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minoo

Charting the Past Bears

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Is the Bear waking up or the Bull trying to Push through make new Highs and Top

 

Very concern with the Unusual Bank Holiday Activity in the Futures Market today

 

Seeing such Volatility in futures market (ie Indices down, VIX & Gold up, Perhaps Bonds and USD may follow up soon) on Bank Holiday is much concerning

 

There are several Gaps on All Indices to be filled at lower side and also at Historical Level much lower down.

 

So many of the Cycles have failed on the correction side and Continuously Surprised us on the Upside.

 

Is this October 2017 time to prepare and Go Hunting South with The Bears Seasonally (Short Term) or Cyclically (Mid to Long Term Correction to Bearish Cycle) ?

 

Anticipated correction by so many pundits so far has delayed the correction; So are we at The Very Beginning of an Historical Moment Now (Oct 2017 Top & Crash)?

 

Many have said the Correction / Crash may come, more due to Geo-Political reason rather than economical. But also true is a substantial Correction is overdue Technically / Cyclically speaking

 

Is it worth taking any more Risk in the Market Upside any more ?

 

Normally most are complacently (Low Historical VIX) indulgent and few hesitantly concerns become early Bears at such anticipated market Tops.

 

More often than not The Market has continue and most of us cannot time either the Tops or Bottoms, So is it worth traders being nimble and caution and also have reached time to establish Hedge to our Portfolio.

 

Keeping an Open Mind but noting as well The Very Unusual Market movement this October Bank Holiday. (The Scent of The Bear ???)

 

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016-2/

 

Any Comments Welcome

 

Regards Minoo

Edited by minoo

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Question Ask Was

 

How do we Protect from the Anticipated Downside, which has failed to play out ?

 

Attempted Answer:

 

I can only chime here what I have started to do increasingly in the market

 

-Locked in Profit to Get out

(I am out over 80% of my Portfolio Positions which cannot be executed during over night hours, also have Tighten my Stops on the remaining Positions)

 

-To make most out of a sudden drop or to strategically Hook the Top in

(As market establishes new highs percentage of locked in gains is allocated; To go long in VIX and USD positions using Options and Futures)

 

-Simple Risk Off Trade: Go Long Bonds & Notes ETFs (TLT, IEI, IEF etc)

 

For me its not just worth risking these Abnormal Gains and still wait for market Top (or trying to time the top that's very Risky thing to do & remain long with anticipated Bears Fear)

 

Simply Book or at least Lock in Profit and if you must than establish some sensible Hedges (ie Go long on VIX & USD)

 

I am avoiding Gold Holdings as well as interest rates are far too low.

 

One should plan to protect Financial-Capital as well as your 'Mental Capital'.

(Think if the Bear strikes how good a position you are going to be in & what percentage gain is remaining to be on upside and How much to the Downside & most importantly will you have time to get out ???)

 

As financially most have achieved its time to collect & protect; and equally to take care of Mental Part (I want to book profits now and not be sorry later, but rather make something if the Bear Strikes Suddenly)

 

ie Balancing Both of Greed and Fear factor Within one traderself.

 

Thanks for asking.

 

All The Best

Minoo

 

Greed = Is also defined as 'Fear of Missing Out'

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(KD and co.)

 

Thankfully I have not 'feared missing out'. What happened with me - I recently noticed my own uptick in fearlessness when going long. That is precisely what prompted me to start upsizing shorts and downsizing longs... just sayin.

 

Changes are to size only... no changes made in ‘biases’ and system signals and triggers (yet)

 

Thanks for your posts Minoo

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(for purposes of levity... in a forum where rationality runs rampant) and

Charting the Past Bears

 

anyone remember the Oct 13 1989 'crash'?

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These new Articles are in line with the thread theme 'Charting The Past Bear'

 

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14342432/1/black-monday-flash-crash-emotional-investing.html

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/a-crazy-stock-market-is-punishing-sellers

 

1987 Versus 2017: Will History Repeat Or Just Echo? | Zero Hedge

 

Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead, Asks "Should We Be Worried?" | Zero Hedge

 

Option Expiry Week is normally Positive But remember its October-OE week without the 'Sell in May' effect

Plus we are here with Fear of impending Market Correction (ie Market/Crowd will latch on any Bad news if its to Correct or Crash)

 

Last remaining Good Big News on Tax Cuts are being Priced in (ie Market Consolidating and may initially Spike-Up)

 

But What after Such Event ? Will it give you the chance to Lock in profit;

And Will your Big Bullish Self allow to Book some Profits

 

What will Successful Bull BIAS Psyche make one Believe &/or Do?

