karoshiman

"Nothing can be said to be certain except death and taxes." So, that's only 2... the rest is uncertain

Agree with gosu and mitsubishi. The impact of psychology on trading is very much overrated. It is only relevant for new traders who have not yet developed a working concept on the markets for themselves, i.e. their personality. It's about confidence in your methods. Then emotions become secondary. I've experienced it myself. I did really stupid things in my trading (revenge trading, etc.) until I got it, i.e. I've developed a method in which I believe and that works for me. But his target group might be the fishes...

As a more useful comment : Why doesn't he trade after the news? At least he would have a little bit more info... and, hence, a little less risk (although giving up also a little bit of profit potential). Action can remain wild some minutes after the release.

48.648% Don't bet the ranch.

Hi Siuya, What do you mean by "value bet" in this context? I know this term only from poker, where you know you have the winning hand (or pretend to have it, which is a more sophisticated bluff) and bet an amount small enough for your opponent to call (giving him or her good odds) in order to extract extra money. Do you mean betting a smaller amount on Fib or EW theories, as these are less likely to win (as opposed to my poker example)? Regards, k

It's not an article, but the longest thread on this forum created by TheNegotiator: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9773-day-trading-e-mini-futures.html I trade only the ES. For FCMs check out the review section of this forum. But you say, you were a member of the CBOT. How come you don't know any FCMs?

I like that one It's comical how people sometimes try to make sense of the markets... I have to admit I've never seriously analyzed the EW theory, and hence, should not judge it superficially... but it never made sense to me why markets should have such predictable patterns (hence, my lack of motivation to analyze it). I put Fibonacci numbers into the same category... but that's for another thread, I guess. I hope that I don't get killed now by all the profitable traders out there who trade successfully based on EW or fibs... Everyone should use what works for them...

Things heard in the Goldman Sachs elevators do not stay in the Goldman Sachs elevators http://twitter.com/#!/gselevator Just as a taster: "Insider trading is like pissing in the pool. It sounds dirty, but really isn't that big a deal."

VPOC = Volume Point of Control = statistical mode of the volume-weighted distribution I have this from the guys from the 'Day Trading the E-mini'. They use this in their trading. RTH = Regular Trading Hours = 8:30 a.m.-3:15 p.m. CT for the SP Futures contract (as opposed to ETH = Extended Trading Hours, sometimes in this forum also called Globex session, as it refers to the electronic platform on which the ES is traded (about 23 hours per day), check out the CME site for more details -> E-mini S&P 500) EDIT: added "for the SP Futures contract"

I AM a trading rock star!!! That's what journal keeping is about... just leave out your losers... Thanks for your reply.

Hi MM, Agree with your post, but where did you get that info from? And to which Wizards are you relating? Anyone from the first Wizard book? Regards, k

Maybe this fact is a hint to something...

First of all, you have to understand what each of the professions exactly is about. Portfolio Manager is a profession on its own as is Financial Educator (although the latter is more of a business idea for someone starting his own business... still you can work as a coach for someone who has started a financial education business). Also, your thread headline says "Professional Trader". That's again something different, although it can potentially lead to becoming a portfolio manager, but not necessarily so. Not sure, whether you have gathered enough information about each of these professions or what your real motives are... (making tons of money?) Go to some websites of companies working in these areas and check out their career opportunities section. There you get some idea of what background is required.

Mine was over-simplified too Just wanted to point out that you have often a trade-off. So, your way of looking at expectancy is the right way to look at it as you have to consider all variables.

Hi Josh, I think this has very much to do with the methodology one uses. I know that you are not a beginner, but your descriptions sound to me that you have a little bit of a conflict of methodologies here. You say it twice that you ignore what you "... would normally pay attention to..." or "... would normally respond to". That's an indication to me that your plan is not in sync with your "normal" or "natural" approach to trading. If you know that your normal approach is successful (long-term) than disregard your current way to make preparations for the day but instead look for other ways to plan ahead (if it is possible at all). Or ask yourself the questions what your results would look like long-term if you would not plan ahead like you do now. Of course, one has to be careful not to fall into the trap of hoping to capture every market move every day. I think no methodology is able to do that consistently. Your approach to trading is very discretionary which makes things a little bit more complicated. My own approach is semi-discretionary. That means that I am looking for certain "set-ups" (sorry, for the use of the word... I know that you don't like it, but I don't have a better word for it). If they don't appear, I do not trade... it's very simple. Well, sometimes it's not simple because I "feel" sometimes that price is moving in a certain direction without one of my setups occurring and I don't want to miss a move. However, overall taking a trade here hurts my bottom line... if not immediatey, then over a course of several weeks as I dilute my methodology and "move" slowly into random trading ... so, it's best for me to wait for my setups and execute them. It is far less exciting than taking trades based on "feel" but it is profitable... Maybe your "set-up" IS to wait for price to come to these areas of interest. And if price does not come there, well... then you don't have a trade. That's part of this business... you have to sit on your hands in these situations (if you know that this approach is successful long-term)! It sounds to me that your current approach to trading is shaken. This can be a good situation as you have the opportunity to develop your approach to the better. But it is also a very dangerous situation as it can lead to big losses. Or both... I've experienced both in the last 3 weeks, but moved back to my old "set-up approach", but with improvements which I did discover in these difficult 3 weeks. Coming back to your original questions regarding planning, my set-ups - if they occur - lead to only one expected outcome. So, if I see my set-up I expect only one scenario to happen. If my trade fails, this gives me important information about what the market "wants to do", i.e. another scenario develops. And as there are not many other basic scenarios (trend long, trend short, consolidation) I am able to understand the markets intention and can react accordingly, i.e. profit from this new scenario and make up for my losses. Of course, this requires "online analysis", but I am able to do that. It is difficult to try to prepare for every single scenario of the market ahead of the day, as you rightly mention the indeterminate nature of the markets. But if your approach is to wait for certain set-ups, this makes things a lot easier as you have a clear point of reference from which you can operate. Hope this gave some food for thoughts! Regards, karo

