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tjnoon

Russell EMini Results

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Little by little I want to populate this forum with real useful trade data. Results, in other words. I have been developing a new trade system now and have since been trading the Russell emini for about 12 weeks with it, although I backtested several months leading up to the end of 2009. I'm happy to say that it has been going extremely well. I have spent many hours diligently updating my UTA log with these trades and it has helped me fine tune it. I'm about to go back over the same trades and try a different targeting and stop calculation to see if it would have made a difference.

 

I'm not a computer programmer, but I am a trader. For me, I want to click through the charts bar by bar and really get a feel for what my trade method experiences. And what a difference that has made for me. I'm happy to say that I have had a positive result 10 out of the last 11 weeks so far (week 12 is still in progress and I'm a few points down). Here's the equity curve. I'll post up some more graphics and performance details as soon as I get some time. As you can see, the method really struggled the first few weeks. But then it exploded to the upside. Currently, like the BP and EC, we're sitting right at the all time equity highs. Check it out.

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I also trade the TF and have been examining and back testing several different strategies. I'm not sure what your system is, but it would be interesting to see how it performed in February and March of this year. Many of the strategies I've been looking at fell way short during those months due to the many tight range bound days.

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Great results. The TF was hard for a few months but now I think it's great. I'll be following this thread to see how it develops. I'm looking forward to hearing more about your trade system too.

Edited by Tiobingo

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Mark, I completely agree with you. The Russell was lousy for a while. The vix was a tip off I think though. We had a lot of very low range sessions. I began developing my system around the end of 2009. I backtested about 4 & 1/2 months leading up to the middle of January. The results were excellent so at that point, I decided to begin testing on other markets; Crude, GBPUSD, and a bit of some other random charts just to see if my system was hitting the mark which it was, thankfully. Unfortunately, there are not enough hours in the day and I do this type of thing meticulously by hand, click by click because I believe it is the only way to really get the feel I need.

 

As a result, sadly, I do not have Feb and March. You can see from the equity curve that April was pretty tough too, although it did manage to end on a positive not, up 27 or so points I think. Then it really took off. I'm happy to say that the type of results I am getting is right in line with what I saw with my late 2009 backtest results. Rather than look back and worry too much about Feb and March, I decided to just keep moving forward AND, to keep my eye on volatility and range. If the vix drops way down and range starts to shrink, I'll remain vigilant and watch for dramatic changes in my results. Otherwise, I'll just keep it going the way it is.

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I use the TF 377 tick plan and also a 144tick next to it. I am trying to find a link to which tick chart based on the Average True Range {ATR] of the Day Chart. I have been trying to trade since 2005 and one thing is for sure. As soon as a plan is working, watch for something to change. If can learn more about TradeStation, I believe that an automate management function can be set up like in Ninja. But just starting. Good Luck.

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I have called live in my live trade room, the Russell emini for 2 1/2 years now. I'm happy to say I have a long term winning track record with a variety of different strategies. But one thing I have never done was to jump around from time frame to time frame. For nearly 2 years I called and traded the 233 tick chart. 2009 using a very simple money management plan yielded a 400% net return over 10 months. Now, with SST, I've been calling the same tradeplan since April 5th and after 720 trades, I have a solid 67% winning percentage with the 377 tick chart and the results are even better. Yesterday, we broke out to all new equity highs as we do on a regular basis; +330 points since April 5th using the 2 position SST approach.

 

I don't say all this to boast or brag. I just wanted to point out two things. 1) I am not trying to guess what particular chart will be better from day to day. We're all geniuses with hindsight. The 377 tick has worked and continues to work, despite a tough session from time to time. I stick with it and it makes my daily decisions very easy. 2) The UTA gives me the confidence I need by really showing me what's inside my trade data. I can quickly see a 75% session winning percentage and an 85% weekly win rate. Stuff like that makes a huge difference. Confidence to show up and make the next trade accoring to a proven plan is trader nirvana, in my opinion. Check out the equity curve as of 10/12. Do you think I'll have any problem showing up to work tomorrow and making smart trade decisions at the right edge of the chart? Win or lose tomorrow, we'll be breaking out to new equity highs again before too long. That's the bottom line. That's where I want to live as a trader. SST combined with UTA is a winning combo that will put you right there and empower you to stay right there, session to session.

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What brokers do you guys use to trade the Russell and the emini's? I trade forex and have most of my account with FXDD but would like to have the ability to trade the Russell and emini's.

 

Guy

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Hey thanks for the endorsement of FXDD. I was thinking I'd try them out too. I'd like to have an MT4 platform and I believe they provide that, no? I actually use Tradestation though for all my charting and for trading futures including the Russell emini, etc. MT4 would be a backup for forex.

