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tradingwizzard

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by tradingwizzard

  5. Posted

    If you are bullish on the US economy this USD dip over the past 2 weeks is probably the biggest opportunity in months. If you can hold it... Once the data snapback starts in the next 6 weeks it will probably take about 3-4 blowout beat prints for it to be obvious that the US economy didnt suddenly fall off a cliff. Then the panic USD buying and treasury selling will set in.

     

    I'm bullish all right but not on the US dollar......make no mistake please

     

    TW

  6. Posted

    Hi All,

     

    I need help on position sizing. Please help.

     

    I understand most of the things about position sizing. But I am having troublew understanding how to use for example 1% per trade.

     

    Ex. If i have 100k 1% is 1000, So if I bought a stock for 40000. What do I do with the 60k if I want to take another position ? Do I risk 1% of 60k of the original 100k?

     

    Question 2: When do I adjust my capitial if I have a drwadown ofd 10%? Do I still use 1% of 100k? of the drawdown point of 90K?

     

    Help plesae thank you . Good trading all

     

    good advice on the previous post and also try to understand that the equity is the most important one....this is misleading all the time

     

    TW

  7. Posted

    We tend to focus more on the short and intermediate term (daily chart and weekly chart), but there are a lot of important things that happen in the long term time frame (monthly chart).

    I made a zoom in the previous chart to select the period between 2000 and 2014.

    In this way is more visible the drop to test the red resistance line that I hope will happen in the next months.

    But I remain optimistic that we are in a secular bull market (a secular market refers to a market trend that persists over decades. The confirmation of the secular bull market happened last year when the S&P 500 Index broke out the monthly resistance line) and eventually we will see the S&P 500 with a much higher value than now in the following years.

    That said, my expectation is that my first positions in portfolio are going to be short positions with inverse leveraged ETFs.

    But for the moment I am on the outside and I am awaiting the sell signal of consensus of my short term technical indicators.

     

    gcLq4qf.png

     

    hmm...is daily and weekly time frame short and intermediate term?

     

    TW

  8. Posted

    All nonsense.

     

    Institutions get their asses handed to them just as the small trader or investor does.

     

    The market is not out to get us. No one is pulling our strings. We can't do the opposite of what our gut is telling you because our gut is frequently already telling us to do the opposite of what the brain is telling us to do. In which case if your brain is telling you that this is an epic scam by institutions, then it isn't one

     

    quite a twist I may say

     

    TW

  9. Posted

    As I have wrote on several occasions in the last years, my guess about what is happening is that the S&P 500 since 2000 is following a similar path to the one taken between 1968 and 1984.

    In the following monthly chart we were able to see that S&P 500 broke the resistance line last year and is now above the resistance line. Now, what is going to happen next?

    When I look back at the path between 1968 and 1984 I think that is missing the S&P 500 fall to test the resistance line (set for the time being at the 1585), as in the past.

    This is not obligatory, but I think that the picture becomes more complete with the resistance line test.

    or9SFsi.png

     

    hi there,

     

    the chart you show there is quite bullish in terms of Elliott waves structure as it seems the prior swing is an irregular flat and the move higher now is already being part of an impulsive move....like you said, testing the trend line is not mandatory, but if it does it only comes to confirm the pattern

     

    TW

  11. Posted

    Hi There Everyone!

     

    I've dabbled in day trading stocks, options, and even the forex off and on for a while now, and have never met with any real success.

     

    What I'm hoping to learn here is consistency and discipline to build a smart automated trading platform.. Looking for trades to capitalize on over a week to a few months. I want to combine my love of programming and make some serious cash on the markets. Daunting analytically programs come natural to me, so if you've got a winning strategy, I'm the guy who can implement it.

