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naer889

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Hi guys,

 

My dilemma is really the limited time, so I don't want to start analyzing stocks and jump around to find opportunities. I want to trade ideally one instrument an a very short time frame for 60-90 mins per day.

 

 

I know that Db recommends trading the hourly or daily if you can't be in the market at the times when it is most active. This would require larger stops I guess.

I'm not sure what other markets to look at. Maybe the FOREX has volatility in the European evening times. That has really big jumps in price though that can catch you out.

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Why? Well, because I have very limited time available each day and therefore cant look at several different instruments and analyze which one I wann trade. The short time frame, because in this 60-90 mins it is unlikelz to find a setup for a trade on daily or hourly timeframe and I believe I can control my risk much tigther on a shorter time frame (more narrow stops).

 

Well, I don't wanna take trades overnight, so swing trading is not really an option.

 

I suggest you go through the first two steps of Developing a Plan. Then characterize each of the markets that appear to meet your requirements (Appendix E of the SLA/AMT). If you can't find anything that meets your requirements, then you'll have to adjust what you want with what the market is willing to provide.

Edited by DbPhoenix

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with 70% of trades being via computer..algo..hft...etc devoid of emotion could it be getting harder to detect emotion in the herd..?

 

Me thinks i should make haste and short ES around 1897 to 1898 today may 13 around 10.08 a.m. Central.

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A beautiful bird has built a nest over the side door of my house. Now it has three little baby birds and it's all very pleasing to the eyes. There has been a strange side effect though: The bird attacks me every time I want to go through my garage.

 

It comes for my head with screeching sounds and I am forced to run for cover. The nest is around 15 feet away from the garage but somehow the bird has picked me as the mortal enemy. I have been literally forced to hide behind the walls and sneak out of my own house while the bird stalks me.

 

What can I do to make the bird leave me alone? Wyckoff was quite mute when it came to the topic of cohabitation with birds.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=38368&stc=1&d=1401649628

 

Gringo

Alfred-Hitchcock-The-Birds-50-years-anniversary-bird-attack.thumb.jpg.e7d1c4b942a617ea0b521a62f2271296.jpg

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A beautiful bird has built a nest over the side door of my house. Now it has three little baby birds and it's all very pleasing to the eyes. There has been a strange side effect though: The bird attacks me every time I want to go through my garage.

 

It comes for my head with screeching sounds and I am forced to run for cover. The nest is around 15 feet away from the garage but somehow the bird has picked me as the mortal enemy. I have been literally forced to hide behind the walls and sneak out of my own house while the bird stalks me.

 

What can I do to make the bird leave me alone? Wyckoff was quite mute when it came to the topic of cohabitation with birds.

 

Hitchcock at least gave it some thought.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=38368&stc=1&d=1401649628

 

Gringo

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Set its nest on fire. Beaky little bugger. Failing that, the tree in which it nests, or generally resides.

 

Try not to set your house on fire though.

 

We all respond negatively to fire . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

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I am starting this thread to see if there is any interest in discussing Wyckoff's Wave Chart or Tape Reading Chart. I am surprised that there has not been much discussion about Wyckoff's Wave Chart or Tape Reading Chart. It seems that they are the key to learning Tape Reading, "which is the art of determining the immediate course or trend of prices from the action of the market". "It aims to detect the moves that are likely to occur in the next few minutes or hours: getting in when they begin and getting out when they culminate."

 

These are some quotes, not in any particular order, from the Division 1 and Division 2 courses pertaining to the Wave Chart and Tape Reading Chart :

 

"The Wave Chart teaches Tape Reading. After you have used it for a while, you may not need it. Your eye and brain will see and record these happenings that you now are required to plot on the Wave Chart. After you have gone from the first step to the second, you will after a long time begin to develop intuition, by which you will know in an instant when a change in the immediate trend is coming, just as a champion knows how to hit a golf ball, without thinking of all the different motions necessary in doing it correctly. But do not abandon the Wave Chart too quickly and do not expect intuition to come until you have had long experience and much practice.

Now that you have the idea, it depends on the amount of study and practice you put into it. What you see on the Wave Chart is the working out of the law of Supply and Demand. That Chart is a moving picture of a cross section of the market, designed by me for this very purpose — to help you get profits out of trading from the tape. Make the most of your opportunities.

I have decided that the easiest way for me to teach and for you to learn Tape Reading is by means of the Tape Reading Chart which is described below.

 

This Chart combines the three vital factors: Price Movement, Volume and Time in such a way that a trader can see at a glance just what a certain stock is doing; how it acts on the rallies and reactions; the volume of each trade; the progress of the advances and declines; the proportion of the rallies and reactions to previous swings; the lines of supply and demand; the best location for stop orders; the means of deciding when to move stops and how far, etc. This Chart, in fact, combines, on one page, most of the indications required by the Tape Reader.

Tape Reading Chart is really a 1/8-point figure chart, combining volume and price movement, I will proceed with the instructions as to how this chart should be used in actual trading and forecasting.

The market is continually giving information as to its technical position. It does this through the Wave Chart, which forms your background, and forecasts the immediate trend, you get all the little details if you will also keep the Tape Reading Chart.

In short, it provides the means whereby you can substantially

increase the accuracy of your judgment and the timing of your purchases and

sales, enhance your understanding of the market's action at important turning

points and hence your ability to forecast coming changes of trend before they are

already well under way, and it affords an effective means of detecting the critical

points in the market's travel from one level to another.

When you learn to coordinate all of the factors revealed by these records

in combination and use them properly, it will greatly strengthen your judgment.

You will find that, whatever the market does, it will in nearly every instance tell

you what it is going to do — and what the market is going to do is the most

desirable thing to know in Wall Street. Or it will leave you in doubt, and then you

must do nothing.

