|Ultimate Trade Analyzer Discussion for Ultimate Trade Analyzer owners to share results, questions and other feedback.|
|04-08-2011, 02:58 PM||#17|
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Current Results; A Year's Worth of Live Trades with the Same System and Tradeplan
It has been a wild ride, but the Russell eMini just strung together 3 winning weeks in a row and a breakout to all new profit levels since calling the TF 377 tick live in a traderoom, beginning last April 5th. Today was the toughest of the sessions but it eeked out a winning session. We hit our power of quitting goals with a +.5 result. I did call one additional trade that gained another +2.3 points for a net on the day of +2.8, but I'm not including the final trade in my records preferring to stick to the consistently reliable 'Power of Quitting' results. We ended the week up, +17.2 points, breaking out of our recently sideways moving equity curve to hit all new profit levels.
Here's a play by play of today's trades. Please see the first chart below to see the actual trades referred to here. I numbered the Russell (TF) trades, 1 - 6. It took 5 trades to hit our goals today. The first trade was the new setup, Get 'Bob,' that I've added to the tradeplan recently. It has performed very well but today, as the first trade of the day, it was an 11 tick loser for a -2.2 net. Trade number two was a reversal short trade and our tight trade management technique stopped us out at Break Even. The 3rd trade was the same setup as the first losing trade, allowing us to get back on board the short and it was a winner, going to the middle target of 848.6. The Trailer only picked up 4 ticks.
The 4th trade was actually an add on position that got caught up in some noise and had to stop out for a 7 tick loss for a -1.4 net loss on the two positions. The 5th trade got us short again, allowing us to reenter the downtrend. It hit it's full target but we did make a small 3 tick adjustment on the entry, to make the price break the support level so we only got +1.6 on the fixed position. The trailing position got even less, stopping out with only a 1 point gain. Still though, we picked up +2.6 on that one. Finally, we reentered short again on trade number 6. We incorporated a nuanced rule which had us going for the 3rd target this time, picking up +1.4. Again, the trailer couldn't deliver the home run and we exited that one with only +.9. We gained +2.8 points on the session, excluding trade costs. That's what the market wanted to give us today, based on our consistent tradeplan. We ended with 5 winning sessions in a row and a breakout to all time profit levels, over 530 Russell points with this strategy so far.
For anyone interested, I posted a screen shot of all the TF trades this week as posted in my UTA log.
In order to not let this post get too long, I will follow up with a subsequent post to discuss the equity curve.
|04-08-2011, 03:06 PM||#18|
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Re: Russell EMini Results
In this post, I want to call your attention to two different equity curves. Actually, they're really the same curve. The first one is the curve of just this year's trades. The 2nd curve is the compilation of all the trades since going live a year ago. I think much can be learned by studying both.
Current Russell eMini Equity Curve; 2011 Trades Only -- Notice how this curve looks remarkably similar to the beginning of last year's equity curve (see the very beginning left side of the other, longer curve) where it grinded along, up and down, somewhat sideways, before it broke out to the upside. Take a close look at last year's curve and see what happened for the rest of the year. Are we poised for another long run to the upside? History teaches us a lot. The biggest lessons to be learned however are how perseverence and staying disciplined with a tried and true tradeplan ultimately wins the day and delivers on why we are trading in the first place. To make money! This is a business and we need to expect various cycles to come around at times, including the need to just hang in there and grind it out. That's what the first few months have been for us this year. But if you were around last year, you should remember that we had to grind it out the first few months last year as well, (even prior to going live with the SST, the TF was a very difficult market to trade the first few months) before a +500 point explosion to the upside with the SST. Some trees fall but our forest grows bigger. And sometimes, a growth spurt cycles around too and we need to be in the business, trading our tradeplan, to benefit from that as well.
Running Russell eMini Equity Curve Since April 5th, 2010 -- This is it everyone. I have hit the limit of how large I can run my spreadsheet. From now on, I'll need to manually combine ongoing Russell eMini trades with this running result. (see today's final entry in my running UTA sheet for grins). My system won't let me add any more lines of data. lol.. I was wondering why smoke was coming out of the back of my computer. Anway.. All new profit levels!! + 533 Russell eMini points and running. This year alone, we have added +70.4 points in a difficult gringing market. Imagine what will happen when the market opens up and the moves start taking off, like we saw last year. Patience, perseverence and staying with the tradeplan will carry us upwards and onwards again.
Finally, I'll leave you with a last thought. The Russell has been the market I decided to meticulously track since it was one of the pioneering markets that led to the creation of the SST. It is just one example of how to use the SST, in conjunction with a well thought out and tested tradeplan, to gain an edge in the market. We are finding amazing success on many different markets as you know by now. The important thing is to learn from the Russell eMini experience and apply this model to your SST trading. It's all about a strong foundation and a broad enough vision to put your trading in the proper context. It's a business and you need to just operate it appropriately.
These results don't even consider the other critical part to successful trading as a business, money management. The UTA gives us some tools to help us determine good money mgt practices. I ran the fixed fractional money mgt tool with the UTA on all the live Russell trades as of April 5th, just a few days ago. I haven't updated it with these last 4 positive sessions. But just to give you an idea of the results that might have been achieved by anyone really operating their trade business at the highest level, here's some food for thought.
The exact trades found on this spread sheet, most being called live in our traderoom, if traded using a 2% risk profile per position, and beginning with a $20,000 account would have netted in 1 year, April 5 thru April 5, over $198,000 net (after subtracting out trade costs). This is provided that we capped each position at 10 contracts and never let it get above that size per position. It's just one way to look at it. There are others of course. But it tells the real story and suggests what every serious trader should really be thinking about at all times. Isn't this really, 'why' we are trading in the first place?
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