Good example BHS! However, it would be more realistic, if in example 2 the profit would not be $300, as in example 1, but less as you give up on some of the movement (the 12 ticks). If you take $150 as the average profit (e.g. 12 ticks on the ES... but I don't know if you had ES in mind), then you would have a net loss of $ 1500 with example 2.

Hi Alex, Thanks for advertising your site here. What does the lower indicator calculate exactly and what is the meaning of the colored bars and why are there sometimes 2 bars in a bracket instead of 1? I am in principle not into indicators but was curious about your site... Regards, k

Hi zdo, Interesting article. But what is the link (not "hyperlink" ) to this thread? I don't quite get it... :crap: You mean, as OP has asked for the reasons why people choose trading as their profession other than money? And they did so as they are introverts and like to work alone? Regards, k PS: I am an introvert...

I guess, many do it because of the potential it provides. Everyone is able to hit a big winner once in a while or even a winning streak. Hence, you see what is possible in this endeavor. But winning consistently is what most struggle with. Yet, they stay in the game due to the potential they see. This is human nature I guess. Of course, many don't achieve this potential. Well, it sounds like you have no plan. Otherwise you would know where your losses come from. Every trading methodology produces wins and losses. You have to know what the "normal amount" of losses of your methodology is. And if you have a plan, you also know when you deviate from your plan. Hence, losses related to you deviating from your plan are due to lack of discipline or emotional problems. Just do the math. 10% consistently per month means you increase your investment 200-fold in less than 5 years. I.e., a $5000 starting capital would grow to $1m in less than 5 years (of course, assuming your methodology is scalable and the market you are trading is liquid, like the ES, for instance). How many doughnuts do you have to sell to get that profit? Hence, this is a VERY good return, if achieved consistently. Very very few hedge funds achieve this. For many, it is also the flexibility that comes with it... having no boss, no employees, no customers, etc. and depending on what you have done before trading, it can be less stressful and provide for a much better well-balanced life. You sound like a young fellow who hasn't spent much time in a corporate career. It is all relative. You might have a different view with a different background...

Great quote, love the movie! PS: Yep... played poker for a while pretty intensely ;-)

I'm not into Wyckoff, but I would guess this has something to do with the fact that it is FOMC day. So, I would not be surprised if most trading systems do not provide any clear signals. Wait for the press conference to be in large part over. Trading opportunities might arise after that.

I appreciate your openness here, Will, and I hope that your 30 day experiment will work out fine for you. But watching your trade calls, a German saying with respect to trading comes to my mind. It is difficult to translate it in English as it rhymes so beautifully in German... but the corresponding translation/meaning of it is: "Back and forth empties your account". It relates to overtrading and switching positions often without waiting for the right spots. Something that makes definitely the brokers rich but most of the times not the traders. I am not saying that this relates to you or your methodology but it just came to my mind and I think it is something beginning traders should be aware of. PS: Does anyone know whether there is a corresponding saying in English?

Great post, BlowFish, and one every newbie should think about! This shows that he knows how to extract money from the markets on a consistent basis. This is the one thing where most people fail who get into this business. And it shows that it's important to know yourself and do what fits your personality. Obviously, he is comfortable the way he trades, including his money management philosophy, being probably overcapitalized and under-leveraged (the latter is just an assumption, of course, as I do not know his spending regime).

You might also be interested in this on the subject: Mapping Intraday Price Movement in the S&P 500 Index | Analysis Concepts | TradeStation Labs Mapping Intraday Price Movement in the S&P 500 Index (IRSA)

Hi Josh, Nice post! Great job! However, I did not understand the above paragraph really, just its conclusion. Could you please explain in other words what you did analyze here exactly? I've re-read it now several times but I don't understand... :crap: You mention the 30 min, 60 min, 135 min and even a 45 min period. How does these relate to the aforementioned AM, MD, PM sessions you did analyze? Thanks in advance. Regards, karo