Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

End of bar....do you mean that could be a valid approach? Does anybody actually trade like this (successfully)? My feeling was it would put the stop too far away? Have seen one or two mentions by Spyder regarding EOB trading but nothing clear...But I really am eager to hear your comments on this...

 

In a related matter,I am looking for a good way to enter Pt 3's....they seen easy to spot....considering only the 5 min ES and the 2 Min YM, what I came up with is, after the ES x2x , the ES retrace pt 2-3. Then enter End of YM Bar when you get one of the SFC's (see above post) on the 2 min YM. I also filter them into the ones that retrace a certain percentage of the pt 1-2 move, but that is just a personal technique designed to stop me from entering too soon.

 

I saw other suggestions (from Vorzo in the IR thread "For 123 pt3s, I like to see one bar in the direction of the 123 channel to consider it a pt3, and will enter on next bar if it breaks the end of the pt3 bar (BBO) on rising volume (over prior bar) and fast or extreme PRV.") but this seems very late for many pt 3's?

 

Thanks!

 

Vienna

Yes. I believe "end of bar" to be a low stress valid approach.

If I trust the rest of spydertrader's teachings and recommendations, I see no reason not to believe him on the "end of bar" too. He seems to have went through all the tools, and eventually to settle for a lower stress approach of just a few trades / reversals per day.

With this method price stops are not meant to be hit, excepting in rare emergency situations.

To be clear: trading "end of bar" means that you'll not usually trade at the optimum moment, not even on the optimum bar, but you don't really need to do so. You just need a way of making money in a consistent manner. It is like in The Rolling Stones' song: "You can't always get what you want / But if you try sometime you just might find / You get what you need".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Because we have chosen to use the ES five minute as our trading 'view' of the market, we may experience a 'change signal' just before, just at or just after the period of time we refer to as 'the now.' As a trader, each must decide how to define 'sufficient data set' with respect to their particular trading resolution, and more importantly, knowledge and experience. As long as each trader defines their specific rule set, and then, maintains the discipline required to follow the rule set, then the trader has already fought half the battle. Ultimately, the market decides, whether or not, a specific rule set with respect to 'sufficiency' measures as appropriate and timely. Every other opinion matters little and effects the bottom line not at all.

 

- Spydertrader"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Fractal Jumping

 

I sometimes jump to a finer fractal unintentionally. Would like to hear from others and how they corrected it.

 

This tends to occur more often around fanning out of pt3. Looking back it is easy to see it but in real time this is not the case.

 

Thanks

 

Spydertrader once told me that "if you can't see the cycle on the 15m you're trading at too fine a level." It may not always help during real time but sometimes zooming out helps regain perspective when things get slow or sideways (fanning) and you find yourself zooming in (to the 2min YM or 1min ES). At least in my case, when things got confusing I'd get stuck looking closer and closer instead of the bigger picture.

 

Regards,

 

EZ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds good... can see how that would work for traverse level FTT's.

But what about traverse level Pt 3's? It seems that there, EOB would get you in too late...?

 

Thanks!

 

Vienna

 

Yes. I believe "end of bar" to be a low stress valid approach.....You just need a way of making money in a consistent manner.]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sounds good... can see how that would work for traverse level FTT's.

But what about traverse level Pt 3's? It seems that there, EOB would get you in too late...?

 

Thanks!

 

Vienna

Pt3 trading is pushing the traverse trading one level finer, and choosing to trade only the second anticipated dominant traverse.

On each chart resolution, the traverse level is the one that is the best defined by the volume sequences, and it is the optimum for the "end of bar" approach.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is an interesting discussion. Where one trades within the 5 minute timeframe is more of a confidence issue regarding your specific edge. IN MY OPINION the PRV is one of the most important tools in this mythology. If you trade at the end of the timeframe one would not need such a tool. You would wait for the bar to close and make your decision.

 

Personally I trade intra bar timeframe based on the PRV and wash trades if need be. I place a stop where the edge would be negated. Once your edge has been validated, one should take the trade.