 

Wow, TJ. SST putting up some impressive results with TF. I've been following your crude posts too. What a run. 36 out of the last 38 sessions winning? 8 winning weeks since the SST's debut. That's incredible! I can see it as I visually scan the chart you use with the SST. Nice work!!

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Tiobingo I can't speak highly enough about FXDD and the support they have provided. Not to mention there 3-8% bonus's. I do not have platform or execution issues at all (MT4). I have been trading since 2006 with them and I have tried just about every broker out there. FXDD is hands down the best. I also follow Greg Michalowaski video commentary and He gives a very basic chart explanation that is easy to follow and understand and he always responds to emails.

 

Guy

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That's great Guy. Thanks again. I recently opened up an stock and option account with Think or Swim and just funded a forex account with them too. I think I'll go ahead and open up a small fxdd accnt too, just to have a way to trade the same pair but with a different timeframe. I'd like to be able to swing trade in one position but also have the flexibility to take day trades which might go in the opposite direction so it seems that having two fx accnts is necessary for a well rounded trade plan/portfolio.

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Hey guywood, I agree FXDD has been great. I also have interactive brokers for my futures and option trading and my charting with tradestation. I feel this combo covers anything I want to trade.

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Guywood, I have traded futures through Tradestation for quite a while now with very few issues. The nice part about having an account with them is it saves on the monthly platform fee. I have also traded futures through thinkorswim but feel more comfortable with Tradestations tools (although thinkorswim has come a long way on the active trader tools over the past year or so).

 

If I was forced to make a change I would consider Interactive Brokers as well. The universal account is very appealing to me.

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This is a long post. I have received a lot of questions mixed and so I took the time to write up something comprehensive. Hopefully I answered everyone's questions and concerns adequately. This is actually a post in our private SST Membership Owner's Club blog but I thought there might be some useful and hopefully helpful information in here for the general TL membership. The TF is a challanging market and if someone gets one useful piece of information or one idea that makes a difference, than that would make me very happy. :)

*******************************************************************

 

Russell eMini; Tough Week but Still Going Strong..

 

Russell eMini traders were put to the test this week. It's been a long time since we had three tough sessions in a row. What's important when dealing with markets like we've seen these last few days is to take a step back and actually put things in perspective.

 

First of all, a good argument can be made, and should be seriously considered to either stand down, or limit your trading sessions when Bernanke is testifying before congress. It's true that some days will work out fine, but others will be very difficult. Also, the day before the grand daddy of economic reports, Non-Farm Payroll is another day to either sit on your hands, or, limit your trading. If you can't get it done in a few trades, you could be asking for bigger problems if you keep on trading. If you don't do your own backtesting, you're not going to have this perspective and you won't be in a position to make the best trade decisions.

 

When creating a tradeplan, it is important to consider these things. Using the UTA helps a lot. You can label your trades with one of the filter columns with something that indicates these types of sessions. You can backtest for them or just track the results in a second UTA file. Deciding to trade or not to trade on these tough sessions can make a big difference. No matter what approach you decide to take, don't expect perfection. It doesn't exist and you'll find that every decision is a tradeoff and has consequences.

 

Let's say you took all the trades through thick or thin, Bernanke or no. My UTA results showed that we took a tough step back this week, with - 22.8 points, possibly our worst week since going live with the SST last April. Some traders ended quite differently. Maybe you took the setup that happened one minute before our start time and was a big winner. Maybe you're using Ninja Trader and had slightly different data and consequently, slightly different trade setups that might have made a big difference. We missed money mgt and a risk free position on more than one losing trade this week. Tough break, but if it's at all possible, it WILL happen at some point. missing risk free stop moves by one tick IS possible and DOES happen. How are you going to avoid it? Don't even try! Also, as discussed on the TF tradeplan page, trading the pm session also would have improved those results. But let's just go with the -22.8 point drawdown, for now.

 

In the grand scheme of things, the forest from the trees perspective, let's look at where we came from and where we are going. In TradersLab, I started a thread on the TF eMini in our sponsored forum where I posted the equity curve up to that point in time. Here's the curve as shown on TL. One of the things you'll notice is that at that point in time (10/14/10), we were hitting all time equity highs, a tad over +330 net points, or $33,000 (gross). We were winning a solid 67% and had taken about 720 trades since going live with the what at that time was called, "Nooner," later to become known as the Seven Summits Trader, "SST." The year ended even better. We maintained our 67% winning percentage and ended the year with + 462.6 points; $46,260. Not bad, huh? The equity curve looks the same as the TL curve above only this time ending at a substantially higher water mark. TF Equity Curve 2010 Total

 

It's easy to look at and marvel at such a result. In fact, it's easy to downright daydream about it and wish that you took all those trades. What's lost in such a snapshot though is the actual human element of experiencing all those trades, in time, month after month, week after week, day after day, trade after trade... When we look at such a snapshot, what is lost on most people, is the actual time and effort that went into creating such a result. It didn't come easy! It escaped a lot of people who, for reasons that haunt most traders, along the way dropped off the winning track that led to the +462.6 net points by year's end. Perhaps they joined and began trading at the beginning of a tough session or two. If they didn't do any preliminary foundational work -- I call it, the 'ditch digging of trading,' then most likely they have no vision of the overall forest, and infact, are lost amongst the trees.

