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Failure to Breach.

 

(I see TradeRunner is watching my back)

 

Thanks, I actually was asking about the previous day tupapa asked you about. For number 3, he asked why no short, and you said congestion. It doesn't look like congestion until after the red circle he has drawn where the entry would be.

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Thanks, I actually was asking about the previous day tupapa asked you about. For number 3, he asked why no short, and you said congestion. It doesn't look like congestion until after the red circle he has drawn where the entry would be.

 

You're assessing it in hindsight. Read left to right, not right to left. Via replay.

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In order to avoid an unnecessary number of posts for each day's trading, I'm going to return to this and add to it as the need arises during the day. Therefore, even though you've "read it", come back to it for updates.

 

First, a look at breadth.

 

Second, the dailies.

 

Third, the hourly.

 

Fourth, 5m.

 

Fifth, the trading session until 1130. Win 88%, Profit 90%.

 

 

Those who want to track this arc from the beginning should click here, April 2nd. The cumulative win rate so far is 83.5% and the profit % is 91.

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Edited by DbPhoenix

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Dunno if anybody here trades EOD but Bunds are at Resistance and:

 

-There was a break of the DL.

-Wave 2 was longer than Wave 1 in time and extent.

 

If buyers can't push above resistance and wave 3 results in a LH/Double Top, a short seems legit to me...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35792&stc=1&d=1366051483

Bund.thumb.png.6d8203c129fb24c8d04c355085be8716.png

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Interesting to see how price behaved when it reached the levels of support drawn above (two posts up), first bouncing off 2810, then dropping all the way to the trendline (and, again, trendlines don't offer support or resistance; price turned there because of the distance from the mean).

 

It's particularly interesting to note how price behaved when it reached the trendline (second chart). It then launched itself into "oversold" territory and retreated back into the warmth and comfort of the trend (it currently sits at 2809). Of course, it could reverse again and plummet. But so far everything is panning out the way it usually does.

 

Chart 3, Hourly

 

Chart 4, 5m

 

There were a half-dozen risk-free entries on the 5m yesterday after the bounce off 2770, even if one just set a cover stop and went to bed.

 

 

 

I'm going to wrap it up early. Rarely have I seen buyers and sellers so evenly matched. Though I wasn't expecting fireworks today, this is rather pitiful, and if I weren't doing this for demonstration purposes, I probably wouldn't even have traded at all today.

 

Plus there's the fact that here it is 1045EST and I'm the only one who's posted anything to TL, except for a few vendors, so I'm more or less talking to myself.

 

For anyone who's keeping track, win % today was 33 and the profit % was 53 (cumulative win%, 78, profit %, 88).

T1.png.f4d33fe6ebfa4533aedc086397c7ac09.png

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T3.png.1a2006c6804505760073f0130c473087.png

T4.png.14f843b917d8fefc6b89663b7c3fb689.png

Edited by DbPhoenix

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what if % profit? % of what?

 

The percentage of traded points that were in profit. If you trade 10pts and nine of them are in profit, your profit % is 90.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Today was disappointing in that I knew what to look for and what to do when I saw it, but price zipped right past my entry.

 

The "oversold" condition of a couple of days ago was not rectified the next day, and yesterday price dropped right back down to that level and below. This was not good. Buyers had today to step up to the plate, and they didn't. And since everyone was looking at this and many had written about it, I expected something reasonably decisive at or near the open, but not so decisive that I couldn't get a trade on. What could have done was enter premkt, but that's outside my risk tolerance on a day which is expected to be "volatile".

 

In any case, thinking that there might conceivably be support at last night's swing lows and that buyers might actually show up and that sellers might be using this as an opportunity to profit from what might turn out to be a fakeout, I took the long opportunity. But buyers never showed up. So the LOLR was clear.

 

Next support level was 38, but I wasn't going to wait and hope. 13pts was perfectly okay with me for 45m work.

 

Win % 100, Profit % 100. Cum Win % 82, Cum Profit % 90.

Th1.png.a0b4309c7543ff1910b0a92a0948e7e0.png

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The percentage of traded points that were in profit. If you trade 10pts and nine of them are in profit, your profit % is 90.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Today was disappointing in that I knew what to look for and what to do when I saw it, but price zipped right past my entry.

 

The "oversold" condition of a couple of days ago was not rectified the next day, and yesterday price dropped right back down to that level and below. This was not good. Buyers had today to step up to the plate, and they didn't. And since everyone was looking at this and many had written about it, I expected something reasonably decisive at or near the open, but not so decisive that I couldn't get a trade on. What could have done was enter premkt, but that's outside my risk tolerance on a day which is expected to be "volatile".

 

In any case, thinking that there might conceivably be support at last night's swing lows and that buyers might actually show up and that sellers might be using this as an opportunity to profit from what might turn out to be a fakeout, I took the long opportunity. But buyers never showed up. So the LOLR was clear.

