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Soultrader

[MP] Trading with Market Profile

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Due to the highly successful VSA thread, I would like to also start a thread dedicated entirely for Market Profile that covers definitions, market structures, mp concepts, trade locations, pattern recognition, and more.

 

Market profile is perhaps used by only a small percentage of traders with very little educational material available for free compared to other technical analysis methodologies. So let's get this thread started!

 

Recommended Readings

 

  1. Mind Over Markets: Power Trading with Market Generated Information by James F. Dalton
  2. Steidlmayer on Markets: Trading with Market Profile by Peter J. Steidlmayer
  3. Markets in Profile: Profiting from the Auction Process by James F. Dalton

 

Things To Keep In Mind

 

The concepts and terminalogy covered in this thread may require you to have a basic understanding of market profile. There is a free pdf file available from the CBOT which you can download here that brushes this topic but I highly recommend to read the 3 books listed above.

 

Important terms:

 

  • Initial Balance (first 60min range)
  • Value High or VAH
  • Value Low or VAL
  • POC, VPOC
  • One-time auction
  • Extremes/Rejection

 

Day Types: Profile Pattern Recognition

 

1. Nontrend Day:

 

A nontrend day occurs when there is no conviction by the longer term market participants. Day traders are the only ones providing liquidity with volume being light and range being small. Lack of confidece expressed by the longer term traders causes markets to be contained within the initial balance (first hour range) as an extension of price is less likely. Traders with a view longer then the day trader see no opportunity/advantage at these price levels.

 

Below are a few examples of a nontrend day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4614&stc=1&d=1198757841

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4615&stc=1&d=1198758619

 

2. Trend Days (2 types):

 

Trend Day

 

A trend day occurs when there is a high level of cofidence expressed throughout the day. Larger time frame market participants must be active in order for any trend day to occur. The market is in full one-time control. One-time control refers to an auction process of continously higher lows/higher highs or lower lows/lower highs. Each 30minute price action will auction higher/lower than the previous 30minute price action. This should continue until the close.

 

A strong trend day will usually leave the opening price near or at the high/low for the day. Below are a few examples of a trend day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4616&stc=1&d=1198759682

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4617&stc=1&d=1198759682

 

Double Distribution Trend Day

 

A double distribution trend day occurs when trading is light during the day followed by a sudden expansion of the initial balance by the longer term market participants later in the session. This one-time activity usually occurs into the afternoon session. This sudden change can be caused through fundamentals, news, economic reports, or just plain supply or demand.

 

Below are a few examples of a double distribution trend day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4618&stc=1&d=1198760300

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4619&stc=1&d=1198760300

 

3. Neutral Day

 

A neutral day occurs when longer term market participants express opposite views amongst each other. In other words, range extension may occur both above and below the initial balance with minimal price change for the day. Both sellers and buyers are present in a neutral day. Because the longer time frame participants do not agree on the same price they trade mainly with the locals or the middleman. In other words, sellers exist above value as they find price to be too expensive while buyers exist below value as they find price attractive. This profile resembles a complete market in balance as all short term and long term traders are involved.

 

Below are a few examples of a neutral day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4620&stc=1&d=1198760913

 

4. Normal Day

 

A normal day occurs when there is a small participation by the longer time frame traders expanding the initial balance by approximately half the range of the IB. So if the initial balance was 60 Dow pts, an extension would be 30pts above or below the initial balance.

 

Normal days have a tendency for active action at the opening hours followed by dull two-sided trading for the remainder of the day. A normal day may also have a wide initial balance indicating a strong conviction by the longer term time frame traders at the open followed by no follow through. The result will lead to price action contained within the initial balance.

 

Below are a few examples of a normal day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4621&stc=1&d=1198761445

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4622&stc=1&d=1198761551

 

5. Normal Variation Day

 

A normal variation day occurs when the other time frame market participant steps into early in the day to upset the initial balance. The range extension is usually double the initial balance. So if the initial balance was 40 Dow points, the range extension would be roughly 80 pts above or below the IB.