     

    About Me: This isn't my first go round with predictive algorithm software. This past season in the NFL, I built and maintained a predictive program that picked winning NFL teams called fantasy mainframe. The software would participate in cash salary leagues, and had a winning percentage of over 70%. The point is not to brag, but to look at the possibility of doing something similar with stocks. The NFL program looked at players on an individual basis and compared them with upcoming opponents, and then would rank them accordingly. I believe the same principles could be applied to stocks and options. A program would be more thorough and faster than it's human counterparts. I'm just not sure what disciplines or what to build into a program to make it effective - which is where partnering with you folks would come into play ;)

     

    I don't have a tremendous bank roll, but should have enough to get started. In total, I have about $14k at play in the stock market. Prior to testing it live, I'd like to use a dummy account on any stuff we were to develop. Any tips that could point me in the right direction could be very helpful - stuff like books to ready, strategies you recommend, forum posts to follow up on, etc. Anyone who is interested in maybe teaming up can post here or email me at fantasymainframe at gmail dot com.

     

    TIA! Jeff :)

     

    Hi Jeff and welcome,

     

    I am sure you will find here a lot of useful stuff.

     

    TW

  12. Posted

    So we have something near 1.378x (weekly close)...and 1.383x very high volume area non retraced. It's not going there 100% of the time, but that's the area i'll closely monitor for big shorts.

     

    Then i don't know, maybe near 1.41xx/1.42xx daily for some shorts if it breaks 1.40....

     

    I would rather say we're in for a correction now towards 1.3650/20 area before a pop higher

     

    TW

  13. Posted

    The markets find themselves near all time highs once again, just two weeks after it appeared the sky was falling. So what gives? Is the market headed for another 30% move higher in 2014 or is there an epic collapse on the horizon? All signs point to a classic scam by large institutions to lure the small investor into the market prior to a 2007 type fall later this year and in 2015.

     

    The media and analysts have piled back on the buy-the-dip commentary. Investors are pushing more capital into the markets every day, in many cases they are borrowing money to do it. The use of margin is at all time highs. The last time it was at all time highs was in 2007, prior to the financial collapse. History tells the truth and ultimately there are far too many similarities to ignore. For the record, the similarities not only mimic 2007 and 2000 prior to the epic drops but also going back as far as 1929. Many 'experts' and media commentators are saying there will be no collapse. Considering they are manipulated by the big banks...of course they would say that.

     

    First, it is important to understand the game that is played. Large institutions use emotion to take money from the smaller investors. There are 90 million Americans that invest and less than 1% avoid being caught in this game. How does it work? Using the media and analysts along with the stock market moves, they pull the strings of investors to get them in and out when they wish. That means getting them to buy at the highs on a market and getting them to sell at the lows. Have you ever wondered why everytime you enter a stock it seems you are on the wrong side? That is the game being played on a minor scale.

     

    How do you avoid the game? Simply do the opposite of what your 'gut' is telling you. If you feel like you should buy the market? Stay in cash or short it. If you are extremely scared, too scared to buy the market...then buy it. If the media is pumping Twitter (TWTR) like crazy at $75 (like they did a few months ago), short it. If the media and analysts are trashing a stock, buy it. A great example was when J.C Penny fell just a few weeks ago to $5.00. The media was trashing it and many gurus were saying it was going to '$1.00'. Yet here it sits with a 20%+ gain at $6.10. This works so well it is almost scary.

     

    Why do the institutions do this? Simply put, it is to profit. It all comes down to the mighty Dollar. When the markets or a stocks get too extended, the big players need to get out. By hyping those stocks, they lure the small investors into the market and can sell right to them. Once the institutions unload, the markets fall and the small investor loses their money. When low enough, the fear hype will reach a level that causes 'long term investors' to sell their positions right to the institutions. Once this happens, the markets can go higher again.

     

    This latest rally and bullish sentiment in the media and analysts is just a way for the big institutions to get you in the market before the drop it. Read the signals and think logically.

     

    Gareth Soloway

     

    quite an interesting approach and I like the most the part with doing the exact opposite of what you think....in the end there are still 50% chances to be right...right?

     

    TW

  15. Posted

    A friend. Ralph Shell. Met him about 6 years ago. His Son in Law , and partner have over 41K Forex IB accts.

    You can sign up for his blog here: CASH BACK FOREX REBATES | WE BEAT ANY COMPETITOR RATES!

    It's free.

     

    Short Bio: His graduate studies were in economics and history at Duke University. Shell has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets. He is also a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Shell was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years. Shell is now located in Palm Beach County Florida.

