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Date : 24th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th January 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.216% in opening trade. Treasury yields also fell back from overnight highs and are now down -0.2 bp at 2.739%, while JGB yields remain up 0.8 bp at 0.001%.
  • Stock markets mostly managed to move higher in Asia overnight (excluding the Nikkei which closed with a loss of 0.09%) and DAX futures are also up, while US futures are narrowly mixed and the FTSE 100 future is swinging between gains and losses.
  • Brexit developments remain in focus, but while in the UK officials continue to struggle to find a consensus on the way forward, the focus in the Eurozone turns to the ECB meeting today.
  • Rates are widely expected to remain on hold and the guidance little changed, but Draghi is likely to sound much more cautious on the growth and inflation outlook, which should underpin stock markets.
  • Norges Bank is also expected to hold rates steady and the data calendar focuses on Eurozone PMI readings, which are expected to show further weakness in the preliminary release for January.
  • US earnings reports have helped to underpin risk appetite in recent days, while the ongoing government shutdown is preventing timely data releases and leaving investors focused on trade talk developments, company news and in Europe, Brexit jitters.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • EU Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – The Services PMI is expected to come out at 51.5 in January, compared to 51.2 in December. This is expected to have a positive impact on the Composite PMI, which is expected to rise to 51.4 compared to 51.1 in December. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have remained at the same levels as in December.
  • World Economic Forum at Davos – The third day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision – ECB is not expected to proceed with any changes in the interest rate yet as it is has just started evaluating the effects from the end of QE in December. However, communication could provide important information regarding the future path of policy.
  • US Jobless Claims – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise to 220k compared to 213k last week, while Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to decline slightly to 1.735M, compared to 1.737M last week.
  • US Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – Reductions in PMIs are expected in all sectors, in conjunction with the overall perception of a slowdown in the US, and the ongoing government shutdown.

Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG] 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 25th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th January 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.6 bp at 2.732% while JGB yields fell back -0.4 bp to -0.008%, despite broad gains on Asian stock markets overnight.
  • Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 0.87% and 0.97% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 1.44% and the CSI 300 1.23%. The ASX climbed 0.8%, lifted by higher commodity prices.
  • Earnings reports have helped to prop up market sentiment this week, despite the fact that economists and central banks are now catching up with the gloomy view on the outlook for world growth that already sent markets lower at the end of last year.
  • The global cyclical chip sector seems to be recovering, which is underpinning tech stocks.
  • US and European stock futures are also posting broad gains, suggesting an overall positive end to the week, with markets now bracing for key events next week including the continuation of US-Sino trade talks as well as the Fed meeting.
  • ECB’s Coeure commented that it’s too early to discuss whether ECB will hike rates this year, while adding that the central bank may have to adjust rate guidance at some point. Coeure admitted in a Bloomberg interview that the economic slowdown has surprised the central bank although he also added that the jury is still out on how persistent the slowdown will be.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count – Oil Rigs stood at 852 last week, with the number of drills highly dependent on the price of Oil.
  • US Monthly Budget Statement – In view of the US government shutdown, the Budget Statement in December is expected to be much lower than the previous month, at a deficit of 12 billion, compared to a deficit of 205 billion in November.
  • World Economic Forum at Davos – The third day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.
  • German Ifo Business Climate – Following the slowdown in the German economy, business climate is expected to decline to 100.7 compared to 101.0 in the previous month.

Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG] 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 28th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th January 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • 10-year Treasury yields corrected from Friday’s highs and are down -1.8 bp at 2.740%.
  • Stock markets in Asia initially got support from US President Trump’s agreement to a temporary end to the 35-day partial government shutdown which underpinned Wall Street on Friday.
  • However, Trump also threatened to resume the shutdown on Feb 15 if his demands on the financing of a border wall are not met.
  • Japan underperformed and Topix and Nikkei were under pressure from the off, while elsewhere gains faded during the course of the session as markets continue to fret over potential risk factors, first and foremost the US-Sino trade talks and Brexit.
  • Topix and Nikkei lost -0.68% and -0.60% respectively. The Hang Seng is now down -0.105 and the CSI 300 down -0.06%.
  • Australia is shut for a holiday and US futures are heading south.
  • Oil prices fell back from a session high of USD 53.64 per barrel and the front end WTI future is now at USD 53.01 per barrel.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • ECB Draghi Speech (EUR, GMT 14:00) – The ECB President is due to testify at the European Parliament in Brussels.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The New Zealand trade balance is expected to have come out in surplus area in December, compared to a deficit in November.

Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG] 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 29th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th January 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • US equities turned lower after a miss by CAT and warning from Nvidia, both partly blaming the global slowdown and China in particular for their woes;yields back down.
  • Criminal charges in the US against Chinese telecom giant Huawei overshadow trade talks and prevent a long-awaited US-Sino deal.
  • Topix and Nikkei lost -0.63% and -0.47% respectively.
  • Brexit at complex crossroads in UK; today’s parliamentary votes may clear picture
  • Oil prices are higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 52.43 per barrel.
  • EURUSD recovered to clear 1.14, up from last week’s 6-wk low at 1.1289.
  • USDJPY came off highs, concurrently with correction in global stock markets.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • Brexit:
    • A number of amendments are due to be voted today in Parliament, including ones that seek to either delay Brexit from March 29, or to legislate against there being a no-deal Brexit, or opens the way to a second referendum on EU membership.
    • Parliament is also due to vote on the Prime Minister May’s Withdrawal Agreement, which lacking a concession from the EU to write-in an amendment that legally time limits the Irish backstop, or allows the UK to unilaterally withdraw from it, looks set to be rejected.
    • A no-deal Brexit scenario remains a possibility, although May, while using it as a threat, will likely ultimately prevent it, as will Parliament.
  • US Consumer Confidence – Expectations –January consumer confidence is expected to decline further to 126.0 from a prior 5-month low of 128.1 in December, versus an 18-year high of 137.9 in October.
  • Japanese Retail Trade – Expectations – December retail sales are seen contracting at a -1.0% y/y from -2.2% for large retailers. Total sales are expected to slow further to a 1.0% y/y rate from 1.4% in November and 3.6% in October.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 30th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th January 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Stock markets traded mixed in Asia – NASDAQ is outperforming, Nikkei lost -0.52% and UK100 futures are moving higher.
  • No more bad news from Apple: Apple Inc.’s report of sharp growth in its services business helped to underpin sentiment,.
  • Brexit: UK lawmakers didn’t vote to extend the Brexit deadline. PM May heads back to Brussels to re-negotiate backstop.
  • EU leaders were once again quick to stress that the legal text of the withdrawal agreement is not up for discussion.
  • French GDP numbers held up better than expected and German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped higher.
  • EURUSD ebbed back to net unchanged (1.1430) after posting 2-week high at 1.1451.
  • USDJPY stucks in the mid-to-low 109.0s.
  • GBPUSD is trading near 1.3100 from 1.3190 high.
  • The front end WTI future is trading at USD 53.42 per barrel.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • German Jan HICP – Expectations -While the German HICP rates are above the Eurozone average now, base effects from lower energy prices continue to keep the headline rate below the ECB’s 2% limit. The preliminary January reading should be at 1.8% y/y .
  • ADP Employment – Expectations –The January ADP Employment report should reveal a 195k gain for the month, after a 271k December gain.
  • FOMC – Expectations – The FOMC statement will be released at 19:00 GMT. That will be followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference, which will now be a regular affair at each meeting, although forecasts will continue to be published quarterly. No one expects any action on rates tomorrow (including IOER). We expect the statement to include the new watchword “patient,” along with “flexible,” with the latter perhaps a nod to the balance sheet, and stress on data dependency.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 31st January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st January 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Asian stock markets rallied after the FOMC, which boosted risk appetite.
  • FOMC held policy steady and pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes – a possible sign that the Fed is signalling a potential end to its tightening cycle.
  • Topix and Nikkei climbed 1.08% and 1.06% respectively.
  • US Equities firmed after Apple, Boeing, AMD results.
  • German Retail Sales slumped 4.3% m/m at the start of the European session. It raised concerns about the health of the German economy.
  • European futures are moving higher, in tandem with US futures, after a rally overnight.
  • WTI crude +2.0% near $54.50 after small EIA build.
  • USDIndex stumbled 0.45% to 95.40; EUR probed 1.15, JPY through 109.00.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]Main Macro Events Today

  • Eurozone Prelim. Flash GDP – Expectations – Overall Eurozone GDP should show growth holding at 0.2% q/q, but with risk to the downside.
  • German and EU Unemployment Change – Expectations – A decline is anticipated in the German unemployment number of -4K. The December Eurozone unemployment rate is seen falling back to 7.8% from 7.9%.
  • Canadian GDP – Expectations – GDP for November is on track to contract 0.1% in November (m/m, sa) as the sharp decline in oil prices materially impacted the economy.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 1st February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • US-Sino trade talks will continue later this month with the March 1 deadline for tariff hikes coming ever closer. Both sides sounded cautiously optimistic
  • Stock markets traded mixed in Asia. Topix and Nikkei closed with a gain of -0.18% and a marginal gain of 0.07% respectively.
  • China’s manufacturing PMI decline dropped to the lowest level since February 2016. This revived concerns about the country’s economic strength.
  • Earnings reports continue to come into the mix and banks were the biggest drag on Japanese benchmarks, while electronics makers gained.
  • European stock futures are moving higher and US futures are now also mostly up as the focus shifts to US jobs data.
  • The WTI rallied as much as 2%, peaking at two-plus month highs of $55.32 before falling back to the current $53.80.
  • EURUSD eased from 3-week highs, back to 1.1440 area. USDJPY is above 2-week lows and currently retesting 109.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • Eurozone Manuf. PMI – Expectations – January Eurozone Manufacturing PMI will likely be confirmed at just 50.5 from the preliminary print, dropping from December’s 51.4, with confidence data adding to concerns that the slowdown will be more protracted than initially expected.
  • Eurozone’s CPI – Expectations –Eurozone preliminary CPI reading for January should be at just 1.5% y/y, down from 1.6% y/y at the end of 2018.
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manu. PMI – Expectations – January nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k, with a 195k private payroll gain. The ISM is expected to slip to a new 2-year low of 54.0 in January from 54.3 in December, versus a 14-year high of 61.4 in August.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 4th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.691%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.023%.
  • Yields continue to move higher and Asian stock markets mostly managed modest gains in quiet trade, with China and South Korea closed for Lunar New Year celebrations.
  • Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 1.07% and 0.46% respectively, while the Hang Seng climbed 0.21% and the ASX closed up 0.48%. US futures are marginally higher.
  • US President Trump told CBS trade talks with China are “doing very well” and also sounded confident on an agreement with North Korea, which helped to underpin confidence and risk appetite, after strong US data releases on Friday dampened concern about the outlook for world growth and counterbalanced disappointing forecasts from Amazon.
  • Earnings reports will remain a key factor this week alongside fundamentals and political developments in Europe also, where Brexit concerns remain high on the agenda.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • ECB Mersch Speech – Yves Mersch, a member of the ECB Executive Board will speak at Lamfalussy Lectures Conference of Lamfalussy Award at Central Bank of Hungary in Budapest
  • UK Construction PMI – The UK PMI is expected to have stood at 52.6 in January, compared to 52.8 in December.
  • US Factory Orders – Factory Orders are expected to have grown by 0.2% in November, compared to -2.1% in October.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 5th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • RBA left the cash rate on hold as expected and conceded that some downside risks have increased. RBA set to make subtle shift to the dovish side.
  • RBA’s central scenario for the economy is around 3% growth in 2019.
  • AUDUSD perked up to 0.7260 from 0.7204.
  • Alphabet beat on profits and revenue, by making $8.94 billion on $39.27 billion revenue, but shares fell 3% on continuing pressure on advertising prices and decreasing margins.
  • European stock futures are moving higher, while US futures are struggling and slightly in the red.
  • Better than expected BRC retail sales out of the UK helped to underpin sentiment ahead of Services PMI.
  • WTI retreated 1.2% to $54.0 area, down from 2019 highs of $55.74 bbl – Currently at $55.00 area.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • Eurozone Services PMI – The overall Eurozone Services PMI for January is expected to come in unchanged from the preliminary number at 50.8, which should leave the composite at 50.7.
  • UK Service PMI – It is expected to come in with a headline of 51.0 after 51.2 in December.
  • EU Retail Sales – They are expected to have corrected -1.8% m/m, after the strong November reading.
  • US Service and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to slip further to 57.5 in January from 58.0 in December, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. Services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 54.2 for January.

