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smwinc

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Everything posted by smwinc

  1. smwinc

    Anyone Knows GBPCHF?

    I've not tried doing this in practice, but to mitigate the affects of the spread, you could consider creating your own GBP/CHF through the GBP futures and CHF futures on the GLOBEX - simultaneously buy (sell) the GBP futures & sell (buy) the CHF futures.
  2. Man, it shows that you watch John Carters videos. I was sitting here thinking "this sounds familiar..." John's Video: http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=7om2x&m=1fCVjdJ.zDN95r&b=T_KIFgpEANM9ErQvKhM0Qw
  3. Yes, if you're still progressing with your learning as a trader, the last thing you want to do is increase your variable/fixed costs. Let's be real here. Imagine you were jumping out of an aeroplane tomorrow, and you're buying your parachute gear today. Do you go to Wall-Mart, and buy the cheapest brand, super-basic, 'generally works' parachute gear? Or do you get the worlds best, most reliable, safe as possible, gear? I use TT & CQG. They are both expensive, but I can 100% rely on them. If something goes wrong, I can call someone who knows me personally, to fix it, NOW. $2,000 / month is a lot of money, but keep it in perspective. It's less than the median salary in many countries. If you are an experienced trader, and making less than the median salary, something is wrong here. Last night was a very nice day in the markets. I have a backup account with TransAct Futures, and received an email that they were having data outages right on the US Session open. I was notified 42 minutes later (to be exact) that the TransAct data issues were resolved. In the space of those 42 minutes, we had a 15 point move up off the open in the S&P e-mini. On 10 contracts, you just paid for nearly 4 months worth of data fees with CQG. Or worse, if you were trading with TransAct data, think about how much you might have lost if you were in a position. I rarely use anything sophisticated in CQG - I'm paying for reliability. Like any business, if you are always trying to cut costs, and choose the cheapest option, it WILL come back to bite you.
  4. Exactly. It is much easier to predict the next 10 seconds than the next day. If I had to recommend ONE thing to new traders, they need to understand this. SMW
  5. Correct, sorry I should have been more specific. The difficulty with the DAX following the ESTX50 is that many people are too slow to implement it. I trade through a fixed leased line to the Eurex, but I'm still never going to be faster than a local. Anyone trading out of Europe is looking at around 300 millisecond delay on a good fast connection through TT. Worse, if you're a retail trader trading through your own internet PC at home with any common broker, you literally will be trying to hit prices that are no longer there. I execute through TT, and have ladders for ESTX50, DAX, Bund, EUR futures / Pound Futures, S&P and the FTSE. Something a little different, but I watch thinner (closed) markets like the night Nikkei. If a move is a fundamental 'shift' in the direction, you'll see the bids/offers flow into closed Asian markets as they are arbed up/down. When it's just locals in the DAX running stops, it's unlikely you will see any confirmation from other less-related markets. SMW
  6. Actually, you are able to obtain spot/forward FX volume. The reality is it's irrelevant for the majority of traders, let alone retail traders. EBS (who is now owned by ICAP) is the dominant force for the major currency pairs, followed by Reuters D2. There are always big numbers thrown around with regards to FX liquidity, however anyone who actually TRADES the spot will tell you their is a big difference between total liquidity and accessible liquidity.
  7. Managing OPM is a very messy, competitive business - ignoring the attracting funds to manage part, you have significant regulatory requirements to meet before hand. I chose to trade for a firm instead of this route. At the most basic level, assuming you are a trader, I fail to see why you would want to take a 3% fee for the money you are managing, compared to 50%-90% cut of your own trading profits, using a firm's capital. The decision really comes down to your own goals and trading style. A good friend of mine IS establishing a fund. Again, at the most basic level his reasoning: - He is legally qualified from his prior background to manage money. - His trading approach is a specific, low beta approach. - He does not have any interest (or ability) to day-trade/short-term position trade. If you do the math, assuming your trading style is scalable for a fund and also would be supported at a prop. firm (i.e. Not just being long/short positions for months) the point at which it is better to earn < 10% return on X dollars, compared with > 50% return on Y dollars is a LOT of dollars. X needs to be at a minimum 5:1 greater than Y. The question becomes what is easier for you - gaining access to 1,000,000 equity at a firm, or being given 5,000,000 to manage. I would argue that being a successful trader is much simpler, but much harder. You can literally travel the world without a resume / CV, just your track-record. You are a licence to print cash for ANY firm. SMW
  8. Straight up. If you're a DAX trader and actually want half a chance of making money, use Trading Technologies. These guys are the best, period.
  9. Nice James. Even if you ignore the predictions, many of the FACTS blow your mind.
