow based setup's that they teach at L2ST, however they are honest enough to say that each setup takes take time to master. Which I respect, as I have experienced that my timing improves each and every day.

 

However the very interesting thing to me is that ONE of the exact same set-ups that I have learned from L2ST's Kam about 10 months ago, is what Order Flow Analytics is selling as a product. I personally do not feel that you need OFA, you can just use Market Delta, He explained this set-up on the footprints using the VPS (Volume Price Statistics) Indicator for tracking when the high volume buying gets trapped at the high and high volume selling at the lows, then look for them to Bail with their poor trade location out of fear, and profiting from these traders stops getting triggered. I learnt that he uses the FootPrint Price Statistics Indicator using pullback data only in MD to track what OFA call Commitment Of Traders (COT). The Risk\trade management was also explained, by using the overall Delta of the bar itself. HOWEVER the great thing is with MarketDelta you can apply this concept to any market and any time frame! i have seen it and traded the same setup on many markets, including Mini-Dow, Nasdaq and even Crude Oil and other commodities. You see it everywhere. But this was just one of the Footprint\Order Flow setup's that I learned, there are many more that L2ST still teach, some of which use a combination of the Order Book (DOM) and the resting orders, The MarketDelta Resting Bid\Ask Tool, Time & Sales alongside the MD Footprints. However you only really need 1 or 2 to be consistently profitable. So what i am trying to say is that IMO MarketDelta can do exactly what OFA can do but with more FLEXIBILITY :-) which is always good.

 

Like BGTrader said in earlier posts its worthwhile checking out kam's videos at L2ST - Trading Futures Online - Contact Us, as he quite nicely explains how to use market profile and auction theory concepts for price based set-ups and levels to trade, however using Order Flow for execution, timing and trade management.

 

Given the spirit of this thread, perhaps we should start to indulge in some of the setups that we all know that work. It's pretty clear that Order Flow Analytics is nothing but an attempt to profit off what MD already does.