 

Next support level was 38, but I wasn't going to wait and hope. 13pts was perfectly okay with me for 45m work.

 

Win % 100, Profit % 100. Cum Win % 82, Cum Profit % 90.

 

Hi Db, why did you wait for the LL for the short, you ussually enter earlier. Was there something here that told you to wait for the confirmation at the break of S?

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I was wondering if anybody would notice that since I generally avoid breakouts. But it seemed highly unlikely that price would rebound given the circumstances, S or no S. And you'll notice that pause of agreement just before price breaks the swing low. That suggested that something was going to happen. It wouldn't have cost anything to bracket the trade, and I should probably tell you that I did, but I didn't, because a another rally didn't make any sense given the circumstances. But I should have anyway to set a good example.

 

But I also thought that if price broke down it wouldn't futz around, and if I didn't take the breakdown it would very likely be nearly done before any sort of RET took place. And the risk was pretty much zip. So I took it.

 

As for why I didn't enter the short earlier, there was no RET.

Edited by DbPhoenix

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First chart: Took this shot yesterday evening and nothing has changed. We'll see what happens.

 

Open: Traders so eager to short can't even wait for the opening bell.

 

Failed to get filled twice.

 

Recap: Really wasn't into it today, but here it is anyway.

 

First short is off a RET after a breakdown through S. Second is off R. With these I don't wait for a RET because they usually take so long that by the time they occur you're already at S. Third trade is a RET off an HL and of course the break of the SL.

 

There is then another test of R but I didn't take a short here because of the previous higher low. Could have taken it anyway and exited with a small loss, but it seemed to me that buyers were in charge, again because of the higher low, which made for a shorter sell wave.

 

Next short is off a RET after the DL break. No subsequent op for a long bec no RET. Short after that is again off a RET after the DL break. Then it looked like we were getting into a TR and it was getting late and I was bored. So I quit.

 

However, for the sake of closure, just after that we broke upward to the next level of R (third chart). This is interesting because we formed a little mini-TC which included an HL. Even though we were just below an R level, one could have taken a long there for an additional 9pts. Or he could have waited until price broke thru and taken a long off that little springboard for an additional 2pts. Looks easy in hindsight, but if you're bored and tired, it's not so easy. But that's how it would have played had it been traded.

 

Win% 67, Profit% 94. Cum Win% 81, Cum Profit% 90.

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F3.png.b27b46a10a833c7c78f42e06b18d1c9f.png

Edited by DbPhoenix

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Hi There -

 

Apologies ahead of time.... I'm sure this has been asked in this thread somewhere, just haven't been able to locate the post.

 

Just curious of the importance of understanding figure charts. Also, the importance of the ability to actually plot out each figure to help us better understand vertical charts more.

 

I could easily spend a few weeks on this area alone and just want to see if it was even an area with considering putting alot of time into.

 

Thanks to everybody who puts the time and effort in here to stay consistent! :helloooo:

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i see three options.

 

immediate weekly trend TL is broken (yellow)

no new lows, in fact HL and HH after the break

hinge at 04/19/2013

 

1. i'll wait for price to BO above 2780, pullback and then enter long, looking closely for any signs of R from the LSH (red arrow)

2. i'll wait for price to re-test 2760 area, if holds i'll go long

3. i'll wait for price to re-test 2760 area, if breaks i'll go short

 

P.S. zooming out to the 60M, 360M, reveals that the down TL is still intact

taking that into account i would avoid any directional bias.

 

Tomer.

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35829&stc=1&d=1366436794

Wk1-1.thumb.png.1c5d23c8a38840394fc2140183fde43f.png

Edited by tomerok

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Actually I was referring to the entire week, beginning with Monday. A 30m bar chart for the previous week was also posted, though anyone who is interested can convert these to 60m bars or 5H or 12H or whatever.

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Actually I was referring to the entire week, beginning with Monday. A 30m bar chart for the previous week was also posted, though anyone who is interested can convert these to 60m bars or 5H or 12H or whatever.

 

typo on my part, meant weekly trend, re-edited that.

 

Tomer.

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But you won't know the weekly trend on Monday. What do you do on the 15th? And each day thereafter?

 

I was referring to my post in which i completely misunderstood your question.:doh:

 

of course i can't tell the trend on monday i would have opened up past week, month , year or whatever i needed in order to to see what going on.

 

for me looking at this chart as is without referring to the left is belongs to the CWS thread or "sharpen your entries" thread..

i have not yet mastered the surfing ability.

 

i tried to answer with that in mind and a little peaking to the left..

assuming always in position..

note the black point which represent indecision points for me.

since this is a 30M i would have liquidated and gone long, BUT let's assume this is a 1M, now there's no reason to rev since we are at the overall right direction. (small red lines marking the tops)

the second black dot would be short if i was long.

 

Tomer.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35834&stc=1&d=1366472664

Wk1-2.thumb.png.06a10561e88c4b694c0ec218b0f18beb.png

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