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Kiwi

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by Kiwi

  1. An excellent question that makes me think about my own practices. I think it comes down to entries and exits, patience and size with respect to liquidity. We can all be trading in the same direction and yet more than half are likely to be taking losses (hypothesis). How come? The institutional guys want to be long perhaps from x to y so they start scaling in as price goes down and then adding as price goes up. Then exiting or reversing for various reasons. Their average entry and exit can be poor even though they were positioned with the larger time frame flow that they were creating as a group. Most other traders just screw it up for various reasons. You and I, on the other hand, read the flow, identified positions for entry and exit that were likely to deliver good expectancy, and then executed our plans. We took advantage of our willingness to wait and our small relative size to profit where many mr bigs performed poorly.
  2. It seems to me that it depends what you are trying to trade. And thus the market's speed of development determines what is noise and what is useful structure. I like longer timeframe for working the slow development periods, and like db, short timeframes for confirming thrusting action.
  3. It is worth noting that Steidlmayer is revising the hell out of his view of Market Profile with volume strips and his current presentations (one yesterday to be repeated soon). As always he's hard to understand but it is worth the effort for the tiny insights into his variant thinking. I personally use structure (horizontal) on multiple timeframes to trade profitably. I also check the volume profile (see volume strips for an argument of why it is useful) for major peaks as they are worth adding to Support and Resistance, Supply and Demand Zones, for areas where retracements at some timeframe level offer a high expectancy opportunity. Generally speaking structure on a price vs time chart seems more precise (better expectancy) than the MP/VP based opportunities although very strong profiles, especially virgins can be stunningly good. Damn, 999 posts, that is a really nice number.
  4. ta = using price and time (and maybe volume) to predict when it's worth entering or exiting a trade (probabilistic prediction ... if x,y,z then X% of the time price will reach Y before it reaches Z or some more complex exit strategy will be profitable before it reaches Z) (when you do it over a sequence then the sequence has a positive expectancy (avg & std deviation)) Actually market profile is 100% ta so you can add everyone who you know who uses mp successfully to your list of profitable ta traders.
  5. Have you been drinking Roger? We all know why she received the money she was given ... and she really only needed to open an account so that they could pay up. She didn't even need to look at the price.
  6. Onesmith, The problem may be that you really don't understand human nature. You seem to be idealizing people and expecting people to be good. Expecting that if you are nice then reciprocity will occur. And thinking that when you think that you're nice then other people will think you are too. It ain't true. And it ain't true that you have to resolve shit. You have to get over it. Personally I want to come through the internet and kick you until you stop being such a ..... If you release your self-deception then you may let go of this libel stuff. 1% of people are psychopaths - they will hurt you for pleasure or gain without issue. 2% of people don't play the reciprocity game. Those are both rough stats and imo Steve46 isn't in either of those categories but there are people who are. So accept reality and move on. Enjoy the good and avoid the bad when practical. Learn from negatives and get over everything asap. But don't forget to take pleasure where you can, even it it's just the joy of poking a stick at a snake oil merchant.
  7. Damn. Not my favorite choice at all. Did he insult your internet persona or a real person? Thanks for the update.
  8. OS .... Who is it. When its in the "this person" form its smearing a lot of slightly aggressive people. I'd like it to be xxxx because my opinion of him is low but it probably isn't. So what's the truth? MMS ... sounds good. I have a particular issue with a snake oil merchant who keeps posting generic advertorial but is selling long debunked psychotherapy concepts to get people to buy his book. And if they do that they'll find a remarkable lack of solutions ... just bait to take his courses. It seems that labeling his pseudoscience for what it is each time he starts another new thread is a reasonable response. You can't rely on a desperate newbie to do adequate research - they're desperate for answers and easy prey for vendor good or bad, honest, self-deceiving or outright lying. Over and out
  9. If I was going to be a vendor then I'd hope I'd do my homework as well as putting up the sales front and free riding on sites as much as possible. I'd be ashamed if I got confused about who owned and ran the site I was using for self promotion. Frankly I'm surprised and disappointed that Roger has (yet again?) lied: he said he was gone from the site and yet, here he is again. Hmmm ... maybe that's not entirely on topic. Ok, I think that, given the friendliness to vendors, the censorship matches. Personally I think that snake oil sellers, be they Rogers, or Randys, should be rogered royally. MMS, newbies don't realize that this stuff is bs unless its challenged and as a result these parasites get to suck happily on the blood of potential traders. Challenge, even to the point of personal insult is healthy.
  10. Kiwi