 

Falling trees! Think of each tree as a trade. The forest is the equity curve. With a 67% winning percentage, you have to be willing and able to sacrifice 1/3 of the trees in your forest so that your forest can grow 2/3 larger as a result. It's the two steps forward, one step back, stairstepping equity curve that climbs upwards and to the right. We look at it. We marvel at it. We want it. But can we endure the stairstepping? That does include the steps backwards, by the way. In real time. You can't divorce the step backwards from the equation or it would not be possible to get the two steps forward. That's just the way it works. The one step backwards is part of the winning formula. Why is it that so many traders trip and fall over this critical concept?

 

But what if you DID start at the beginning of some tough sessions AND you didn't have the overall broader vision. You'd probably quit. That's what people do. I can't blame them. Murphy's Law is alive and well and the newbie always lets Murphy in the door, the moment they begin taking live, real money trades. It happend to me, on the first day I ever called a live trade in a trade room, April 21st, 2008. I lost -1.7 points. I had over 60 'would-be' members in the room that day. I remember like it was yesterday. The 2nd day, however, only 25 or so, showed up. We then launched a run that gained nearly +170 points by the end of the year. Ironically, on my anniversay, April 21st, 2009, we gained + 1.7 points. Go figure..

 

I look back on my history of calling Russell eMini trades in a live trade room. I'm approaching my 3rd year anniversary and I can tell you, I have logged some serious screen time. I have literally called live, with my members hanging on my every word, I would estimate, over 3500 Russell trades. That's a lot, right? (And that doesn't even include the many other markets I called live.) While that screen time and live market experience has paid off in many ways for me and my trading in general, and while I have a good sense of what's happening in the market on any given session, I still have to live at the right edge of the chart, not really knowing what will happen next. Like everybody else! The market continues to perplex, befuddle, bemuse, fascinate, exilerate, frustrate and all the other '...ates' you can think of, and tomorrow's session will be no different. That's the world we live in as traders. And yet, when it happens -- or rather, as it continually happens, over and over again, most traders continue to be emotionally attached to the outcome of the trade they're in, without the greater understanding of how their method of trading is producing over the big picture; the 921 trades from "April 5th thru Dec 30th" picture.

 

Do the few tough sessions or 4 trade losing streaks really mean that much when put into the context of what a trading business should really look and feel like? I guess if you are just starting, and your first few trades take you backwards, it would matter. Especially if you're under capitalized, unpracticed, don't really understand the system, don't have the bigger vision to know what to expect, have't experienced the losses and then the charging equity breakouts to new profit levels despite the losses, etc.. If you haven't dug your trading ditches, you have know way to create your trade business foundation. So what are you building on? Can you stay with the program in the face of some preliminary tough sessions? Without a foundation? no way! Or at least, I seriously doubt it. Whether it be this system or some other, no one can stay with something that they have no real understanding of.. No foundation for.. No higher level vision.. What happens is that they wind up fretting the trade they're in.

 

They begin chasing performance, always behind the curve, missing the winners and catching the losses, and ultimately unable to take the next trade that launches the big two steps forward and new equity highs. They begin to cherry pick, and picking wrong. Often, the most uncomfortable counter-intuitive trades are the best trades. They wind up NOT trading the system that has given the winning edge and growing equity curve. They wind up trading something other than that, with no measurable history and guess what.. They wind up blaming the system they are incorrectly trading, refusing to take responsibility for their own decisions and the likelihood that they probably made a big mistake, to begin trading a system without building the necessary foundation; without going through the necessary steps to actually take 'ownership' of the system, so they can believe in it, and trade it with 'confidence' and then, benefit from the edge it gives, over time. It's a story that plays out over and over again.

 

Let's take a closer look at some of the sessions that made up the 2010 stellar results.

 

1. April really struggled but managed to pull it together in the end, finishing with +15.6 points. But after the 2nd week, we were only up by 9 ticks. April dished up some hard single sessions too, the three worst being -7.6, - 11.2 and -7.9 points. Some people said "ouch" when that occurred. Getting kicked in the shins does hurt, for sure. But if you were not over trading your means, that's all it was. A hard kick to the shins. We still had our legs though, and the SST was about to put plenty of spring in our step. At least if you were still around. If you had the vision to stay with it. If not, you quit. Maybe starting out, working hard, and struggling to trade your way to a meager 9 tick gain that 2nd week, was all the pain you could take. Tragic..