     

    I'm speechless....

     

    TW

  16. Posted

    LOL... I was referring to the SKYPE room referenced by avir4tg and not the Super Secret Super Profitable Special room that can control and manipulate the ES markets with only a 100 users... LOL

     

    Thanks for the reply

     

    dwt

     

    :)....I still the answer applies for that case too :)

     

    TW

  18. Posted

    I would agree... "the taper" makes no difference. Everyone has known that the taper was coming, evident and necessary (actually relieved that it happened). I watched the tepid low volume buying on Friday afternoon... no sellers. Interesting to see how next week shapes up. I think we will have some contention at higher levels (what else is new... that's what makes a market).

     

    tend to agree with you here.....equities seem to be supported by good GDP numbers in Europe.....supposedly

     

    TW

  21. Posted

    Hello BlueHorseshoe,

     

    Let me clarify you please. I'm definitely not Gavin. Myself a new wanna-be trader from Turkey Istanbul. So please take it easy when reading and answering posts. No hurry, no stress., just calm down. I frankly and very openly asked to all friends here just to share their experience if they want. Let me point out please that I never been blindly believed in the propagandist attitudes of any kind of trader who claimed to have a perfect, system, trading platform what so ever. I believe in the sincerity of Tom Williams and I don'T trust the guys which commercialized his developments. Amateur soul is way of life. Everything that comes into commercialization could be manipulated. Then I ask myself this question. If the Trade Guider is perfect platform and does everything find and decide on behalf us, why Gavin and other guys stop marketing this tool and trading on behalf their own accounts and become rich. Rich to that level they they will no longer be in need of open any computer screen once again. The question is simple. Without human observation and decision making no perfect mechanic trading system can be developed. That means it won't work. It could help you but not the baton in the hands of the wizard. I never believe in something like this.

     

    To be frank I downloaded Ninja Trader but somehow found it little hard to use it. I have always been familiar with MT4 but the volume I don't find it reliable. That is why I asked you guys to find a good trading platform, as simple as possible and a reliable volume feed source. I don't use any kinda indicator not at all.

     

     

    I think, I have talked too much. That's enough :)

     

    I hope you understood me.

     

    All the best

     

    Bardayson

     

    I hear you man, same here with Ninja...

     

    TW

  22. Posted

    Meaning of Phi

     

    The value of this ubiquitous phenomenon was deeply understood and profoundly appreciated by the greatest intellects of the ages. History abounds with examples of exceptionally learned men who held a special fascination for this mathematical formulation. Pythagoras chose the five-pointed star, in which every segment is in golden ratio to the next smaller segment, as the symbol of his Order; celebrated 17th century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli had the Golden Spiral etched into his headstone; Isaac Newton had the same spiral carved on the headboard of his bed (owned today by the Gravity Foundation, New Boston, NH). The earliest known aficionados were the architects of the Gizeh pyramid in Egypt, who recorded the knowledge of phi in its construction nearly 5000 years ago. Egyptian engineers consciously incorporated the Golden Ratio in the Great Pyramid by giving its faces a slope height equal to 1.618 times half its base, so that the vertical height of the pyramid is at the same time the square root of 1.618 times half its base. According to Peter Tompkins, author of Secrets of the Great Pyramid (Harper & Row, 1971), "This relation shows Herodotus' report to be indeed correct, in that the square of the height of the pyramid is Öf x Öf = f, and the areas of the face 1 x f = f." Furthermore, using these proportions, the Egyptian scientists (apparently in order to build a scale model of the Northern Hemisphere) used pi and phi in an approach so mathematically sophisticated that it accomplished the feat of squaring the circle and cubing the sphere (i.e., making them of equal area and volume), a feat which was not duplicated for well over four thousand years.

