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A Trading System

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Last week I was talking about believing in myself as my biggest problem and setback to my own success, this is still true and I am still looking for ways to improve,


I got the following comment: “Unless you have a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plan AND the discipline to follow it, faith won't get you very far” and this is true, faith in oneself is not enough to become a profitable trader, it is a profitable system first of all,


But what is the problem with consistently-profitable system?

There is no holy grail never mind what you will do, there is no system that will show 0 loses, you will need to face loses, one way or another, because we are working with statics and like casino trying to get the odds on our favor we must take into consideration the loses, a real problem is the streak of loses, in a system that have 60% win rate, in the long run you will, for sure, have a 10 loses streak nothing to do about it, pure probability, a very common way to know if a chain of 0/1 is randomly distribute or human made is to check the long consecutive 0 or 1 , humans can’t really make random chains ,


So you must test your system, if it is a technical system you can do it quite easily, if you are a discretionary trader it is bit harder but still you can find a way, but then comes the fact that market do change and an edge you had might be changing how can you tell that a streak of a losing trades come from normal losing distribution or from a real change in the market?


To get an answer to this question you must know your system, you need to know why your system work, this means you need to understand how market works, I for example trade trend, I look for an intraday trend, and try to exploit it, so I look for the reasons why the trend exist? What can affect the trend? Are we in a choppy market or trendy? How did the yesterday stocks worked? Could we find a trend? And by checking it on a daily base what happen today how stocks played out today I try to forecast the trend tomorrow ,


When it comes to the trading system, For me, I must understand it on an intellectual level I must understand why stock rise/fall trend/chopped, this is not a blind faith in a statistic system, it is the same as casino he knows the dice are not preset, he know that each side had an equal chance, and because of it he is willing to risk his money,


I did tested my system, I still need to learn more about markets and learn to get bigger in winning trades, this is where the art start where you get the killer instinct as sharp as it get,


Wish you all the best,


Make the odds in your favor


Eldad Nahmany.



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It is true that no system will provide 0 losses. But that is not the meaning of "consistently profitable". "Consistently profitable" means only that profits are greater than losses, the greater, the better, but 51% is greater. For most traders, the losses far outweigh the profits.


As for "believing in [yourself] being [your] biggest problem and setback to [your] own success", without a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plan AND the discipline to follow it, no amount of belief in yourself is going to make the least difference unless that belief is founded on your ability to follow your plan, assuming that you believe in your plan (if you don't, then why not?).


As for the "why", it's irrelevant. What is important is that you define trend and define chop so that you can recognize them in real time. You must then determine what it is that you are going to do about it, all of which should be done when you create your trading plan. As for forecasting, that's not possible. You must instead understand what you're looking AT and know exactly what you're looking FOR. If and when what you're looking for appears, you must know -- having tested all this in advance -- exactly what to do about it and with it.


Issues of randomness and casinos and killer instincts are not pertinent. There isn't even much "art" to it. Rather it is more a matter of study and testing and re-testing until one knows exactly what to look for and what to do with it if and when it appears. This is not a matter of blindly following a statistical model but of understanding and being able to recognize the difference between up and down.

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It is true that no system will provide 0 losses. But that is not the meaning of "consistently profitable". "Consistently profitable" means only that profits are greater than losses, the greater, the better, but 51% is greater. For most traders, the losses far outweigh the profits.



Money management is the core issue. All trading strategies (talking about techy approaches) are equally efficient, we just have to close losing traders faster and hold profitable trades longer. If you don't have trading plan do not trade forex.:)

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A stock exchange is an exchange (or bourse) where stock brokers and traders can buy and sell shares of stock, bonds, and other securities. Many large companies have their stocks listed on a stock exchange. This makes the stock more liquid and thus more attractive to many investors.

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could you please dumb it down a little bit?  that post was way too advanced for TL ... and so salient to the topic too.  


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    • Actions for the 22nd.  I seem to be on a bad run, I'm really struggling with the opening minutes of the trades I'm taking and then get sucked into a little over trading.
    •   Date : 23rd January 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2019.

      FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down from overnight highs, but still up 0.7 bp at 2.746%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.004%. Stock markets remained cautious during the Asian session. The Bank of Japan held policy steady, as expected, while further reducing its outlook for inflation. The resulting weakness in the Yen didn’t help stock markets and Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.60% and -0.14% respectively. The Hang Seng is also down -0.04%, despite mainland China markets initially moving higher as China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the banking system once again. Still, the measures are also a sign that officials are nervous about the slowdown in the economy and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.24% and -0.13%. The bank offered around 258 bln Yuan (USD 38 bln) to banks through its medium term lending tool. Markets continue to question the progress in the US-Sino trade talks, even though White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow said that the trade talks are still on and the story about cancelled preparatory meetings was “not true, there was never any meeting. We are moving toward negotiations.” The negotiations next week will be “very, very important” and “determinative”. Meanwhile, there are the first signs of a possible way out of the US government shutdown. Markets remain easily spooked, but appear to have already priced in a lot of risk last year and US stock futures are moving higher after yesterday’s sell off. Oil prices are trading at USD 53.27 per barrel. Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today Canadian Retail Sales – After Wholesale Sales plummeted yesterday, Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have also declined by 0.4% m/m, with core Retail Sales (ex autos) expected to have declined by 0.6%. World Economic Forum at Davos –The second day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The index is expected to have remained at a sub-zero level, standing at -2 after the -8 in the December release. Support and Resistance Levels

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Eyes The 109.88 Resistance Zone And Beyond USDJPY eyes the 109.88 resistance zone beyond as it looks to resume its upside pressure. On the upside, resistance comes in at 110.00 level. A turn above here will turn attention to the 110.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 111.00 level if the earlier resistance is invalidated out. The next resistance resides at the 111.50. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 109.50 level where a break will target the 109.00 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 108.50 level and then lower the 108.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further upside pressure on corrective recovery.  
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