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minoo

Charting the Past Bears

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Is the Bear waking up or the Bull trying to Push through make new Highs and Top

 

Very concern with the Unusual Bank Holiday Activity in the Futures Market today

 

Seeing such Volatility in futures market (ie Indices down, VIX & Gold up, Perhaps Bonds and USD may follow up soon) on Bank Holiday is much concerning

 

There are several Gaps on All Indices to be filled at lower side and also at Historical Level much lower down.

 

So many of the Cycles have failed on the correction side and Continuously Surprised us on the Upside.

 

Is this October 2017 time to prepare and Go Hunting South with The Bears Seasonally (Short Term) or Cyclically (Mid to Long Term Correction to Bearish Cycle) ?

 

Anticipated correction by so many pundits so far has delayed the correction; So are we at The Very Beginning of an Historical Moment Now (Oct 2017 Top & Crash)?

 

Many have said the Correction / Crash may come, more due to Geo-Political reason rather than economical. But also true is a substantial Correction is overdue Technically / Cyclically speaking

 

Is it worth taking any more Risk in the Market Upside any more ?

 

Normally most are complacently (Low Historical VIX) indulgent and few hesitantly concerns become early Bears at such anticipated market Tops.

 

More often than not The Market has continue and most of us cannot time either the Tops or Bottoms, So is it worth traders being nimble and caution and also have reached time to establish Hedge to our Portfolio.

 

Keeping an Open Mind but noting as well The Very Unusual Market movement this October Bank Holiday. (The Scent of The Bear ???)

 

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016-2/

 

Any Comments Welcome

 

Regards Minoo

Edited by minoo

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Question Ask Was

 

How do we Protect from the Anticipated Downside, which has failed to play out ?

 

Attempted Answer:

 

I can only chime here what I have started to do increasingly in the market

 

-Locked in Profit to Get out

(I am out over 80% of my Portfolio Positions which cannot be executed during over night hours, also have Tighten my Stops on the remaining Positions)

 

-To make most out of a sudden drop or to strategically Hook the Top in

(As market establishes new highs percentage of locked in gains is allocated; To go long in VIX and USD positions using Options and Futures)

 

-Simple Risk Off Trade: Go Long Bonds & Notes ETFs (TLT, IEI, IEF etc)

 

For me its not just worth risking these Abnormal Gains and still wait for market Top (or trying to time the top that's very Risky thing to do & remain long with anticipated Bears Fear)

 

Simply Book or at least Lock in Profit and if you must than establish some sensible Hedges (ie Go long on VIX & USD)

 

I am avoiding Gold Holdings as well as interest rates are far too low.

 

One should plan to protect Financial-Capital as well as your 'Mental Capital'.

(Think if the Bear strikes how good a position you are going to be in & what percentage gain is remaining to be on upside and How much to the Downside & most importantly will you have time to get out ???)

 

As financially most have achieved its time to collect & protect; and equally to take care of Mental Part (I want to book profits now and not be sorry later, but rather make something if the Bear Strikes Suddenly)

 

ie Balancing Both of Greed and Fear factor Within one traderself.

 

Thanks for asking.

 

All The Best

Minoo

 

Greed = Is also defined as 'Fear of Missing Out'

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(KD and co.)

 

Thankfully I have not 'feared missing out'. What happened with me - I recently noticed my own uptick in fearlessness when going long. That is precisely what prompted me to start upsizing shorts and downsizing longs... just sayin.

 

Changes are to size only... no changes made in ‘biases’ and system signals and triggers (yet)

 

Thanks for your posts Minoo

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(for purposes of levity... in a forum where rationality runs rampant) and

Charting the Past Bears

 

anyone remember the Oct 13 1989 'crash'?

