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Everything posted by smwinc

  1. Exactly. If you actually read some of the ORIGINAL Japanese work (i.e. rather than relying on Steve Nison's interpretations of their work) they do emphasis it. Candlesticks are very 'subtle'. They are designed to describe a scenario, to give more information as to what is going on. They were NEVER designed to be used "separately" of each other. I.e. "this candle is hammer which means the market is definitely strong. Next candle is a doji which means the market is definitely in confusion" etc. Personally, a concept I found interesting was "collapsing" the candles into each other. This was the Japanese way of (basically) seeing the higher-time frame pattern, from the same chart. I.e. collapsing 4-5 candles on a 1 minute, to see what it's looking like on a 5 minute. It is a continued emphasis on group of candles, or patterns, and under emphasis on 'exact candle formation'.
  2. "not as easy as eating pie to get hold in the stock market" :rofl: "you have to be through with the stock details and the ups and downs in the future" - OHHH so that what's what I've been doing wrong all these years. "but also be able to guide you to make a whopping 11 times more than the current return investments" - thank god, because I'd be seriously pissed if it was only 10 times my investments. :o
  3. Reuters (finally) ditched their charting, and now include Metastock as standard for all charts. However I completely agree with you, I only use the chart feature in the most basic sense, like looking at past economic indicator data, etc. Yes - CQG Market Profile is actually surprisingly poor. I have traded with Pats & Ecco, Bloomberg, Reuters and Retail brokers. I have not heard of Platz or GL? Without question, for us prop traders, TT is the best, by far. It's like comparing an electronic trader to a phone broker and asking who is going to be faster. There is no substitute. I would rather trade with no charts and no chair, than not use TT to execute through Downside: They have been slow to add in Asian markets. Hang Seng is only new, JGB is new, etc. Singapore/Taiwan wasn't that long ago either. Also, cost does creep up on you, quickly. Its a one of fee per extra exchange AND additional monthly fee for each exchange. Reuters + CQG + TT means its an achievement breaking even these days :o
  4. You sir, deserve a medal. Amen to that post!
  5. Perhaps I wasn't clear. The example of scaling in was just an example to illustrate you can have many losing trades, and then one winning trade to finish in profit. Often it is much better to "work hard" to get a good entry price, rather than take a trade, and wait. The entire concept of risk to reward assumes you know your risk AND reward to begin with. What I get tired of is day-traders (not so applicable to position traders) choosing trades that fit their minimum risk:reward. Worse is when traders go "OK I can only risk $1,000 / x number of points, so that means my stop is going to be here". I don't like predicting. Guru's and people who can't make money trading, predict and sell software, seminars, etc. Traders trade. It's fine to have scenarios, but it's unwise to make a trading decision before the trade starts. E.g. 1. "market is at 1200. I think we will go to 1250 for XYZ reason." 2. "stop is going to at 1190 for ABC reason and target at 1250. 3.risk:reward = 1:5 = meets my trading plan rules, great!" 4. "money management rules I created state I can risk $1,000 a trade which means I'm putting on XX number of contracts" In reality the above 5 sentences are: 1. -Assumption & another Assumption. 2. -Decision based on an Assumption, another Decision based on an Assumption. 3. - Congratulating yourself based on your ability to make Assumptions 4. - Adding another nail in your coffin by making another Decision based on another Assumption. More Congratulations in order. Do you see the problem here? nothing has happened in the market yet. Better trader: 1. "market is at 1200. I think we MIGHT go to 1250 for XYZ reason." 2. "enter the market. mental stop on price action/fixed stop I always use. No target because I don't know what the market will do, ever." 3. "money management rules indicate I enter all trades with the same size, and add if the (rare) opportunity arises when the MARKET confirms the situation. I will be aggressive and quick to get out the second I am wrong (can always get back in), and will not let the additional size negatively impact the performance of the trade." It really is just a few core differences, limiting decisions based on assumptions, or decisions before an event has occurred. Don't get me wrong, it's not a clear cut issue. A common bad trade is where you go against the major trend of the day for 1-2 tick trade. The trade goes against you slightly, you average in (only ever hoping for 1-2 ticks), and you end up taking a 10 tick loss. That's a good example of keeping your reward in perspective. If for whatever reason, you DO have a Fixed Target, then (for better or worse) you need to trade that way. Everyone makes money differently. Plenty of people fade moves to average in and take a small profit on a large size. I call it a Rubber Band Reward Curve. If you graphed their "reward curve" it's actually increasing as the market moves away from their entry (because their adding into their position) before it hits zero when you have reached your position limit and the market is still not going your way - hence the 'rubber band curve' - and your trade 'snaps'. Personally, I think that suicide. I prefer to dip my toe in the water, and unleash when the trade is going in my favor.
  6. Aight James, sorry with the slow reply man, been busy as a one legged man in an arse-kicking contest. Spoke to rep from ICAP (EBS) - data is price changes only. You can get the actual volume, but you need to be trading through them. Not really a viable option. In my opinion, the better setup is CQG & Reuters 3000 Xtra. I spoke to my "trainer" from Reuters on setting up a few things - they really do have sweet features. Do you still use Reuters? For trading FX, my setup now is: - screens for CQG - screen for Trading Technologies (i.e. your order execution ladders) - screen for Reuters: --> Reuters screen for your fundamentals/news & spot/forward/etc pairs. Real-time & historical volume, T&S with counter-parties, etc.
