Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

tradingwizzard

To Taper or Not To Taper?

Will they taper in December? (middle of next week)  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. Will they taper in December? (middle of next week)

    • Yes
      3
    • No
      14
    • If Yes, by 10 Bln
      6
    • If Yes, by 20 Bln
      1
    • If no, wait until middle 2014
      1


Recommended Posts

way lower than expected NFP may put the taper on hold for now.....any thoughts?

 

TW

From reading the FOMC minutes, it seems that the FED would like to unwind QE3 in the worst way. I doubt one month that surprises to the downside would change that. I would also question whether moving back to 85B would make any difference in the payroll numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From reading the FOMC minutes, it seems that the FED would like to unwind QE3 in the worst way. I doubt one month that surprises to the downside would change that. I would also question whether moving back to 85B would make any difference in the payroll numbers.

 

no no......the idea is not to move back to 85, but to postpone the next tapering step as the economy is not feeling good

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
no no......the idea is not to move back to 85, but to postpone the next tapering step as the economy is not feeling good

 

TW

That's a little harder call. I still doubt that one month will change things. The NFP number was so freakishly low, I would expect the number to be revised. It doesn't hold with all the other positive data that has come in the past few months. They may delay another reduction to see if the numbers improve, but I doubt it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's a little harder call. I still doubt that one month will change things. The NFP number was so freakishly low, I would expect the number to be revised. It doesn't hold with all the other positive data that has come in the past few months. They may delay another reduction to see if the numbers improve, but I doubt it.

 

just wait to see a couple of more bad news to come until next FOMC meeting and the sentiment will shift in a blink of an eye.....just the other day Yellen said the economy is recovering "painfully" low.......and she's the chairwoman

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's a little harder call. I still doubt that one month will change things. The NFP number was so freakishly low, I would expect the number to be revised. It doesn't hold with all the other positive data that has come in the past few months. They may delay another reduction to see if the numbers improve, but I doubt it.

Agree completely .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
just wait to see a couple of more bad news to come until next FOMC meeting and the sentiment will shift in a blink of an eye.....just the other day Yellen said the economy is recovering "painfully" low.......and she's the chairwoman

 

TW

You may be right about that. My take from the FOMC minutes is that there is a growing consensus that the risks are beginning to outweigh the rewards. If you consider that the FED has not begun to actually unwind their holdings, just a reduction in the rate of purchases... another taper move is not a big deal (my opinion). The FED has stated that they will do the taper in measured moves... certainly leaving it at 75B is within that guidance.

 

Thankfully, my trading style dictates that I only concern myself with what will happen in the next 5 minutes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You may be right about that. My take from the FOMC minutes is that there is a growing consensus that the risks are beginning to outweigh the rewards. If you consider that the FED has not begun to actually unwind their holdings, just a reduction in the rate of purchases... another taper move is not a big deal (my opinion). The FED has stated that they will do the taper in measured moves... certainly leaving it at 75B is within that guidance.

 

Thankfully, my trading style dictates that I only concern myself with what will happen in the next 5 minutes.

 

I agree but backing off one month after starting would be Yellen signalling she's in control now

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
True.

 

But new Fed chiefs don't, initially at least, radically depart from their predecessor's direction.

 

They make their over time.

 

This isn't that complicated.

 

Draghi in Europe did.

 

Carney at BOE changed everything when came.

 

Why not Yellen?

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree but backing off one month after starting would be Yellen signalling she's in control now

 

TW

 

Really... seems to me that she is in control now... no need to beat the breast (so to speak). Honestly... I think she's smarter than that. The FED is going to unwind. I'm sure they will take care of it in a responsible manner. Not to worry... it's going to happen, and everything will fall into place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Really... seems to me that she is in control now... no need to beat the breast (so to speak). Honestly... I think she's smarter than that. The FED is going to unwind. I'm sure they will take care of it in a responsible manner. Not to worry... it's going to happen, and everything will fall into place.

 

alright, I guess we're about to see it pretty soon :)

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Really... seems to me that she is in control now... no need to beat the breast (so to speak). Honestly... I think she's smarter than that. The FED is going to unwind. I'm sure they will take care of it in a responsible manner. Not to worry... it's going to happen, and everything will fall into place.

 

markets trying to force Fed hand......still tapering?......maybe yes, but they will come with some stunt like keeping the rates lower for the next 100 years or so..........and usd will be vanished......this is positioning for fomc already, make no mistake.......

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
markets trying to force Fed hand......still tapering?......maybe yes, but they will come with some stunt like keeping the rates lower for the next 100 years or so..........and usd will be vanished......this is positioning for fomc already, make no mistake.......