 

2. May was like the rocket ship finally pulling away from Earth's gravity. That's what it seemed like and the equity curve shows it. We netted +48.7 points the first week of May! (It should be noted that for the first few months, I was tracking and posting the pm session with the One and Done Power of Quitting approach and those results did end up in these totals. I stopped tracking them after seeing its consistency, for time expediency and because I wanted to turn my attention to other markets. The pm session did improve the results most of the time, but not always. I say this now because it is worth considering if you are currently trading the TF.) May ended with +113.4 net points! But included in that total were sessions that lost in the double digits, much like in April. Some downright ugly sessions, the worst being -10.8 points on a day with far too many trades taken. "Ditch Diggers" should take note and make appropriate trade decisions based on this knowledge. Also it should be noted that the occasional session will pop up where we are hitting winners, but we are getting stopped out prematurely, with only 1 tick gainers, while hitting regular losses. These sessions do exist, pop up from time to time, and do go with the territory. Still, +113.4 net points should have you raising your eyebrows, no? And the risk free stop moves work the other way too, preventing some losses. It's a trade-off.

 

3. How 'bout June? Huge month! Weekly totals were +16.4, +27.2, +15.8 and +6 for a net result of + 65.4 points! The members of our live trade room were loving it! Who wouldn't?

 

4. July was hard. We took a step back in July, actually ending the month down, - 14.2 points. It was a hard month. We actually had a session where we lost -17.6 points and that was after taking a -6.8 haircut the day before. I had stopped tracking the pm session trades at this point. I can tell you -- members were quitting.. Especially those who were just beginning, who let Murphy in the door, who had no vision, no foundation, didn't do any work to actually take real ownership, had no way to put what they were experiencing into the overall, broader context, etc.. (big mistake!)

 

5. August: oof! The best trades (and sessions) follow the worst. Our rocket boosters kicked in and the 'one step back' launched us into a big two steps forward (more even, way more..) as we proceeded to gain +40.9 points the first week. The trailing stop was beginning to wake up and show its prowess. We managed to fight and claw our way to another +16 or so points, ending the month with a respectable +56.7. Moreover, the SST went public, on the 23rd and was officially on its way to being independantly traded by other traders. iWhat a concept that was for me, to actually wrap my mind around. People were actually trading live, independent of my tradecalls, the system that I had created. I can't tell you how insecure I was. What if they didn't take the time to really learn it? What if they didn't take my advice to take it slow and actually do some 'ditch digging' of their own? How could they actually understand what it will do if given the proper chance? All these things were going through my mind. I really felt, and continue to feel to this day, the overwhelming responsibility presenting a trade system that would help people, but could possibly hurt them too, if they didn't approach it properly. But, like any powerful tool, you better take the time to learn it well. Give me a hydraulic nail gun and I'd probably shoot myself in the forehead if I tried to use it without learning it well first. Make sense?

 

6. September started with a rare losing week. When I say rare, I mean it was like, only the 4th losing week since beginning in April and we only lost -3.5 points. We came back with a double digit, holiday shortened winning week after that, winning 11 out of 12 trades (many were just 1 tick gainers that kept us out of trouble) for + 10.6 points. We finished the month with +45.9 points.

 

7. October was hot and cold but we had positive totals each week and wound up with a net of +59.3 points.

 

8. November continued our weekly total winning streak with all winning weeks and a net total of +66.5 points.

 

9. December; who woulda thunk it, but December was quite good, thin volume, holiday trading and all. Here's what makes it even more interesting. We started with a big step back and a break to our weekly result winning streak, taking a -9.6 point loss for our 5th losing week of the year (since April). We even started the Monday following that hard week, with another -6.8 point loss. Members were quitting! Sound familiar? Of course they were. They always quit after a few losses. We charged back though and ended December with +31.4 points, and of course, the year ended with our +462.6 net points (including the couple months of pm trades).

 

Did those that quit, make a mistake? I guess it depends on what they were after. If they were after easy money, than they didn't make a mistake. Trading is NOT easy. It is HARD. But, it is doable and obtainable, to those who want it bad enough. +462.6 points! Tough, hard, painful sessions included.. I've been harping alot on those and not even mentioning the joy and pleasure that we also experienced all along the way, with the big winning sessions. And there were a lot of those! Look at the monthly totals. It didn't happen by accident. But also, lots of 'grind it out' sessions that produced marginal gains and losses. It's all in there. That's trading! All we can do is put the odds in our favor on every trade and let the odds work for us, over time. The winning edge. That's what makes us our money.