  10. Price action is "it". Everything else is secondary. Sounds simple, but its ridiculous how often it's forgotten. PPM - Price Pays Me. A rally on weak volume with no interest from buyers that hits resistance left right and center is STILL a rally that pays you if you were long, and gives you a loss if you were short. Studying anything - VSA, tape reading, etc. - needs to be referenced in context to which MARKET we are talking about. When you read the tape, you are analysing what other traders have DONE. When you study the depth of market, you are studying what you THINK traders are ABOUT to do. These are two different things, and are specific to different markets. Example: The SGX Nikkei futures are very technical, but in my opinion useless as far as reading price action. You are trying to read the price action of Spreaders and funds Arbing the OSE-Nikkei. The DAX has every man and his dog trading it - retail guys across Europe and America, big funds, automatic trading, the lot. In my opinion, it is a very good candidate for reading price action. I like to know my S&R levels, and then "live in the depth" of that market, and glance at the chart occassionally. In the prop firm I work at, we do 10-20% of the volume in a particular futures market. This is my bread & butter market - if I am reading the depth of the market as I trade, I'm trading the other guys in the same ROOM as me. Clearly this changes the way you would trade a market. Price action is king across all markets, because it's the only thing that pays you. However, you can't take the same 'rules' you apply to one market, and apply it to others. Master one market to trade, but in doing so, study the price action of all the markets that are relevant to it. Nothing moves in a vacuum, and often whichever market was leading yesterday, might not be leading today. You can do it with charts or Price Ladders, but you want to see the flow of money across interrelated markets. It's like driving a car - when you are accelerating to take over someone on the highway, you have a smooth action - indicate, pull into the other lane, hit the accelerator to raise revolutions as you move your hand to the stick-shift, hit the clutch as you change gears and continue accelerating. You might be sitting there trading Singapore, not much is going on. Hang Seng starts to lift bids with size, Jap Gov Bonds are coming off which sends the Nikkei up. The Aussie SPI & Taiwan are taking notice - that might happen in less than 10 seconds. You want to be hitting bids pronto. At the end of the day, trading is a career, a business, a sport to some. It's not a simple activity. To consistently profit day in day out, you need to learn how to learn. Be dynamic. You don't want to be a jack of all markets, but you don't want to be a master with one tool either. DBPhoenix, I enjoyed your preface - Nice clean charts. SMW
  11. Hello, Anyone out there use CQG as their primary charting application? Currently switching over to it in the office. It is heavily used institutionally, but I can't seem to find much of a community as far as examples where the API has been used, custom indicators, etc. Interested in other's opinions of the software. We are switching over from predominantly using Esignal. CQG has the premium data quality and reliability, but you pay premium for it. SMW
  12. Just a heads up with Ensign, I believe for FXCM data it plots the mid point between bid and ask on the chart. It seems most software does it differently. With the volume, remember that it's the change in ticks, not "real" forex volume. I don't know of any retail brokers who have real (reliable) volume for the forex markets. SMW
  13. Let me preface this with I am a big fan of candlesticks and using them for trading. However, to add value, please suggest entry prices with your analysis, or, how you personally would use them to place or manage existing trades. It is very easy to get caught analysing 'after the fact' with candlesticks. Right now we are trading at 1322 in the S&P E-mini March contract. If you had taken a long position the moment those screen shots were taken, it would be an entry of 1335-1340, with a current Max. Adverse Excursion of 13 - 18 points.
  14. Ensign with the FXCM data feed works fine. Smooth with good historical data. All currencies crosses I can think of are available. All chart types are available. I.e. Range bars, Volume bars, Time charts, Tick Charts. I have used Ensign for a few years now. I have a friend who has used it for over 10 years. I am not affiliated with them nor know the creators personally. Howard (the creator) is a great guy, and available to answer emails and the phone. It is VERY rare to be able to contact the programmer of your software when you have a problem on the phone. These guys are the real deal. Updates every day, regular tutorials in the chat sessions, very flexible programming language (the "DYO" and ESPL language) and very low CPU usage, interfaces with a wide range of data feeds. I have used both Esignal and CQG. Without doubt, Ensign IS more powerful than both of them. I have workspaces with 20 + symbols (charts), custom studies, etc. If you are after sophisticated and flexible charting, then it's Ensign. If you have specific questions feel free to send me a PM.
  15. Our entire office has been filled with us yelling, banging mouses, tables, kicking chairs, etc. There were guys coming in for interviews as we are there screaming every type of swear word that comes to mind. Bring your A-Game.
  16. Wow, clearly they want to increase the Number of traders going broke/minute rate in the FOREX market. Excellent. If they bring in Mortal Kombat, and I'm able to crank out some Fatalities on the USD, I'm a buyer for sure. What's next? A dance mat for scalpers? A gun to "shoot the chart" where you want to enter and exit? Something I did think that would a nice balance between (possible) performance improvement and ease/comfort of use: http://www.microsoft.com/surface/ Currently I trade 99.5% with one hand (mouse). Imagine the options with the surface + "chart touch" entry. SMW
  17. 3rd request for the unread posts feature, that's a staple . SMW
  18. smwinc

    What to trade?