    Pearls

    Rules 10 and 11 speak to areas addressed by zen and forms of mindfulness meditation. Also, modern psychology combines mindfulness with cognitive-behavioral approaches in an approach called "Surfing the Urge". What works for giving up smoking can also be a valuable tool for the trader.
  11. How do you know he didn't? Given the "I'm taking my toys and leaving the sandpit" message, and the snide attack on Big Mike with zero evidence offered then I suspect he meant exactly that. Skepticism is the correct attitude for a scientist - science is a game of skepticism, test and verification, not of faith (in the good nature of a vendor who's leaving the sandpit and wants to leave one last footprint). Of course we should be skeptical of any unverified stories of trading capability including Big Mikes. And Rogers. That doesn't mean we think they're lying, just that we don't have enough evidence to support the theory that they are not.
  12. For mitsubishi, The customer is always right is really wrong. Frequently the customer is a complete f'wit. A better one we used to use is that "The customer is always King" which means that he can chop your head off at will. The trick is to correct his world view while keeping your head. For Roger, The wish "I do hope that everyone here at TL finds the lasting success that they deserve" is barbed and as such possibly rather spiteful. Its funny when people destroy the good will they might have built up in their last line. So, off with your head. :smoking:
  13. I am always thankful when I see a thread or posts expounding the use of macd or stoch to filter things like breakouts. It really warms my heart. Thanks guys - this is amazing advice.
  14. I don't think that is what defines the thing that is gambling. The basis of my opinion is: Someone may not be able to afford to lose 20 or 30 trades in a row and thus be trading "money they can't afford to lose." But that doesn't make them a gambler. If they have a tested edge, trade to rules, are trading to discipline and not for the thrill of making or losing money, then they can be a professional trader. They may be in desperate straits but they are not gambling. A gambler on the other hand is placing his bets for the thrill, not for the primary purpose of building or running a business. Secondary elements are likely to include the lack of a sound tested edge and a lack of discipline. Just adding: there is also the issue of bet sizing. If you placed one or two bets (trades) and couldn't afford to loose it (both of them) then, even with an edge, that would be hard not to call gambling.
  15. The chart says its GJ not GU
  16. What is it about people attached to tradestation and its copy? Why this rigidity of thought? The statement that something is a myth can be overturned by only one example. So take any number of organizations where the generators and managers of trading strategy are not the programmers (most hedge funds for example). Find one that is successful. Myth overturned.
  17. It probably depends a lot on how well the platform does what you want initially. I have developed strategies on tradestation, Amibroker and Sierra Chart. Amibroker and Sierra Chart are very similar in their language (you can write code for one and move it to the other with very few changes) and Amibroker is much loved by testers. Actually esignal also has a lot of code structure similarity as well. What I don't know is how good their renko is and that might make starting with Sierra easier. Amibroker is fantastic for fast backtesting but Sierra is much better at providing a reliable interface for real time trading, and with a lot of brokers. Some platforms have programing languages that were designed for the platform (metastock and tradestation) and some have more general languages. Generally the "easier" ones to start with achieve it by restricting what you can do - so you get easier learning but may lose flexibility and depth. The trick tends to be like Microsoft Office - don't try to learn everything, just learn what you need for your job, extending later if you want to do more. A friend of mine does all his testing and strategy development in R. He uses a couple of routines in Sierra Chart to export/import data and entry/export information between the two environments and swears by the ease of testing with R which is an interpreted environment much loved in academic and statistical testing fields. And damned if he isn't faster to do tests than anything I've ever seen. I've stuck with the C(++) environment of Sierra Chart because, once you invest time in learning something it becomes a lot easier to do what you want within it. So, does the platform do renko the way you want, how well does it manage trades, can it support a range of brokers and is it reliable in interacting with them, does it not only let you do what you think you want to do today but what you might need in future, what are its lifetime costs like, does it seem well supported, etc etc. Like most of the important questions in life the answers are not likely to be simplistic.
  18. Pay no attention to Tams. He claims to come (physically or spiritually, who knows) from Geelong. As such his posture of certainty is to be expected even though he usually speaks with little or no knowledge or wisdom. You are right of course to wonder why one would reply to any of his posts. Think of this as an aberration in a good cause.
  19. LOL. No, I think its still valid. I was amused by the original one's removal given the toleration of some of the shady characters who troll for new fish here.
  20. Here's the question: Given that snake oil merchants like Randy H and old sleazeballs who claim they aren't vendors but later show their colours don't get banned, but honest traders like me do for harrying them as they pluck the uninformed, will dbPhoenix cop it for reposting his Journey chapter? (noting that db's stuff is the real oil)
  21. The most amusing thing here is that someone who teaches Jungian (read discredited magic bs) should talk about the allure of magical thinking. Too funny. :rofl: It will of course have been posted on any board that permits him to troll for those who fall for the smell of the oil.
  22. That's got to be the pot calling the kettle black. BBC's still been on the Sierra Chart board but I was wondering if you'd slipped into another dimension. Welcome back DbPhoenix.
  23. For the record my drive was from OCZ (as is half of my RAM) and both have been perfectly reliable. What's more it is pre-write distribution technology so it's old and reliable
  24. I started with SSD's some time back and the thing about SSD's is they are fantastic for reading but not as fantastic for writing. The earlier one experienced bottlenecks and all SSDs have a fast wear out rate. So I go a different way. I put my OS and common programs on an SSD. I also store old data files on the SSD if I'm going to be using them. But I put the things that get accessed frequently on a RAM disk. HD's store bulk items. On the RAM disk (only 2G but RAM is cheap): - Sierra Chart instances for day trading and their actively used data files - IB TWS - Temp files including browser temps That way I get maximum read and write speed for my day trading apps, great read speed for most everything else and good speed for archives.
  25. I'd recommend Acronis or Macrium Reflect to generate disk images that you can quickly rebuild a dead system from as step one. And on a weekly or more frequent basis Cobian Backup to incrementally backup key files. I store to both an offsite disk and another local networked computer.
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