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minoo

Charting the Past Bears

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Is the Bear waking up or the Bull trying to Push through make new Highs and Top

 

Very concern with the Unusual Bank Holiday Activity in the Futures Market today

 

Seeing such Volatility in futures market (ie Indices down, VIX & Gold up, Perhaps Bonds and USD may follow up soon) on Bank Holiday is much concerning

 

There are several Gaps on All Indices to be filled at lower side and also at Historical Level much lower down.

 

So many of the Cycles have failed on the correction side and Continuously Surprised us on the Upside.

 

Is this October 2017 time to prepare and Go Hunting South with The Bears Seasonally (Short Term) or Cyclically (Mid to Long Term Correction to Bearish Cycle) ?

 

Anticipated correction by so many pundits so far has delayed the correction; So are we at The Very Beginning of an Historical Moment Now (Oct 2017 Top & Crash)?

 

Many have said the Correction / Crash may come, more due to Geo-Political reason rather than economical. But also true is a substantial Correction is overdue Technically / Cyclically speaking

 

Is it worth taking any more Risk in the Market Upside any more ?

 

Normally most are complacently (Low Historical VIX) indulgent and few hesitantly concerns become early Bears at such anticipated market Tops.

 

More often than not The Market has continue and most of us cannot time either the Tops or Bottoms, So is it worth traders being nimble and caution and also have reached time to establish Hedge to our Portfolio.

 

Keeping an Open Mind but noting as well The Very Unusual Market movement this October Bank Holiday. (The Scent of The Bear ???)

 

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016-2/

 

Any Comments Welcome

 

Regards Minoo

Edited by minoo

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Question Ask Was

 

How do we Protect from the Anticipated Downside, which has failed to play out ?

 

Attempted Answer:

 

I can only chime here what I have started to do increasingly in the market

 

-Locked in Profit to Get out

(I am out over 80% of my Portfolio Positions which cannot be executed during over night hours, also have Tighten my Stops on the remaining Positions)

 

-To make most out of a sudden drop or to strategically Hook the Top in

(As market establishes new highs percentage of locked in gains is allocated; To go long in VIX and USD positions using Options and Futures)

 

-Simple Risk Off Trade: Go Long Bonds & Notes ETFs (TLT, IEI, IEF etc)

 

For me its not just worth risking these Abnormal Gains and still wait for market Top (or trying to time the top that's very Risky thing to do & remain long with anticipated Bears Fear)

 

Simply Book or at least Lock in Profit and if you must than establish some sensible Hedges (ie Go long on VIX & USD)

 

I am avoiding Gold Holdings as well as interest rates are far too low.

 

One should plan to protect Financial-Capital as well as your 'Mental Capital'.

(Think if the Bear strikes how good a position you are going to be in & what percentage gain is remaining to be on upside and How much to the Downside & most importantly will you have time to get out ???)

 

As financially most have achieved its time to collect & protect; and equally to take care of Mental Part (I want to book profits now and not be sorry later, but rather make something if the Bear Strikes Suddenly)

 

ie Balancing Both of Greed and Fear factor Within one traderself.

 

Thanks for asking.

 

All The Best

Minoo

 

Greed = Is also defined as 'Fear of Missing Out'

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(KD and co.)

 

Thankfully I have not 'feared missing out'. What happened with me - I recently noticed my own uptick in fearlessness when going long. That is precisely what prompted me to start upsizing shorts and downsizing longs... just sayin.

 

Changes are to size only... no changes made in ‘biases’ and system signals and triggers (yet)

 

Thanks for your posts Minoo

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(for purposes of levity... in a forum where rationality runs rampant) and

Charting the Past Bears

 

anyone remember the Oct 13 1989 'crash'?