Support and Resistance
[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 6th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Asian stock markets had another lacklustre session.
  • In Europe, Bunds got another boost from the much weaker than expected German orders number. Manufacturing orders down -1.6% m/m.
  • RBA shifted to a neutral stance: RBA Governor Philip Lowe mentioned that the ‘interest rate outlook is now more evenly balanced’.
  • AUD tumbled in tandem with 10-year rates, which dropped -6.3 bp to 2.180%.
  • EURUSD at 12-day lows under 1.1400; GBPUSD drifted back below 1.3000.
  • WTI future is trading at USD 53.66, after falling back from levels over USD 55 yesterday.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • US Trade Balance – The November trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$54.0 bln from -$55.5 bln.
  • Nonfarm Productivity and Labor Costs – Nonfarm productivity growth is pegged at 2.5% in Q4, following a Q3 trimming to 1.7% from 2.3%, while unit labor costs may rise 1.5%.
  • Canadian Ivey PMI – The January Ivey PMI is expected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 62.0 from 59.7 in December.
  • NZ Employment Change – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to slip further to 57.5 in January from 58.0 in December, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. Services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 54.2 for January.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 7th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • 10-year Treasury yields are down 0.5 bp at 2.690% but JGB yields are up 1.3 bp at -0.016%, despite a 0.59% decline in the Nikkei and a 0.83% drop in the Topix amid another mixed session in Asia.
  • Japanese shares were hit by corporate earnings, while the ASX continued to rally, gaining 1.10%, in tandem with local bonds after the dovish shift at the RBA this week.
  • The RBI meanwhile surprised with a cut in the repo rate by a quarter point. Hong Kong and China remained closed and despite some movement, investors continue to hold back ahead of the next round of US-Sino trade talks next week.
  • US futures are heading south despite a cautiously upbeat assessment of the economy from Fed Chairman Powell, who said “the US economy is now in a good place”.
  • The front end WTI future managed a session high of USD 54.04 before falling back to USD 53.79 per barrel.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • Theresa May meetings in Brussels – Theresa May and the European Commission’s president will meet today, with the UK PM hoping to obtain fresh concessions, despite the EU’s insistence that it will not renegotiate the Brexit deal. In late afternoon, May is also expected to meet with Donald Tusk, the European Council President.
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision – BoE is not expected to bring forth any changes to its interest rate policy ahead of a Brexit agreement and thus the rate is expected to remain at 0.75%.
  • BoE Carney Speech – Mark Carney is expected to speak along with other MPC members about the BoE inflation report.
  • Fed Clarida Speech – FOMC Member, Richard Clarida is due to speak at the Czech National Bank’s conference about the neutral interest rate, with audience questions expected.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 8th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp and JGB yields dropped -1.7 bp to -0.038% as Asian stocks tumbled on growth concerns and pessimism on US-Sino relations, with markets worrying that there won’t be a trade deal in time to prevent another round of tariff hikes.
  • Asked whether he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 1 deadline US President Trump said “No”, before adding “unlikely”, although he suggested they would “maybe” meet later.
  • Topix and Nikkei lost -1.86% and -1.96% respectively today. The Hang Seng fell back -0.215, after returning from holiday, while mainland China markets remained closed.
  • The ASX is down after the RBA slashed its growth projection to 2.5% from 3.25% with its quarterly statement on monetary policy today. The CPI forecast was cut to 1.25%.
  • Growth warnings in Europe yesterday saw European and US markets closing with broad losses. The negative growth backdrop and heightened risk aversion is keeping bond markets supported.
  • Oil prices fell back to USD 52.26 per barrel.
  • Fed’s Bullard promotes caution on balance sheet unwind. He declined to say how close the Fed is to ending balance sheet unwind process but said “We are closer than I thought we were a year ago”.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • Russia Interest Rate Decision – No surprises are expected from the Russian Central Bank which is expected to keep its interest rate at 7.75%.
  • Canada Labour Market Data – Canadian data are expected to show a slight deterioration in the economy in January, as net change in employment is forecast to be lower than December while the unemployment rate is forecast to have grown to 5.7%, compared to 5.6% in December.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 11th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Stocks in Asia traded mixed, amid lingering concerns over US-Sino trade relations and doubt whether the talks will bring sufficient progress to prevent another round of punitive tariffs.
  • Chinese equities rallied after returning from last week’s holiday, with small caps and stocks in the tech hub of Shenzhen rallying. The Hang Seng was up 0.46% as of 6:30GMT the CSI 300 up 1.62% and Shanghai and Shenzen Comp climbed 1.18% and 2.58% respectively.
  • Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, so Treasury futures won’t trade either until Europe opens.
  • Elsewhere in Asia bonds traded mixed with Australia outperforming as the ASX underperformed and dropped -0.17%.
  • Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will meet Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lightizer in Beijing for high level talks this week.
  • Meanwhile the government in Washington may be heading for another shutdown, which is adding to caution in wider markets.
  • US futures are slightly in the red, while European futures moved slightly higher. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 52.22 per barrel.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • Swiss CPI – The inflation rate in Switzerland is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y in January, down from 0.7% y/y in December.
  • UK GDP and Production Data – UK GDP is expected to have stood at 1.4% y/y in the final quarter of 2018, compared to 1.5% y/y growth in Q3. Manufacturing production is expected to have declined by 0.7% y/y, compared to a decline of 1.1% y/y in November. Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m, compared to a decline of 0.4% in November.
  • US Unit Labour Cost – US Unit Labour Cost growth are expected to have stood at 1.7% in 2018Q4, compared to 0.9% in the third quarter.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 12th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Stock markets remain supported by improving risk appetite, with investors hoping for progress in US-Sino trade talks.
  • Japanese markets outperformed in catch up trade on returning from yesterday’s holiday and underpinned by a weaker yen.
  • US lawmakers have reached an “agreement in principle” on funding for border security that would stop a second government shutdown on Friday.
  • Brexit concerns continue to linger.
  • Comments from ECB’s Lane, has underpinned speculation that Draghi will rule out another rate hike this year amid the expected downward revisions to growth forecasts.
  • The front end WTI future is trading at USD 52.55 per barrel.3
  • EURUSD went sub-1.1300 for first time in 6 weeks on generally firmer dollar.
  • USDJPY rallied to 6-wk high of 110.64, underpinned by rally in global stocks.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • German President Weidmann speech – German President Weidmann is due to deliver a speech titled “The role of the central bank in a modern economy – a European perspective” at the University of South Africa, in Pretoria.
