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Everything posted by smwinc

  1. smwinc

    New Member

    Yes. Haven't traded much this morning. 25 trades. I'm going to get some sleep shortly before the ES open. Currently long @ 8012, as at 6:43. I might change my opinion, but for the moment I think we're just accumulating. Do you trade US also, or just DAX?
  2. smwinc

    New Member

    Hi James, Key reasons: -Trading with others around (social / support aspect) -Access to more equity -Cheaper commissions and to be completely honest: -Little 'wary' of ending my 'working life' to trade at home (I'm reasonably young). Cheers SMW
  3. FYI - Going to be in the chat again tonight, be good to see a few in there?
  4. I do yes, but I think my situation is slightly different because of my timezone. I'm in Australia, so I can monitor the trade throughout my day (US session night). This helps with the emotional side of things.
  5. Apologies, I've been flying out of the state recently, haven't traded since mid last week. I'm on a laptop in a hotel lobby at the moment. I would also be keen to make the chat a regular thing - I'll be in there this week.
  6. How hard is it to get a full day's work out of you guys? Everyone left at 11:00! :o Was good stuff guys, you have a good group of people on this forum. A trading forum where there are actual traders is as a common as hen's teeth. SMW
  7. I apologise, perhaps my point wasn't clear. When you talk about a market range trading, or trending, it doesn't make sense unless we give a little more imformation. I'm not trying to be picky or pull on little details here- it completely depends on your trading timeframe. If you execute typically off a 1 minute timeframe / 5 minute anchor you can be trading the (intraday) trend, while the guy next to you is trading off a 60minute, trading the same market as a box ('range') play. Some people will see the chart you mentioned above as a range bound day. Others may sell the open, cover at lunch and "count" it as a trending day. On their own, 'range' and 'trending' don't give enough information. We all have completely different trading styles, and view things differently. As an example, I'm generally quite short-term in the DAX. This morning I made 142 round-turns in the DAX futures. That's not good or bad, it's just my method, and my way of seeing things. The point I was trying to make about about some of the strategies institutions use, is that (I think) it's important to remember (and apply it when necessary) that the logic and reasoning for why many enter and exit trades, may often work and produce profits, but for 'many' methods, its not a cause and effect. I.e. If your strategy is: Sell when x line crosses over y line, it might work great, but no ones going to argue the 'crossing of the lines' caused price to move in your direction. Or Sell when "supply" (however you measure it) exceeds "demand (again, however you measure it), this is arguably a much more X causes Y relationship. Price really WILL move down if your analysis is true, if supply really does overtake demand. Why do fading range breakouts often make a good trade? Some might say: Because Average Joe puts his stop above/below prior highs/lows, Smart money moves the market enough to hit the stops, get that inflow of liquidity to close out their current positions, and reverse the market. Just because fading a range 'often' works, everyone knows of times when we DON'T want to do that. It's about just remembering the logic behind why your strategy works, and knowing when it doesn't apply. Big institutions aren't anything special - they are just focusing on volume and liquidity, just as many other individuals like you and me are doing. The example I gave about them front running another bank, is exactly what many people do when listening to Pit Audio. You hear Goldman is buying, so naturally you join them, and ride the trade. That information and understanding is an edge - if your strategy is an MA cross-over, it might not know yet that Goldman is standing in the big S&P Pit trying to buy. Often the 'best' trades are when the market does something different. We all have bread and butter trades in whatever method we trade in, but (in my opinion) having the understanding to be dynamic, to notice when the standard things don't apply and adapt, can not only save you getting your head ripped off, but also give you those 'big fish' trades. SMW
  8. I spoke with Todd in person a few months ago. He is no longer affiliated with TradeGuider. With regards to the other questions, I have not used TG and can't comment on it. SMW
  9. Apologies for the long post here-- Trending and Ranges is completely in the eye of the beholder. Timeframe, price range, etc. I don't think it's worthy of a lengthy discussion about it? If we just look at the most commonly traded US E-mini Index Futures; we all know how important the big money is. The 'institutions' as a group - hedge funds, banks, large proprietary houses - without doubt do not trade a 'trend' system, or a 'range' system. They are (broadly) using (not limited to) quant. models, directional-based, event-based, marcro-economic, long/short, stat. arb, etc. From what I've read of this forum, the calibre of the general forum community know this already. I think its too easy to get 'caught up' in the world of "little guy" trading. We all have particular ways of getting into and exiting the market - OEC just mentioned plenty. In my humble view, whatever you trade in whatever way, just understand that. Make it your world - Trade what you see, understand and have experience in. Avoid trying to put things into categories. as an example, an experience that stuck in my mind: I remember working with a bank a while back, with an FX desk. They were predominantly proprietary, but their core function included managing risk / exposure for the bank's currency risk, forward positions, sales trades, etc. As far as size, not uncommon to see the desk execute trades at the 100mln Euros level. Most people have heard of front-running, or have seen it in the markets. I remember the head of the desk explaining, when they had "nothing better to do" they might see a rival bank come in to buy. Not only do they know they bank (they can see the counterparty), they know the guys working in the bank. Similar to seeing Goldman step up to buy in the S&P Pits, but often even more personal. They can usually take a good guess of if it will be a big or small trade. Even if they had a short bias, they will buy up big-time to front run the other bank, before flipping it once the other bank's stopped buying. The other (really amusing) scenario is when the other bank already anticipated this, and never actually wanted to buy in the first place, and reverses short at 10x the size. Anyway.. The point is - - these guys could not care LESS whether we just made a higher lower, etc. It's about knowing your market, and who trades it, and how. I think a good general 'rule' to new traders would be: imagine asking your query, or telling your 'market information' to someone like the guys detailed above. In my opinion: Range bound markets, trending markets, etc -- no. demand and supply, liquidity, "real" price action -- yes. There are endless setups out there, but many of them (or the ones that actually work, anyway) boil down to very very similar, core concepts. So when we try and design a trading style, system or methodology - it needs to start with a) Your market b) apply core concepts to it. SMW
  10. Quick Note-- Just posting my intro Trade DAX, ES. Situated in Australia. Currently making the transition from working full-time (finance) and trading my own equity, to move into a proprietary trading firm. Soultrader - nice forum, great diversity - hats off to creating something like this in your spare time. Cheers, SMW
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