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These new Articles are in line with the thread theme 'Charting The Past Bear'

 

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14342432/1/black-monday-flash-crash-emotional-investing.html

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/a-crazy-stock-market-is-punishing-sellers

 

1987 Versus 2017: Will History Repeat Or Just Echo? | Zero Hedge

 

Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead, Asks "Should We Be Worried?" | Zero Hedge

 

Option Expiry Week is normally Positive But remember its October-OE week without the 'Sell in May' effect

Plus we are here with Fear of impending Market Correction (ie Market/Crowd will latch on any Bad news if its to Correct or Crash)

 

Last remaining Good Big News on Tax Cuts are being Priced in (ie Market Consolidating and may initially Spike-Up)

 

But What after Such Event ? Will it give you the chance to Lock in profit;

And Will your Big Bullish Self allow to Book some Profits

 

What will Successful Bull BIAS Psyche make one Believe &/or Do?

 

Time to at least have a Plan (to live / die by)

 

Trend and Trade The Bull Carefully

 

Much Good Trading Sense to you Folks

Minoo

 

Note: Keep an Eye on alternatives Small Companies, Base Metals, VIX & the all mighty US Dollar they may bring out 'The Market Bear'

Edited by minoo

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What will Successful Bull BIAS Psyche make one Believe &/or Do?

Minoo, that is a very beautiful question. Thank you.

 

( Meanwhile, it’s still a BTFD world ... :):) ... )

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Dear Fellow Traders

 

Sorry I cannot reply to you all personally (no I do-not know much about trading bit coin, my teenage son does much more than I do)

 

But what amazes me is some of you are already calling this the Bottom of Correction

ES Opening Hour Low (2555.50) has not even past the first hour when I started to write this in between scaling out of my positions.

 

Kindly observe the market and not trade against it, Be patience, let the emotions (ie Volatility) drain out of the markets

 

I have COP myself out (Consciously Out Position)

ie Will manage my existing positions and book profits but not take new positions

 

This could be the completion of corrective action Or Just the start of several Corrective actions. Why try to Guess the Market action when its full of Panic & Emotions (ie High Volatility)

 

I have now booked most of my profits in VIX as fear is shot up to extreme levels (ie momentum to downside and increase in Volatility).

Time allowing look at some of the VIX option Prices & Implied Volatility note how quickly it shoots up too (But equally there could be days and weeks of stagnant or loss with VIX remaining complacent and down, of course if planned properly than one could call this time of accumulation (low implied volatility in VIX (LoL, it sounds funny)

 

Just imagine if you would have put 10% of your profits to VIX Options and as it fell with crowd complacency. At new Indices highs you could plan t o Average into a good position and also could have booked some profit & Hedge your other remaining Bullish positions with holding VIX

 

This could have allowed your Trading Self to buy into Crowds Complacency and also provided a Good Hedging Mechanism which helps inner trading self to root and remain balance (The Best I know for my trading Psyche to keep my primitive mind predominant auto nature Occupied and Satisfied)

 

(Also as you hold VIX positions you are also not afraid of over night fall and if the market does not give you an chance to get out than at least you have VIX which would have rewarded you well and kept your inner traderself less fearful and balanced)

 

By the time Complacency turns Suddenly into Fear you would be in Good Position to Capitalise both financially and remain balance at market extremes. Or How else do you make most of other peoples complacency and pent up fear to Balance your one inner Trading Self.

 

For an Good Trader It needs to be an Zero Sum game not only financially but also Emotionally, If you do not plan to trade off your fear away than you will build up bigger position in it than you can handle, and more often than not, your primitive mind will kick in and take over all your discipline and written plans

 

(If you know any such way to Trade Psychologically (fear-off) and remain Balance than you are more than welcome to contribute and humbly please enlighten us)

 

Keep an Open Mind, so you allow your Psyche to remove any BIAS and trade other peoples fear and Bank your Financial and Mental Capital

 

The market as always and forever is a willing teacher but our complacent or fearful nature both hinders these opportunities to what is on offer to learn, and capitalise the very thing we all poses through our primitive mind but our leaned mind trading plan fails to plan and capitalise on.

 

“The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!”