  • BoE Carney speech – Due to speak about the economic outlook and global trade tensions, in London.
  • Fed Chair Powell speech – Due to deliver a speech titled “Economic Development in High Poverty Rural Communities” at the Hope Enterprise Corporation Rural Policy Forum, in Mississippi.
  • Fed Mester and George speech – Cleveland Fed hawk Mester will update the economic outlook and policy, while KC Fed hawk George will discuss “Charting America’s Economic Course.” Though both have been two of the most hawkish on the FOMC, each has recently indicated a pause is in order currently.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 13th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 2.693% and JGB yields lifted 1.2 bp to -0.0013%.
  • Stocks were supported by trade talk hopes as US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that he could see letting the March 1 deadline on China tariffs slide a little if the two sides were close to a complete deal helped to underpin sentiment.
  • The negative sentiment that dominated much of the last months of 2018 continues to unwind, but markets will ultimately have to see permanent solutions and real results, otherwise they remain at risk of sliding back again.
  • For now though markets are mostly in a positive mood and while the ASX closed with a loss of -0.26%, Topix and Nikkei rallied 1.06% and 1.34% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 1.21%, China’s blue chip index CSI is up 2.1% and the Shanghai Composite 1.92%.
  • US futures are equally moving higher, as are European futures.
  • Oil prices have also come back from the lows seen early in the week and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 53.64 per barrel.
  • The calendar today has inflation releases for the UK and the US, with the Riksbank meeting not expected to post any surprises.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • UK Price Indices – The UK’s Price Indices are expected to continue close to their December levels, however at mixed outcomes. The Retail Price Index is expected to stand at 2.6% y/y compared to 2.7% last month, the PPI to increase to 3.8% y/y compared to 3.7%, while the CPI is expected to have stood at 1.9% compared to 2.1% in December.
  • EU Industrial Production – Industrial production in the European Union is expected to continue its decline albeit at a slower pace, with a reduction of 0.4% m/m expected in the December data, compared to a 1.7% reduction in November.
  • US CPI Inflation – Inflation is expected to have declined in the US, in association with the prevailing understanding of a slowdown in the economy, with the CPI expected to have increased by 1.5% y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y in December. Core CPI is expected to have increased by 2.1% y/y compared to 2.2%.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 14th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.2 bp at 2.704% and JGB yields fell back -0.8 bp to -0.025% as the rally on stock markets faded.
  • Wall Street still closed with slight gains, but there wasn’t enough momentum to sustain a further broad move higher in Asia.
  • Topix and Nikkei closed little changed and the Hang Seng is down -0.26% while CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 0.33% and 0.13% respectively, after Chinese data showed a rebound in exports at the start of the year.
  • The tech hub of Shenzhen outperformed with a gain of 0.93%, but the ASX closed with a marginal loss.
  • US futures as well as European futures are moving higher though, so there is still some life in markets after reports that the US is considering delaying China tariffs for 60 days. President Trump had already told reporters that trade talks are making good progress.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • EU GDP – The common currency’s GDP is expected to have grown by 1.2% y/y in the final quarter of the year, the same growth rate recorded in Q3.
  • US Retail Sales – One of the most important indicators of consumption, Retail Sales ex Autos are expected to have grown by 0.1% m/m in December, compared to 0.2% m/m in November.
  • US PPI Inflation – In accordance with the slowdown picture in the US, PPI inflation is expected to have slowed to 2.5% y/y in January, compared to 2.7% y/y in December.
  • US Jobless Claims – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 1.74M on the week ending at January 8, compared to 1.736M last week. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have decreased to 225K compared to 234K the previous week.
  • Brexit Vote –Theresa May has put a new motion before Parliament asking to allow her to continue negotiating, in order to seek changes to the backstop.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 15th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • USD under pressure from that weak data yesterday, as US retail sales mix has revived concerns about the global growth outlook and without tangible results, markets seem unwilling to invest any more in trade talk hopes.
  • Euro slipped under 1.1300 (1.285), as Germany’s flirt with recession has also shifted the focus to flagging growth in Europe, which has its own trade dispute with the US.
  • GBP pressured from another lost Brexit vote for the Government, moving under 1.2800.
  • Overnight Chinese CPI and PPI both missed expectations and Japanese Industrial Production remained woeful. Gains in AUD (under 0.7100) and NZD (0.6825) were reduced.
  • Stock markets closed narrowly mixed on Wall Street with the USA100 managing a slight gain, while USA30 and USA500 were pressured by disappointing Retail Sales.
  • In Asia most markets headed south, with Chinese indices underperforming. CSI and Shanghai Comp had rallied in recent sessions on hopes that another round of punitive tariffs could be avoided and that Trump would push out the March 1 deadline to give talks more time to progress, but the blue chip CSI 300 lost 1.58% today and the Shanghai Comp lost 1.13%, while the tech hub of Shenzen outperformed slightly, but also declined by 0.27%. The JPY dropped to 110.28 while Topix and Nikkei closed with losses of 0.79% and 1.13% respectively and the Hang Seng declined by 1.86%.
  • US futures are also broadly lower, suggesting a somber close to the week. Oil prices tested the USD 55 per barrel mark before returning to $55.54 per barrel.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • UK Retail Sales – Retail Sales ex-Fuel are expected to have increased in January, to 3.0% y/y, compared to 2.6% in December.
  • US Industrial Production – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in January, compared to 0.3% m/m in the previous month.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Sentiment is expected to have rebounded as markets anticipate that the preliminary reading will see it increase from 91.2 in January to 93.0 in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 18th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Japanese bond yields increased, outperforming against most other bonds in Asia as stock markets rallied.
  • Trade optimism, improving credit data out of China and better than expected machinery orders in Japan boosted risk appetite and Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 1.6% and 1.8% respectively.
  • The Hang Seng is up 1.7% as CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp have gained 2.9% and 2.4% respectively so far.
  • US President Trump said over the weekend that talks were “very productive” and China’s President Xi Jinping said the latest round of meetings “achieved important progress in another step”, which fueled optimism that another round of punitive tariffs can be avoided.
  • Improved credit data out of China meanwhile helped to calm concerns about growth prospects in the country.
  • US futures are narrowly mixed and European stock markets marginally higher, so it remains to be seen whether the rally will be sustained.
  • The front end WTI future is trading at USD 55.93 per barrel, after testing highs over USD 56.
  • US markets are closed today and there was no trade in Treasuries.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today

