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tradingwizzard

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by tradingwizzard

  1. Posted

    All due respect to your background in Macroeconomic stats etc, short term trading is about short term technicals and in Fx trading all of your technicals are price based with no consideration of volume, depth or order/money flow.

     

    In more fully disclosed markets, the trader who only uses price based inputs is at a disadvantage to those able to read volume velocity, balance and transaction size as well as market depth.

     

    As to your condescension based post, Trading Wizard, as an online poker player I find that those with such screen names as PokerStud, really aren't. Kind of like your 100 ton toy boat license.

     

     

    UB

     

    thank you, you're too kind.

     

    TW

  2. Posted

    I use demos by ECN brokers (Forex) which give a better view of the market than say a market making broker. Volumes seem to be quite accurate. My question is related to distinguishing between Accumulation and Redistribution especially when the market is already falling and you cant be sure whether the wide spread and consolidation is strength or weakness. I am looking at viewing higher timeframes like H4 to help with this but would love other tips. I was also looking comparing the range of other high volume bars.

     

    HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT?

     

    gees....

     

    TW

  3. Posted

    That's only in the Fx markets.

     

    Wiz,

     

    I never understood, when there are so many other choices, why one would trade a market were you never have the slightest idea of volume, order flow, size transactions or the participation of size/commercial traders. Could you please tell us?

     

    I have always considered Fx a sucker's market and the only reason people traded it was because they first didn't know any better and second because they didn't have the resources either fiscal or intellectual to trade anything else.

     

    Wiz - I respect your posts, your position on this forum and your license with the Merchant Marine - Please show me the errors in my thinking.

     

    UB

     

    Hi there,

     

    I really don't know where to begin with....

     

    I trade currencies more than 8 years now...this is what I do, day in day out....no stocks, no nothing....

     

    Advantages?...come on, don't make me pick the obvious 24/7 trading, etc.....

     

    Maybe it's only me, I'm an economist, MBA graduate in International Business, American University, and that being said I like to compare economies around the globe. Well, if you do that, you might as well look at their currencies. Well again, if you do that as well, you might as well trade those currencies.

     

    Combine the above with technical analysis.

     

    And consider the satisfaction of beating the market year in, year out.

     

    And then you would not want to trade anything else than forex, as those markets look like peanuts on the global arena/macro-economic thinking/technical-fundamental reasoning, etc.

     

    From my point of view, everyone else is either incapable of grasping the reality above, or lacking the intellectual capacity to do that.

     

    So the easiest way is to trade volumes....:)....what a crap........sorry for that, I will ban myself :crap:

     

    TW

  5. Posted

    I had to laugh.:rofl:

     

    Ive watched oily posting absolute drivel across a range of forums for well over a decade.

     

    Its rather ironic that he gets a ban now for writing something that is, in my experience at least, very close to the truth !

     

    I think he has a very valid point when he talks about a vendor or site owner having an edge. If we cut to the chase, a commercial trading forum needs members with an interest in trading, and page views. If you have a mailing list of people interested in trading, that opens up the opportunity to sell them products and services. Page views opens up the oportunity of advertising revenue etc.

     

    In order to attract that membership and those page views, forums need content. Practically every trading forum out there tries to maintain a balance between user generated content, and articles from vendors.

     

    Vendors do not provide that content for altuistic reasons, they provide that content in order to market their products and services. If you dont believe me (and some forum owners and managers dont) try this simple experiment.

     

    The next time a vendor provides you with an article for publication, tell them you'll quite happily publish, BUT they have to publish under an annonymous name, and remove all links to their websites, or mention of any product or service that they supply, or financially benefit from. Then see how many accept or reject those terms.

     

    The fact that a trading forum will publish and proactively promote articles written by a vendor, providing credability and legitimacy by association, is part of the vendors edge.

     

    Ive discussed this in some detail with content editors on other sites (t2w for example) and even the most hypocritical charlatans such as Tim Wilcox at t2w has admitted quite publically that the quality of vendor submitted articles is variable, and that some on occassion fall short of the standard that they would ideally wish to achieve.

     

    That state of afairs, where a trading forum will knowingly accept material that it knows to be of no practical use or value to their membership, but which will lead to marketing exposure for the vendor has to be an edge. Im not saying all forums do that, but most certainly do.