THE WAVE CHART

The determination of the trend of the whole market is the starting point

of all our deductions and all our Commitments. As explained in Section 5M, this

trend is built up by the alternating small buying and selling waves which follow

each other in endless succession throughout each day's trading. These little

waves merge into medium sized waves and the latter, in turn, merge to make up

the large swings, that is, the movements of 10 to 20 or more points.

Therefore, it is obvious that the market's behavior on the small waves

must afford a very valuable indication of the future intermediate and major

trends. (Sect. 4M, Pg. 27).

One who is a proficient tape reader has an advantage in being able to

watch the market all day long because such a person can study the interplay of

the forces of supply and demand as reflected in the market's action on every one

of these buying and selling waves. That is, he (or she) is able to judge what

measure of success is attending the efforts of the floor and professional trader to

advance or depress prices.

The Wave Chart has the following very important functions:

(1) It enables those who are not in a position to watch the market constantly

throughout each stock exchange session to secure a condensed, easily

understandable record of significant changes in supply and demand. This record

can be studied at leisure, at whatever time is most convenient.

 

(2) It provides an instrument through which you may enlarge your

understanding of the market's behavior at important turning points; develop tape

reading ability if you wish; and acquire the skilled operator's intuition whereby

he frequently senses the turns without conscious reasoning.

(3) It gives certain vital information by means of which you may attain

proficiency in judging turning points in the minor swinger.

(5) In short, it provides the means whereby you can substantially

increase the accuracy of your judgment and the timing of your purchases and

sales, enhance your understanding of the market's action at important turning

points and hence your ability to forecast coming changes of trend before they are

already well under way; and it affords an effective means of detecting the critical

points in the market's travel from one level to another.

Even if you plan to become an active, day to day trader, it is better at

first to learn to analyze the market's tape action from a Wave Chart rather than

from the tape itself. The chart teaches you how to become a sound judge of the

market, for by its use you become familiar with all the elements necessary in

successful trading: judging the lifting power as compared with the pressure; the

market's responsiveness or lack of responsiveness to the rotation of supply and

demand; the speed of the advances and declines as measured by the net price

change and the duration of the buying and selling waves; the character of the

buying and selling as revealed by proportional changes in activity and volume on

advances and declines; and more especially, the changes from strength to weakness, from weakness to strength, and back again.

 

All of these factors are revealed by the Wave Chart. It is the pulse of the

market.

From the above you may judge how vital it is, in the stock market, as in

every other field, to get down to the right principles.

Whenever you study the tape or a chart, consider what you see there

as an expression of the forces that lift and depress prices. Study your charts

not with an eye to comparing the shapes of the formations, but from the

viewpoint of the behavior of the stock; the motives of those who are dominant

in it; and the successes and failures of the buyers and sellers as they struggle

for mastery on every move.

Most of the popular prejudice against charts undoubtedly is due to the fact

that many people mistakenly attempt to use charts mechanically — without

judgment. They endeavor to draw diagrams or imaginary geometrical patterns on

their charts, or apply arbitrary rules or systems such as “oscillators” and other

impractical notions. Such methods are wrong. They lead only to errors, losses

and discouragement. Therefore, you must remember this:- When you study charts

look for the motive behind the action which the chart portrays. Aim to interpret

the behavior of the market and of stocks not the fanciful patterns ("gaps,"

"horns," "flags," "pennants," etc.) which the charts may accidentally form.

One who understands how to interpret charts correctly can usually decide

whether the whole market, or any single stock, or group of stocks, is most likely

to advance, decline or stand still. Every market and every stock is always in a

bullish, bearish or neutral position (Sect. 18M, Pg. 4, Par. 3). The person who

can determine, with a high percentage of accuracy, the position in which the

market, or a group, or a certain stock stands, holds the key to success in trading

and investing.

THE WAVE CHART OF TAPE READINGS was designed and originated by

me, in 1916 in connection with my personal operations in the stock market. It is

made to provide a condensed picture of every vital development in every stock

market session. It gives a graphic representation of the day's tape action which

enables us to study the market's behavior at leisure, just as if we were watching

the ticker continuously and setting down every essential impression.

Thus, the Wave Chart is an invaluable aid whereby we may detect changes

from technical weakness to strength, and vice versa, and so determine the

turning points not only of the minor but also of the intermediate swings,

frequently several days before the indications are given by the less sensitive

popular averages."

 

From: Wall Street Ventures and Adventures Through Forty Years Pgs. 178-79:

 

“In contradiction of those who believe that tape reading is an obsolete practice, I affirm that a knowledge of it is the most valuable equipment a Wall Street trader can possess.

If I were beginning my Wall Street career now, and knew what forty years of it has taught me, I should apply myself first of all to this business of judging and forecasting the stock market by its own action. It is something that requires long study and continuous practice.”

 

It seems to me that the Wave Chart, or an easier modern day application using a ZigZag Indicator on an average like the NQ's, is very important.

 

The principles stated in the old courses are just as true today as they were back then, but

adjusting for the higher prices, bigger price swings, longer sessions, increases in volume and activity, is more difficult. Even though it is made somewhat easier due to computers automatically calculating and plotting the waves, the relevant wave information and using Averages or Indexes that have already been calculated, like the NQ's.

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A breakout and and retracement - for 6 points...

 

PDH seems to hold for now...

 

39447d1426613466t-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-170315_bo_ret.jpg

 

Edit: Off Topic??? What did I miss?

 

I believe, DB said, no charts under 15 minute time frame in that particular thread. He's trying to encourage more people to swing trade, or at least intraday swing, as most people do not have the luxury of actively day trading the entire session.

 

Schaefer

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