  • US Presidents’ Day – US Markets closed today for a public holiday.

Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 19th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Mixed session on Asian stock markets.
  • Japan’s central bank: “We won’t rule out further easing measures.”
  • US-China trade talks resume for an extended second week in Washington after terminating in Beijing last week with “progress” but without resolution.
  • In Europe, Trump’s threat of auto tariffs and Brexit talks dominate ahead of tomorrow’s Fed minutes.
  • President Trump has 90 days to decide whether to act on the probe into whether imported vehicles pose a national security threat.
  • AUDJPY has been the biggest mover in a day of directionally challenged markets, as participants wait on progress from the US-China trade talks.
  • Cable has lodged back above 1.2900.
  • Crude Oil prices meanwhile are trading close to three-month highs.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
 

  • German ZEW Investor Sentiment – A slight improvement is expected, to -14.0, which is actually a tad more pessimistic than Bloomberg consensus, which expects a rise to -13.5 from -15.0.
  • UK Unemployment – Unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at the multi-decade low 4.0%
  • UK Average Earnings – The average household income is anticipated to rise 3.5% y/y in the three months to December, up from 3.3% in the month prior, which would be a new cycle high for this metric.


Support and Resistance
[IMG] 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Bund yields lower in opening trade, Equity markets mostly higher in Asia.
  • Stock markets in Asia remained underpinned by hopes of a US-Sino trade deal.
  • Wall Street closed higher, helped by positive earnings at Walmart Inc. Fresh.
  • President Trump meanwhile suggested that March 1 tariff deadline is not cast in stone, so there is hope that further tariffs can be avoided.
  • Japan’s exports fell 8.4% in January, while imports declined 0.6% y/y. The contraction in exports seems consistent with escalating concern that Japan’s export sector will be dented this year by global trade frictions and the slowing in China’s economy.
  • The Yuan lifted after a Bloomberg report saying the US was looking for a pledge from China that it will not devalue its yuan currency as part of the trade deal.
  • USDJPY has climbed to 110.91 from 110.60, amid cautious risk-on theme
  • WTI crude edged out fresh 3-month high of $56.77.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]

Main Macro Events Today

  • Juncker and May meet for another round of crunch talks in Brussels today.
  • EU Consumer Confidence – The overall Eurozone number Consumer Price Index (M/M) on course to be confirmed at 1.4% y/y.
  • FOMC minutes – The focus turns on the FOMC minutes to the January 29, 30 policy meeting as we look to glean more information on the Fed’s pivot to a more dovish point of view, even as rates were left unchanged. We did get a glimpse from Chairman Powell’s press conference, where he noted tighter financial conditions, along with tame inflation. And he said the onus is on price pressures to force a rate move.
  • Australian labour data – The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.0%.

Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 21st February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Asian equities initially rallied after Fed minutes promised patience on further policy action but most have moved down from earlier highs.
  • Hopes that the US and China are nearing a deal on trade have risen after an unnamed source cited by Reuters said the two sides have started to outline commitments in principle in what is described as the most significant progress yet.
  • The JPY225 closed with a gain of just 0.15%, while the Topix was unchanged from yesterday. The Hang Seng is up 0.03% and mainland China indices are also little changed.
  • The AUS200 outperformed and rallied 0.70%, after better than expected jobs data.
  • US futures are stronger after Reuters reports outlined progress in US-Sino trade talks and European futures are also moving higher.
  • The March WTI futures are trading at USD 57.33 per barrel.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]

Main Macro Events Today

  • EU PMIs – EU Manufacturing PMI is expected to have declined to 50.3 in February, compared to 50.5 last month, dangerously close to the 50 threshold. Services PMI is expected to have increased to 51.4, compared to 51.2 in January, hence pushing the overall Composite PMI higher to 51.1, compared to 51.0 in the previous month.
  • Philly Fed Index – The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to have declined to 14, compared to 17 in January, still registering a positive effect.
  • Durable Goods – Durable goods are expected to come out registering positive growth for December, compared to negative for November.
  • US PMIs – Manufacturing is expected to have declined in the US, similar to the EU, reaching 54.7 compared to 54.9 last month, while Services are expected to have slightly grown to 54.3 compared to 54.2 in January.
  • Existing Home Sales – Home Sales are expected to have remained at more or less the same levels, at 5M, compared to 4.99M last month.
  • CB Leading Index – The Conference Board Index is expected to have shown a 0.1% m/m increase in January, compared to the 0.1% m/m contraction in December.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 22nd February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Both Topix and Nikkei, declined during the Asian session, with -0.25% and -0.18% respectively.
  • Overall, stock markets in Asia struggled through most of the session as subdued inflation data rekindled concerns about a lack of demand and flagging growth and after Wall Street closed in the red.
  • News that US President Trump will meet with China’s top trade negotiator today in Washington seems to have helped Chinese markets to stage a late rally and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 1.76% and 1.51% respectively and the Hang Seng also managed to claw back losses and is up 0.11%.
  • US stock futures are posting marginal gains and the April WTI future is trading at just over USD 57 per barrel.
  • USDCAD rallied over 1.32 to 1.3225, as Oil inventories rose, with the US at record production levels. Oil price is now back around the $57 mark.
  • Japanese CPI data same as forecasts, pushing the Yen higher.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]

Main Macro Events Today

  • EU CPI Inflation – Core inflation is expected to be confirmed at 1.1% y/y while the overall inflation rate is expected to have stood at 1.4% in January.
  • Canadian Retail Sales – Retail Sales are expected to have declined by 0.3% m/m in December, an improvement from the 0.6% declined observed in November.
  • Mario Draghi Speech – The ECB President is due to speak to the University of Bologna where he will accept an honourary degree.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 25th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • A rally in Chinese equities led to a broad rise in Asian stock markets, after confirmation from US President Trump that he will delay the planned increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, which had been scheduled to start in March.
  • This saw the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp rallying 5.58% and 5.29% respectively.
  • The Hang Seng rose 0.44%, while Topix and Nikkei gained 0.71% and 0.48% respectively, as Trump cited “substantial progress” in the talks and said that he would plan a summit meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago estate to conclude an agreement, if there is additional progress.
  • More concrete signs then that trade tensions can be resolved through talks and US futures are moving higher, while the April WTI future is trading at USD 57.16 per barrel.
  • USD traded mixed at 1.1345 against the Euro and at 110.60 against the Yen.
  • No Brexit Vote this week after all but one should take place by March 12.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]