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These new Articles are in line with the thread theme 'Charting The Past Bear'

 

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14342432/1/black-monday-flash-crash-emotional-investing.html

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/a-crazy-stock-market-is-punishing-sellers

 

1987 Versus 2017: Will History Repeat Or Just Echo? | Zero Hedge

 

Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead, Asks "Should We Be Worried?" | Zero Hedge

 

Option Expiry Week is normally Positive But remember its October-OE week without the 'Sell in May' effect

Plus we are here with Fear of impending Market Correction (ie Market/Crowd will latch on any Bad news if its to Correct or Crash)

 

Last remaining Good Big News on Tax Cuts are being Priced in (ie Market Consolidating and may initially Spike-Up)

 

But What after Such Event ? Will it give you the chance to Lock in profit;

And Will your Big Bullish Self allow to Book some Profits

 

What will Successful Bull BIAS Psyche make one Believe &/or Do?

 

Time to at least have a Plan (to live / die by)

 

Trend and Trade The Bull Carefully

 

Much Good Trading Sense to you Folks

Minoo

 

Note: Keep an Eye on alternatives Small Companies, Base Metals, VIX & the all mighty US Dollar they may bring out 'The Market Bear'

Edited by minoo

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What will Successful Bull BIAS Psyche make one Believe &/or Do?

Minoo, that is a very beautiful question. Thank you.

 

( Meanwhile, it’s still a BTFD world ... :):) ... )

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Dear Fellow Traders

 

Sorry I cannot reply to you all personally (no I do-not know much about trading bit coin, my teenage son does much more than I do)

 

But what amazes me is some of you are already calling this the Bottom of Correction

ES Opening Hour Low (2555.50) has not even past the first hour when I started to write this in between scaling out of my positions.

 

Kindly observe the market and not trade against it, Be patience, let the emotions (ie Volatility) drain out of the markets

 

I have COP myself out (Consciously Out Position)

ie Will manage my existing positions and book profits but not take new positions

 

This could be the completion of corrective action Or Just the start of several Corrective actions. Why try to Guess the Market action when its full of Panic & Emotions (ie High Volatility)

 

I have now booked most of my profits in VIX as fear is shot up to extreme levels (ie momentum to downside and increase in Volatility).

Time allowing look at some of the VIX option Prices & Implied Volatility note how quickly it shoots up too (But equally there could be days and weeks of stagnant or loss with VIX remaining complacent and down, of course if planned properly than one could call this time of accumulation (low implied volatility in VIX (LoL, it sounds funny)

 

Just imagine if you would have put 10% of your profits to VIX Options and as it fell with crowd complacency. At new Indices highs you could plan t o Average into a good position and also could have booked some profit & Hedge your other remaining Bullish positions with holding VIX

 

This could have allowed your Trading Self to buy into Crowds Complacency and also provided a Good Hedging Mechanism which helps inner trading self to root and remain balance (The Best I know for my trading Psyche to keep my primitive mind predominant auto nature Occupied and Satisfied)

 

(Also as you hold VIX positions you are also not afraid of over night fall and if the market does not give you an chance to get out than at least you have VIX which would have rewarded you well and kept your inner traderself less fearful and balanced)

 

By the time Complacency turns Suddenly into Fear you would be in Good Position to Capitalise both financially and remain balance at market extremes. Or How else do you make most of other peoples complacency and pent up fear to Balance your one inner Trading Self.

 

For an Good Trader It needs to be an Zero Sum game not only financially but also Emotionally, If you do not plan to trade off your fear away than you will build up bigger position in it than you can handle, and more often than not, your primitive mind will kick in and take over all your discipline and written plans

 

(If you know any such way to Trade Psychologically (fear-off) and remain Balance than you are more than welcome to contribute and humbly please enlighten us)

 

Keep an Open Mind, so you allow your Psyche to remove any BIAS and trade other peoples fear and Bank your Financial and Mental Capital

 

The market as always and forever is a willing teacher but our complacent or fearful nature both hinders these opportunities to what is on offer to learn, and capitalise the very thing we all poses through our primitive mind but our leaned mind trading plan fails to plan and capitalise on.

 

“The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!”