 

You Simply have to plan for that irrational market in your trading plan, so as to not let your primitive mind take over your learned mind relegated trading plan

 

Trade Well Keeping The BIAS and Fear away

Minoo

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These are not auctions to fear. This is an excellent trading situation. As I posted Tuesday, I’m having a lot of fun taking short signals and triggers. It’s a welcome change from just intraday btfd - day in and day out. As long as ndx’s are moving... I don’t really care which way they go. What's important now (WIN) is to take every signal - ugly, plain or pretty - at optimal size...

 

oddly in both Tue and Wed’s sessions I still got a few more long triggers than short triggers, but the shorts still took in significantly more money than the longs - because the shorts got more ‘travel and as discussed above a few weeks ago, the sizing for shorts has been incrementing and sizing for longs has been decrementing.

 

It’s entirely ok for “some of you” to be “already calling this the Bottom of Correction”. Sovereign /central ‘bank’ funds are ‘tremendous, just tremendous’ factors in markets today and as long as there is not a genuine bond /debt /collateral PANIC, they can and most likely will intervene to prevent ndx ‘crashes’

 

Also, a ‘buddy rally’ would not be a surprise. Certain crowds sometimes rally an instrument to give themselves a chance to ‘double up’/ add on the short and / or give ‘affiliated’ money a chance to get in on the selloff (and vice versa...).

 

... Plus, as I have posted on TL several times over the years, I’m still calling all stock index action since 2000 a bear market masked by fiat money creation / inflation. Ie - Imo that means we’re actually ‘charting a present bear’. Dollar ‘adjusting’ according to my algorithms has ndx charts from 2000 to now in a long barely down sloping , ‘flat’-like correction ( that still has some potential to become an expanding complex “polywave ”correction via major selloff(s) ) ...

and, ’interpolating’ in that light, the DJIA currently needs to breach ~ 31,300 for me to call stock indexes a bull market... unconventional perspective :) .

 

zdo

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(CNBC) – “The level of enthusiasm about the market … has been building. We’re seeing more individuals come in,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

 

Sonders said she’s anecdotally seeing signs of more individuals putting money to work in the stock market in the last several months, after years of skepticism and concerns about “every variety of doom and gloom.”

 

She says she is getting fewer investors asking about bubbles or about what’s the next shoe to drop.

 

“I think it’s finally starting to suck people in … emotionally, and actually it’s hard to judge why now all of a sudden, but maybe it’s because of how persistent the move has been with so little volatility on the upside and on the downside,” Sonders said. “This year has been different. This kind of year pulls people in.”

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-dumbest-dumb-money-finally-gets-suckered-in-john-rubino.html

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Historical VIX corelation to S&P 500

Normally VIX trends in opposite direction to market rise, unless more funds have started to hedge their Long Portfolio by buying SPX put options

 

What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean

 

Is it due to the political tension and US Gov Closure risk or are the Markets trying to tell us something.

 

Watch the Below Video

 

What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean? ? Yori Trade World

 

The Question in my mind / journal has changed from

Q) Got Some Vix ? ----- > Q) Got Enough VIX

 

Personal Note: As S&P established new highs my mind was used to buying Cheap VIX contracts (ie VXX Options) From Last Friday (12th Pre-Bank-Holiday Week Closure) VIX started to creap up. My mind did not get an bargain as it was used to and I did not buy enough of VIX contracts this time. But had to buy some at the Friday Close with news of Gov Closure, obviously keeping VIX higher even though Markets establish new Highs

 

Take Note of this rear occurance of VIX & S&P +ve corelation fellow Traders

 

Trade Consciously of Euphoria & Risk as Mean-Reversion Event falls behind in time and becomes more prominent.

 

Rising VIX (as Fear): Could be interpretated for the Given Market Conditions as:

Gauge of Fear to the DownSide Reversion has Increase to the Prevalent Fear of Missing Out,

 

Q) Will the Traditional Safe Heaven, US Dollar make Base or Rise Suddenly. If so Base Metals may take the full brunt of Dollar Rise.

 

Q) Would we witness Bonds Bottom soon or Choose to be wiser again with Hindsight ?