 

The extension causes value area to move higher/lower and is followed by two-sided price action for the rest of the day. Below are a few examples of a normal variation day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4623&stc=1&d=1198762063

 

To Be Continued...

5aa70e2eed264_NontrendDayMarketProfileChart.jpg.dfcb84dcdee4c998429bea24c93c05de.jpg

5aa70e2ef2243_TrendDayCandlestickChart.jpg.3aecf302aa0a498ef5c105a44f8102b4.jpg

5aa70e2f020aa_TrendDayMarketProfileChart.jpg.780f8b3a89d5e8f9d7f6e9eb9f4cf454.jpg

5aa70e2f05f2d_DoubleDistributionTrendDayCandlestickChart.jpg.0e3d56bdfa36f2709b90fa8116202609.jpg

5aa70e2f0ded3_DoubleDistributionTrendDayMarketProfileChart.jpg.a5ef466d5629a31840a6d32999dab845.jpg

5aa70e2f125b0_NeutralDayMarketProfileChart.jpg.0209339d408d80f5b95e42acbb0f9f1b.jpg

5aa70e2f167e4_NormalDayMaketProfileChart1.jpg.8736be60e7fc57c99f247759f3591cac.jpg

5aa70e2f1af6e_NormalDayMaketProfileChart2.jpg.bbd315237afbe341d37f78ff57814c34.jpg

5aa70e2f1e9fd_NormalVariationDayMarketProfileChart.jpg.2bdca71b613532af9e93453ca6011fe4.jpg

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Market Profile Concepts

 

Initial Balance - Initial balanace refers to the first 60minutes of trading. This time zone is possibly the most important time period as it offers clues to what sort of market one can expect.

 

A and B period in the chart below shows the initial balance. This term willl continue to come up in the following posts so make sure to learn this key terminology.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4628&stc=1&d=1198772270

 

Value Area - A market profile chart plots price as a bell curve. This bell curve is then divided into the first, second, and third standard deviation. The first deviation of this bell curve includes the 68% of the total volume, the second deviation includes 29% of the total volume, and the third deviation includes approximately 3% of total volume. See chart below:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4630&stc=1&d=1198773696

 

The first standard deviation or roughly 68%-70% of the area where most market action took place is the value area.

 

Point of Control or POC - Point of control is the price level in with the most TPO's. In other words, it is the level in which the markets spent the most time trading.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4631&stc=1&d=1198773880

 

TPO or Time Price Opportunity - TPO simply refers to each alphabet plotted. Each letter reprents a 30 min time period. One can count the number of TPO's above and below the POC to determine buying vs selling control for the day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4632&stc=1&d=1198774528

 

Extremes and Tails - Tails and extremes occur as price is swiftly rejected leaving a vertical line of single print TPO's. Tails are key levels in which price may have a tendency to act as support and resistance.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4633&stc=1&d=1198774910

 

Range Extension - Any extension beyond the initial balance.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4634&stc=1&d=1198775102

5aa70e2f8388b_InitialBalanceExplanationChart.jpg.3af026a96692eea160076f7deeff3ef2.jpg

5aa70e2f87724_Bellcurveexplanation.jpg.a8526eea859b80433ecd81219a8067e3.jpg

5aa70e2f8a30b_POCExplanation.jpg.88c46b6a738fd6e0ec355972dc9305a1.jpg

5aa70e2f8d685_TPOCountExplanation.jpg.3d28f3ff7bcd05c827efe1c1a51fd9f8.jpg

5aa70e2f91495_SinglePrintTailsExplanation.jpg.7a923e983e26d3f382ab66cb62e2a845.jpg

5aa70e2f94e97_RangeExtension.jpg.a91392b210d4d98ac38c1866dc414508.jpg

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Here is an example chart from 12/28/07 for further explanation.