 

TW

 

From everything I've read... the market believes that the $10B reduction is a lock. The FED has already stated that interest rates will remain low for some time to come (100 years... don't know... don't care). It's all well within guidance. How the FED unwinds is still up in the air... they don't know as yet. Calm down... wait and see... play it as it comes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The USD is now 1/1250th the value of what it was in 1814. That's an average drop in value of $6.25 a year. The FED has sold off gold at a rate of 66 tons per annum over the same period. At that rate, the US will have sold off 90% of it's reserves in 100 years time. Unfortunately, that's not the case. This past recession time since 2008, they have sold off nearly 1200 tons meaning that there is about 20 years of gold left at the renewed sell-off rate. As it stands now, the US owns about $343,750,000,000 worth of gold at last count. That is about 1/50th of national deficit and cannot save the country from disaster in a crash. Gold is meant to be a hedge against inflation and create a reserve to fall back on. Effectively the amount of gold held by the US is also owned by other countries and one of those is notably Germany. The US holds about $46,875,000,000 worth of German gold. Now that should tell you a lot about how the reserve currency has become a basket case due to financial mismanagement. Unless the price of gold rallies to $5000, the USD is very close to bankruptcy and loss of reserve status.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.... Unless the price of gold rallies to $5000, the USD is very close to bankruptcy and loss of reserve status.

If the U.S. needed $5000 gold it would happen ................. yesterday.

 

Until someone else has a bigger military ain't nothing the gold bugs can do to make it go higher unless the Fed lets it.

 

:doh:

 

Now having said this I realize at one time the Mongols, the Italians and the British and many others had the biggest militaries of their day.

 

One day we will be surpassed. Hasn't happen yet though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so they moved on with another 10 bln and now we're having 65 injected on a monthly basis...the fact that this 2 small reduction in the QE to be the cause for the stocks meltdown?....don't think so

 

what would be the reaction if the NFP goes bad?....actually I am starting a poll about that

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any tapering is laughable...they will increase it more in the future..just wait and see..it will be expanded even more in the near future.

Edited by Patuca

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Any tapering is laughable...they will increase it more in the future..just wait and see..it will be expanded even more in the near future.

 

QE is the Fed's newest tool. In fact, QE is it's only tool that works at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Question: To those that had/have cancer, what were the signs that made you think “something is not right here” to make you go see a doctor? Answer: So, 5/25/2018, I woke up, got ready for work, and as I walked to my car, I started gagging. Like something was stuck in my throat and I needed to clear it. And then it went away.   But 10 minutes after that, I was T-boned at 40mph on the driver side door. But what made me see a doctor was while my muscles felt better and bruises were going away, the gagging still continued, I started having fevers, my neck felt swollen, I was having such a hard time breathing, and I'd have random sharp pains in my chest, but not from where the seat belt saved me.   2 weeks after the accident, I finally see an urgent care doctor, who looks me over, tells me I'm fine, but luckily requests a neck X-ray. And I ask for a chest X-ray, which he rolls his eyes but let me have (most of my pain was in the neck, so I understand).   The very next day, he calls and says “So, that chest X-ray shows there's a 4 inch mass on your heart and lungs, and your lungs have been filling up with fluid, as well as in your pericardial (heart) wall. We need you to come in tomorrow.”   Turns out the big mass, due to the accident, caused my heart and lungs to tear and fill with fluid, the swollen neck and gagging was caused by 2 metastasized tumors, and the fevers and weight loss were symptoms. Stage 4b Hodgkin's Lymphoma.   But thankfully, we went very aggressive with chemo (and had a lot of bad side effects that don't normally happen to patients), and now I'm about 16 months cancer-free. Yay lucky X-rays! Rachel Jurina, Quora Source: https://www.quora.com/To-those-that-had-have-cancer-what-were-the-signs-that-made-you-think-something-is-not-right-here-to-make-you-go-see-a-doctor   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/  
    • As a man, the reality of life is the harshest part. I don’t mind looking older or becoming weaker over time; it’s nature.   Have you ever heard that the only people who will be loved unconditionally are women and children? Men will only be loved as long as they can provide until they are no longer needed. It doesn’t matter if you already did your best to get your kids to the best school or get the best things for them, if you stop before they’re done with it, there will be no thank you. The only thing they will remember is that they have to quit school at 15, ignoring all the previous 15 years of life you provided for them. The only people who will accept you, no matter what, are your parents. But in this situation, you might be that ungrateful child.   EDIT: Wow, I didn’t think this would get so much attention.   For those who disagree, I can only say that everyone has their problem. If you don’t get the chance to face such a thing, be grateful. Remember, sometimes what you throw in the garbage is something that someone wishes ever to have.” – ElZee, Quora   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • The good thing i had noticed so far is that the traderpot value is also on the rise..
    • yup its a gradual rollout the right way in my opinion, its really good and its exciting for the sto in 2027
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.