 

At the end of the day, trading is execution not analysis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quote from CNMS2: "To be clear: trading "end of bar" means that you'll not usually trade at the optimum moment, not even on the optimum bar, but you don't really need to do so. You just need a way of making money in a consistent manner."

 

-When you say 'trading End of bar" do you mean that ALL decisions are made end of bar? Or just the Entry decision?

What about if you are long off an FTT, now price goes down (bar turns red) with increasing PRV. Are you still holding until End of bar? What about washes?

 

Thanks!

Vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is an interesting discussion. Where one trades within the 5 minute timeframe is more of a confidence issue regarding your specific edge. IN MY OPINION the PRV is one of the most important tools in this mythology. If you trade at the end of the timeframe one would not need such a tool. You would wait for the bar to close and make your decision.

 

Personally I trade intra bar timeframe based on the PRV and wash trades if need be. I place a stop where the edge would be negated. Once your edge has been validated, one should take the trade.

 

At the end of the day, trading is execution not analysis.

 

Did you call this a "mythology" instead of a "methodology" on purpose?:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Did you call this a "mythology" instead of a "methodology" on purpose?:)

 

That is pretty funny. Hopefully it was not a Freudian slip, rather fat fingers, since I use it.

 

Well spotted.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote from CNMS2: "To be clear: trading "end of bar" means that you'll not usually trade at the optimum moment, not even on the optimum bar, but you don't really need to do so. You just need a way of making money in a consistent manner."

 

 

-When you say 'trading End of bar" do you mean that ALL decisions are made end of bar? Or just the Entry decision?

What about if you are long off an FTT, now price goes down (bar turns red) with increasing PRV. Are you still holding until End of bar? What about washes?

 

Thanks!

Vienna

I meant taking routine trades close to the end of the bar, or when there is only a slim chance that your analysis of that bar can still be materially affected. Obviously you have to use the emergency breaks if something out of ordinary happens: a news spike, etc.. I don't think that washes can be reconciled with end of bar trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have attached a perfect example where I would jump fractals. Live market now in SPI.

 

Either B2B or fanning out of 3. The confusion is due to the red volume bars prior to the black are much higher, increasing red vs decreasing black.

 

Any suggestions appreciated.

 

Thanks

jump.thumb.png.72484bc40483b4954d47c7a0f85c97a3.png

Edited by xioxxio

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have attached a perfect example where I would jump fractals. Live market now in SPI.

 

Either B2B or fanning out of 3. The confusion is due to the red volume bars prior to the black are much higher, increasing red vs decreasing black.

 

Any suggestions appreciated.

 

Thanks

 

You broke the red RTL on Inc black volume (intrabar)...good enough does not say it has to CLOSE above the RTL on black volume.... Then you get a black bar that clears the RTL (Mak term). That means that red container is done, finished for the time being. So you have B2B and can anticipate a retrace toe pt 3 (which might well happen inside the previous red traverse) and then you need IBV to confirm the pt 3. Note that this whole new up traverse is probably nondom - THAT is what the lower black vol bars tell you.

 

 

hth, just my opinion

vienna :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have attached a chart which shows Spyders toolset for TN and the other chart shows regular volume based on up/down colour coding based off the close. See the huge discrepancy. One is decreasing black the other is deceasing red.

 

Would like to hear people's thoughts.

 

Thanks

Volume.thumb.png.3625449f11e40c41f9afd0de4d42b0b8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This time Spyders tool set won the battle. It is not always the case

 

I would still like to hear thoughts, I think Ninja Trader users also have Spyders toolset.

 

Thanks

war.thumb.png.5a6aecc711651fdba6a09609a2efb698.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have attached a chart which shows Spyders toolset for TN and the other chart shows regular volume based on up/down colour coding based off the close. See the huge discrepancy. One is decreasing black the other is deceasing red.

 

Would like to hear people's thoughts.

 

Thanks

based on this TN vol coloring is more advance than NT vol coloring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
based on this TN vol coloring is more advance than NT vol coloring.

 

I just had a quick check. You are right, there looks like a very small difference.

Ninja.thumb.png.d455f534656f39123d5d82c7a47aa7c3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have attached a perfect example where I would jump fractals. Live market now in SPI.