     

    That relationship also works both ways for the reasons that Ive outlined below.

     

    If you look at the top 20-25 trading forums, and the people who own and operate them, then in some cases, you'll see that they are owned and operated by traders, who in some cases actually participate in the day to day running of the site, posting content, and generally getting involved. Some take a more hands off approach which is fine. I didnt look too hard, but I cant find a forum operated by anyone with a publically audited track record, but if you know different, I'd be interested to hear details. In other cases, the people who own and operate these forums also own and operate other non trading related forums. Their knowledge and expertese in internet marketing is equal or greater than their knowledge of trading.

     

    I think its a fair assumption to make that there are forum owners out there whose knowledge of trading is limited, and it wouldnt surprise me if some had never made a trade in their entire life.

     

    I also think its a fair assumption to make that there are forum owners out there with a genuine interest in trading, but who could not in all honesty claim any long term success, and whose principal incomes are derived not from their trading, but from the commercial operation of their forum businesses

     

    I also think its a reasonable assumption that there may be successful traders running forums, either because they are genuinely altuistic, or they run a forum to smooth out cash flow. I certainly have unprofitable months, even unprofitable quarters, and at times Ive even taken long periods of time away from trading, so I understand why someone might want to establish a secondary source of income

     

    The problem of course is that the people running forums who either do not trade, or trade unsuccessfully for a punt, cannot differentiate between "good" advice or vendor generated articles, and "bad" advice.

     

    Ive been doing this stuff for over a decade now, and whilst I may be able to spot complete nonsense, and "intelligent nonsense" I am certainly NOT qualified to assess the quality or legitimacy of many vendor submitted articles. I know very little about fundementals, I know very little about psychology, I know very little about various financial instruments other than those I trade, my knowledge of options theory is sketchy, and I think its reasonable to assume that this also applies to the small minority of genuine traders who also run forums as a side line.

     

    In summary, almost noone who runs a forum, and accepts vendor sumbitted marketing fluff is qualified to determine if those articles are beneficial, or detrimental to their membership, and yet, they accept and promote them. I acknowledge that complete nonsense can be screened out, and probably is by the better websites.

     

    Furthermore, If you take any objective measure of retail trader performance, lets say the quartery CTFC data releases, or even performance from various audit sites or social media type platforms, then its beyond all reasonable doubt that the number of successful traders in percentage terms is fairly low, certainly far less than the fabled 5% nonsense that gets discussed ad nauseum. Therefore you have a readership that are simply not qualified to tell fact from fiction either.

     

    This really is a perfect storm, in the best case we have publishers who cant differentiate good material from bad (even if they are 100% sincere in their wish to help others) providing educational material to an audience who cant differentiate fact from fiction.

     

    In 80% of case we have the blind leading the blind

     

    In the worst cases, we have internet marketers with no knowledge, or interest in trading, misleading and exploiting a mainly inexperienced readership who know less than zero

     

    There's an edge there for the forum owner. They have a an army of vendors willing to provide free content, and a membership who wants that content, but cant really differentiate good from bad.

     

    Some forum owners choose to exploit that edge. I'll give you an example. One forum owner proactively promoted a particular broker as their "preferred broker". This possibly involved falsifying membership polls, but definately involved censoring posts that where critical of the broker. The spreads offered by this particular broker where not particularly competative, the broker was illegally operating a policy on slippage that was detrimental to their clients (for which they later recieved record fines). To make matters worse, their own staff members where proactively advocating a trading method which involved opening simultneous long and short positions, and therefore paying double the spread (from which they recieved a juicy IB kickback)

     

    The forum owners edge in that case is the ignorance of a certain section of their membership, who are perhaps unaware of the typical range of spreads on offer from different brokers, or the rather significant effect of that spread.

     

    When a forum owner censors or deletes posts that are critical of an advertiser or strategic partner thats exploiting an edge. The forum owner has the power to create a false impression of reality. I'll give you an example. A couple of years ago, a large financial fraud was committed in Australia. Another known criminal decided that they'd replicate a similar fraud, and paid a particular trading forum to email an offer of a fraudulent ponzi scheme (already closed down in various countries) to their Australian members. IIRC the forum recieved about $1.60 for each email sent to their membership list. Every single post by membership pointing out that they where promoting a fraudulant and illegal scheme was deleted. The same forum deleted links to official state regulators including FSA, CTFC etc. That particular forum deleted links to the New York courts website, because the links provided documentation that one of their official partners and advertisers, who claimed to be a successful hedge fund manager and trader was in reality a multiple discharged bankrupt due in each case to trading losses, and had actually been charged and found guilty of common law fraud.