Main Macro Events Today

  • BoE Carney Speech – The BoE Governor is due to hold a press conference in London.
  • FOMC Clarida Speech – Richard Clarida is expected to participate in a moderated discussion titled “A conversation with Community Leaders” in Dallas, Texas.
  • Wholesale Inventories – The change in the total value of goods held by wholesalers is expected to stand at 0.3%, the same rate as the previous month.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 26th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Stock markets outside of mainland China headed south.
  • The first offshore default by a Chinese state owned company in 20 years sparked a fresh wave of risk aversion and concerns over the health of the Chinese economy, as it has failed to repay a US dollar bond in Hong Kong.
  • Border tensions between India and Pakistan added to the risk-off sentiment.
  • European stock futures are also heading south, in tandem with US futures,amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty.
  • German GfK consumer confidence held steady at 10.8 in the advanced reading for March, unchanged from the February reading.
  • WTI crude dropped $2.00/bbl on Pres Trump tweet “Oil prices getting too high.”
  • USDJPY fell amid risk-on theme, but still above 110.70.
  • EURUSD firmer to around 1.1350 area.
  • Gold is still unable to move decisively past the 1330 mark.

Charts of the Day
[IMG]

Main Macro Events Today

  • Inflation Report Hearings
  • UK Prime Minister Theresa May will update parliament today.
  • US Housing data – Housing starts are estimated to rise 0.3% to a 1.260 mln pace in December, following a 3.2% jump to 1.256 mln in November. Building Permits are set at 129M in December.
  • Fed Chair Powell Testifies – Fed Chairman Powell gives his semi-annual report to Congress. He will testify before the Senate Banking Committee.
  • CB Consumer Confidence – It is expected to rise to 124.0 in February, from an 18-month low of 120.2 in January, and versus an 18-year high of 137.9 in October.

Support and Resistance
[IMG] 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 27th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th February 2019.


[IMG]

FX News Today

  • Asian stock markets started higher after Fed’s Powell reiterated the cautious stance at the US central bank, telling lawmakers that there is “no rush to make a judgment” on further rate hikes.
  • Traders are awaiting the second half of Powell’s testimony, while watching the US-North Korea summit, but after the sharp corrections in the second half of last year markets appear reluctant to push up too far.
  • Dollar gained some against the Euro as CB confidence rose to 131.4, compared to 124.8 last month, while GBP declined from its 1.3272 peak. The Yen continued to rally against both the Euro and the Dollar, currently trading at 110.44 with respect to the latter.
  • Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 0.20% and 0.50% respectively, while mainland China bourses, which outperformed through much of the session, have erased gains leaving CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down 0.56% and 0.02%.
  • Small caps underperformed and the Shenzhen Comp is down -0.87%.
  • The Hang Seng meanwhile is still hanging on to a 0.20% gain.
  • US futures are heading south while the front end WTI future lifted to USD 55.88 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Main Macro Events Today
 

  • US Durable Goods – Durable goods orders, an important indicator of consumer spending, are expected to have grown by 0.2% in January, compared to 1.2% in December.
  • Canadian Inflation – Probably the country which usually posts the world’s most stable inflation rate, Canada is nonetheless expected to have seen its prices grow by 1.5% y/y in January, compared to 2% in December.
  • Fed Chair Powell Testifies – Fed Chairman Powell continues his semi-annual report before the Senate Banking Committee.
  • Pending Home Sales – Pending Home Sales are expected to have grown by 0.4% m/m, compared to -2.2% in December.
  • Factory Orders – Orders are expected to have increased by 0.5% m/m, compared to a 0.6% reduction in November.