    Depends on what you like to trade. Check out the DAX, or the Bund (GBL). I trade the DAX, but am exploring moving into the Bund (GBL) this year. If you are used to trading the US markets, the DAX should feel relatively familiar to you. As Namstrader mentioned, in the short-term there is often a strong (positive) relationship to US equities. In scalping the DAX, I trade from 3:00EST onwards. The DAX opens at 2:00EST, and has to digest what has happened since 16:00EST the previous day. I like to see a range develop, before moving in at 3:00EST on the normal open. I find it useful to keep an eye on: ES, ESTX50, US Treasury Bonds, Bund (GBL), EUR/USD, JPY/USD. I'm only ever after a few ticks, so it is mainly price action off S&R. If you don't like the DAX, look into the Bund. The common reasons someone wouldn't like trading the DAX (spread, liquidity, ease of manipulation) are mitigated in the Bund. Unless your Warren Buffet, you shouldn't struggle with liquidity in the Bund. Finally, just remember to check out the contract specifications and really take the time to watch how they move. Both of these markets can absolutely blow your head off if you're not careful. SMW
  19. There are plenty of successful people who make 7 figures trading, year in year out. I read that same article about those traders. I basically didn't like that firms 'nominated' traders. These guys are no doubt exceptional, but there idea it's a 'top list' is a marketing ploy. IMO, someone who should have been on that list, at the top, was Paul Rotter. 4,000 lots in the DAX is huge, yes. However, Paul Rotter doing 200-300,000 round turns a day blows this guy out of the water. http://www.trading-naked.com/paul_rotter.htm (TraderDaily Interview) "the mercurial Rotter is a hugely successful trader. Though he wouldn’t confirm any compensation figure beyond saying that he takes in more than $5million per year, some say he pulls down at least that much per month."
  20. smwinc

    Roll call

    Anyone else trading today? I'll admit I'm a little surprised so far with the volume in the ES, a little more than expected. Still very light ofcourse. Interested to see how things turn out. SMW
  21. Completely agreed. You will drive yourself spare trying to help those who don't want to be helped. SMW
  22. Remember though that if you trade currency futures, you are not dealing with the (ridiculous) spread in the FX cash market. I think the original post asks a key question to intraday traders: "Regardless of your trading strategy, is it more profitable to have a small (relative to ATR or average swings in your market) fixed target in the long run?" I would suggest there is two solutions, one for new traders, one for experienced traders: Experienced Traders: Analyse your own trading history. Assuming you have a meaniful sample size, do the hard-work and test whether you would be better off quiting each trading day after you reached X dollar or point target. There is NO BETTER trading book out there than your own trading log. You have the luxury of having your own data to analyse. There is really no need to 'what if I did X Y Z' - just test it out? New Traders: Assuming you're trading your own equity, then use a fixed target, with the expectation of achieveing a reasonable amount of profit, to build your account size to a level where your Risk of Ruin approaches 0. I.e. Making an assumption that the reality for the majority of new traders is they are suffering from low equity, and need to "Survive their own learning curve" (kudos to Brett for that phrase). HOWEVER, this is the 'catch', or my footnote: Once you make your target, you PAPERtrade the rest of the session. I firmly believe that if you took two brand new traders, both had targets of 1 point in the ES: Trader A makes his 1 point, and then remains at the computer, and papertraders the rest of the session. Trader B makes his 1 point, and then switches off the market. All else being equal, I'd back Trader A like my life depended on it. Trading is about being a student of the markets. If you quit class everyday sometimes in the morning, sometimes in the afternoon - do you REALLY think it makes sense you should be as good, let alone better, than the student who is there day in day out until the bell rings? I think this question is good. There was a great quote from a trader who I can't remember the name of, on being a successful trader: "Do what all the other loser's aren't willing to do". 'Losers' don't like to be conservative or consistent, don't want to do much work, and need (sadly, it really is a 'need', not always a 'want') to make an abnormal amount of money immediately. I like this concept because of it's 'conservative, consistent' principle. However, I don't like the option it leaves for doing a whole lot less work. I would prefer to apply the same principles of being conservative and consistent, but at an individual trade level. I had to reiterate what someone else said up above - the market doesn't even know, let alone care, how much money you made/lost on this trade or for the hour/day/week/month. Imposing any kind of limit on functions of your Profit/Loss ONLY makes sense if the reasoning is derived from your OWN trading results. SMW
  23. Happy Holidays - All the best for 2008 ! -SMW
  24. smwinc

    New Member

    Yes. With regards to volume, I tend to watch the ESTX50, DAX, ES and EUR together. Helps me not lose the plot. Completely agree about expiration causing problems. Good hit of economic news pre-market should spice things up later on. I'm in the chatroom if you're going to be hanging around. SMW
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