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Everything posted by karoshiman

  1. Hi Will, What was your rationale for this short? Thanks in advance. Regards, k
  2. But irrespective of the profitability of individual traders it still does not make sense to argue against or get out of line only because one has a different approach to trading. I mean, everyone who is in this business for a while knows that there is not ONE holy grail in trading which you have to find or otherwise you fail. Everyone has to find what makes sense and works for him or her. If you have a different opinion on certain aspects of someone's apporach you can state this in a respectful manner. And if such discussion leads to nowhere, move on. It is the responsibility of the respective reader to be critical in what they read and possibly adopt in their trading. Although I have a profitable method already, I am interested to hear different approaches as I am looking for any additional edge I can get. For instance, I've already optimized my existing methods based on comments I've read in this forum. That means I did not change my method, but got good ideas on how to extract more of what I already have. Don't get me wrong, I would not recommend to copy someone else's approach blindly. But if it fits my style I will for sure incorporate it (or at least the parts which I like) into my trading arsenal. I think, the moment you stop learning (i.e. looking for an edge) in this business is the moment the probability of failure increases enormously... Sorry, this was off-topic... so, Will, please continue.
  3. Hi Nikko, Difficult to say right now. I understand gosu's comment earlier that he looks for a strong downward movement (gosu, please correct me, if I'm wrong). I would agree here, if we take out yesterday's close. I would short here. On the upside I see right now (globex session) potential to the 74/75 area, above that maybe to the 85 area for later today. However, the bigger downward movement can still come after that... But then again, I am not good with my "longer-term" projections... lol Also, this week is options expiry... markets behave sometimes strange during this week... at least from my perspective. Regards, k EDIT: The most important news for today are out, I guess (Spanish bond auction demand... which was good and the German ZEW survey... above expectations). Today's other reports play only a role, if the released figures deviate A LOT from the expectations. Draghi's speech could have an impact.
  4. Does this relate to the time-based standard deviation method you use? I've read about it from you in one or two other threads. Which time frame do you use to calculate the 2 standard deviations which you consider in your trading? And over how many bars are these calculated?
  5. Hi Steve, Interesting insight. Do you know the logic behind the phenomenon you describe other than that program traders program it that way? I haven't read Mark Fisher's book yet but will certainly check it out. Thanks in advance! k
  6. Hi Ronnie, I agree in principle to the first part of your sentence, but would modify it to something like "ES is easy to trade for some". However, I disagree with the second part of the sentence... the reason you mention. I don't think that novice traders have a big influence in a futures market with an average daily volume of > $100bn. Just my Regards, k
  7. Thank you! ... days... and weeks I hope too... this whole week was... :beer:
  8. That's okay, it was my fault. I'm not trying to learn from Josh or the others, as this would mean I would have to learn their methodology. I have my own approach, which works well. My problem since Wednesday was that I have "experimented" with a new "longer-term" approach, instead of my usual scalping method. I have my reasons why I did this, but this might be a topic for a completely new thread, I guess. Anyway, I have to analyze this weeks setup and return to my usual method until I have a better understanding of it. PS: Got stopped out with 2/3 at 67 by the way. However, not sure about the Monday up gap...
  9. Jeez... I am long 73 on average :doh: ... expecting a rally into the close... though a shake-out of weak longs can happen before...
  10. Hi Josh, That's a good point. I was about to post to you guys that I feel sorry about not posting but just reading your great thread sometimes, as it looks like I'm taking advantage of you guys without giving something back This is not intended. One reason is, that I am VERY focused on the price action and get distracted by posting. Sometimes I'm in and out of trades literally within seconds. I'm hardly even able to read everything you post here due to this, as some setups come so fast without a heads-up (sometimes I feel like it's a computer game... with me just hitting the buttons lightning-fast... lol). But I'd like to check this thread anyway mainly for my "longer-term" positions or my market bias, and mainly if I'm wrong with my direction... like yesterday, for instance :crap: A further point is, that I have no clue at all about your methodology and terminology (VPOC, etc. ). I'm just interested to see your directional bias sometimes (when I'm obviously wrong) and some key areas you look at. But I don't use the info for my trades in any way (not a good idea, if I don't understand your methodology)... it's just curiosity or my emotional side looking for some comfort... Today, I've expected a downmove in the morning session, but I'm looking for buying opportunities... maybe in the afternoon session... but as you know... ACH Regards, k
  11. Hi Negotiator, It was interesting to see how activity on this forum dried up yesterday. Guess several people (including me!) were caught off guard... It was an interesting day... learned (again!) a lot... Regards, k
  12. Thank you for the information. Forum management will let you post in real-time after you have posted several times. I guess, it's part of their quality management process.
  13. Interesting. Where is your stop on this one and what is your target? By the way, your keyboard seems to be missing some keys...
  14. I recommend strongly using "Breath" before taking a trade... in particular a deep one!
  15. Thank you! Is "point 3" based on your own terminology/proprietary strategy or does it refer to a publicly available method? I haven't heard about it yet. PS: Sorry, that I ask so many questions...
  16. Thank you! That was helpful. I've divided the sessions the same way like you did, except for I do trade the PM session nearly always, although the moves might be smaller as compared to the AM session. Yeah... have been underwater yesterday for a looong time... ... managed to make a profit still at the end of the day, but only with very aggressive scalping in the PM session. Not happy about my performance yesterday... What do these acronyms mean?
  17. Hi gosu, Interesting comment. First I thought I understood you comment, but your reference to dominants and nondom modus (non-dominants I guess?) confused me. Could you please explain what you mean by that, in particular the way you refer to both? That would be helpful. Thanks! k
  18. This has developed into an interesting discussion. As you can see, goodoboy, many ways lead to Rome as there are few absolutes in trading. The answer to trading success lies within you. That's why it is difficult to find or at least requires your hard work to find it. EDIT: Also, in your quest to find the right trading method for yourself you have to consider your limitations. As you work full-time you might have difficulties watching the charts all day in real-time. Hence, an intraday discretionary trading method might be difficult to realize for you and you might try to work on a swing trading method. If you cannot find a good swing trading method for ES, look somewhere else.
  19. I agree with you here. Though, even if a "relationship" exists between an experienced trader and an aspiring trader, it is possible that the experienced trader would expect a certain payment, if the aspiring trader is not a VERY CLOSE relative or friend. This is because the experienced trader himself might have paid a lot to gain that experience... in losses until becoming profitable, endless hours researching and in front of the screen, in emotional pain by failing a thousand times, etc. Hence, he or she might have the view that this experience can not be given away for no fee, just because someone else is looking for a shortcut. But views might differ here based on personality and stage of development of a person/trader... The latter refers to the fact, that the view of the same person can be different, if he or she is a profitable trader for only one or two years and, hence, still remembers his or her painful experience very well, or, if the same person is profitable for 15 years, and hence, the painful experience is farther away.
  20. I have the first edition. Great book! However, no relevance for technical traders.
  21. Hi XS, More recent data works only better, if your different walk-forward testing periods prove so. Otherwise you did just curve-fitting to the recent data. Regards, k
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