     

    However, the illusion to the sites membership simply had to be maintained, and this was achieved through censorship.

     

    Are you serously trying to tell me that the ability to act in that way isnt an edge for an unscrupulous forum owner ?

     

    Obviously some forum owners have a little more integrity and choose to exercise a little more restraint, but the fact remains, there is an edge that can be exploited, and is exploited if the forum operates commercially. There's nothing wrong with that, its not illegal, but it is most certainly an edge.

     

    Lets take a hypothetical situation. Lets assume that a brand new member with one post start a thread at your forum, and posts unsubstantiated claims that your main advertiser FXLulz have cheated them in some way. A bunch of other people join in slagging off FXLulz reporting problems.

     

    You have no idea these claims are true. The other members slagging off FXLulz are probably:

     

    a) unhappy traders who dont actually trade with FXLulz but hate all brokers and grabbing the opportunity to stick the boot in

    b) Just posting for lulz

    c) Sock puppet accounts paid by FXLulz's major competitor to discredit them

    d) Legitimate traders with a genuine grievance

     

    The official company rep from FXLulz calls or emails you about the thread. He claims that the complaint is completely unsubstantiated, that the person who posted it is a known trouble maker, he didnt lose 165,000 dollars when they slipped his stop, as he only has a $200 account, he used 500:1 leverage and placed a stop 1 pip away etc etc

     

    So its now your latest members word, against FXLulz word ? and advertising from FXLulz pays your salary. Are you really telling me that doesnt influence your decision making ? I'll be frank, it would definately influence mine.

     

    Lets assume that you are a man of absolute integrity (and I'm sure you are), and you tell the FXLulz representative that your members have the right to free speach, that you wont intervene, and the thread must stay warts and all, and that you will not sucumb to threats of losing advertising.

     

    FXLulz pull their advertising, and a week later, you get a letter from FXLulz legal department threatening high court action, or an injunction, or veiled threats not to walk in the woods alone. What do you do then, call up your lawyers and instruct them to accept service, and spend god knows how many thousands of dollars fighting a court action to protect the rights of one member who might possibly be lying or confused, or a shill paid to discredit the guys who used to pay your bills ?

     

    You might be a man of absolute integrity who would do that. However, its a matter of public record that certain forum owners would not act in that way. They would delete the thread even if true, becasue its not in their commercial interests. I hate using t2w as an example, they are after all at the black end of the spectrum, but their "CEO" has publically admitted that they delete and censor to protect their commercial interests, and I cant blame them really.

     

    Im not really sure that I fully agree with oilys conclusion that "the more members are banned , the dirtier the site owner", after all members get banned for a variety of different reasons, but I think if you narrow that down a little, and look at those banned for expressing opinions that differ from those of the forum owner, particularly if those opinions are detrimental to the owners financial interest, then he might have a point.

     

    Even you have to see the funny side, oily says site owners/operators ban people for telling the truth, and he tells the truth, and then you ban him, and you'll probably ban me too, which is no problem, Ive just wasted 30 minutes of my time and I need to a) make a cup of tea and b) get on with some work

     

    yes, you have a point, this is why I banned him only for 14 days and not more

    TW

  6. Posted

    Another newbie who is interested in learning more about swing trading and ETF's.

    Have had great success with Vanguard ETF's but now want to try for a bigger piece of the pie.

     

    Hi ragus,

     

    Welcome. I am sure you can find lot's of valuable information regarding ETF trading.

     

    All the best.

     

    TW

  7. Posted

    Hello Everyone,

     

    I hope this is the correct forum to discuss this, but if not please excuse the thread & I am sure the moderators will relocate it.

     

    Several years back I was in contact with a man name Bruce Kenison who was selling a product called Kenison Counting Numbers which from what I learned from swapping emails with him several times was a course on how to project market turning points into the future. The name was actually Bruce Kenison's Market Timing Home Study Course 5th Edition. If anyone has any knowledge about Bruce & his course I would be most interest to hear from you.