 

You Simply have to plan for that irrational market in your trading plan, so as to not let your primitive mind take over your learned mind relegated trading plan

 

Trade Well Keeping The BIAS and Fear away

Minoo

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These are not auctions to fear. This is an excellent trading situation. As I posted Tuesday, I’m having a lot of fun taking short signals and triggers. It’s a welcome change from just intraday btfd - day in and day out. As long as ndx’s are moving... I don’t really care which way they go. What's important now (WIN) is to take every signal - ugly, plain or pretty - at optimal size...

 

oddly in both Tue and Wed’s sessions I still got a few more long triggers than short triggers, but the shorts still took in significantly more money than the longs - because the shorts got more ‘travel and as discussed above a few weeks ago, the sizing for shorts has been incrementing and sizing for longs has been decrementing.

 

It’s entirely ok for “some of you” to be “already calling this the Bottom of Correction”. Sovereign /central ‘bank’ funds are ‘tremendous, just tremendous’ factors in markets today and as long as there is not a genuine bond /debt /collateral PANIC, they can and most likely will intervene to prevent ndx ‘crashes’

 

Also, a ‘buddy rally’ would not be a surprise. Certain crowds sometimes rally an instrument to give themselves a chance to ‘double up’/ add on the short and / or give ‘affiliated’ money a chance to get in on the selloff (and vice versa...).

 

... Plus, as I have posted on TL several times over the years, I’m still calling all stock index action since 2000 a bear market masked by fiat money creation / inflation. Ie - Imo that means we’re actually ‘charting a present bear’. Dollar ‘adjusting’ according to my algorithms has ndx charts from 2000 to now in a long barely down sloping , ‘flat’-like correction ( that still has some potential to become an expanding complex “polywave ”correction via major selloff(s) ) ...

and, ’interpolating’ in that light, the DJIA currently needs to breach ~ 31,300 for me to call stock indexes a bull market... unconventional perspective :) .

 

zdo

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(CNBC) – “The level of enthusiasm about the market … has been building. We’re seeing more individuals come in,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

 

Sonders said she’s anecdotally seeing signs of more individuals putting money to work in the stock market in the last several months, after years of skepticism and concerns about “every variety of doom and gloom.”

 

She says she is getting fewer investors asking about bubbles or about what’s the next shoe to drop.

 

“I think it’s finally starting to suck people in … emotionally, and actually it’s hard to judge why now all of a sudden, but maybe it’s because of how persistent the move has been with so little volatility on the upside and on the downside,” Sonders said. “This year has been different. This kind of year pulls people in.”

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-dumbest-dumb-money-finally-gets-suckered-in-john-rubino.html

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Historical VIX corelation to S&P 500

Normally VIX trends in opposite direction to market rise, unless more funds have started to hedge their Long Portfolio by buying SPX put options

 

What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean

 

Is it due to the political tension and US Gov Closure risk or are the Markets trying to tell us something.

 

Watch the Below Video

 

What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean? ? Yori Trade World

 

The Question in my mind / journal has changed from

Q) Got Some Vix ? ----- > Q) Got Enough VIX

 

Personal Note: As S&P established new highs my mind was used to buying Cheap VIX contracts (ie VXX Options) From Last Friday (12th Pre-Bank-Holiday Week Closure) VIX started to creap up. My mind did not get an bargain as it was used to and I did not buy enough of VIX contracts this time. But had to buy some at the Friday Close with news of Gov Closure, obviously keeping VIX higher even though Markets establish new Highs

 

Take Note of this rear occurance of VIX & S&P +ve corelation fellow Traders

 

Trade Consciously of Euphoria & Risk as Mean-Reversion Event falls behind in time and becomes more prominent.

 

Rising VIX (as Fear): Could be interpretated for the Given Market Conditions as:

Gauge of Fear to the DownSide Reversion has Increase to the Prevalent Fear of Missing Out,

 

Q) Will the Traditional Safe Heaven, US Dollar make Base or Rise Suddenly. If so Base Metals may take the full brunt of Dollar Rise.