 

Time to at least have a Plan (to live / die by)

 

Trend and Trade The Bull Carefully

 

Much Good Trading Sense to you Folks

Minoo

 

Note: Keep an Eye on alternatives Small Companies, Base Metals, VIX & the all mighty US Dollar they may bring out 'The Market Bear'

Edited by minoo

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What will Successful Bull BIAS Psyche make one Believe &/or Do?

Minoo, that is a very beautiful question. Thank you.

 

( Meanwhile, it’s still a BTFD world ... :):) ... )

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Dear Fellow Traders

 

Sorry I cannot reply to you all personally (no I do-not know much about trading bit coin, my teenage son does much more than I do)

 

But what amazes me is some of you are already calling this the Bottom of Correction

ES Opening Hour Low (2555.50) has not even past the first hour when I started to write this in between scaling out of my positions.

 

Kindly observe the market and not trade against it, Be patience, let the emotions (ie Volatility) drain out of the markets

 

I have COP myself out (Consciously Out Position)

ie Will manage my existing positions and book profits but not take new positions

 

This could be the completion of corrective action Or Just the start of several Corrective actions. Why try to Guess the Market action when its full of Panic & Emotions (ie High Volatility)

 

I have now booked most of my profits in VIX as fear is shot up to extreme levels (ie momentum to downside and increase in Volatility).

Time allowing look at some of the VIX option Prices & Implied Volatility note how quickly it shoots up too (But equally there could be days and weeks of stagnant or loss with VIX remaining complacent and down, of course if planned properly than one could call this time of accumulation (low implied volatility in VIX (LoL, it sounds funny)

 

Just imagine if you would have put 10% of your profits to VIX Options and as it fell with crowd complacency. At new Indices highs you could plan t o Average into a good position and also could have booked some profit & Hedge your other remaining Bullish positions with holding VIX

 

This could have allowed your Trading Self to buy into Crowds Complacency and also provided a Good Hedging Mechanism which helps inner trading self to root and remain balance (The Best I know for my trading Psyche to keep my primitive mind predominant auto nature Occupied and Satisfied)

 

(Also as you hold VIX positions you are also not afraid of over night fall and if the market does not give you an chance to get out than at least you have VIX which would have rewarded you well and kept your inner traderself less fearful and balanced)

 

By the time Complacency turns Suddenly into Fear you would be in Good Position to Capitalise both financially and remain balance at market extremes. Or How else do you make most of other peoples complacency and pent up fear to Balance your one inner Trading Self.

 

For an Good Trader It needs to be an Zero Sum game not only financially but also Emotionally, If you do not plan to trade off your fear away than you will build up bigger position in it than you can handle, and more often than not, your primitive mind will kick in and take over all your discipline and written plans

 

(If you know any such way to Trade Psychologically (fear-off) and remain Balance than you are more than welcome to contribute and humbly please enlighten us)

 

Keep an Open Mind, so you allow your Psyche to remove any BIAS and trade other peoples fear and Bank your Financial and Mental Capital

 

The market as always and forever is a willing teacher but our complacent or fearful nature both hinders these opportunities to what is on offer to learn, and capitalise the very thing we all poses through our primitive mind but our leaned mind trading plan fails to plan and capitalise on.

 

“The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!”

 

You Simply have to plan for that irrational market in your trading plan, so as to not let your primitive mind take over your learned mind relegated trading plan

 

Trade Well Keeping The BIAS and Fear away

Minoo

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These are not auctions to fear. This is an excellent trading situation. As I posted Tuesday, I’m having a lot of fun taking short signals and triggers. It’s a welcome change from just intraday btfd - day in and day out. As long as ndx’s are moving... I don’t really care which way they go. What's important now (WIN) is to take every signal - ugly, plain or pretty - at optimal size...

 

oddly in both Tue and Wed’s sessions I still got a few more long triggers than short triggers, but the shorts still took in significantly more money than the longs - because the shorts got more ‘travel and as discussed above a few weeks ago, the sizing for shorts has been incrementing and sizing for longs has been decrementing.

 

It’s entirely ok for “some of you” to be “already calling this the Bottom of Correction”. Sovereign /central ‘bank’ funds are ‘tremendous, just tremendous’ factors in markets today and as long as there is not a genuine bond /debt /collateral PANIC, they can and most likely will intervene to prevent ndx ‘crashes’

 

Also, a ‘buddy rally’ would not be a surprise. Certain crowds sometimes rally an instrument to give themselves a chance to ‘double up’/ add on the short and / or give ‘affiliated’ money a chance to get in on the selloff (and vice versa...).

