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tradingwizzard

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by tradingwizzard

  1. Posted

    Hi everyone,

     

    The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

     

    Copper

    COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS - 28% /

    We’ve got our two major cot analysis tools pointing the opposite way this week: the change in Trader’s positions was large, suggesting prices should decline, but the last great cot extreme in the market that started the recent rally is still in place. Of course “worry we should not” (Yoda:)), cause their timing is different… even if we experience a bit of a decline now (which judging by the effectiveness of cot change signals in copper, I expect), the wider picture seems to support the continuation of the rally.

     

    Sugar

    COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS - 28% /

    COT Index (3yr lookback) / C – 63%, LS - 43%, SS – 29% /

    It’s wonderful to see, how the recent bearish cot extreme ended signaled the recent top and how Traders have moved away from their extremes as prices decline. The change suggests prices could have a “bit of a break” in the decline, but since we are not that close to a bullish cot extreme (would be the case if C reached >20.000 contracts net long / LS reached <10.000 contracts net short), I expected prices to continue the decline.

     

    Cocoa

    COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

    The very large stress that has built up in Cocoa market indicates that the fuel in this recent rally is running out…

     

    I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

    All the best,

    Dunstan

     

    the original COT report

     

    COT charts

     

    Commitments of Traders basics

     

    hi Dunstan,

     

    How do we stay on eurusd and usdjpy?

     

    thanks

    TW

  3. Posted

    Start from 2008 crisis: we had 3 QEs each followed by a wave of EURUSD uptrend, then 2 Greek crisises(and of course Portugal/Ireland/Spain/Italy) each followed by a wave of sharp EURUSD decline to the 1.2 region.

     

    Now we are close to the end of QE3 and ECB banking supervision/SRM/Great stress test, doesn't it make sense that another wave of downward wave is about to start.

     

    Look closely, QE2 coupled with Trichet 1%-1.5% hike only bring EURUSD to 1.49 which was the high achieved by QE1. Then QE3, albeit much bigger than previous 2 QEs only followed with a relatively mild EURUSD appreciation. This price action points to some longer term economic trend. The bull run from 2002 to 2008 overlap with a period of higher growth in EU compare to US, now this is reversed as well, US is slowly getting back to a reasonable growth while EU is in a troubled status.

     

    Technically the EURUSD is running towards the long term downward top trendline, it looks like a bearish triangle is forming, and that's a bearish reversal pattern, normally followed by a break to the downside.

     

    All these factors points to a longer term trend reversal of the 2002 to 2008 bull run back towards the downside. While timing is still uncertain, the direction is relatively clear.

     

    The market can be irrational and EURUSD can run up, but not very far, higher exchange rate do feedback to the real economy, especially troubled economy which is in a recovery states. The price action mentioned above not only is a reflection of the longer term real growth differential that's reversed to the US favor, it is probably also points to the continuation of the down trend of 2011-2012 and a rather sharp decline of EURUSD to a much lower level.

     

    how about a QE from the ECB?

  4. Posted

    End of year trading brings all the time polls and questions regarding what to expect next year and big names in the industry (Faber, Rogers, Dent, etc...) are talking about bubbles all over the place, and difficult conditions to come 2014 starting in the US and moving through the rest of the world.

     

    Let's see TL here what expects from 2014 to bring for financial markets: storm, bad weather or none of them?

     

    TW

  5. Posted

    Moody's warns on Euro zone banks

     

    The credit rating agency reported that EU bank capital and profits will remain pressured in 2014 due to the effects of the European debt-crisis lingering on for sometime.

     

    The bank outlook is mixed with the credit quality of peripheral EU nations softening.

     

    yeah, lately European banks have been also warned by the ECB to make sure they are preparing for when the Fed will unwind the QE

     

    so something is coming....storm or just bad weather?

     

    TW

  6. Posted

    I have heard it said the the daily pivot on OIL is the most imporrtant..Not sure, but I probably heard it from an old ( older then me ) commodities trader. He work for at least 15 -20 years in the Chicago Pits He traded mostly ag products but was known to daddle at times with Oil, Gold, Silver, and even Forex futures.We started one day about Pivot points ( I love Pivot Point ). He pointed out an anomaly to me which I found quite interesting. I forgot about it some time but it has recently resurfaced in my Brain. I hve started playing with it again

     

    The time time is not yet right to give the details of the gimmick, after all I mat be barking up the wrong tree. But I will from time to time post a trade that I see ( they don't happen every day. Remember, These are not suggestions to buy or sell a certain instrument, I just want to sett a tone of transparency in case it ever does develop into something..

     

    If it ever does develop into something, I promise it will never be sold by me.

     

     

    At this early stage, for the purpose of saving us all time and work I am just going to post the trades, not the mechanics involved.. If things start start working out I will provide the EA needed (free of charge).