 

First chart shows a regular 30min market profile with A period starting at 9:30am EST. Second chart is the same chart but broken down into TPO segments.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4635&stc=1&d=1198776015

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4636&stc=1&d=1198776015

 

One of the safest ways to trade with market profile is to wait until the Initial Balance has developed. The first 2 periods offers the biggest clues to what type of market we are likely to develop.

 

One of the things to watch for weakness on a price chart would be lower highs. With a market profile chart, the same concept can be seen when a time period is unable to break above the high of the previous 30minute session. Chart 2 illustrates this with the combination of market internals using the $TICK. Hence, in my opinion learning to use market internals as well as other technical tools is extremely powerful when trading with a market profile chart. This combination offers an edge.

 

Chart 3 shows how "C period" high also met resistance from the past 2 session lows and 12/22 high.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4637&stc=1&d=1198776443

 

Any short trades from C period high down to 13550 would of offered great opportunities. Why not play the break of the initial balance? I personally do not play breakouts of the IB. I prefer to wait for a retracement back towards a high of a earlier TPO segment. For example, in the same day if one missed a trading opportunity to the short side a second setups occurs at E and F period.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4638&stc=1&d=1198776863

 

Price can not reverse until one-timing auction is cut off. So best to trade with the trend until this happens.

5aa70e2f98639_Dec.282007Chart1.jpg.8df28fda6f72a7cb50e6bb71cae66155.jpg

5aa70e2f9cb23_Dec.282007Chart2.thumb.jpg.d9e6f6694e2665031e4e1b221d790657.jpg

5aa70e2fa17fb_Cperiodresistance.jpg.3f5e00fbafdc4ec1f5d16a874f4baafe.jpg

5aa70e2fa5196_EandFperiodDec.282007.jpg.66725e6aad3d6571458ed81103a25063.jpg

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One of the most important element with market profile is the value area. It is important to ask questions like:

 

  • Are we likely to trade above/below value today? If so, why? If not, why?
  • Can we expect price to remain in the previous days value area or range?
  • Which way is the market trying to auction? Is it doing a good job getting there?
  • Is the price break above/below the initial balance valid? Are we likely to see longer term participants step in to sustain this breakout move? Why or why not?
  • Are we seeing two sided market action?
  • Are we likely to see price pushed back into the initial balance?
  • Was the move above/below the initial balance a rejection pattern?
  • Which way are the markets likely to test first?
  • What does the opening price action tell me?

 

The point here is that the markets need good activity to move away from the previous day value and to trade away from the initial balance. If there is nothing that hints out any range extension, you can expect price to return to value. This is the most important concept of market profile in my opinion. Understanding this simple concept will help find good trade locations built around this concept.

 

For example on Dec. 27, 2007 former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan was assassinated. The futures market reacted negatively on this news causing price to decline premarket.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4639&stc=1&d=1198777699

 

My first reaction was that the Asian markets may gap down and open lower because of political unstability and chaos in the Asian region. This may impact the US markets as well due to the tight correlation. Next, I asked are we likely to create value placement lower compared to the past two sessions? I had a fundamental reason for lower value placement. Now I needed technical evidence to place any short trades.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4640&stc=1&d=1198777925

 

Thus I am holding a bias first but with confirmation through price action and trade location through market profile.

 

The Slip

 

The slip is what I like to call when price breaks out of the initial balance just to be rejected. In other words, the initial reaction to push price out of the initial balance or value area was wrong. Now we are likely to rotate in the opposite direction. The slip is so common that this is one of the reasons I do not trade momentum IB breakout plays.

 

To be a good market profile trader, I think one needs to have keen intuition on these slips. Are you seeing buying interest above the initial balance? Are you sensing diminishing demand and weakness? Fading these breakouts takes courage but is one of the most profitable setups one can take. If you short above value, you are simply responding to expensive prices relative to the previous day value. If you are buying below value, you are responding to cheap prices relative to the previous day value. This is responsive activity.

 

Initiative activity on the other hand is buying above the previous day value area or selling below the previous day value area. The reason you would be buying above value is because you sense a shift in market balance and higher value placement. Vice versa for selling below value.