  7. 200 point rally in the DAX, all my Christmas's are coming at once! That monthly chart is something worth sticking up on your wall. (yes, I am bullish). I've been "collecting" knock-in & deep OTM options. tasty treats all around. Don't get me wrong, the world is still "broken", but these short-squeezing rallies are delicious. NFP this Friday will be interesting.
  8. Risk to Reward is a stat you evaluate in hindsight. You can ESTIMATE your reward, and (generally) fix your risk. In my opinion, risk/reward is completely over emphasised. It is an assumption. The trader who thinks he can fix his risk has never had a stock gap, undergo a trading-hold, your broker/platform/exchange/internet go down, etc. Similar story for win/loss %. Who cares, seriously? Today I had 7 losers in a row, scratching / -1 tick trades. Then I hit a winner, got onto a runner, scaled in aggressively and made a little over +40 ticks. Win to loss at that point in time = 10% winners / 90% losers. The important stats are things like: -Average winner vs average loser -largest winner vs largest loser -distribution of winners/losers above your average (i.e. averages can be misleading, especially if you have a small sample) - Max/average adverse excursion & max/average favorable excursion Am I on my own in thinking this? perhaps worthy of a discussion.
  9. 99% sure it's price changes. I've contacted ICAP (EBS) though to clarify. I'll let you know their response. They publish average volumes monthly, but it's borderline useless as far as trading. Cheers
  10. Possibly the most useful feature of CQG is it's accurate continuation charts. On any futures contract, you can choose from: No Continuation Standard - rollover at expiration Adjusted - rollover N days prior to expiration and/or equalize closes Active - rollover trading activity and optionally equalize closes By month - only use contracts for specified month There is also specific options relating to continuation of bond contracts. Very useful, very easy.
  11. Ok, I was going to post again, but man I give up. This software sounds great.. everyone buy it...etc. :o
  12. James, Myself and a few others in the office use CQG also. Why don't more people use EBS data? I have no idea. I don't know of any other data providers other than CQG who provide it. As far as the spot FX market, mister Ed is correct - EBS can't show 'all' volume for a particular pair, as it's only showing liquidity available through its network. In the spot market, the problem is no one really cares about 'total liquidity', it's 'accessible liquidity' that counts. There is huge numbers thrown around about how much volume is done everyday, but if it's spread across a multitude of networks - OTC, EBS, Reuters D2, etc - it's unlikely anyone is really able to 'access' it for large trades. EBS are the leading network for FX. Previously Reuters D2 were effectively running a monopoly. As you'd understand, certain types of analysis run into real logical flaws with FX - VSA for example. EBS data alone should be sufficient. Depending on what you trade, you might want to get hold of Reuters D2 also. This is starting to become outdated, however the link shows which broker is doing majority of the volume for each currency pair: http://www.londonfx.co.uk/autobrok.html
  13. JPMorgan in Negotiations to Raise Bear Stearns Bid "JPMorgan Chase was in talks on Sunday night for a deal that would quintuple its offer for Bear Stearns, the beleaguered investment bank, in an effort to pacify angry Bear shareholders, according to people involved in the negotiations." http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/24/business/24deal.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
  14. Yes, Ensign is a charting package that allows for replaying of trading data (among other things). Others may have other suggestions, however in my opinion I would ditch the position/swing trading. Is it something that is much easier to move into once you understand how a market works intra day. money management / trading methodology intra day is completely different to position trading/swing trading. It is common to want to make money while you learn to trade, however the blunt reality is that the focus really needs to be on losing money slowly. I would suggest: 1. Work out your goals. What do you want to achieve. e.g. move into a trading position, trade your own capital, etc. 2. Choose a market 3. Practice trading it. Learn everything you can about that market. Ideally a market where, if you are choosing to trade your own capital, something where degrees of leverage are available. E.g. studying the S&P 500. You can trade the SPY minimum size share lot to significantly reduce any chance of blowing your account. When suitable, you can then trade the S&P 500 e-mini contract. The general way people fail in trading is trying to go head-on into it trying to trade too many things, under capitalised & overconfident. Avoid that and you should be fine.
  15. Hello Nick, Nice to see someone wants to actually do a little work for a change. The problem with looking for a longer-term trading approach, is you are greatly reducing your frequency at which will learn at. Let me explain: 3 brand new traders, trade for a year: 1. Tries day trading. 20 trades a day x 250 trading days = 5000 opportunities to learn. 2. Tries EOD trading. 1 trade a day x 250 trading days = 250 opportunities to learn. 3. Tries Position trading. 1 trade a week x 50 trading weeks = 50 opportunities to learn. Statistically it takes around 10 years to master a pursuit. The best way to speed it up is to increase your sampling rate. At the trading firm I work at, the emphasis is just to get new traders trading, on a simulator, as much as possible. Hundreds of trades a day, every day. Developing a feel for the market. Understanding price action. Simply trying anything that comes to mind. Mentally, you are constantly performing 'accept/reject' strategies in your head. I would suggest to focus on day-trading ONE market outside of work hours. Because you are limited for time, you are going to need to 'compress' as much as possible. Dr Brett Steenbarger runs a high quality blog - here is a link to a post with regards to 'practice trading' market data. "Replaying the Trading Day: A Best Practice in Trading" http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/02/replaying-trading-day-best-practice-in.html Hope it helps.