 

Q) Would we witness Bonds Bottom soon or Choose to be wiser again with Hindsight ?

 

Trade Well

Minoo

Edited by minoo

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Worth Reading the Article by Tom McClellan

 

VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Future

 

VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Futures - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

 

If a trader can anticipate & journal-to differentiate his trading emotions induced by market movement (ie bear / bull trap, head fake, stop loss run, negative cycle / price correction etc) from the resultant emotions induced by crowd reaction / volatility than perhaps he would better understand how to insure his fear or hedge his trading plan from his primitive mind trading it.

 

VIX is something every, day-trader should study & journal relative to complacency, fear of missing out & eventually fear itself.

 

Volatility is directly related to extreme emotions & such could be understood better by Studying & Hedging with VIX.

 

Secure your mental capital, so a trader can HAND-SUM-LY capitalise from Fear

 

Barter Well with This <Lanky Lady.>

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/4807-poem-lady-market.html#post51613

 

Enjoy Minoo

Edited by minoo

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I’ve been running a (bad / sample too small) poll by asking cohorts if they think this correction is part of a classic ‘pump and dump’ campaign.

Surprise Surprise Surprise... currently 90% say definitively NOT.

I’d bet if you could poll all TL’s members - past and present - the results would be similar...

 

ps and btw - they are wrong :rofl:

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re charting the past bears - Young traders are in kind of a mess these days.  They came up in an era of rigged markets (ie rigged even more than usual).  They've gotten limited experience in trading authentic selloffs / in shorting or in a diversity of bottoms to learn from.  

...and... using nominal historical charts to study past bears can present some serious hazards to certain perceptual ‘maps’. jmo

 

 

...

Are we charting a present bear yet?  I am.  It’s all still a bear to me. 

...but ... on a (nominal) chart how 2550 $SPX 'acts' is my inflection point btwn immediate deeper ‘bear’ past recent lows or a rally to 3000 $SPX or beyond.

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I think we may have Volatility this month to overcome or succumb to the Weekly 78.6% Fib Retracement

VIX may rise so getting more into the day trading mode, (if VIX open interest starts to rise)

Watch chaikin money flow into VIX

 

4MarchES&VIX.png

Edited by minoo

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Watch the Weekly VIX

Are we at an Area which could make another Interim Pivot ???

Is the Syndrome of Sell in May &  Go Away...  .  .. , to arrive Early this Year

Or Pending the Trade Deal with China ??

With Brexit the British had to repeatedly walk away from their own bargained Deal

Would the US Administration do the same or Up coming Election will make them Savvy

Just Being Cautious and Locking in some Profit (ES 2869 ish) as the Market Gives but will also start Average into VIX

Play it Safe, Minoo

VixWeekly-1April2019.png

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We all welcome the Santa Claus Rally with new Historical Highs

I think it had an distinct Chinese theme to it rather than based on future Growth or Economy

Will we have one more quarter of Good Earnings and than followed with fed & political meandering

(Perhaps I am getting old and do not have any more appetite for Risk On trades, ES around 3200)

Is it time to be cautious about US Indices, Going into the next year (I am thinking of Hedging or Cashing Portfolio which is currency based / dependent)

Looking for BitCoin to Bottom (Risk On) and Gold to Out Perform (Investment Physical and LEAPS)

VIX will become more of my instrument to swing trade as market tops out

Initially this should provide time and hedge to the portfolio and pension, and opportunity to average into BTC and GC

Seasonals Greetings to you All

Enjoy Minoo

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A History Of Consecutive -3% Days (Decline)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4327321-history-of-consecutiveminus-3-days

by Ploutos CFA

Summary

The global spread of the coronavirus has pushed the S&P 500 down 3% on consecutive days.

That is a fairly rare occurrence for markets with only 15 occurrences of consecutive down days of that magnitude since the Great Depression.

When these types of consecutive down days occur outside of economic recessions, markets have tended to recover and move sharply higher over the next year.

