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tradingwizzard

To Taper or Not To Taper?

Will they taper in December? (middle of next week)  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. Will they taper in December? (middle of next week)

    • Yes
      3
    • No
      14
    • If Yes, by 10 Bln
      6
    • If Yes, by 20 Bln
      1
    • If no, wait until middle 2014
      1


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We all know that what drive markets now is the upcoming FOMC meeting in the middle of next week and this one is going to be followed by a press conference. Bernanke will use most likely this chance to make a statement for his entire mandate as the Chairman of Federal Reserve and this should be interested to watch.

 

Long story short, what do you say? Will they taper or not in this December? Last jobs data suggests they will, but usd still on the short side when compared with the euro, gbp....Retail Sales this week to be key, I am really looking for the release to be decisive....bigger than the forecast means taper most likely......lower than the forecast then dove Ben in the house.....

 

Any thoughts?

 

First the poll then the answers please ladies and gents.

 

TW

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House of cards balanced on matchsticks.If he leaves with no taper he can claim success.Anything else is a risk,why take it?

Economic no's will be a red herring to distract some from the obvious (to me).These figures are always revised leading to the belief that they're manipulated.

He can say things improving=policy success,fragile recovery,too early to taper.The only spanner in the works with my theory is he has to (always) choose his words extremely carefully.No doubt the insiders have been briefed as usual.

Just give me doubt and volatility please.Anything else is boring.

 

I still like your vote please.

 

Thanks.

 

TW

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I would've liked to see the taper being announced in September... I think it's time, and I don't think a taper would tank the markets. A 15% percent correction would be healthy. In some ways, this easy money policy has been a drag on the real economy and I think the benefits have largely been played out.

 

Whatever the fed does... I've loved trading this nonsense over the past few months... give me doubt, greed and impending peril any day.

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I would've liked to see the taper being announced in September... I think it's time, and I don't think a taper would tank the markets. A 15% percent correction would be healthy. In some ways, this easy money policy has been a drag on the real economy and I think the benefits have largely been played out.

 

Whatever the fed does... I've loved trading this nonsense over the past few months... give me doubt, greed and impending peril any day.

 

I would still like to see your vote on the poll please.....

 

thanks

 

TW

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Tapering will begin when UE rates are at or below 6.5% which might not happen for a while. Who knows if it might not happen at all.

 

If it does happen, then it will be a good thing and not a bad thing; Tapering will occur when economic conditions improve. The fed will no longer stand firmly behind markets as they have in the last few years. So, there will be:

 

growing earnings, flat inflation, rising interest rates, and high stock valuations.

 

Sounds like bull market continuation to me.

 

Your vote selection is too limited.

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for what is worth, I voted yes but really don't know the amount......chatter on the market that the risk is Fed will come with a schedulle for tapering the whole program at the moment the first taper is announced.

 

I watched Bullard on Bloomberg the other days and I was left with the impression they will taper

 

it remains to be seen

 

TW

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moment of thruth here, with 14 votes on NO tapering today and 8 on a tapering, so it remains to be seen........

 

I would say markets (at least currency markets that I trade) are positioned for a tapering today

 

Good luck everyone.

 

TW

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moment of thruth here, with 14 votes on NO tapering today and 8 on a tapering, so it remains to be seen........

 

I would say markets (at least currency markets that I trade) are positioned for a tapering today

 

Good luck everyone.

 

TW

 

What makes you say the bold part?

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The currency pairs I see that moved dollar positive, prior to today, that might be attributed to tapering is AUDUSD and CADUSD. But don't know one way or the other truthfully if taper was the reason.

 

USDJPY not related, EURUSD and GBPUSD were going the other way as well as the inverse USDCHF. NZDUSD flat.

 

So I'd like to know where the signs were taper was being priced in?

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The currency pairs I see that moved dollar positive, prior to today, that might be attributed to tapering is AUDUSD and CADUSD. But don't know one way or the other truthfully if taper was the reason.

 

USDJPY not related, EURUSD and GBPUSD were going the other way as well as the inverse USDCHF. NZDUSD flat.

 

So I'd like to know where the signs were taper was being priced in?

 

just watch markets and ask that question again when eurusd is dealing 1.3580/70 area and then say it was not related......not to mention usdjpy.............so a bit of patience please thank you

 

TW

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just watch markets and ask that question again when eurusd is dealing 1.3580/70 area and then say it was not related......not to mention usdjpy.............so a bit of patience please thank you

 

TW

 

Doesn't make much sense. If it's already priced in that means the announcement wouldn't really affect the price - because it's already priced in.

 

Which means that rather than a down move in EURUSD, you'd expect it to stay the same level or move up.

Edited by Seeker

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