     

    I was never able to purchase the course as I had a computer crash & when I was finally up & running again he had stopped answering his email. I cannot even find any customer feedback, but only numerous articles about Bruce & his market calls using his counting method.

     

    Thank you for any information you might have.

    ____________________________________

     

    Hi there,

     

    First time I here about something like that.

     

    Maybe someone here can help.

     

    Anyone?

     

    TW

  9. Posted

    You should only post what is acceptable to protect vendor's edges and snake oil salesmen's edges on forums , otherwise you are destroying the edge of site owners .If u promise not to ask all owner's edge destroying threads to be reinstated (ones he deleted to manipulate content to scam visitors) , or talk negatively about vendors selling education in the zoo called t2w , you may be re-instated to improve content by twisted heads.

     

    There is no room for the truth on the forums against sellers , if it affects the site owners marketing kickbacks , it defeats the scammers scamming vistors , vendors marketing useleless software and idiots from learning the incorrect way to trade.If you become the victim of frauds , you will be reinstated.

     

    You get 14 chimpanzees as moderators trying to manipulate content and ban members and the more members are banned , the dirtier the site owner .

     

    Alright, enough with that.....you've just been banned from here for two weeks.....coming back and behaving the same, will get you some more.

     

    All the best.

     

    TW

     

    TW

  10. Posted

    An example of the failure of execution edge .

     

    The system signal was ready and given to the trader to execute , something on the platform

    distracted the trader and he entered late by 8 pips , it resulted in a profit of 3.5 pips .The system if executed correctly on time , would have bagged 30 pips.

     

    this is crap.....build an EA and it won't be distracted

     

    TW

  13. Posted

    An interesting article.....

    Weather or not you like/believe in it ....

     

    Traders Beat Market Indexes Borrowing Tools From Sports - Bloomberg

     

     

    Has business picked up from institutions Rande?

     

    //////////////////

    A side thought.....

    For those who think there is 'smart*' money out there looking to screw you (a crappy term IMHO).....have a think about this.

    If this sort of stuff has been known for years, and discussed in retail forms for years and the large guys are only just stumbling across it (I dont believe they really are simply discovering it) then it should make you question the idea of smart money - maybe its just that the easy money has gone (or moved).

    (* Not to confuse smart money with scammers and sharks)

     

    agree with your here, there is no "big guys" gunning for your stops.....you are gunning for them either through lack of knowledge or psychological instability

     

    TW

  14. Posted

    EUR/USD Forecast March 10-14

    EUR/USD had a superb week, riding on the inaction of the ECB to reach levels last seen in 2011. Is it the beginning of a long rally? Industrial production data, Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings and inflation data are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

     

    After the ECB made no changes in rates, Draghi gave the euro a big boost. as he refrained from taking action to ease pressure on short-term borrowing rates caused by European banks paying back LTRO loans. Some analysts expected Draghi would end sterilization of its SMP program. The lack of news was excellent news for the euro. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside, and this stopped the rally, but EUR/USD remains on high ground.

     

     

    French Industrial Production: Monday, 7:45. France’s industrial production declined 0.3% in December, following a sharp rise of 1.2% in the previous month. Economists expected a smaller drop of 0.1%. Output declined in transport equipment as well as energy products, however motor vehicles went up. French manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but remained in contraction as well as in the service sector. Francoise Hollande’s reform agenda may give the necessary boost to start recovery in the French economy. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.6%.

    Italian Industrial Production: Monday, 9:00. Italian industrial production plunged 0.9% in December, following a 0.3% rise in November. Likewise, Italian Service and Retail sectors remained in contraction, despite some improvement in the manufacturing sector. Italian industrial production is predicted to gain 0.4%.

    Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. Investor sentiment in the euro zone increased to 13.3 in February, reaching the highest level since April 2011, following 11.9 in January. Analysts expected a decline to 10.7 in February. Investors were more confident regarding the Eurozone’s economic outlook. Investor confidence is expected to rise to 14.3.

    Eurogroup meetings: Monday. The Eurogroup, an informal body includes Member States using the euro currency. It meets normally the day before the Ecofin meeting in Brussels and deals with issues relating to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).