 

Either B2B or fanning out of 3. The confusion is due to the red volume bars prior to the black are much higher, increasing red vs decreasing black.

 

Any suggestions appreciated.

 

Thanks

 

 

Let's say that a red sequence starts like you've annotated it on your chart. Bar two starts a lateral, and without any lateral FBO's, everything inside the lateral is part of a faster fractal, which should be ignored. This means that the gaussian R2R should be extended to the IBGS bar around 10:45. Therefore, the black bars that comes afterwards can only be onle thing - a non-dominant building block (2B). You need an additional red building block (with increasing volume - 2R) to complete the sequence.

 

My advise:

 

1: Research the role of laterals and the meaning for your trading fractal

2: Look at how Spyder annotate gaussians. It's different from your method. Perhaps you can improve in this regard...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This means that the gaussian R2R should be extended to the IBGS bar around 10:45. Therefore, the black bars that comes afterwards can only be onle thing - a non-dominant building block (2B). You need an additional red building block (with increasing volume - 2R) to complete the sequence.

 

 

I see it now, thanks. Would that not be the case with carry over? In Australia the stocks open from 10:00am to 10:08am so I usually ignore the first two bars of the day. I then start looking for the for the pt1 to pt2 to p3.

 

Cary over does not always work.

Edited by xioxxio

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Cary over does not always work.

 

 

I've been trading the ES for 5 years now. Carry-over works every day. I don't trade Australia stocks so I can't comment on those though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread has been a mammoth read, but a really interesting one!

 

Can anyone explain PRV and its useage in a bit greater detail? How big a factor is PRV in each setup?

 

Also, in Mak's spreadsheet, why is the PRV tendency measured and logged over ten 30 second intervals? - how is this information used? I couldn't see anything about this in Spydertraders Hershey PDF

 

thanks in advance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This thread has been a mammoth read, but a really interesting one!

 

Can anyone explain PRV and its useage in a bit greater detail? How big a factor is PRV in each setup?

 

Also, in Mak's spreadsheet, why is the PRV tendency measured and logged over ten 30 second intervals? - how is this information used? I couldn't see anything about this in Spydertraders Hershey PDF

 

thanks in advance

 

A good place to start.

 

