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Market Wizard
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Everything posted by bakrob99

  1. The EPS are AAPL corporate earnings. Dividends are the part of that the company decides to distribute to shareholders. Typically, less than 50 pct. AAPL last paid a quarterly dividend if $.63 per share. Multiply this by 4 for annual and divide by theboricevto determine yield.
  2. The PVP is another name that JPerl gave to the VPOC ... It is a volume based point of control. The POC is a TPO or Time Based point of control.
  3. I wouldn't say that it's all sort out. I have reliable setups and most often the willingness to take them. But EVERY day continues to be a learning experience and I think of things each day to improve and jot them down for analysis the next research day. That challenge and variety is what keeps me interested in doing this for a living. My enthusiasm for recording and analyzing each setup as it unfolds and its results is strictly to build confidence and emotional capital needed to put funds at risk. I
  4. I read price action in relation to key reference levels and taking into account aggressive buyers or sellers. I don't need volume bars or any other type of advanced bar type to do this. (I gave up on them and became profitable because I am concentrating on what matters (I am not saying they don't work - just not for me) Not able to do this successfully. Don't get me wrong - I tried to do this for many years and got out of good winners and of course stayed with the losers. Now that I have a tight stop - I don't mind if it gets hit occasionally. I accept the risk. I will scratch a trade when sometimes but usually based on my target getting hit but not filled. I keep track of everything - including scratched trades. Thanks for your suggestions.
  5. This point is only appropriate for shorter timeframes 5 minute or 15 minute chart - intra day. It is NOT a method. It's an observation. The more trades I have taken and tracked carefully in my trading journal - the more I have concluded that REGARDLESS of what the type of entry is, or methodology, I have determined that over a series of in excess of 2000 trades over the course of several years, each trade has a certain amount of MAE (ticks against the entry position, and a certain amount of MFE (ticks in favour of the entry). I have concluded (for ME - maybe not YOU), that I am better off the use a tighter stop than would be indicated by market structure, and increase size. The reason is simple: Many trades work with almost no heat ( 1 or 2 ticks) - whereas the trades that come back against the position may ultimately work - but only with a lot of heat. I prefer not to sit committed to a trade that is not performing as expected - or as the winners normally do. Take the NQ for example. I use a 10-12 tick stop even if market structure dictates using a 20 or larger tick stop. The reason is that my trade setups work with less than 10-12 ticks of heat and are just as likely to fail at minus 20 as at minus 12. So why lose an extra 8-10 ticks? I can invest that risk in an extra contract or 2 and make more on my winning trades when they occur. By increasing size and keeping dollar risk the same , my analysis revealed that profitability increases. Of course, the trade off is slightly lower win rate - but much higher Average Winning Trade.
  6. Let me clarify. What I am saying is quite simple. Some trades work right away as price gives you a very quick and sustained move in your favour. Others don't Why stay in the trades which don't work right away? Why accept a loss which is much larger in size than you would otherwise have to? Is it because you're "right" about the move but perhaps a little early in the trade? I prefer to make money rather than be right.
  7. Thanks for your article but you missed the method I use for stop placement. It is the method which traders are told NOT to use. A PRICE STOP. The reason I use this method is that I have a setup which count son momentum and after recording and analyzing well over 2000 trade setups in realtime, it is quite clear that some trades work immediately with very little MAE (adverse excursion - aka heat) and others don't. They chop around and may or MAY NOT eventually go in your favour. I have found that I want to stay in the working trades and GET OUT OF the chop em up and go nowhere trades. So as an example - even if structure would suggest say a 10 or 12 tick stop is needed in the ES, I enter and exit if 6 ticks of adverse excursion is experienced. NQ is 12 ticks (max 15), EC is 8-10 - (max 14), TY (ten year) is 4). (The range varies according to the setup being used, ie. the reason for getting into the trade). Now the BIG ADVANTAGE to this is I can increase (literally DOUBLE) my size and the winners are much larger - the losers controlled. You might say - well, you will be STOPPED OUT of trades which end up being winners by doing this. Yes, that does happen but my experience is that it happens less than 10% of the time and I am much better off by missing out on some - but staying in on the ones that work right away. Certainly, the above applies for day time frame trade entries which I expect to exit between 5 - 30 minutes. I would not do this for position trades, overnight or longer timeframe opportunities.
  8. Don't get me wrong. I am NOT saying that CL is not a great tradable instrument, But to suggest that it is "safer" than the emini's is, in my opinion, ludicrous. I use a 4-6 tick stop successfully ES risking $50 - $75 per contract. In CL .. basically anybody who trade sit will agree that you need a min 10 and most likely 15 min tick stop risking $150 per contract. If it were safer it would carry a lot smaller margin - but the margin is at least DOUBLE the ES. I guess the orginal poster I was replying to figures that the CME doesn't know how to set margin - or why?
  9. You have GOT to be kidding right? Ever get into a CL trade and find yourself on the wrong side of a spike against you 50 - 100 ticks? Happens often in CL - NEVER in ES. Or SILVER the most lethal ball buster of them all. Maybe you got them reversed?
