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thalestrader

Reading Charts in Real Time

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The red rectangle represents the level at which I would be interested in a possible sell and hold on the ES (somehwere at, near, or above 1117) ...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=18828&stc=1&d=1265213282

 

 

This is all hindsight, however.... wait a second, how can it be hindsight? It hasn't even happened yet. I've gotten a bit confused as some have used hindsight and foresight interchangeably when referring to this thread.

 

Best WIshes,

 

Thales

5aa70fc3d0f27_2010-01-03ESwithSellZone1.thumb.jpg.05ab43212feb15e03eb495714648e77c.jpg

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Current view of crude ... sell limit to go short at 78.02, with a 25 cent stop loss above. This is a demo trade, and I have been approaching crude a bit differently than I do the ES and currencies. Even though it is demo, I treat it as real, and I employ very aggressive trade management (stop loss and rip cord). The only difference between demo and real is that if I wee trading this manner with real dough, I'd wait for price to get to the level, and then enter on a market order if I thought I was seeing what I need to see to go short. But I am also trying to make some real dough elsewhere, so I have to make that one concession to demo trading (I may be filled into a position I might not have wanted by the time price gets there).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fc3d607d_2010-01-03CLSell78.02limit1.thumb.jpg.5cf37c34d53b17260b4c6a941670d75b.jpg

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Current view of crude ... sell limit to go short at 78.02, with a 25 cent stop loss above. This is a demo trade, and I have been approaching crude a bit differently than I do the ES and currencies. Even though it is demo, I treat it as real, and I employ very aggressive trade management (stop loss and rip cord). The only difference between demo and real is that if I wee trading this manner with real dough, I'd wait for price to get to the level, and then enter on a market order if I thought I was seeing what I need to see to go short. But I am also trying to make some real dough elsewhere, so I have to make that one concession to demo trading (I may be filled into a position I might not have wanted by the time price gets there).

 

Best Wishes,Thales

 

 

Doesn't get more straightforward than that. I'm curious to see what happens below the 76.70 area. Looks like there may e nothing but air there, possible.

 

20100203-ngu4hhhfew7qxp2a1y7qfa7imf.preview.jpg

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

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This is why I hate BE and trailing stops etc. Grrr.

 

 

I love BE ... I have very large and growing collection of BE trades such as this one on the 6E (actually -1 tick) ... I can think of nothing better than to lose small so that you are still around on those occassions when you can win big.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fc3edd25_2010-01-036E4.thumb.jpg.43c67f8e423bdf39eef70a67a2de6612.jpg

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I love BE ... I have very large and growing collection of BE trades such as this one on the 6E (actually -1 tick) ... I can think of nothing better than to lose small so that you are still around on those occassions when you can win big.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I do it for the sake of a smoother equity curve. But I'm usually at around 1:7 R/R, meaning that if the move to BE costs me a full trade, it has to save me 6 or 7 more times to make up for it. Which it may in the long term.

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the current natural gas chart.

 

I think it is commonly referred to as "drives" to a bottom or top. I have also heard it called three "pushes," and Raschke calls it, if I am not mistaken, "three indians." So Three dives to a bottom works for me. Though you'll need to come up with something else for a top, because visually, a "dive" to the top seems problematic. But yes, that looks to me like three "dives" to a bottom.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited by thalestrader

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Here is the current ES, 60 and 15 minutes views, showing my preferred entry point in blue. This is Jonbig's trade, though Jon's style is to enter much closer to resistance for a more favorable entry than I in terms f location to risk point. Again, no trades this morning yet for me, as I am just trying to locate where price is on the markets I trade. I would hope that the expert lurkers would at least agree that part of reading charts in real time is identifying whether or not price is at S/R or if is in the middle of nowhere and travelling to its next S/R rest area.

 

Es has traded to what I would have set as the first PT to the tick (so it may have taken a manual exit to take profits, and perhaps for 2-3 ticks less than would have been planned for.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=18843&stc=1&d=1265217636

 

The red zone that appears north of current PA is, to reiterate, an anticipated resistance level at which, should price trade, I would be looking for a sell indication for a possible sell and hold.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fc428624_2010-01-03ESPT11.thumb.jpg.8cc574d772f2cadf96f5c9c374a4cf87.jpg

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JonBig04 - as aside - you sound similar to me.... trying for the bigger moves, and I hate BE for the same reasons as you, but also love it for the same reasons as Thales.

stopped at BE/small loss today twice when I normally might not have.... but stuck to the plan and made money.... so feeling good today.....such is life.

 

This is all just my current thinking on it....

 

Previously I was pretty loose with stops for your reasons (disciplined but loose) .... I think you need to be, and be prepared just to say I am wrong, and have a wider stop to account for the volatility.... less contracts but more scope.

Its like you only have two choices - be really tight, or a little looser.... but not in between if you know what I mean.Each have their advantages/disadvantages and each have differing reentry and or reversal levels I feel.

I am currently trying experimenting a bit with more shorter term trades to complement and complicate things, but had another thread going here about trend trades and taking profits, covering some of this. I am putting together a list of thoughts, solutions etc that when i get finished I will post there. Otherwise, its all about fitting styles to personalities.

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Current look at the 6E shows a long sequence wih a very poor RR. Of course, there is nothing to say that if it hits PT1, it doesn't continue higher. Perhaps I could plan instead to move the stop to BE should it trade at PT1 levels, and then play for the PT2 level.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fc430bee_2010-01-036EpoorRR1.thumb.jpg.c7ccd726ce701347d50f0f6591c65188.jpg

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stopped at BE/small loss today twice when I normally might not have.... but stuck to the plan and made money.... so feeling good today.....such is life.

 

I do not think one way is "right" or "better" than the other, it all depends upon you the trader and what you want to get out of the market. The main thing is to plan your approach and then apply it consistently. Consistency will not assure a positive expectancy, but it will let you control for various factor in order to correct a negative expectancy or improve a positive one. I have seen many, including myself over the years, get tripped up when I mix one type of entry with the planned trade management for another type of entry.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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