     

    While the mere mention of the Great Pyramid may serve as an engraved invitation to skepticism (perhaps for good reason), keep in mind that its form reflects the same fascination held by pillars of Western scientific, mathematical, artistic and philosophic thought, including Plato, Pythagoras, Bernoulli, Kepler, DaVinci and Newton. Those who designed and built the pyramid were likewise demonstrably brilliant scientists, astronomers, mathematicians and engineers. Clearly they wanted to enshrine for millennia the Golden Ratio as something of transcendent importance. That such a caliber of people, who were later joined by some of the greatest minds of Greece and the Enlightenment in their fascination for this ratio, undertook this task is itself important. As for why, all we have is conjecture from a few authors. Yet that conjecture, however obtuse, curiously pertains to our own observations. It has been surmised that the Great Pyramid, for centuries after it was built, was used as a temple of initiation for those who proved themselves worthy of understanding the great universal secrets. Only those who could rise above the crude acceptance of things as they seemed to discover what, in actuality, they were, could be instructed in "the mysteries," i.e., the complex truths of eternal order and growth. Did such "mysteries" include phi? Tompkins explains, "The pharaonic Egyptians, says Schwaller de Lubicz, considered phi not as a number, but as a symbol of the creative function, or of reproduction in an endless series. To them it represented `the fire of life, the male action of sperm, the logos [referenced in] the gospel of St. John.'" Logos, a Greek word, was defined variously by Heraclitus and subsequent pagan, Jewish and Christian philosophers as meaning the rational order of the universe, an immanent natural law, a life-giving force hidden within things, the universal structural force governing and permeating the world.

     

    Conceptual Phi

     

    Consider when reading such deep yet vague descriptions that these people could not clearly see what they sensed. They did not have graphs and the Wave Principle to make nature's growth pattern manifest and were doing the best they could to describe an organizational principle that they discerned as shaping the natural world. If these ancient philosophers were right that a universal structural force governs and permeates the world, should it not govern and permeate the world of man? If forms throughout the universe, including man's body, brain and DNA, reflect the form of phi, might man's activities reflect it as well? If phi is the life-force in the universe, might it be the impulse behind the progress in man's productive capacity? If phi is a symbol of the creative function, might it govern the creative activity of man? If man's progress is based upon production and reproduction "in an endless series," is it not reasonable that such progress has the spiraling form of phi, and that this form is discernible in the movement of the valuation of his productive capacity, i.e., the stock market? Just as the initiated Egyptians learned the hidden truths of order and growth in the universe behind the apparent randomness and chaos (something that modern "chaos theory" has finally rediscovered in the 1980s), so the stock market, in our opinion, can be understood properly if it is taken for what it is rather than for what it crudely appears to be upon cursory consideration. The stock market is not a random, formless mess reacting to current news events but a remarkably precise recording of the formal structure of the progress of man.

     

    Compare this concept with astronomer William Kingsland's words in The Great Pyramid in Fact and in Theory that Egyptian astronomy/astrology was a "profoundly esoteric science connected with the great cycles of man's evolution." The Wave Principle explains the great cycles of man's evolution and reveals how and why they unfold as they do. Moreover, it encompasses micro as well as macro scales, all of which are based upon a paradoxical principle of dynamism and variation within an unaltered form.

     

    It is this form that gives structure and unity to the universe. Nothing in nature suggests that life is disorderly or formless. The word "universe" means "one order." If life has form, then we must not reject the probability that human progress, which is part of the reality of life, also has order and form. By extension, the stock market, which values man's productive enterprise, will have order and form as well. All technical approaches to understanding the stock market depend on the basic principle of order and form. Elliott's theory, however, goes beyond all others. It postulates that no matter how minute or how large the form, the basic design remains constant.

     

    Phi and Elliott

     

    Elliott, in his second monograph, used the title Nature's Law — The Secret of the Universe in preference to "The Wave Principle" and applied it to all sorts of human activity. Elliott may have gone too far in saying that the Wave Principle was the secret of the universe, as nature appears to have created numerous forms and processes, not just one simple design. Nevertheless, some of history's greatest scientists, mentioned earlier, would probably have agreed with Elliott's formulation. At minimum, it is credible to say that the Wave Principle is one of the most important secrets of the universe. Even this grandiose claim at first may appear to be only so much tall talk to practically-minded investors, and quite understandably so. The grand nature of the concept stretches the imagination and confounds the intellect, while its applicability is as yet unclear. First we must ask, can we both theorize and observe that there is indeed a principle that operates on the same mathematical basis in the heavens and earth as it does in the stock market?