 

2011 so far, has been much of the same. Tough sessions and hard, right edge of the chart trade decisions to make, that are counter intuitive, uncomfortable and never easy. Yet the first two months have given us another +55.3 points. Trading has been harder, for sure. It seems the trailer has gone back to sleep. The new and effective GetBob trade has helped a bunch and we ended the first two months with our steady winning percentage of 67.35%. This year, like any year, the world seems to always be teetering on the brink of some disaster and the price action in the markets refect this. Fast markets are always a challange. Slow, boring, yawners are also a challange in a different way. When is the market perfect? Well, it's in the results. We do have some great winning streaks. But they were sometimes hard fought as well. You want easy? Not sure what direction to point you in.

 

Speed forward to today. What more can I say? We just ended with the worst 3 sessions in a row since the SST began. We really took a step or two backwards. I guarantee that members are quitting. They always do. Only time will tell whether or not they are making the right decision, or not. I don't blame human beings for running for cover when the bullets start flying. But good traders can not affort to be human! The market isn't. That's why we rely on a trade system like the SST or some method that keeps us objective. Unemotional. Detached. That's how we are able to know what to do, at the right edge of the chart, when the next perplexing trade setup presents itself, in real time.

 

I hope the quitters find what they're looking for. The sad thing is that they found it already. If they would have just taken the time to learn it well, before committing real money, they wouldn't keep quitting right before the two steps forward to new and higher profit levels begin. There is a step by step process that puts a trader on the right pathway, with the greatest likelihood to achieving success. It's not as pretty as how they imagined it and the attractive profitable results contain within it some serious ugliness at times.

 

That's the business. Accept it and show up on Monday. New equity highs are on the way. Those that didn't quit will reap the benefits, as they always do. 1200 live trades, sitting a stones throw beneath their all time profit levels, 'probably' are not wrong. I'd say 'can't be wrong' but then that would be implying that I actually DO know what will happen next. I don't. No one does. Lean on the system. Let the edge work for you. Be the facilitator of your tradeplan. Be the operator of your trade business. Hopefully that plan and business does not include, fretting the next trade because that will never work, and for sure, it is NOT included in the results I have presented here. It belongs to someone else's trade system. If you are fretting, let that be an indicator that you're probably trading a market and time frame that you shouldn't be trading. Slow it down. Look for a market with less risk. Recapitalize. Dig some ditches. But don't trade beyond your means. The fretting trader is the scared trader is the losing trader. I should know. I had to learn that lesson right away the moment I started calling live trades in a traderoom with all the attendees hanging on my every word.

 

A few tidbits before I move onto other things (for those still reading):

 

• The above results are using the basic 2 position approach only, on each trade. If one were to apply a simple fixed fractional money management plan, as provided in the UTA, and put a 2% risk on each trade based on the avg losing trade, one would have earned nearly $200,000 net of trade costs (commission and slippage) taking the exact trades that produced our +463 points, by year's end, 2010. That would be if starting with a $20,000 trade account and capping each position at 10 contracts each, once the account grew large enough. It also includes the drawdowns that went with it.

 

• In 2008, I started tracking my live UMT Russell eMini trade calls, May 12th. Quit the end of Nov, due to the ER2 migrating over from the CME to the ICE exchange. Also, the sub-prime mortgage was wreaking havoc and the Russell was untradable for a while. Up until that point, my ER2 tradecalls produced +167.3 points and a 60.7% winning percentage with the original UMT, Universal Market Trader.

 

• In 2009, I called 701 live trades in the Russell eMini using the UMT. We managed a solid 61.6% winning percentage and gained 211.7 points. On the 650th trade, we began an 11 trade losing streak. Guess what. Many members quit. Who could blame them, right? Especially those who were newer and lacked the bigger, broader vision. Big mistake! Notice the theme? Trade #12 was the beginning of a 16 trade winning streak and a breakout to new all time profit levels. All the trades were documented on our blog. In fact, I kept a running tally, adding or subtracting position size with each $5000 swing in equity. I subtracted out trade costs each week. by the end of the year, (I began this tracking experiment in Feb, I believe) we were up 400% net of expenses! That's with a 61% winning trade system. See Results here

 

• SST has produced a 67% win rate, steadily, for over 1200 Russell trades, two positions each. Our all time equity highs happened one month ago, where we were over +523 points (+$52,386 with no money mgt increase in position size. Just the two position approach on each trade). Today, counting the tough sessions this week, we are at +495.1points and there's no denying, we went one step back. Current Equity Curve

 

What does that mean though? What does history show us, over and over again? Think about it before you throw in the towel.