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    • Another Best Broker award for HotForex! Dear Client, We are thrilled to announce that International Finance Awards has named HotForex the Best Forex & Commodities Broker in Latin America! A HotForex spokesman said: “This new award is an excellent addition to our 25+ existing awards and demonstrates our continued success in establishing ourselves as a market leader with global reach, committed to providing our clients with the best possible client-centric trading experience.” Thank you for all your support, and for choosing us as your broker of choice! Kind regards, The HotForex Team
    • #WeekAhead  #forex  #news  #followme  #socialtrading Hey friends! Happy new week. Here are the data highlights for this week: (GMT+8) Monday: 10:00      Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales     Tuesday: 09:30   RBA Meeting Minutes 17:00     German ZEW economic sentiment and 21:15     US industrial production   Wednesday 16:30     UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 20:30     Canada BoC CPI   Thursday: 02:00   US FOMC Economic Projections 02:00   US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement REPORT 02:00   US Fed Interest Rate Decision 02:30   US FOMC Press Conference SPEECH 06:45   AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2) 09:30   AUD Employment Change s.a. (Aug) 09:30   AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug) 10:00   JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 10:00   JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement REPORT 14:00   JPY BoJ Press Conference SPEECH 19:00   UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility 19:00   UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 19:00   UK BoE MPC Vote Hike 19:00   UK Bank of England Minutes REPORT 19:00   UK BoE MPC Vote Cut 19:00   UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged   Friday: 20:30   Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)   #FederalReserve is expected to cut rate about 25-basis point. It would be a major shock if the Fed doesn’t deliver. But some, including Donald Trump, want more than just 25 basis points. In fact, the US President has called for “boneheads” Fed to cut rates to zero or lower in a tweet this week. Understandably, with US data not deteriorating as badly as, say, Germany, the Fed is reluctant to cut aggressively and rightly so. The risk therefore is that the Fed refuses to provide a dovish outlook for interest rates. In this potential scenario, a rate cut might only weigh on the dollar momentarily. With most other major central banks already being or turning dovish, the Fed will also need to be super dovish for the dollar to end its bullish trend. Otherwise, the greenback may find renewed bullish momentum, even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points.     The #Swiss National Bank will have to say about the #ECB’s decision to resume bond buying, given the recent appreciation of the franc against the shared currency. The #BoJ is unlikely to respond to the #ECB’s resumption of bond buying. It may keep the current policy of controlling the yield curve. For one, the global economy hasn’t deteriorated too significantly to exacerbate deflationary pressures in the export-oriented Japanese economy. For another, the there’s only limited number of policy options left at the BoJ's disposal. Thus, cutting short-term interest rates further into the negative may be an option, but to be used on another occasion.
    • Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Brazilian Real COT Change (52W) / C - 54%, LS – 54% / FTG Score / D -24,1, W -36,7, M -25,9 / All major cot signals are indicating that we have a good chance to see the market to rally. Wheat (Minn.) COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / FTG Score / D -25.7, W -31.3, M -29.7/ All time cot extremes are always highly valued, but we should be careful, since history has proven that we can be in such a place for a long time before we see the major trend change… Nevertheless we should be prepared to see Wheat go higher. Sugar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / FTG Score / D -28.6, W 26.4, M -45.2 / Well I could simply copy+paste what I just wrote for Wheat but actually there are some differences here… If you look carefully, you may find Sugar to be in a bullish extreme since mid 2017, and we have still not been able to leave the bear market…. So even with this all time cot extreme, one should be willing to accept the high chance that Sugar will stay low even with such extremes! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts FOREX Trading Futures Trading
    • Date : 16th September 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th September 2019.Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as four of the major Central banks will announce their rate decision, i.e. Fed, BoJ, SNB and BoE. There is a lot of interest in seeing whether BoJ will follow the Fed’s steps next week in cutting rates. Monday – 16 September 2019   Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese Industrial Production growth is expected to have risen, at 5.2% y/y in August from 4.8% y/y last month. A slightly positive reading is also expected in the Retail Sales figure at 7.9% from 7.6%. Tuesday – 17 September 2019   Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for September is projected at -38.0, from the lowest level since 2011 at -44.1 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The ZEW is a pretty clear indication that investors are gearing up for a much higher risk of a global recession, which ties in with developments in global bond yields and the marked flattening of curves. Wednesday – 18 September 2019   Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI inflation is anticipated to be more underwhelming than the July data, at 1.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y, with a monthly rise up to 0.5% m/m. Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final reading of inflation is expected to have held steady at 1.0% y/y and core at 0.9% y/y, with an increase in the monthly number at 0.2%m/m from -0.5%m/m. Lower energy price inflation keep a lid on the overall number meanwhile as CPI excluding energy moved up to 1.2% from 1.1% y/y last month. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The August CPI is expected to continue adding to the backing for steady BoC policy this year, even as the Fed and ECB add stimulus. CPI has been forecasted to grow to a 1.7% y/y pace in August, below the 2.0% last month. Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00-18:30) – The August’s jobs data did little to alter the market’s expectations for a 25bp rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. Based on Powell’s latest comments, the Fed is very committed to a symmetric 2% inflation goal, hence given low inflation, interest rates will remain low. That leaves very little room to cut rates further. The Fed is not forecasting or expecting a US recession, nor a global downturn, said Powell. The fact that the chair doesn’t seem too concerned about a recession in the States, or the world, suggests the FOMC is not going to be aggressive easing policy. Thursday – 19 September 2019   Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (JPY, GMT 02:00) – The BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying program. The central bank is expected to signal once again its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. The BoJ pledged to keep an eye on the output gap, but for now at least it seems the bank is seeing the risks as coming mainly from the outside. Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB kept policy on hold at the June council meeting. The Libor target was replaced with a key policy rate, but the central bank was adamant that the degree of monetary accommodation remains unchanged. After the ECB cut rates, while the Fed is now widely expected to ease rates, the SNB has little room to manoeuvre, especially against the backdrop of ongoing Brexit uncertainty and geopolitical trade risks. The SNB’s central message remains that the situation remains fragile and the currency “highly valued”. Interest Rate Decision, MPC Voting (GBP, GMT 11:00) – Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions. Friday – 20 September 2019   Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales and Core for August are seen steady, while the headline is anticipated to drop to 2.9% y/y from 3.3% and core to 2.5% from 2.9%. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • China’s New Cryptocurrency   China plans to release a new digital currency which would bear some similarities to Facebook’s Libra coin. It would be usable across several platforms like WeChat and Alipay.   In a recent interview with the Shanghai Security News on the 6th of September, the deputy director of the People’s Bank of China, Mu Changchun, stated the purposes and the need for the new digital currency. He stated that the central bank needed to evolve from the use of traditional paper currency and delve into electronic payment methods which are making strong advances around the world. He said that the digital currency would be a realistic way to protect monetary sovereignty and legal currency status, stating that this digital currency initiative was a way of planning for a rainy day.   He also mentioned that digital currency would be as safe as the traditional central bank-issued paper notes and that it could even be used without requiring an internet connection. This offline feature is one of its major selling points as monetary transactions can still be carried out even in the face of communication breakdowns resulting from natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis and so on.   In 2014, the Chinese central bank set up a research party to explore the possibilities of a China-based digital currency to reduce the costs of producing and circulating paper money, which in turn would boost policymakers’ control over the supply of money.   Information about the development of this new digital currency was unknown to the public until last month when Mu announced that the innovation was almost ready.   US-based financial magazine Forbes has made claims that the currency would be ready by November 11.   Analysts are saying that the announcement made by social media giants, Facebook on the release of its digital coin, Libra, is the reason for the acceleration of the push towards digital currency by the PBoC.   Mu made mention of how the new digital currency would strike a balance between allowing anonymous payments and preventing money-laundering as compared to Libra. Although the Chinese digital currency may bear some resemblances with Libra, it would possess characteristics that even Libra didn’t have.   Facebook’s Libra Facebook’s Libra has sparked a lot of worries among global regulators that it could become the predominant digital payment format and could become a medium for money laundering considering the social media’s wide reach.   Libra is said to be a digital currency that would be backed by several real-world assets, including bank deposits and government securities, and it will be held by a network of stewards. The structure of Libra is predicated on promoting trust and to stabilize its price.   Finally, Mu further discussed the superiority of the digital currency over altcoins was that others could go bankrupt and cause its users huge losses. Thus he said, can never be the case of PBoC’s new currency.   Source: https://learn2.trade         
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