Support and Resistance

[IMG] 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    • Bitcoin: Upcoming Halving And What To Expect Bitcoin’s upcoming halving will be one of the most followed crypto-related occasions in the year 2020. Thousands of cryptocurrency enthusiasts will be observing the markets eagerly to witness what effect this year’s halving will have on the cryptocurrency. Many believe that the occasion would have a positive effect on BTC’s price as has been observed in the past. On the other hand, some are expecting the price to drop dramatically after the occasion. Whatever the result may be, it is apparent that this occasion will be a defining juncture for Bitcoin. In this review, we breakdown what the Bitcoin halving is all about, some effects of this occasion, historic occurrences, and what to anticipate from this year’s halving occurrence. Bitcoin was built on a system that mandates regular halving (also known as Halvenings) to sustain its value. The halvings are programmed to happen every 4 years. Already, Bitcoin has witnessed two halving processes, the first in 2012, and the other in 2016. The next halving process is scheduled for the 20th of May 2020. Bitcoin’s Value Preserving Strategy Bitcoin runs on a deflationary economic model which ensures that over time, lesser and lesser Bitcoin tokens will be created until finally, the creation of new Bitcoin tokens will end. BTC’s total supply is capped at 21 million, meaning that it is impossible to have more than that exact number of Bitcoin token in circulation at any point in time. It has been estimated that the very last Bitcoin token will be mined in the year 2140. Bitcoin’s deflationary model predisposes it to scarcity which increases in demand, thereby causing its value to increase as well. This model is different from traditional fiat which is based on an inflationary model, this means that banks can instruct for the printing of more banknotes at will. This is not an ideal practice per se as a boost in the volume of banknotes in circulation could result in the devaluation of that currency. Bitcoin’s “Block Reward” System New Bitcoin tokens are pumped into the market through a popular process known as cryptocurrency “mining”. Bitcoin miners get rewarded with a Bitcoin “block” allotment every time they successfully solve transactions. The blocks are allotted by the Bitcoin algorithm. The block rewarding process happens every ten minutes. So in fact, ten minutes from this moment, new Bitcoin tokens will be created. Mining is not an easy process. It requires a certain level of expertise, specific hardware, and a serious quantity of electricity. After the inception of Bitcoin, the first mining reward was fifty Bitcoin. This meant that every ten minutes, a Bitcoin miner received fifty Bitcoin tokens for solving transactions. That number has since been halved, twice, and is now at 12.5 Bitcoin token per block reward. By May this year, the halving will bring that figure down to 6.25 Bitcoin token per block reward. This feature has been pre-programmed into Bitcoin’s system. What This Could Mean for Mining Lesser block rewards are not the only reason Bitcoin is scarce. It has gotten significantly harder to mine Bitcoin and receive rewards. This is because mining is now more difficult as more miners are entering the system thereby increasing competition. Consequently, an increase in competition means miners require more sophisticated tools to solve cryptographic Algos. Over the years, miners have created what is known as “mining pools” to better handle the rising competition of mining. Mining pools are a network of miners, collectively working towards achieving block rewards. Block rewards in mining pools are distributed according to the percentage of effort put into earning a block. Improved Stock-To-Flow Ratio Halvings have several profitable impacts on Bitcoin. One such effect is that it boosts the Stock-To-Flow ratio of Bitcoin. A commodity’s STF ratio is calculated by dividing the quantity of the asset held in reserves, by the quantity manufactured in a year. The greater the STF ratio, the lesser the annual inflation on that asset. Commodities like gold possess a very impressive STF ratio as its available quantity is limited. Presently, Bitcoin has a significantly lesser STF ratio, unlike gold. Regardless, more halving occasions will boost the Bitcoin’s STF ratio. It is even believed that someday, Bitcoin will surpass gold in the STF ratio rating and will be an even better store of value. This is probably why Bitcoin is dubbed “digital gold”. After-Effects of Previous Halvenings 2012’s Halving The first Bitcoin halving happened on the 28th of November. On that day, the cryptocurrency recorded a 6.5% trade range. Regardless, to the surprise of many, the price remained at a consolidated state months after the occasion. This was partly because Bitcoin was still in its infancy and so, not many people were engaged with it. Also, media coverage at the time was not what it is today, which means many people were not informed of what was going on. Based on the information on Bitcoin’s BNC Liquid Index, the price of BTC attained a high of about $32 on the 8th of June 2011. The price of BTC never broke above the $32 mark until the 28th of February 2013 (4 months later), where price witnessed a climb to $260 after which a drop was experienced and the price stayed below that level for several months. Fast forward to the 30th of November 2013 (close to a year after the 2012 halving), Bitcoin rallied dramatically and peaked at $1,167, which was a whopping 9,686% increase from the initial price of $11 on halving. 2016’s Halving On the 9th of July 2016, the second halving, the price peaked at $664 but did not maintain that uptrend instead fell to $626 on the same day. Subsequently, the price continued on that downward trajectory for about three months. However, things started looking up for Bitcoin from the 27th of October 2016 when price closed above the previous halving’s high of $664. Bitcoin later proceeded to smash its last all-time high of $1,167 on the 23rd of February 2017. This spike started the famous bull rally of 2017 through 2018, which witnessed a peak at $20,000 sometime in December 2017. 2016’s halving shot Bitcoin’s price from $664 to $20,000 which was a growth of 2,912%. Possible Outcomes of this Year’s Halving? In the crypto sector, the Bitcoin halving is undoubtedly among the most talked-about and anticipated occasions of the year. Presently, there are mixed expectations as to what the outcome of the 2020 halving may be. Many in the crypto sector are very optimistic and believe that, just as in the past, the price will soar dramatically either before or after the occasion. Creator of Kraken, Jesse Powell expects the price of Bitcoin to rise close to $100k or 1 million after the halving. The CTO of Morgan Creek Digital Assets also shares the belief of Jesse and expects Bitcoin to reach the $100,000 mark by 2021. He says that scarcity is a driving force for the demand of any commodity. He explains that the 2020 halving will cause Bitcoin to be more scarce. Other crypto players believe that this year’s occasion will not have a similar trajectory with past occasions and would, instead, mar the price of Bitcoin. Another possible scenario that has been observed over time is the “buy and dump” case. This scenario usually plays out when there is a highly anticipated occurrence. It works exceptionally well when the upcoming occasion is sure to have a quantifiable effect on supply and demand dynamics. The price of the asset in question experiences a huge spike just days or a few weeks to the main event. This transpires because investors stock up on the asset towards the event. After the event, however, the price of the said asset drops significantly. This kind of activity has transpired frequently in the cryptocurrency space. One such occasion was the Bitcoin futures trading releases for the CBOE and CME. Just a few days to the CME’s release, the price of Bitcoin rallied from $6,400 and peaked close to its all-time high of $20,000 in a day. Not surprisingly, the price dropped considerably in the period that followed those releases. Furthermore, some cryptocurrency experts believe that the aftermath of the halving has already been priced in. It has been observed that demand is “missing” in the Bitcoin market, this could be a clear indication that the halving has been priced in. Usually, months before a halving, a boost in demand and price of Bitcoin is always noticeable. This time, however, no increase can be observed in neither of the stated areas. In this case, it could lead to a lateral trading period which might be a good thing for traders. At the moment, Bitcoin is still struggling to break above the $7,200 mark and there are no signs of a reversal happening soon. Whatever the result may be one thing is for sure, the price of Bitcoin is set to experience drastic changes this year.