 

Here is some interesting information I discovered with the UTA

 

• Trades from 9:30 to 10:00; 1051 trades; 65.1%; +226 points

 

• Trades from 10:00 to 10:30; 495 trades; 65.3%; + 38 points (clearly the least profitable)

 

• Trades from 10:30 to 12:00; 448 trades; 70%; + 158 points (don't read into this incorrectly. Keep in mind we were often finished with our power of quitting goals before we got to these later time slots in which case, many trades were not logged.)

 

• pm trades; 12:40 to 15:50; 226 trades; 73.45%; +73.5 points (this only included the couple months I tested the pm)

 

• It seems to me it would be worth the 'ditch digging' effort to further test a tradeplan that begins around 10:30 and allows for a pm session. The above numbers tell a compelling story but further work is advised.

 

Here's a list of some of the worst sessions and the news events that were taking place:

 

• 4/12/10; - 11.2, Fed Budget Balance

• 4/15; -5.1, tax day and first losing week

• 4/21; - 7.4, day prior to unemployment claims

• 5/12; - 11.2 (again!), Fed Budget Balance (again!)

• 5/20; -10.8; unemployment claims

• 5/27; -6.4; unemployment claims

• 7/8; -6.8; unemployment claims

• 7/13; -8.9; fed budget balance, trade balance

• 8/17; -12.8, Geitner speaks

• 9/3; - 8; Non Farm Employment Change, (day prior only gained +.9)

• 10/18; - 9, Geitner speaks

• 11/23; -5.2; FOMC Minutes; Prelim GDP

• 12/1; -5.4; ADP Non Farm Employment change

• 12/3; -4.8; Non Farm Employment Change, (day prior only gained +.6)

• 1/13/11; -5.3; FOMC Statement

• 2/7/11; -15.5; Trichet Statement; Bernanke later in week and a world going crazy.. Don't know really..

 

• 2/11/11; -5.9; Trade Balance

• 2/16/11; -7; FOMC, Geitner speaks

• 3/2; -8.6; ADP Non Farm Payroll; Bernanke Testimony; Beige Book

• 3/3; - 17.8; Unemployment Claims, day prior to very important Non Farm Payroll

• 3/4; - .9; Non Farm Payroll (had to fight through very hard trading again to scratch our way back to a negative 9 tick result and our worst losing week since SST came out.)

 

Hopefully that list will clue you into the sessions that you might want to approach cautiously or with a reduced expectation. If you read this far down, I truly hope it was worth your time. I will try to answer any and all questions if anyone has any.

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After the tough few sessions (and long post :roll eyes: ) last week, the Russell eMini put together quite a performance. This week, we had a 5 session winning streak. We took 16 trades, winning 10, breaking even on 3 and losing 3. That's more like it, no? In fact, we are a mere 10 points shy of our all time equity highs. This week we gained a respectable +14 points.

 

Just to put things in perspective, sticking with the theme of the prior post (the long one), take a look at the equity curve I posted to start this thread, and then now look at the equity curve after today's session.

 

The point being that the longer term persepective is where you need to be if you hope to be successful, in my opinion. As I said earlier, traders quit after last week's tough sessions. This week, those same traders missed the 14 point gain. The thing is, that any other market they decide to trade, with any other winning trade method, will ultimately go through the same thing and will hit a period of difficulty. The money is made by the edge we get by staying with the winning horse in the first place. Especially when the winning horse gets tired legs for a while. The legs will refresh and the horse will win again. The best trades follow the worst trades. Don't quit at the end of the one step back. Don't jump back in at the end of the two steps forward. We call that, 'chasing performance' and you will always be on the wrong side of the equation.

 

It has been a tough early part of the year for the TF. It was tough this time last year too. We only have +46 points so far this year. As long as we stay with our winning horse, we'll continue to get our upward angle of the equity curve as shown.

031111_tf_trades.thumb.gif.b4b5e2095f9f46661ef7e6645078f606.gif

031111_tf_curve.gif.ff6e3922b9fdd5316787e9d41a2e8da9.gif

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I thought I would post a video walking through the 5 sessions referenced above. We had a 6th winning session Monday, putting the TF just 6 points below its all time equity highs since last April. Today is FOMC statement day and the TF is struggling as would be expected. It is advised to limit your trading to just a few trades, if any, on a day like today.

 

 

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It's been a few weeks since I last updated this thread. If you've been following along, you would know that there has been quite a history of TF trades with the SST. Just click back and look at some of the earlier posts and equity curves. I wanted to do an update now for two reasons. One, because a few weeks ago, we had the hardest -- NO -- let me rephrase, downright WORST, weekly result since going live last April 5th, 2010. Please review the long post a few above this one for a comprehensive review of where we came from, where we ended at the time of that post, and where I said we were going. Since the conclusion of that ugly week, the TF launched itself on a huge winning streak the following week, actually making back the entire loss of the week before, and even more. In fact, it has just strung together, a multi week winning streak and has broken out to all time new profit levels, on very week of my one year anniversary, calling live TF trades with what later became the SST (Seven Summits Trader).