 

The most important thing to remember is: Is the market you trade a responsive or initiative type market?

 

To be continued...

5aa70e2fa85ee_Marketreactiontonews.jpg.5f99913f313a2ae6fdcb8032caf82bf1.jpg

5aa70e2fabe7d_TechnicalConfirmation.jpg.3bb35a21e5c09d01026065a778998084.jpg

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I am very excited about this thread. I am about to enter into a MP "educational phase".

 

Would you adivse reading the books in the order you listed them above?

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I am very excited about this thread. I am about to enter into a MP "educational phase".

 

Would you adivse reading the books in the order you listed them above?

 

Yes, I would recommend to read in that order. Mind over Markets is the easiest to understand of the three. Steildmayer will help you add further insights.

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Great stuff James.

I totally agree with $TICK and MP as a good combo. One thing I've noticed is that if price is inside the value area, if it takes extreme tick readings to move price to the top/bottom of the value area than it may setup a nice $TICK fade trade. I love Dalton's idea that volume slows price down, which makes perfect sense if your looking at volume by price. Its almost as if the market runs out of firepower to push through the value area if it takes extreme $TICK readings in order to get to the top.

Something that might make for an interesting discussion is with using composite profiles across multiple days, how far back to go, how can we quantify when market conditions have changed enough that past auction information for the same price area is no longer relevant.

 

Also, I thought Ant said Dalton has a new book coming out next year. Anyone know anything about this?

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Wow. Very nice stuff Soul thank you.

 

No problem. Thanks to the VSA inputs as well. Ill get into identifying trade location with market profile then going into VSA for entry decision making.

 

thanks again soultrader!

 

yw, feel free to post any questions you have on mp. I dont follow it by the book but have my own way of interpreting it.

 

Also, I thought Ant said Dalton has a new book coming out next year. Anyone know anything about this?

 

His latest book was Markets in Profile which came out early this year I believe. I dont know of any other book to be released by Dalton yet.

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Here is a sample chart of Dec. 28, 2007. The chart shows the past few session market profiles with explanation.

 

The left hand side shows 4 day activity of markets auctioning below the current value area. This area of congestion is labeled Bracket 1. On Dec. 22, the markets gapped up higher and created higher value placement. This shift in market balance on the 5th day of trading is significant with A period leaving a single print tail. This level will be a key support level.

 

Also in Bracket 1, we have an area of confluence shown by the overlapping value low pivot line. Any break below the single print tails will cause price to enter into a previous value/congestion area. This confluence of the value low pivot will be a key support line.

 

Now shifting to the right hand side of the chart, 12/25 - 12/27 shows a 2 day overlapping value area. 12/28 was rejected in this value area to drop lower into the area created on 12/22. There was also fundamental reason behind this move due to the assassination of former Prime Minister Bhutto.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4646&stc=1&d=1198849113

 

Strategies with Market Profile & Other Technical Tools

 

We can now build a strategy based on what the markets is showing us. Questions to ask: Are we ready to move into higher value area created on 12/25 - 12/27? Or are we likely to remain inside of value created on both 12/22 and 12/28? Or are we likely to move into lower value placement inside of Bracket 1?

 

Answer: All of the above. (who knows?)

 

So using the 3 questions above, where can we establish trade points? First, if we assume price to break higher into 12/25 - 12/27 value area we can look for a break above A period from 12/28. In other words, we need to determine if buying exists above the 13600 mark. Are internals strong? Is volume increasing? If yes, we can then look for a long setup above this area. VSA techniques on a pullback to this area can be applied.

 

If we assume price to remain inside of value created on 12/22 and 12/28, we can look for short setups inside the resistance area of 13580 - 13600. Once again, you can wait for VSA setups at this level.

 

A reference point one can use to gauge strength vs weakness could be the overlapping POC on 12/22 and 12/28. Thus a downward bias may allow a trader to look at the 13500 level for any VSA or other setups. Also again at the 13400 level (below the 12/22 single print tails)

 

After idenftiying the levels you want to play at, one can then apply his own technical methodologies to execute his/her trades. This is how I prefer to combine market profile with other technical tools.