 

Trade Well

Minoo

Edited by minoo

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Worth Reading the Article by Tom McClellan

 

VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Future

 

VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Futures - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

 

If a trader can anticipate & journal-to differentiate his trading emotions induced by market movement (ie bear / bull trap, head fake, stop loss run, negative cycle / price correction etc) from the resultant emotions induced by crowd reaction / volatility than perhaps he would better understand how to insure his fear or hedge his trading plan from his primitive mind trading it.

 

VIX is something every, day-trader should study & journal relative to complacency, fear of missing out & eventually fear itself.

 

Volatility is directly related to extreme emotions & such could be understood better by Studying & Hedging with VIX.

 

Secure your mental capital, so a trader can HAND-SUM-LY capitalise from Fear

 

Barter Well with This <Lanky Lady.>

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/4807-poem-lady-market.html#post51613

 

Enjoy Minoo

Edited by minoo

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I’ve been running a (bad / sample too small) poll by asking cohorts if they think this correction is part of a classic ‘pump and dump’ campaign.

Surprise Surprise Surprise... currently 90% say definitively NOT.

I’d bet if you could poll all TL’s members - past and present - the results would be similar...

 

ps and btw - they are wrong :rofl:

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re charting the past bears - Young traders are in kind of a mess these days.  They came up in an era of rigged markets (ie rigged even more than usual).  They've gotten limited experience in trading authentic selloffs / in shorting or in a diversity of bottoms to learn from.  

...and... using nominal historical charts to study past bears can present some serious hazards to certain perceptual ‘maps’. jmo

 

 

...

Are we charting a present bear yet?  I am.  It’s all still a bear to me. 

...but ... on a (nominal) chart how 2550 $SPX 'acts' is my inflection point btwn immediate deeper ‘bear’ past recent lows or a rally to 3000 $SPX or beyond.

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I think we may have Volatility this month to overcome or succumb to the Weekly 78.6% Fib Retracement

VIX may rise so getting more into the day trading mode, (if VIX open interest starts to rise)

Watch chaikin money flow into VIX

 

4MarchES&VIX.png

Edited by minoo

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Watch the Weekly VIX

Are we at an Area which could make another Interim Pivot ???

Is the Syndrome of Sell in May &  Go Away...  .  .. , to arrive Early this Year

Or Pending the Trade Deal with China ??

With Brexit the British had to repeatedly walk away from their own bargained Deal

Would the US Administration do the same or Up coming Election will make them Savvy

Just Being Cautious and Locking in some Profit (ES 2869 ish) as the Market Gives but will also start Average into VIX

Play it Safe, Minoo

VixWeekly-1April2019.png

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We all welcome the Santa Claus Rally with new Historical Highs

I think it had an distinct Chinese theme to it rather than based on future Growth or Economy

Will we have one more quarter of Good Earnings and than followed with fed & political meandering

(Perhaps I am getting old and do not have any more appetite for Risk On trades, ES around 3200)

Is it time to be cautious about US Indices, Going into the next year (I am thinking of Hedging or Cashing Portfolio which is currency based / dependent)

Looking for BitCoin to Bottom (Risk On) and Gold to Out Perform (Investment Physical and LEAPS)

VIX will become more of my instrument to swing trade as market tops out

Initially this should provide time and hedge to the portfolio and pension, and opportunity to average into BTC and GC

Seasonals Greetings to you All

Enjoy Minoo

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A History Of Consecutive -3% Days (Decline)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4327321-history-of-consecutiveminus-3-days

by Ploutos CFA

Summary

The global spread of the coronavirus has pushed the S&P 500 down 3% on consecutive days.

That is a fairly rare occurrence for markets with only 15 occurrences of consecutive down days of that magnitude since the Great Depression.

When these types of consecutive down days occur outside of economic recessions, markets have tended to recover and move sharply higher over the next year.

With the epidemic slipping towards a pandemic, the extent of economic damage remains unknown.  Markets are selling rich valuations and pricing in negative outcomes.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

The Difference this time is, the decline has occured after consecutively achieving market highs

With the last Bear Market in 2008

The sharp pullback which the News is crediting it to the Virus

How do a Technician Interpret on the Chart without the news  factor ?