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Your All-Round Guide To Security Token Offerings Security token offerings (STOs) are one of the most revered investment options in the crypto space at the moment. It has even been termed the “future of fundraising”. But what exactly are STOs and what is the rave all about? This article aims to break down STOs, what it is all about, and how it can be beneficial to you. What Exactly is a Security Token Offering? STOs, simply put, provide a means of tokenizing fungible financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and REITs, and introduces the tokens to the public through regulated channels. STOs are a lot like ICOs as they generally involve the same processes. However, the differentiating factor between STOs and ICOs is in the tokens being sold. With ICOs, the tokens are usually non-descriptive and could range from anything digital currencies to utility tokens. With STOs however, the token is a “security”, meaning that it is exchangeable and possesses a set monetary value. Breakdown of Security Tokens Security tokens function as digital versions of the assets they represent. Here’s a list of some popular security token representations: 1- Capital markets: Firms can convert their shares into tokens, allowing investors to own parts of the firm. In some cases, owners of tokens receive dividends and can execute votes on the affairs of the firm. 2- Equity funds: Equity funds can also tokenize their shares for sale. 3- Commodities: Commodities like gold, natural gas, coffee can be tokenized. 4- Real estate: The equity of this asset class can be tokenized, much like how REITs function. STOs do not change the underlying securities, instead, it makes these assets more readily accessible on a digital platform. Unlike other digital assets, security tokens can only be traded on certain regulated exchanges. Some exchanges require interested investors to meet some set qualifications. Advantages of STOs STOs are formulated with regulatory-compliance in mind, unlike ordinary token sales. Security tokens provide its owners with several legally binding rights. Some security tokens even bestow its owners with rights to dividends or other defined streams of income. Security tokens are also beneficial to their issuers. From the onset, the entities issuing the tokens are aware that their tokens are being purchased by accredited and verified investors and so, they don’t have to worry about the credibility of their investors. Other advantages of STOs include: 1- It is adequately regulated: Entities issuing security tokens must operate under the guidance of designated regulatory agencies in the region like SECs and FTCs. 2- You can rest assured that STOs won’t falter in the future: Unlike ICOs that cannot be guaranteed, STOs are sure to always deliver because it is properly regulated. 3- STOs offer great convenience: Procuring security tokens is easy, straightforward, and stress-free. All you need to do is to adhere to the STO requirement in your jurisdiction and you’re good to go. 4- It can be programmed: Security tokens are programmable and can be facilitated by smart contracts. 5- Automated dividend disbursement and voting: Some security tokens are structured to send dividends automatically through smart contracts. Also, some security tokens provide the bearer with exclusive voting rights in the affairs of the entity offering the tokens. 6- It is a globally accessible investment vehicle: Investors across the globe can procure security tokens regardless of their location. 7- It is not susceptible to manipulation: Considering the mode of operation STOs are run by, big players cannot manipulate its movements. 8- STOs are very liquid: It is a very promising investment option as it has an impressive liquidity quality and can be traded easily. With benefits like these, STOs are for sure transforming the fundamentals of the financial sphere. Disadvantages of STOs As with every other form of investment, security tokens has its limitations and shortcomings. Some of these limits are: 1- It is considerably more costly than utility tokens: STOs, unlike ICOs, hosts many organizations in their fundraising campaigns. Also, regulatory fees are not cheap which makes it more capital-intensive to host STOs. 2- Investor Qualifications: Countries like the US have certain qualifications an investor has to scale before becoming eligible to engage STOs. According to the SEC to be an “Accredited investor”, you must have an annual income rate of $200k and above or a minimum of $1 million in the bank. 3- Specific trading conditions: STOs can only be traded on certain designated exchanges. Also, these tokens are time-bound meaning that you are allowed to trade these tokens between investors for a set period after the STO. The Howey Test Usually, tokens are said to be securities, by law, when they pass certain thresholds. One such way to identify a security instrument is by applying the “Howey Test”. But first, let’s look at a piece of quick background information on how the Howey test came to be. In 1944, a citrus plantation called the Howey company of Florida leased out a large portion of its land to several investors in a bid to raise funds for much-needed developments. The buyers of the land were not skilled or versed in citrus farming in any way and decided instead to just be “speculators” and let the experts do their jobs. The lease was made on the premise that profits would be generated for the investors by the lessor. Not long after the business transaction the Howey company was sanctioned and accused by the United States SEC of failing to register the sale with the authority. The SEC maintained that the company was dealing with unregistered security. Howey denied the claims however, assuring that what it offered wasn’t a security. After much debate, the case ended up in the Supreme Court, which later ruled in favor of the SEC that Howey’s land leasing were undoubtedly securities. It remarked that investors were purchasing land mainly because they saw an opportunity to make a profit off the deal. Howey was then ordered to register the sale. This was the story of the enactment of the Howey test. Today, per the Howey test, anything is deemed to be a security if it satisfies the following criteria: 1- The investment included money. 2- The investment was made on an enterprise. 3- Profit will be made from the efforts of the providers of the investment. The Howey test has become a stronghold name in the crypto space. In 2017 and 2018 (during the “Heydey boom”), many ICO providers were completely consumed with scaling the Howey test as it was a major determinant used in ascertaining the legality of an ICO by the SEC. Failure to pass the test meant the offering was illegal and was sanctioned by the authorities. Some ICOs even advertised their tokens as investment instruments that had no value, describing their tokens as “utilities” used only for interactions on the platform. The Inception of STOs The very first STO was released by Blockchain Capital on the 10th of April 2017. The release pooled about $10 million in one day. Several STOs have been released following the first event including tZero, Sharespost, Aspen Coin, Quadrant Biosciences, and many more. STOs have since gained widespread acceptance and relevance in today’s market. Understanding the Distinction Between Security Tokens and Tokenized Security Confusing security token for tokenized securities is a common trap that people fall into. The main distinction between the two is that the former is usually a recently issued token that functions on a distributed ledger system while the latter is just a digital manifestation of pre-existing financial instruments. Apart from similarities in appearance and nomenclature, security tokens have absolutely nothing in common with tokenized securities. What Entities are Involved in an STO Issuance? Assuming a business entity plans on issuing security tokens as an embodiment of equity in its establishment, the next necessary step for that business would be to involve certain players and follow certain directives. It has to formally contact an issuance platform to serve as a medium for issuing the tokens. Popular issuance platforms include Polymath and Harbor, which consist of service providers like custodians, broker-dealers, and legal entities to carry out secure processes. Who Can Invest in STOs? STOs are available to the general public for the taking, regardless of location. However, as mentioned previously, the US has certain rules guiding STO investments. In the US, it is mandatory to be an “accredited investor” before you can invest in this instrument. An accredited investor is an individual with an annual cash flow of $200k and above for at least 2 years or a net worth of $1 million and above. More nations are starting to adopt the United States’ classification method and have begun restricting certain classes from investing in STOs. It is advisable to always research on the STO rules and regulations of the jurisdiction you’re planning on investing with. Final Word STOs provide businesses with the prospect of raising funds in an easy and regulated setting. It gives both investors and issuers a good deal of benefits, while also ensuring insurances against fraudulent or malicious practices, unlike ICOs. Issuers are not limited to any industry, they can vary from several sectors including real estate, VC firms, and small and medium enterprises. Moving forward, we will likely witness prominent firms venture into the STOs.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
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    • Good news is my posts no longer seem to need moderator approval! Beginning tomorrow, I will be day-trading two currency pairs: EUR/JPY and GBP/USD. I'll trade during the morning and afternoon hours, New York time.  I'll be using an Oanda "core pricing + commission" account. I plan to trade a "practice account" through the end of January, then a small "live" account beginning February. I've set my charts up to closely resemble the format popular in the RCRT thread (NinjaTrader + MetaTrader). My trading style will primarily consist of what I've learned from that thread. I'll track my performance in terms of R-multiples.  The purpose of this thread is just for a little fun with some bonus accountability. I've got nothing to sell/teach, and I will probably lose money! 😁
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