5aa70e2fe7dd5_Dec.292007MarketProfileChart1.thumb.jpg.89b6eaf4bf67c41257e6beb2009cdff3.jpg

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great thread, YM today after breaking down from yesterday's poc we tested the previous merge upper edge at 13370 and price was quickly rejected great place to buy . Ill post a chart if I can figurue out how.

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How To Play Single Print Areas

 

Single print price levels indicate swift price rejection due to the lack of time spent at that price level. These areas are good future support and resistance reference points. Chart shows Jan. 2 - Jan. 3 YM price action. Notice the beginning of the single print trail in "B" period.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4656&stc=1&d=1199452123

 

Janurary 3rd, 2008 Market Profile resemebles that of a neutral day. Both upside and downside IB range extension occurs on a neutral day in which longer term traders are expressing conflicting views amongst each other. Notice the IB range extension is equivalent both to the upside and downside with a close in the middle of the range.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4657&stc=1&d=1199452504

 

What is signficant about knowing the type of day?

 

Understanding what type or types of day the market is showing is important as one can design strategies around it. A neutral day indicates no victory for both bulls and bears. This offers fading type strategies for 1/04/08.

 

Steidlmayer puts "This indecisiveness of the buyers and sellers also creates the self-fulfilling prophecy of neutral days begetting neutral days."

 

Key levels I will watch is the previous day high and single print starting level shown in the first chart. Downside support will be previous day low and 1/02 VAL. The idea here is to fade any push out of value. However, this is just one strategy based on one scenario. If the markets prove you wrong, it is important to snap out of your bias/ideas and go with the language of the markets.

 

I am slightly bearish though due to the reaction of the Nikkei today breaking a very very key support level of 15,000.

5aa70e301af87_SinglePrintLevelsonMP.jpg.9d07b148c20a515722542c6f6feb7bef.jpg

5aa70e301f246_NeutralDayMP.jpg.545d9cb3856799603063dd194573c78e.jpg

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James, thanks for the thread. I have a ton of questions but I don't really know how to ask any of them. I know Darthtrader uses MarketDelta for his MP charts, but is there anything else that you would recommend? Does anything work with TradeStation?

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James, thanks for the thread. I have a ton of questions but I don't really know how to ask any of them. I know Darthtrader uses MarketDelta for his MP charts, but is there anything else that you would recommend? Does anything work with TradeStation?

 

Hard to say as the only MP tools for TS I used was a version written by Ant from the forums. Unfortunately this is no longer available. I use esignal for all my charts now with MP costing me $50 or additionally a month. I recommend it as it is fairly user-friendly and simple to use.

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I think we are pretty limited software wise with MP because anyone who puts it out has to pay the monthly CBOT fee. Its probly just too much of a headache to bother with.

With tradestation I still think the best option is to get ninjatrader which is free, feed TS data and then get the finalg version for $250 one time fee.

http://fin-alg.com/tpoandvolumechart.html

He just seems to be ignoring the cbot fee.

Marketdelta's MP chart is just a partnership with investors r/t, its exactly the same thing you get with investors r/t. I tried to find every option available and those + esignal are the only real options but your going to have to pay for this service one way or another.

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He just seems to be ignoring the cbot fee
I think you ignore the CBOT and or TS at your own peril. Just look at the recent episode with the new $55/month CBOT fees at TS. They cut you off and even with the new feed, live or delayed, it is still unreliable. https://www.tradestation.com/Discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=72109

The finalg looks like a good product, but it is still code protected and server side verified (if finalg's verification failed or is taken down by CBOT, you will have no function). Just a caveat emptor. If you have access to some of the published MP code and do some studies, you should have a reasonable fascimile of what other MP traders are seeing.