 

It has been a wild ride, but the Russell eMini just strung together 3 winning weeks in a row and a breakout to all new profit levels since calling the TF 377 tick live in a traderoom, beginning last April 5th. Today was the toughest of the sessions but it eeked out a winning session. We hit our power of quitting goals with a +.5 result. I did call one additional trade that gained another +2.3 points for a net on the day of +2.8, but I'm not including the final trade in my records preferring to stick to the consistently reliable 'Power of Quitting' results. We ended the week up, +17.2 points, breaking out of our recently sideways moving equity curve to hit all new profit levels.

 

Here's a play by play of today's trades. Please see the first chart below to see the actual trades referred to here. I numbered the Russell (TF) trades, 1 - 6. It took 5 trades to hit our goals today. The first trade was the new setup, Get 'Bob,' that I've added to the tradeplan recently. It has performed very well but today, as the first trade of the day, it was an 11 tick loser for a -2.2 net. Trade number two was a reversal short trade and our tight trade management technique stopped us out at Break Even. The 3rd trade was the same setup as the first losing trade, allowing us to get back on board the short and it was a winner, going to the middle target of 848.6. The Trailer only picked up 4 ticks.

 

The 4th trade was actually an add on position that got caught up in some noise and had to stop out for a 7 tick loss for a -1.4 net loss on the two positions. The 5th trade got us short again, allowing us to reenter the downtrend. It hit it's full target but we did make a small 3 tick adjustment on the entry, to make the price break the support level so we only got +1.6 on the fixed position. The trailing position got even less, stopping out with only a 1 point gain. Still though, we picked up +2.6 on that one. Finally, we reentered short again on trade number 6. We incorporated a nuanced rule which had us going for the 3rd target this time, picking up +1.4. Again, the trailer couldn't deliver the home run and we exited that one with only +.9. We gained +2.8 points on the session, excluding trade costs. That's what the market wanted to give us today, based on our consistent tradeplan. We ended with 5 winning sessions in a row and a breakout to all time profit levels, over 530 Russell points with this strategy so far.

 

For anyone interested, I posted a screen shot of all the TF trades this week as posted in my UTA log.

 

In order to not let this post get too long, I will follow up with a subsequent post to discuss the equity curve.

040811_tf.thumb.gif.c8bbfe1ee8b701fcf934222f06b34adf.gif

040811_tfTradesthisWeek.thumb.gif.e51b994d3562acfecf0eadc5d1426cbe.gif

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In this post, I want to call your attention to two different equity curves. Actually, they're really the same curve. The first one is the curve of just this year's trades. The 2nd curve is the compilation of all the trades since going live a year ago. I think much can be learned by studying both.

 

Current Russell eMini Equity Curve; 2011 Trades Only -- Notice how this curve looks remarkably similar to the beginning of last year's equity curve (see the very beginning left side of the other, longer curve) where it grinded along, up and down, somewhat sideways, before it broke out to the upside. Take a close look at last year's curve and see what happened for the rest of the year. Are we poised for another long run to the upside? History teaches us a lot. The biggest lessons to be learned however are how perseverence and staying disciplined with a tried and true tradeplan ultimately wins the day and delivers on why we are trading in the first place. To make money! This is a business and we need to expect various cycles to come around at times, including the need to just hang in there and grind it out. That's what the first few months have been for us this year. But if you were around last year, you should remember that we had to grind it out the first few months last year as well, (even prior to going live with the SST, the TF was a very difficult market to trade the first few months) before a +500 point explosion to the upside with the SST. Some trees fall but our forest grows bigger. And sometimes, a growth spurt cycles around too and we need to be in the business, trading our tradeplan, to benefit from that as well.

 

Running Russell eMini Equity Curve Since April 5th, 2010 -- This is it everyone. I have hit the limit of how large I can run my spreadsheet. From now on, I'll need to manually combine ongoing Russell eMini trades with this running result. (see today's final entry in my running UTA sheet for grins). My system won't let me add any more lines of data. lol.. I was wondering why smoke was coming out of the back of my computer. Anway.. All new profit levels!! + 533 Russell eMini points and running. This year alone, we have added +70.4 points in a difficult gringing market. Imagine what will happen when the market opens up and the moves start taking off, like we saw last year. Patience, perseverence and staying with the tradeplan will carry us upwards and onwards again.