    German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany’s seasonal adjusted trade surplus, narrowed less than expected in December to €18.5 billion from a revised €18.9 billion in November. The release was above the €17.3 billion projected by analysts. Both the trade and the current account surplus were above expectations. Meanwhile, German exports in December declined 0.9% from November, but increased 4.6% on a yearly base. German exported mainly to other EU countries, followed by exports to countries outside the single market. Surplus is expected to rise to €19.3 billion.

     

     

    1.3750 is my target....just like that

     

    TW

  15. Posted

    UBS has entered a fresh USD/JPY position as a trade recommendation from 103.00, targeting 105.00 initially and then 110.00, with a stop at 101.00.

     

    I am looking at the exact opposite thing :crap:

     

    TW

  16. Posted

    You would get more traders participating in qualitative discussions , because threads would not be polluted with biased and false information of vendors , sponsors , scammers , prop shop frauds etc etc etc.

     

    There would be more visitors looking for quality stuff and analysis.More traders would post more free stuff for others to benefit and you would get more free loaders.The site traffic would increase , t2w get it by advertising their site on google , hoping for someone to fall into their trap , then they make their money.

     

    On E T there are a bunch of scammers trying to sell education , trend trading course and team of rebuttal posters employed by the forum .......to aid the interests of sponsors.Not a nice place for good traders to learn for free , but pay to learn from forum failures.You get attacked by PMS , if you give away quality stuff , the stuff the scammers want to sell or trick you into buying.Eventually traders will dissapear from these places.

     

    I come to this site because you have a great poster Rande Howell and I learnt a lot of good things from him .Infact I have learnt more about phsyhology from phsychologists like Andrew Menaker and Mark Douglas , really brilliant writers and phsychologist .They did not want me to post a link to Andrew Menaker's site or video on Elite trader , whose stuff is brilliant , they did not want me to post the best intraday set ups on E T.Moderators send you pms threatening you.

     

     

    Which pro wants wants to waste time on these sites ?

     

    I don't thing you're fair and I am telling you why. We only ban/moderate advertising as it is not fair for anyone to come and post links to this and that just like that....if you have something to share that you learned from somewhere else, you can simply open a thread and post there using your own words and not copy/paste from others and putting links for advertising purposes....

     

    just saying so to be clear...

     

    TW

  17. Posted

    You're responding to a post from 3 years ago? lol

     

    Well, if you want to teach go for it. Trading is hard work but pays a lot better.

     

    It takes time to make real money retail trading, no one is consistent when they start, no matter what their background is. If you come off a desk into retail there are big adjustments, and if you're learning trading on your own it's a lot of work.

     

    I know 4 people in 15 years who I can say make real money retail trading, and I've met a lot of traders. The main problem people face besides their personal shortcomings is conditional change of the markets.

     

    When we were in the 30 year bull run there were guys who did one thing and did well. Once we had a secular change in the market, quite a few can't make money anymore.

     

    What's funny is people will buy books or courses from people who had proven success in past market conditions that aren't relevant to the market today.

     

    Everything is timing and skill. So by the time this market cycle is complete, a new set of rules will need to be developed. This is where adaptability comes in, but adaptability is a double edged sword. A trader needs to be able to adjust to conditional change without changing the rules that work, this kind of process is outside of a lot of people's abilities.

     

    Take flipping burgers for example. If you teach a man to flip a burger today, he can flip a burger for life. But if the conditions for flipping a burger was contingent on a larger range of variables which were constantly changing, then flipping a burger would require a completely different skill set and experience to be successful. You would need the knowledge of what a perfect burger is, and then be able to adapt your burger flipping rules to fit the current condition to produce a perfect burger ...and you'd be highly paid for it.

     

    Since that's not the case, I'd strongly recommend against pursuing a career in burger flipping.

     

    Hi there,

     

    That is one of the best posts I read in a while here on TL and publicly want to thank you.

     

    TW

  18. Posted

    3760 is apparently the number to hit in order to form a top. The break above 3895 brought 4250 into play so 3760 needs to go or tech-wise is set up for 4250.

     

    This, from the weekly charts.

     

    Reiterating my stance, not touching EU until it reaches 4200 or so, going to use my equity on more UJ and NZD longs. Re-analysis after my miscall on short EU @3825 and even 3881

     

    I like eurusd to the upside but not right now.....a move into the 1.37 area seems to be mandatory before anything.....usdjpy is pretty bearish at these levels in my opinion

     

    TW

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