    BY ALL MEANS...this is a work in work in progress, If ANYONE sees anything that they think will make it clearer to understand, Simplify it in anyway please chime in.

     

    As on all my threads I will brook no name calling,no snide remarks, no negative attitudes.

     

     

    The Pair is CAD/CHF. Entry as long at 8375 SL is at 8330 TO is at 8600 ( this is going to require some patience) If you feel a bit antsy you can move you stop to BE @ 8423.

     

    I placed this trade on my Oanda acct which I am having difficulty posting here, In the future I will us MT4.

     

    good luck.....I am watching cadchf too .....will keep an eye on your trade

     

    TW

  8. Posted

    for what is worth, I voted yes but really don't know the amount......chatter on the market that the risk is Fed will come with a schedulle for tapering the whole program at the moment the first taper is announced.

     

    I watched Bullard on Bloomberg the other days and I was left with the impression they will taper

     

    it remains to be seen

     

    TW

  10. Posted

    I would've liked to see the taper being announced in September... I think it's time, and I don't think a taper would tank the markets. A 15% percent correction would be healthy. In some ways, this easy money policy has been a drag on the real economy and I think the benefits have largely been played out.

     

    Whatever the fed does... I've loved trading this nonsense over the past few months... give me doubt, greed and impending peril any day.

     

    I would still like to see your vote on the poll please.....

     

    thanks

     

    TW

  12. Posted

    House of cards balanced on matchsticks.If he leaves with no taper he can claim success.Anything else is a risk,why take it?

    Economic no's will be a red herring to distract some from the obvious (to me).These figures are always revised leading to the belief that they're manipulated.

    He can say things improving=policy success,fragile recovery,too early to taper.The only spanner in the works with my theory is he has to (always) choose his words extremely carefully.No doubt the insiders have been briefed as usual.

    Just give me doubt and volatility please.Anything else is boring.

     

    I still like your vote please.

     

    Thanks.

     

    TW

  13. Posted

    We all know that what drive markets now is the upcoming FOMC meeting in the middle of next week and this one is going to be followed by a press conference. Bernanke will use most likely this chance to make a statement for his entire mandate as the Chairman of Federal Reserve and this should be interested to watch.

     

    Long story short, what do you say? Will they taper or not in this December? Last jobs data suggests they will, but usd still on the short side when compared with the euro, gbp....Retail Sales this week to be key, I am really looking for the release to be decisive....bigger than the forecast means taper most likely......lower than the forecast then dove Ben in the house.....

     

    Any thoughts?

     

    First the poll then the answers please ladies and gents.

     

    TW

  15. Posted

    I really don't like the eurusd at these levels but markets have their way into pushing things to extremes so I wouldn't be surprised to see it moving a bit higher.......NFP today will clear some fundaental uncertainties though

     

    TW

  17. Posted

    excellent job vultures (Mickey Mouse and Honda there)......when somebody actually talks about trading with you the best you can do is talk crap.....

     

    really impressed here :thumbs down:

     

    for the future spare us please, it is not mandatory to post, said that again in the past and said it again now, maybe you will eventually get it

     

    TW

  21. Posted

    We have genuises turn up on forums and claim tp know it all .Firstly you have not got a clue about profitable methods , how they trade , when they trade and what method they trade.Your knowledge of systems is equally poor , because you are basing it on poor systems , that are not publicly available.

     

    You are using big words on forums , but actually u talk bollox

     

    Set up a indicator reading based on

    1)trend confitmations

    2)keeping out of choppy markets

    3)fundamental biases

    4)avoiding false breakouts/spikes filter ...some price action set up

    5)add stochastics reading on it

    6)correlated intermarket readings

    7)trend line confirmations

    8)price action intent

     

    watch the tone please, no need to offend people....let's behave appropriately please.

     

    thanks

     

    TW

  22. Posted

    eurusd is not defiitely not heading down but the probabilities are highly likely.

    USD is a much much stable currency and US is a much stable economy than eurozone.

    If i look at the chart i already see eurusd in over-bought zone with traders buying it i anticipation of a euro bailout or low unemployment figures but their possibility is also highly unlikely.

     

    I am looking at a totally opposite picture........usd in big trouble: debt ceiling, qe, raising interest rates (in your dreams!!!), etc.....so lower all over the board......however, there is no straight line so we need a correction.....I will buy eurusd dips

     

    TW

  23. Posted

    Would you please define "sequential swing " I wish to ask you a question but need to be sure of how you personally would draw your swings first. Thank you.

     

    hi there,

     

    make sure you say the nickname of the person you are addresing to as otherwise you will most likely get no answer

     

    TW

  25. Posted

    I did. But more importantly, I also questioned my own answer :)

     

    BlueHorseshoe

     

    :) fair enough

     

    I would have not allow it if noticed the scam.....I missed it, but because of the activity, decided to let it run still

     

    Let's try to be constructive

     

    Thanks

     

    TW

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