     

    The answer is yes. The stock market has the very same mathematical base as do these natural phenomena. The idealized Elliott concept of the progression of the stock market is an excellent base from which to construct the Golden Spiral, as Figure 3-10 illustrates with a rough approximation. In this construction, the top of each successive wave of higher degree is the touch point of the logarithmic expansion.

     

    attachment.php?attachmentid=37729&stc=1&d=1392229446

     

    Figure 3-10

     

    This result is possible because at every degree of stock market activity, a bull market subdivides into five waves and a bear market subdivides into three waves, giving us the 5-3 relationship that is the mathematical basis of the Elliott Wave Principle. We can generate the complete Fibonacci sequence, as we first did in Figure 1-4, by using Elliott's concept of the progression of the market. If we start with the simplest expression of the concept of a bear swing, we get one straight line decline. A bull swing, in its simplest form, is one straight line advance. A complete cycle is two lines. In the next degree of complexity, the corresponding numbers are 3, 5 and 8. As illustrated in Figure 3-11, this sequence can be taken to infinity.

     

    attachment.php?attachmentid=37730&stc=1&d=1392229447

     

    Figure 3-11

     

    excellent article

     

    TW

  23. Posted

    For the first time ever, Janet Yellen will be making the trip up Capitol Hill to testify on the economy and monetary policy. While market participants will be waiting with bated breath to hear what the new Fed Chairman has to say, one of her primary goals will be to minimize the market’s reaction to her comments. Maintaining low volatility is a top priority for a central banker especially when it is her first time on the podium and this is why we expect Yellen to say as much as possible tomorrow, but reveal very little. Members of Congress will have a long list of questions for her but investors are only concerned with three:

    1. Is She Worried About Muted Job Growth?

    2. What Will She do with Forward Guidance?

    3. Is Taper on a Preset Course?

     

    that is definitely bringing some volatility, regardless if central bankers don't want that :)

     

    TW

  24. Posted

    :confused:

     

    Ok, I am always been a big fan of 61.8% Fibonacci Ratio (so is 50%) - but why are Fibonacci Ratios of 88.6%, 78.6%, 127.2% useful?

     

    I see them in Gartley patterns and the instrument I trade - GC futures. I saw many threads online regarding it is good in Forex ...

     

    However, no one had address the issue of why it works - I see the pattern in GC for 88.6% on the 60 min chart from last Friday up to current, for example, in addition to the 61.8% and 50%.

     

    My objective is to determine why it works and hopefully determine when it will have a higher probably of working.

     

    well, I don't know about Gartley or stuff like that, I trade mostly with Elliott....and under Elliott the Fibo ratios are essential, even the ones no one really looking at.....

     

    I am talking about 81% (which makes the distinction between a common flat and a weak b wave flat), 123.6% (which establishes the irregular) or even the 138.2%, which means the c wave to come in a flat will not retrace the previous b wave as that one was quite strong...and the list can go on as Elliott is mostly about Fib ratios...:)

     

    TW

  25. Posted

    I'm going to write daily in this thread my journey using VSA to speculate in the currency markets. My purpose is to get better at this methods (VSA and Wyckoff) and write daily my own interpretation of the (smart money) large operator's moves in currencies.

     

    Background about me:

     

    Been trading for 5 years (next April), I was trading for the first 4 years using classic technical analysis and supply and demand zones until I discovered the beautiful Wyckoff method and then the vsa method. So basically I am just 8 months using VSA in spot forex.

     

    Things I'm looking for in the charts:

     

    I am usually looking for the Yao Ming bars, basically I look for climatic action followed by a spring (or upthrust) and then the classic no supply bar (or no demand). I use 1H, 15min and 5 min charts.

     

    Everybody is welcome to chime in, just remember that the charts I will be posting are not sell/buy signals, they are just my interpretation of the current story line within the market.

     

    Let's begin :)

     

    hey....I am quite interested in this topic....thank you and let's see more details.

     

    TW

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