  16. We already are playing the world's number 1 online game ? I engage in a realistic brand of warfare in wildly popular derivative markets. I ally with .. myself .. to complete strategic profitable missions. Take out retail traders. Rescue my losing trades. My role affects my firm's success. My firm's success affects my role.
  17. No. I have never met a profitable trader who uses ANY kind of paid service. 2,500 dollars. Gotta be kidding me. I love this part - "30-day money back guarantee [minus US $250 support fee]". Love it. Let's read some of the fine print. All trading services have the normal disclosure statements e.g. past performance not indicative of future results, etc. A few good quotes from their fine frint: "All trades shown on this web site are hypothetical, they were not executed. There are just shown for illustration and training purposes only." ..... Ok then? "Unlike an actual performance track record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact of certain market factors, such as the lack of liquidity. Simulated training programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight." "No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profitable trades similar to those shown." Hrm. --- Sorry I had to add one more. If it was me designing botch software, I would at least make sure I kept my fake "customer feedback" sounding accurate. Look at this one: ".... I bought 1 emini at 829.25 with a stop of 826, and exited at 840! Thats $537,50 in my very first trade using the RT scanner! So thank you, In my very first trade using the RT scanner, I paid it off!" 840-829.25 = 10.75 * $50 point = $537.50. So we confirm they are definitely talking about the S&P Emini. .. They bought at 829.25? The S&P E-mini has only ever spent 3 days trading below 829, back in OCTOBER 2002. Which became the DEAD low for the beginning of the Bull Market starting in October 2002. I'm assuming he got short at 1 November 2007 right? What a joke.
  18. Yes - I think a regular Friday after the close will be beneficial. The week will be fresh in peoples minds, etc.
  19. Sledge, I wouldn't trust retail brokers as far as I could throw them, however that flyer is 100% fake (although pretty amusing).
  20. You learn to drive by driving. You learn to swim by swimming. You learn to trade by trading. Go to any professional trading firm, and their training program will broadly consist of 10% theory / trading setups / etc and 90% live trading. The time to sit down and analyse is when you are analysing your own trading results. Use all other outlets (forums, books, etc.) as a means to bounce ideas, learn new things, etc. to compliment your actual trading.
  21. Sledge, Millard is talking about the real Spot FX market, not Market-Making brokers like FXCM, interbank FX, etc. The Spot FX market is able to be traded through Reuters D2 or EBS (the two largest facilitators). EBS / Reuters D2 are designed for institutional clients. Brownsfan, I would highly suggest trading the FX futures on the Globex as others suggested. Depending on how you trade, I would also recommend getting the real cash data from EBS.
  22. Key will be if BOE or ECB do anything, or if we get any government intervening in their currency movements. Traders already know the Fed is their bitch; we will soon see how other's start to react.
  23. This is interesting. The Market Psychology section has had a few more posts recently than average. We have had extreme days in an already extremely volatile market lately. Friday 14th was a very big day. In 5 years of trading, Friday was the best day I have ever had, period. Friday, let alone the entire week, has truly been a gift as far as volatility. We all trade differently, but something that applies to all of us is in these volatile days/week/months, you have to: - analyse the market without bias - analyse how YOU are behaving - analyse how you think OR can see (if you trade with others) are behaving We have continued to see the big moves and relative highs/lows for the day occur before the start of the US day session OR right near the open. I can't stress enough how useful it is to follow and understand the European markets. Let's take a step back and look broadly at the last week. Many big traders put positions on around the time the fed announced the $200 billion in 28-day Term Securities Lending Facilities (March 11th). After a few minor pushes higher, on the 13th March it retraced back to the areas where those original long positions were initiated. This is a standard pattern you see over and over again. Government intervention causes a move, we retrace it, and bounce off it. Longs were still happy to be long. March 14th - This is where it got interesting. Things did NOT go like a few people I know of expected. The Bear Stearns rumours were already out, and the market was not looking that great, and you're stuck LONG a few 1000 contracts. Before the news release on Friday, we had NOT seen any big selling yet, in fact we saw buying come in on tests of lows in the European markets before the CPI figures. This was a great opportunity to take a long position with size. This good news release was the last opportunity to get OUT of big long positions. By the time the US opened, institutional longs had already been liquidated, and the free-fall occurred basically because no one was there to step in. As a day trader, in the long run day to day you are making your bread and butter. Recently we have been extremely lucky and been given multiple "home run" days. When you have fundamental events, they give you an opportunity to hit a move with size and confidence. Take the time to analyse how you traded and hit it hard next week. We ALL pay the price of education multiple times throughout our trading career. SMW
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