Forums - Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 25th November 2021. Market Update – November 25 – Solid US data lifts USD, Stocks, & Yields. USD (USDIndex 96.70) holds on at 16-mth highs; Strong set of US data yesterday GDP (2.1%) up a tick but missed by a tick, Claims (199k) at 52-yr low, PCE (0.4% m/m & 4.1% y/y), in-line & largest since Jan.1991, along with a big beat (5.9%) for GDP Price index, Durable Goods (0.5%) in-line, Personal Spending (1.3%) a big beat, Personal Income (0.5%) a beat, Trade balance a big beat (14.6%) on strong Exports, Inventories (-2.2%) a big miss, but shows demand is strong. Consumer Sentiment a beat and New Home Sales flat (745K) and missed. Stocks & Yields pushed higher, Oil held onto gains and Gold tested 3-week lows.   The FOMC Minutes showed (1) there could be a faster taper than the $15bn/mth currently planned, (2) Inflation could indeed be “persistent” (3) Clear division over 2022/23 rate hike cycle, Doves hold sway for now. US Yields 10yr trades at 1.644%, down from yesterday’s 1.694% high. Equities – Gains into the Holiday USA500 +10.76 (0.23%) at 4701 – USA500.F trades higher at 4713. USOil – peaked at $78.53 Inventories +1.0 vs -1.7 weakened prices – now at $77.65 Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1216, having broken 1.1200, USDJPY now 115.36, from 115.50 & Cable back to 1.3350 from 1.3315 yesterday. Overnight – JPY PPI (1.0%) hit a 10-yr high, German GDP and consumer confidence both missed (1.7% vs 1.8% and -1.6% vs -1.0%) respectively. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 16 ticks, while US futures are slightly in the red. Bunds already outperformed yesterday, as EZ spreads widened in the wake of hawkish leaning ECB comments & confirmation that German finance ministry will go to the liberal FDP, which likely means more resistance to debt mutualisation across the EZ & more pressure on ECB to limit asset purchases. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.4% & 0.3% respectively & US futures are posting gains of 0.3-0.4%, suggesting markets are coping quite well with the prospect of less accommodative policies. Indeed, it seems to an extent that they welcome the CB’s acknowledgement that inflation risks could be less temporary than previously thought. Today – ECB Minutes, ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde and BOE’s Bailey Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (0.20%) The rally from Tuesday’s low under 90.00 has been sustained with 91.25 being tested earlier today. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising & over 0 line, RSI 61, H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.707. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 24th November 2021. Market Update – November 24 – USD & Yields Higher, Stocks Mixed, Oil Recovers. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD (USDIndex 96.50) holds on at highs; EM currencies under particular pressure. (TRY lost 15% after Erdogan refused a rate rise). RBNZ raised rates but NZD fell (like the last time they raised rates!) JPY Inflation 2 ticks better than expected. USDJPY at January 2017 levels around 115.00. PMI data better across the globe, Stocks mixed in US & Asia, Yields bid, Oil recovered significantly and Gold pressured by yields. Biden invites Taiwan to its “Summit for Democracy”, WHO talks of additional 700k Covid deaths across Europe (Slovakia latest to talk lockdowns). US Yields 10yr trades at 1.667%, down from yesterday’s 1.684% high. Equities Mixed. Musk sold more stock, Banks & Oil majors lead. USA500 +7.76 (0.17%) at 4690 – USA500.F trades lower at 4684. USOil – rallied over 3% to $78.20 highs despite global strategic reserves being sold to cool prices. Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1245, USDJPY over 115.23, earlier now at 114.88 & Cable back to 1.3375. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 26 ticks, US futures also broadly higher. RBNZ delivered expected rate hike & markets seem to be scaling back fears of escalating inflation as even dovish leaning BoE & ECB members highlight risk of second round effects. ECB VP Guindos highlighted overnight that the drivers of inflation are becoming more structural, which adds to signals that the CB is finally ready to start reining in stimulus. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.3% & 0.2% respectively. Today – Big data day ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend. – German Ifo, US Weekly Claims GDP, PCE, Durables, FOMC Mins. & ECB speak Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) RBNZ in-line but Dovish, sank from breach of 80.00 yesterday to 79.24, and 79.40 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & below 0 line, RSI 35 & weak, Stochs OS. H1 ATR 0.17, Daily ATR 0.70. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • EURUSD HOVERS NEAR MULTI-MONTH LOW, UNDER 1.1250 LEVEL   EURUSD Price Analysis – November 24 Throughout the session, the EURUSD pair remained on the losing side and was last seen moving with considerable losses around the 1.1250-36 level. The announcement that the White House has opted to reappoint incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a second term sparked the recent strong dip. The spot is trading at 1.1253 at the time of writing, down 0.25 percent on the day. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1422, 1.1300 Support Levels: 1.1200, 1. 