I would earmarked it as an first important indication (in built fear) occuring in the US President Election Year

It would be better to review Gold & USD Chart for Safety and Fear

What remains to be observed approaching US Presidential Election is; 

If the Gold Price Continue to Hold & remain Higher and Will USD perform Strong

With Historical Low Interest Rates Gold is Good Asset to offset Risk.

Interesting thing to observe will be Cryptos and related Stocks & Technology

I think some exposure to Crypto is Quintessential (Around the Sell in May and Go Away Season of Correction)

Awaiting some opportunity ...........   .........   .......  ......

Play if Safe with Stop Loss but also some Protection in Place or Fear will provoke your primitive Mind and Take over.  

Enjoy Minoo

 

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“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” – Shelby Cullom Davis

Bear market defined as 20% or more decline

With the sharp downward price action on the S&P 500 on March 9, we are at the door step of a bear market

Fear The Bear 

https://www.bmogam.com/us-en/advisors/news-and-insights/fear-the-bear/

By BMO Global Asset Management

 

 

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Ok here is my Easter Egg Chart for you All

(Thanks to those who have repeatedly requested and prompted me to post my charts)

I trust those who get the picture, will treasure it Forever

Hint:

Follow the Money or in this case rather, The Flow

I have marked the vertical Red on ES and Green on VIX charts with dates

View the Chaikin Sub Chart carefully to get the Picture

I will leave it to your interpretation 

Keep it Simple, so when it matters you get it

Traders, Positive Money Flow in VIX is not something to be complacent about; But only to act Mechanically if not Objectively

The Gear has change and so should your Mentality. (Refer to my above 18th Dec Christmas Comments)

Play it Safe and Secure, Amen.

Enjoy Minoo

2020-Chaikin-ES-VIX.png

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Posted (edited)

Chart Updated and Good Article on Forbes

3 Past Bear Markets To Study
by Tom Aspray

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2020/03/21/3-past-bear-markets-to-study/#72d5d7f0737d

If you look at the S&P targets than do not forget to check the opposite targets on VIX.

Remember nothing goes up or down in a Straight Line

Neither the Mouse to it Cheese nor Price to its Target.

Direction most often continues than not, But this day trading Volatility may shake you off, whether you are the Wall Street Bear or Bull.

Equally any BIAS could be dangerous to swing or day trade with, keep it simple & nimble. Locking in some profit or will get some protection (Puts or VIX)

COP (Consciously Out Position) could be considered for next week.

S&P RTH Open 8th May, 2908.00

Enjoy and Play it Safe

8MayChartUpdate(Jobs).png

ES-Expanded-8May20.png

Edited by minoo

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Chart Update of the Small Companies Index, Which is not much paid attention to in this Tech and Pharma created Bounce Back and Hoping for Beyond

Note the Divergence between Daily Prices and MACD in sub chart

In current environment Investors may feel fear of missing out; Hesitation and Expectation both comes into play. Refer to PDF attached

It will make you think and more often than not make you commit or omit untimely. As soon as any BIAS or false expectation builds up its time to lock in profits or exit or COP (Consciously Out Position) yourself out. 

Here is something I wrote some time back 4 Nov 2008 (You may have stood in the que to vote, Obama ah!)

Enjoy Minoo

Russell2K-Target.png

Psychological_Factors_in_Shaping_Investor_Expectat.pdf

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Quick Chart Update as ES Target gets Hit as shown above in previous threads but ViX still taking time ...

Perhaps there is fair amount of early Precautionary-Puts due to current unrest situation in US

Respectfully Flat on Swing Position around close on Wednesday & Preparing for the next Anticipated Volatility

Note Much Gaps needs to be filled below on ES, but still keeping an Open Mind about the direction  

Play it Safe and Nimble, & Keep BIAS away

Enjoy

4June-ES&Vix-Update.png

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