  10. I would continue to be long biased at least and until I had a weekly close below the low of a prior week.
  11. To answer this you need to understand what makes something a Ponzi scheme. Basically, it is attracting new money (investors) for the promise of high future returns and using the funds of the new money to payout returns to prior investors to keep the whole thing rolling. In the case of China - the State is the controller and will make whatever rules or changes they need in order to keep the money flowing and the ball rolling to appease the population. They are digging a much bigger whole than the US dug IMO in the housing bubble. This is because the market is not determining prices - the State does. And it leads to massive inefficiencies. It's popular in trading forums to consider the US in disastrous shape - the negative sentiment is so biased because of short term problems. But the US is able to do something about it without having the concern faced by the Chinese Government. The inevitable consequence of the Chinese mismanaged resource allocation is the loss of most or all of the middle class savings which will result in a revolution that puts democratric reform in place. This may take decades but it will happen. It may come much sooner. bakrob99
  12. The forum question should read: Is China a Ponzi Scheme? Answer: Yes
  13. I did customize a combine and basically went for a 30K $2000 profit with $500 loss limit 3 contracts but the part that I changed was that I could trade any number of days up to the 60th day if I needed to continue to get to my profit target as long as I have not hit max loss / drawdown. The loss control part is pretty easy. The trick for me is to hold my winners longer in order to meet the metric which requires greater time in winning trades than losing. I have only traded 2 days of the 18 and plan to trade 2 more next week and then most of January. Most of my trades are 1 lots - at least to start the day and once I have a bit of a profit cushion I will trade 2 lots and try to get a runner. That's the plan - most of December I traded my own account in order to generate some Christmas $$$. I find that I really am not good at trading 2 different accounts at the same time - partly because of the screen real estate I give up. And because the trading domes are so different. The trading this month had been a bit strange with news events creating moves that have no easy entry for me once they are underway. Not sure what the holidays will bring - with the Fiscal Cliff hanging over it could be volatile and if you get on the right side of a move hopefully hang onto it. I'm enjoying it anyway.
  14. I have been around this board for a while and posted occasionally. I'd like to step in and comment on this thread before it gets too weird. I have been evaluating the TST program and am actually in a combine. So, right off the bat you know I am biased in favour of their program. This is irrelevant in my opinion. By entering a combine you are trying to demonstrate your trading ability and if you meet their scouting requirements, in all likelihood, you will be funded and can grow your account in a live condition. As you grow the account and continue to show that your combine wasn't a fluke - they will provide additional capitil. It's a simple as that. Why try to determine the "underlying" motives. Hey - guess what - their motives are the same as mine. MAKE MONEY ! The LOW RISK environment is the opportunity to trade without having to lose any of your own capital. That is about as low risk as it can get. This is obviously true once you get to join and understand their offering. It is by far the most extensive and helpful environment for traders that I have seen in the past 7 years I have spent trading futures every day. For those of us who trade at home - the day time ritual can be somewhat stagnant and lonely. TST is a great resource to be a part of a community of like minded traders helping each other in real time. Plus you get Breaking News, Squawk Service and daily educators all included with your combine. Also - do you realize that if you finish your combine in a net positive, regardless of the amount - then you are entitled to retry your combine AT NO COST. Finally, I realized that by completing the profile and participating in the daily activities I will earn what they call "ticks" in sufficient quantity to cover the cost of an additional combine should that be necessary. bakrob99
  15. What delta would you be selecting. I would assume they must be deep in the money options? Are you using weekly options? Doesn't this mean that you will lose on the option IF you win on the position? Are you only doing this for non-intraday trades? Thanks
  16. That's a great resource and provides very competitive rates. Thanks for the heads up.
  17. Sell programs hit on the Philly Fed number ... but no follow through.
  18. nicely hidden behind everything that will make them unsuccessful. The ability to determine the difference between the 2 is the "holy grail".
  19. Perfect rejection/bounce this AM off the CLVN (66.50 area). What is the slope of your lower TL based on (or started at?)
  20. I'd love to see your posts as the market is unfolding rather than 24 hours later in hindsight showing little arrows. Why don't you post at the time of the entry or even better... a minute ahead of it so we can gauge whether you are real or not.
  21. Why? Are you that lonely at home counting your millions? Why don't you post some screenshots of your daily equity report?
  22. I'm not sure why you think my reply suggested anything about how I traded it. My setup was a short from 1429 to the gap fill. Pretty straightforward. Didn't sell the high. And you didn't have to either to take a profit from the market. I agree. I look at what other traders are doing - but frankly I don't think there is a conspiracy out to get me - and it wouldn't help my trading if I did. I might start to think that it was rigged, and I wasn't responsible for my losses etc... .blah de blah. I am not going down that route. Any losses I take are my responsibility. As are any gains. Thank you. Same to you.
  23. Are you quite sure it is not paranoia? If your theory were true - then you would find nothing but major volume on one side so overwhelming the other side that the market would instantly move. And who would fill their orders? And the so called market consortium would have to exist and be trading in every related market simultaneously. That's just too incredible too accept. I believe that there are large traders who are winning - and other large traders who are losing - Over time - most of the larger traders will win based on their edge - but they lose - sometimes - as often or more often than they win. I believe it is much harder to have a high win rate trading size than it is trading a 2 lot. Beside - you don't need to resort to a "market manipulation" hyposthesis to understand the past several days trading. Thursday saw short covering as the lows held and the news came out from Europe favourably and the larger positions had to be closed. This was evidenced by the "P" shape of the profile for Thursday. Friday popped on the NFP but after it ran out of buyers the responsive selling came in targeting a gap fill, gained momentum to stop the overnight longs out who got squeezed and resulted in long liquidation with no one wanting to hold over a weekend in advance of the election. More of a "b" shape. There was not significantly higher volume early in the RH session on either day which suggested to me that the move would not continue. As long at 1398.50 hold and we push back up - the ES 60 minute chart will be in a confirmed uptrend which could then lead to a change in the Daily from down back to up later in the week. But seriously - do you think there are major players setting up longer term positoins in advance of Tuesday's results.
  24. I absolutely agree with this comment. It took me years, yes years to figure out what style of trader I am. I highly recommend that the OP determines it for himself before losing the entire 30k. In my case, it was much more than 30k before I 'got it'.
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