1150, 1.1100 EURUSD Long term Trend: Bearish EURUSD has sunk to fresh multi-day lows, as seen on the daily chart, after extending the recent breach beneath the moving averages 5 around the 1.1300 level. This exposes the possibility of a deeper pullback and a re-test of the psychological support around 1.1200. Under the 1.1200 level, the euro’s underlying bullish attitude is in jeopardy. Overall, the EURUSD stays bearish while trading under the major horizontal support turned resistance and significant level at 1.1422. A breakout of the 1.1300 level, on the other hand, would aim for the 1.1350 level on the way to the 1.1400 zones. The fall of the 1.1200 zones, in the alternative scenario, is viewed as a bearish continuation indicator. EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish The risk is weighted to the negative on the 4-hour chart, as the pair is developing below the firmly bearish 5 and 13 moving averages. Technical indicators have shifted to the downside, with negative levels. However, in the present scenario, the RSI has not yet reached oversold territory, allowing for more selling. On the upside, a break over the modest resistance level of 1.1300 might shift the intraday bias to neutral. On the downside, the 1.1200 zones provide initial support. The next important level of support is around the 1.1150 mark. If there are any more losses, the 1.1100 extension level of the low decline may be tested. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • IS IT RATIONAL TO SETTLE FOR 10% RETURNS PER MONTH? “One of the secrets few know and fewer implement when it comes to trading success is that you have to really care about doing well. These days, I see a lot of traders not caring enough, not prioritizing learning about trading, and making pathetic weak-willed excuses.” – Chris T. Perfectionism – a bane of the trading world When people look for a solution to their trading problems, they tend to look for the solution in the wrong places, having the wrong mindset. One problem with most traders is perfectionism. For instance, we tend to go to those who promise us 50% to 100% per week or month. If someone gives an estimate of 5% profits per month, we would think that is too small. If an investment salesperson promises huge returns in a short period of time, we’re drawn to them. What if I tell you that 5% per month is good returns on your trading or investment, would you agree with me? Is 60% growth per annum not good enough? Many years ago, one of my mentors in the financial industry told me that, even 20% growth per annum is good. In schools, we tend to ridicule those who make average grades and praise those who make excellent grades. The same is true of the world of sports. Do you think great sports teams win all their matches always? No! But they do well over time. Are 10% gains per month too low? Now let me ask these questions: How much percentage do you earn on your savings account per annum? How much do you earn on your fixed deposit account per month? How many people can pay off their mortgages within one year? If you buy a bus, to use for commercial purposes, is it easy for you to recover your money in one year? Can you buy a property and sell it for 100% profit within 10 months? If you found a startup, how long do you think it would take you to start making profits? Please attempt to answer these questions yourself, based on real-life experiences. Now, back to the question that makes the last subheading: Are 10% gains per month too low? Why do we tend to be unrealistic and fallacious when it comes to online trading? Making 10% returns per month from Learn2.trade crypto signals One good thing about the margin trading of cryptos is that you can make money, both in bull and bear markets. You don’t make money only when the price is going up. If your timing and methodology are right, you can predict a downward movement or an upward movement and participate in them. Learn2.trade provides quality crypto signals to interested traders. Each signal comes with stop loss and take profit targets. Sometimes a trade is closed before the stop or the target is hit. We use 5 types of orders for the crypto signals. They are Instant Execution, also known as Market Execution, Buy Limit, Sell Limit, Buy Stop, and Sell Stop. Generating an average of 2 – 3 signals per day, we also use risk settings that are usually around 1% per trade and we attempt to gain more than we risk. As these signals are sent, we ensure that we also use them, practicing what we preach. Learn2.trade crypto signals – recent performances Please check the image below to peruse what has been made recently. You see can that we use stop loss, and use small lot sizes, relative to the size of the accounts. It just doesn’t make sense to bet too big on an individual trade. You can also see that we have both losses and profits. However, our average profits are bigger than average losses. That is the pedigree of a viable/ promising strategy: Make more money than you lose. Therefore, losses and drawdowns are also tightly controlled so that they don’t have significant effects on the account. These kinds of drawdowns are shallow, for recovery and eventual growth always happen. The markets are difficult but profitable Making consistent, regular profits from the market is hard, but success is possible. When the markets prove difficult, then we only need creative approaches. Markets will continue to prove uneasy and tough, but we will continue to make profits from them, no matter what. We target 10% profits per month, though we make more than this in most cases. 100% profits every 10 months is an enviable achievement. If 10% gains per month are compounded, the results in a few to several years will be amazing. Yes, you should be aware of the power of compounding. Join us today, in this journey of regular, monthly profits. Please see the image above, to know relevant metrics and figures of the recent results of the strategy behind the signals. You can join us here for, few free crypto signals per week: For Cryptos. Or you can hop in, and become our VIP right away, and enjoy all our crypto signals, up to 3 signals per day. Get access to the ability to make 10% or more per month. You can monitor our crypto signals trading performances here: L2T Crypto Signals on MyFxbook   Source: https://learn2.trade   
    • Yes trading currencies is much more risky than trading stocks, since they're not supported by central bank policy efforts but instead freely fluctuation in a very random fashion. Profits can create wrong impression that you learned how to trade but often it is just the product of pure luck. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.