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Chart from January 4, 2008:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4669&stc=1&d=1199669702

 

Profile resembles that of a Normal Variation Day in which the range extension is double the initial balance. Notice how range extension from C period down to K period is almost the same as the range of A-B period.

 

Normal Variation Day indicates 30-40% market activity controlled by loger time frame market participants. "b" shaped profile hints of long liquidation. Key question will be "Is the short term selling temporarily over?"

 

IB Rejection vs Acceptance

 

Knowing the type of market you trade whether it be reponsive or initiative is important in developing strategies under the IB breakouts. The chart above shows multiple attempts by D-J period to trade back up into the initial balance. However, price is rejected creating lower value placement. Price acceptance below the initial balance is showing further weakness.

 

My bias will remain for price to trade in this newly developed value area so will look for short opportunities above value. Will post a few charts later as the markets open to show possible short setups.

5aa70e305d764_bshapedprofile.jpg.070beaeb4443f40b44120a863afee386.jpg

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What would the MP chart look like for the NQ? The NQ has sort of been in a box play for the last two months and just broke support, I'm curious if that would show a shift in value on the MP chart as well?

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What would the MP chart look like for the NQ? The NQ has sort of been in a box play for the last two months and just broke support, I'm curious if that would show a shift in value on the MP chart as well?

 

Do you have access to MP for NQ? I dont subscribe to CME at the moment so cant pull up a chart. I just subscribe to CBOT, NYSE, and the Japanese markets at the moment.

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No, I don't actually. I don't actually trade the NQ I was just curious how a MP structure would look after a range bound breakout like that. But judging from the look of the candle it looks like an open-drive day since it opened and pretty much tanked. I guess I could always put together an MP chart in excel?

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No, I don't actually. I don't actually trade the NQ I was just curious how a MP structure would look after a range bound breakout like that. But judging from the look of the candle it looks like an open-drive day since it opened and pretty much tanked. I guess I could always put together an MP chart in excel?

 

An open test drive will test one direction for supply or demand before reversing. Perhaps you can pull up a NQ 5min chart for me?

 

I used to plot MP in excel using a Reuters spreadsheet called PowerPluPro. But that was because I did not have access to a MP charting package. It was a nightmare. I guess you could do it if you can export data into a spreadsheet.

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This is the 24hour chart. Looks like a lot of pre-market movement.

 

Note: times are Mountain Standard, 2 hours behind NYC.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4670&stc=1&d=1199677149

 

I wouldnt consider that an open test drive. If you plot the initial balance, you will notice how C period (3rd 30min period) upset the IB. Half hour ranges are directional, in other words each 30min period is one-timing down. Typical of Trend Day profiles.

 

Trend days show that buyers/sellers have used up their energy. You can expect prices to stall a bit and rotate sideways until further directional movemet. Basically continuation strategies should be avoided the followind day.

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James, thanks for the thread. I have a ton of questions but I don't really know how to ask any of them. I know Darthtrader uses MarketDelta for his MP charts, but is there anything else that you would recommend? Does anything work with TradeStation?

 

Here's an MP file from the TS forum that doesn't plot the POC.

 