With the epidemic slipping towards a pandemic, the extent of economic damage remains unknown.  Markets are selling rich valuations and pricing in negative outcomes.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

The Difference this time is, the decline has occured after consecutively achieving market highs

With the last Bear Market in 2008

The sharp pullback which the News is crediting it to the Virus

How do a Technician Interpret on the Chart without the news  factor ?

I would earmarked it as an first important indication (in built fear) occuring in the US President Election Year

It would be better to review Gold & USD Chart for Safety and Fear

What remains to be observed approaching US Presidential Election is; 

If the Gold Price Continue to Hold & remain Higher and Will USD perform Strong

With Historical Low Interest Rates Gold is Good Asset to offset Risk.

Interesting thing to observe will be Cryptos and related Stocks & Technology

I think some exposure to Crypto is Quintessential (Around the Sell in May and Go Away Season of Correction)

Awaiting some opportunity ...........   .........   .......  ......

Play if Safe with Stop Loss but also some Protection in Place or Fear will provoke your primitive Mind and Take over.  

Enjoy Minoo

 

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“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” – Shelby Cullom Davis

Bear market defined as 20% or more decline

With the sharp downward price action on the S&P 500 on March 9, we are at the door step of a bear market

Fear The Bear 

https://www.bmogam.com/us-en/advisors/news-and-insights/fear-the-bear/

By BMO Global Asset Management

 

 

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The pair posted a low at 1.4079, though has so far remained above its Wednesday low at 1.4060. A Bloomberg report, citing sources with inside knowledge, said that China is moving forward with plans to buy oil for its emergency reserves. Beijing is reportedly aiming to build up a crude stockpile that would cover 90 days of net imports with the possibility of expanding this to 180 days. China is the world’s biggest oil importer and is taking advantage of the 60%-odd collapse in oil prices. USOIL prices posted a 6-day high at $22.55, but still remain down by just over 65% from the highs seen in early January. This level of price decline in Canada’s principal export, while it sustains, marks a significant deterioration in the Canadian economy’s terms of trade. Assuming that China’s buying spree won’t close this gap substantially, given the glut of crude flooding the market, and given that demand will remain weak for a historically protracted amount of time, CAD should remain apt to underperformance. In the medium term, USDCAD could retest its recent 17-year high at 1.4669.Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied, although both remained within their respective Wednesday ranges against the US Dollar.USDJPY and most yen crosses, in particular those involving a commodity currency, have gained concomitantly with the improvement in risk appetite, which saw the yen’s safe haven premium unwind some.GBP is again ranking among the currency outperformers today, gaining over 0.7% versus the Dollar and by over 0.8% against both the Euro and Yen on the day so far. Market narratives have been pointing to the impact of the Fed’s launching of a new “FIMA” facility (announced Tuesday) , which will start on April 6 and allow foreign central banks to obtain Dollars without selling Treasuries. This will run alongside the swap lines created with 14 central banks, and the two should ease strains in global dollar funding. This is seen as a particular positive for the Pound, given the UK’s recently proven vulnerability to global liquidity shortages, with its large financial sector and dependence on foreign investment inflows (equivalent to about 4% of GDP) to finance its large current account deficit.The Pound had underperformed even commodity currencies during the worst of the recent global liquidity crunch, which ran from about March 10th through to March 19th, before measures by the Fed and other central banks provided a mitigating impact. Sterling lost about 10% of its value in trade-weighted terms over this period, and tumbled by 12% versus the Dollar, hitting a 35-year low, and an 11-year low against the Euro. The worst now looks to be over for the Pound, especially with markets starting to bet that the UK will ask the EU for an extension of its post-Brexit transition membership of the Union’s customs union and single market. Neither the UK nor EU has the resources to conduct detailed trade negotiations under the prevailing circumstance of the coronavirus crisis. This is seen as Sterling positive as it will avoid the possibility of the UK leaving the transition period and shifting a big chunk of its trade onto less favourable WTO trade terms.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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