ES End of Day Commentary 10-20-10
Posted 10-20-2010 at 08:13 PM by Tradewinds
Accumulated Volume was up all day. UVOL - DVOL was up steadily all day. This is the kind of day where the NYSE 500 is just marching steadily in one direction all day. The ES opened not to far from yesterday's close, and the half gap did not fill. But here is the interesting thing, the Midnight on half gap DID fill. There was a somewhat unique situation that happened this morning. The ES was gapped UP from yesterdays close, but it was gapped DOWN at the open from the price at midnight. The market often has an INITIAL price extreme around 9:50 to 10:10. And this morning, the first major peak was at 9:51 am. Then price retraced back to the open, but the day's open was an EXACT point of resistance, and price just bounced off that level. The high of the day was at 14:37, and if you look at the UVOL - DVOL there was a MAJOR volume spike exactly at that point. Price extremes often come at a surge, and that was a major surge for the day. This is what I call the exhaustion surge. It's the last final push before the market just can't push any further. It's the end of momentum, and the exhaustion of the trend.
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I wanted to add this; even though the Half Gap did not fill, it tried to fill. Price had a 5 point retracement from 9:50 to 10:23am. That's 5 points. That can make a difference in your profit and loss. So even though the half gap did not fill, there was substantial price pressure towards the half gap, that could have caught you by surprise. Why would it be hard to predict? Because after seeing such a strong price reaction right from the open, it would be natural to think that the market sentiment was bullish. And it was. But it took a little 30 minute break before screaming back up.Posted 10-20-2010 at 08:25 PM by Tradewinds
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