nic

TPO Pro5.0b.ELd

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    • Date : 3rd April 2020. Inured to the bad news.The markets are relatively inured to the bad news, as the weekly jobless claims have already given us the increasingly ugly news on the labor market. US equities are modestly weaker amid risk-off sentiment and an employment report that revealed a much larger than anticipated -701k plunge in March and a jump in the jobless rate to 8.7% from 7.0%.Meanwhile, the Dollar showed mixed reaction to the employment report. These numbers were worse than expected, though shouldn’t really be a surprise given the more timely surge in jobless claims figures seen the past two weeks. USDJPY initially fell to 108.25 before turning back up again at 108.60, while EURUSD fell to 1.0780 from 1.0800. USDCHF extended gains up to 0.9794, reversing nearly 76% of the decline seen since March 20.EURUSD concurrently carved out a 9-day low at 1.0774, making this the 5th consecutive day of lower lows while extending the correction from the 17-day high that was seen last Friday at 1.1148. The pair still remains above the low seen during the recent Dollar liquidity crunch, at 1.0637, before the Fed and other central banks stepped in to try and satiate the demand for cash dollars. Its overall outlook meanwhile, remains negative, with the asset extending well below all 3 daily SMAs and with its daily momentum indicators negatively configured. Hence the Dollar bid looks to hold.The March establishment and household employment surveys captured more of the early layoffs than the markets had assumed, with massive declines for payrolls and hours-worked, big drops for civilian employment, the labor force, and the participation rate, and the start of the upward march for the jobless rate. Wages were also firm, likely due to the concentration of job loss among lower-paid workers.The specifics: March nonfarm payrolls dropped -701k after February’s 275k increase (was 273k), which ended a 9.5 year run of employment gains. The employment in the goods-producing sector fell -54k from the 57k (was 61k) rise. Service sector jobs slumped -659k after rising 185k (was 167k) in February. Leisure/hospitality jobs plunged -459k from the prior 45k (was 51k) increase. Education/health care jobs were down -76k versus a 65k (was 54k) increase previously. Government jobs edged up 12k, with 18k added to the Federal payroll. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% (4.38%) from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% versus the prior 0.3% gain.The weakness captured in the mid-month March jobs report may prompt downward revisions in the Q1 GDP estimate, on the assumption that the Quarter may capture more of the economic plunge than previously assumed.Beyond the timing of Q1 versus Q2 growth figures, however, the surprise in today‘s report is more the degree to which the surveys captured late-March events than the magnitude of declines, since the bulk of the jobs loss will still be captured in the surveys for April.Since the Fed is already in maximum easing mode, it is unlikely that reports like today‘s will alter the monetary policy path.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Since Yesterday 02 April 2020 CorsaForex Binary Options Broker is out from business We recommend you to trade with Binary. com (Online since 1999) with Binary Options 20$ No Deposit Bonus https://binaryoptionsfree.eu/binary-com-review-great-binary-options-customers-support/
    • re: stocks.  Imo,we have a long ways to go down before we get to ‘value’ .  “Even at the March 23rd low...the Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio was at 101.38 percent, the 73rd percentile”   No place to be shopping for 'value' Yet, with all the fake money flooding in, the stock mkt could still soar.  But - up is not really up.  The long ‘bull of the last dacade + was actually ‘bull’sht.  Bullsht = steady injections of more fiat, taking on cash flow dependent corporate debt to finance ‘supply reducing’ buybacks,  malinvestments galore, capital DESTRUCTION - all clouded by a steady stream of FALSE msm narratives and fake numbers - from top numbers (ie GDP, etc.) all the way down to individual corp reports and reporting. ... ie Any ‘bull’ action now is in the  category of obese elephant bull sht... And as I have been posting for years, we can’t use dollars as a measure anymore.  ie  Up is not really up https://mises.org/wire/what-if-fed-did-nothing and using dollars as a measure is getting worse and worse.  ‘money’ not ‘working’ anymore. .. https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/31/what-is-the-feds-new-fima-the-potential-for-a-shadow-shadow-run-is-very-real/ https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/30/no-dollars-and-no-sense-eighty-argentinas/ ... ” Another day, another trillion dollars.”   re:  “all clouded by a steady stream of FALSE narratives. “  Yes, sweetheart the same thing has been happening in the covidity lockdown ... a steady stream of FALSE narratives  https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/peoples-skepticism-about-covid-19-is-the-fault-of-the-lying-mass-media-91216ad7fcf3  ... I just chuckle now anytime I hear any US press comment on/ criticise Russia or Chinese ‘disinformation’ .  