 

... Plus, as I have posted on TL several times over the years, I’m still calling all stock index action since 2000 a bear market masked by fiat money creation / inflation. Ie - Imo that means we’re actually ‘charting a present bear’. Dollar ‘adjusting’ according to my algorithms has ndx charts from 2000 to now in a long barely down sloping , ‘flat’-like correction ( that still has some potential to become an expanding complex “polywave ”correction via major selloff(s) ) ...

and, ’interpolating’ in that light, the DJIA currently needs to breach ~ 31,300 for me to call stock indexes a bull market... unconventional perspective :) .

 

zdo

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(CNBC) – “The level of enthusiasm about the market … has been building. We’re seeing more individuals come in,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

 

Sonders said she’s anecdotally seeing signs of more individuals putting money to work in the stock market in the last several months, after years of skepticism and concerns about “every variety of doom and gloom.”

 

She says she is getting fewer investors asking about bubbles or about what’s the next shoe to drop.

 

“I think it’s finally starting to suck people in … emotionally, and actually it’s hard to judge why now all of a sudden, but maybe it’s because of how persistent the move has been with so little volatility on the upside and on the downside,” Sonders said. “This year has been different. This kind of year pulls people in.”

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-dumbest-dumb-money-finally-gets-suckered-in-john-rubino.html

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Historical VIX corelation to S&P 500

Normally VIX trends in opposite direction to market rise, unless more funds have started to hedge their Long Portfolio by buying SPX put options

 

What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean

 

Is it due to the political tension and US Gov Closure risk or are the Markets trying to tell us something.

 

Watch the Below Video

 

What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean? ? Yori Trade World

 

The Question in my mind / journal has changed from

Q) Got Some Vix ? ----- > Q) Got Enough VIX

 

Personal Note: As S&P established new highs my mind was used to buying Cheap VIX contracts (ie VXX Options) From Last Friday (12th Pre-Bank-Holiday Week Closure) VIX started to creap up. My mind did not get an bargain as it was used to and I did not buy enough of VIX contracts this time. But had to buy some at the Friday Close with news of Gov Closure, obviously keeping VIX higher even though Markets establish new Highs

 

Take Note of this rear occurance of VIX & S&P +ve corelation fellow Traders

 

Trade Consciously of Euphoria & Risk as Mean-Reversion Event falls behind in time and becomes more prominent.

 

Rising VIX (as Fear): Could be interpretated for the Given Market Conditions as:

Gauge of Fear to the DownSide Reversion has Increase to the Prevalent Fear of Missing Out,

 

Q) Will the Traditional Safe Heaven, US Dollar make Base or Rise Suddenly. If so Base Metals may take the full brunt of Dollar Rise.

 

Q) Would we witness Bonds Bottom soon or Choose to be wiser again with Hindsight ?

 

Trade Well

Minoo

Edited by minoo

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Worth Reading the Article by Tom McClellan

 

VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Future

 

VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Futures - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

 

If a trader can anticipate & journal-to differentiate his trading emotions induced by market movement (ie bear / bull trap, head fake, stop loss run, negative cycle / price correction etc) from the resultant emotions induced by crowd reaction / volatility than perhaps he would better understand how to insure his fear or hedge his trading plan from his primitive mind trading it.

 

VIX is something every, day-trader should study & journal relative to complacency, fear of missing out & eventually fear itself.

 

Volatility is directly related to extreme emotions & such could be understood better by Studying & Hedging with VIX.

 

Secure your mental capital, so a trader can HAND-SUM-LY capitalise from Fear

 

Barter Well with This <Lanky Lady.>

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/4807-poem-lady-market.html#post51613

 

Enjoy Minoo

Edited by minoo

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I’ve been running a (bad / sample too small) poll by asking cohorts if they think this correction is part of a classic ‘pump and dump’ campaign.

Surprise Surprise Surprise... currently 90% say definitively NOT.

I’d bet if you could poll all TL’s members - past and present - the results would be similar...

 

ps and btw - they are wrong :rofl:

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re charting the past bears - Young traders are in kind of a mess these days.  They came up in an era of rigged markets (ie rigged even more than usual).  They've gotten limited experience in trading authentic selloffs / in shorting or in a diversity of bottoms to learn from.  

...and... using nominal historical charts to study past bears can present some serious hazards to certain perceptual ‘maps’. jmo

 

 

...

Are we charting a present bear yet?  I am.  It’s all still a bear to me. 

...but ... on a (nominal) chart how 2550 $SPX 'acts' is my inflection point btwn immediate deeper ‘bear’ past recent lows or a rally to 3000 $SPX or beyond.

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Posted (edited)

I think we may have Volatility this month to overcome or succumb to the Weekly 78.6% Fib Retracement

VIX may rise so getting more into the day trading mode, (if VIX open interest starts to rise)

Watch chaikin money flow into VIX

 

4MarchES&VIX.png

Edited by minoo

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