Imo, China’s ‘Police State’ is currently only a tiny click or two worse than our ‘Pharm State’.   Re:  trading.  It’s been a wild wonderful wide range last six + weeks  to trade.  I have been preparing for it a long time and still didn’t capture as much as possible... for one thing, didn't increase/balance sizing for  those outlier bounces as robustly as I should have, etc ... but still it’s been amazing.  First signs starting to show up that ‘volatility’ is slowing down ... will deal with that by up sizing all positions appropriately. I’m no longer ‘trading’ fx.  I’m now speculating in fx.  ... gradually scaling into a pretty good sized dollar short...  do you make a distinction btwn ‘trading’ and ‘speculating’?   btw atlas shrugged about a “secret coin”.... I’m just sayin’    later... maybe
    • Date : 2nd April 2020. FX Action – 2nd April 2020.A 10%-plus rebound in crude prices catalyzed gains in oil-correlating currencies, including the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian krona, and other commodity currencies, while helping give stock markets a lift after a sputtering session in Asia. The wake of ugly 6.6 mln surge in US jobless claims, which was about double the consensus forecast, weighed on global markets. US equities reversed lower as risk appetite eroded again, taking back earlier gains, while Aussie for example has more than given up intraday gains, with AUDUSD presently pushing on lows at 0.6019, down just over a big figure from the intraday high that was seen during the Sydney session.The massive gain in initial claims, which followed a similarly hefty rise the previous week, was well anticipated but provided a timely reminder of what is to come.USDCAD has dropped by over 0.6%, driven by a bid for the Canadian Dollar amid a 10%-plus oil price surge. The pair posted a low at 1.4079, though has so far remained above its Wednesday low at 1.4060. A Bloomberg report, citing sources with inside knowledge, said that China is moving forward with plans to buy oil for its emergency reserves. Beijing is reportedly aiming to build up a crude stockpile that would cover 90 days of net imports with the possibility of expanding this to 180 days. China is the world’s biggest oil importer and is taking advantage of the 60%-odd collapse in oil prices. USOIL prices posted a 6-day high at $22.55, but still remain down by just over 65% from the highs seen in early January. This level of price decline in Canada’s principal export, while it sustains, marks a significant deterioration in the Canadian economy’s terms of trade. Assuming that China’s buying spree won’t close this gap substantially, given the glut of crude flooding the market, and given that demand will remain weak for a historically protracted amount of time, CAD should remain apt to underperformance. In the medium term, USDCAD could retest its recent 17-year high at 1.4669.Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied, although both remained within their respective Wednesday ranges against the US Dollar.USDJPY and most yen crosses, in particular those involving a commodity currency, have gained concomitantly with the improvement in risk appetite, which saw the yen’s safe haven premium unwind some.GBP is again ranking among the currency outperformers today, gaining over 0.7% versus the Dollar and by over 0.8% against both the Euro and Yen on the day so far. Market narratives have been pointing to the impact of the Fed’s launching of a new “FIMA” facility (announced Tuesday) , which will start on April 6 and allow foreign central banks to obtain Dollars without selling Treasuries. This will run alongside the swap lines created with 14 central banks, and the two should ease strains in global dollar funding. This is seen as a particular positive for the Pound, given the UK’s recently proven vulnerability to global liquidity shortages, with its large financial sector and dependence on foreign investment inflows (equivalent to about 4% of GDP) to finance its large current account deficit.The Pound had underperformed even commodity currencies during the worst of the recent global liquidity crunch, which ran from about March 10th through to March 19th, before measures by the Fed and other central banks provided a mitigating impact. Sterling lost about 10% of its value in trade-weighted terms over this period, and tumbled by 12% versus the Dollar, hitting a 35-year low, and an 11-year low against the Euro. The worst now looks to be over for the Pound, especially with markets starting to bet that the UK will ask the EU for an extension of its post-Brexit transition membership of the Union’s customs union and single market. Neither the UK nor EU has the resources to conduct detailed trade negotiations under the prevailing circumstance of the coronavirus crisis. This is seen as Sterling positive as it will avoid the possibility of the UK leaving the transition period and shifting a big chunk of its trade onto less favourable WTO trade terms.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • No one can specify that who can become successful in what time, it all depends on the skills you have applied and know;edge you have implied while trading.
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