 

Finally, I'll leave you with a last thought. The Russell has been the market I decided to meticulously track since it was one of the pioneering markets that led to the creation of the SST. It is just one example of how to use the SST, in conjunction with a well thought out and tested tradeplan, to gain an edge in the market. We are finding amazing success on many different markets as you know by now. The important thing is to learn from the Russell eMini experience and apply this model to your SST trading. It's all about a strong foundation and a broad enough vision to put your trading in the proper context. It's a business and you need to just operate it appropriately.

 

These results don't even consider the other critical part to successful trading as a business, money management. The UTA gives us some tools to help us determine good money mgt practices. I ran the fixed fractional money mgt tool with the UTA on all the live Russell trades as of April 5th, just a few days ago. I haven't updated it with these last 4 positive sessions. But just to give you an idea of the results that might have been achieved by anyone really operating their trade business at the highest level, here's some food for thought.

 

The exact trades found on this spread sheet, most being called live in our traderoom, if traded using a 2% risk profile per position, and beginning with a $20,000 account would have netted in 1 year, April 5 thru April 5, over $198,000 net (after subtracting out trade costs). This is provided that we capped each position at 10 contracts and never let it get above that size per position. It's just one way to look at it. There are others of course. But it tells the real story and suggests what every serious trader should really be thinking about at all times. Isn't this really, 'why' we are trading in the first place?

040811_tfcurve2011.gif.44dc9409fc2a70b8ef6cc2c356fcda60.gif

040811_tfCurve_All.gif.b244cc3753a1a22532e1598e2e309513.gif

040811_tfEndoftheLine.thumb.gif.05716d4e30dc7eb66678fbf9355df1a6.gif

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  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 25th April 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2018.



      FX News Today

      European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.623% in early trade, the 2-year is down -0.5 bp at -0.5685. 10-year Treasury yields pierced the 3% mark overnight, but have fallen back slightly to currently 2.998%, while yields moved broadly higher in Asia with the 10-year JGB up 1.2 bp at 0.054%. Stock markets headed south in Asia, following a weak close in the U.S. with concerns about the earnings outlook amid warnings on profit outlooks hit sentiment. With a lack of key data releases in Europe today the focus is on the ECB meeting tomorrow, where Draghi will likely see through the recent run of weak confidence data to keep the ECB on course to end net asset purchases by the end of the year, but repeat once again that inflation is not yet on a sustainable path higher, which means the ECB is not ready to commit just yet.

      FX Update: USDJPY lifted back above 109.00 from yesterday’s correction low at 108.54, but has so far left yesterday’s 10-week peak at 109.20 untroubled. Ditto for EURJPY. Stock markets in Asia have been broadly lower following declines on Wall Street, with investors digesting higher yields — the 10-year T-note finally touched the 3.0% level (and first time here since early 2017) — and doubts about earnings growth. The USA500 closed out yesterday with a 1.3% loss, while the Nikkie 225 was showing a 0.3% loss in the late PM Tokyo session. This backdrop has likely curtailed yen selling, according to market narratives. In data, Japan’s February industry activity index came in with 0.4% m/m growth, slightly below the median forecast for 0.5%. USDJPY has been trending higher for a month now, from sub-105.00 levels. The dynamic has been concomitant with rising U.S. yields, with looser fiscal policy having given added underpinning to Fed tightening expectations. This comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. Demand for foreign assets by Japanese life insurers has been a factor propping USDJPY up so far in the new fiscal year, while an abatement in concerns about trade tensions and cooling relations on the Korean peninsular have also been in the mix. Overall, we advise following the trend in USDJPY for now. Support comes in at 108.40-42.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today
        Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – -2.043M Barrels from -1.1M last week BOC Gov Poloz & Wilkins speech – Poloz and Wilkins appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce on Wednesday. Support & Resistance Levels



      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


      Stuart Cowell
      Senior Market Analyst
      HotForex


      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $DXCM (DXCM) DexCom stock top of range breakout watch above 75.61,



      analysis http://chart.st/DXCM
       
    • Date : 24th April 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2018.



      FX News Today

      European Outlook: Asian markets moved mostly higher overnight, following on from a positive session on Wall Street and amid ongoing USD strength with a weaker Yen underpinning a 0.75% rise in the Nikkei. The Hang Seng is up 0.94%, the CSI 300 rallied 1.75% amid speculation that the government is considering easing some policies put in to limit the credit boom. The absence of any negative news on the trade front seems to have given stock markets some breathing space and U.S. futures are also up in tandem with U.K. futures. Oil prices are also up and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 69.14 per barrel. For now though bonds are getting a boost and stock markets are also higher, with most European futures posting gains in tandem with U.S. futures and after a positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar focuses on confidence data out of France, Germany and the U.K.. The U.K. also has public finance data and Germany auctions 2-year Schatz notes.

      FX Update: The dollar posted fresh highs against the euro and yen, and many other currencies after a bout of demand in Asia, which extending a broad rally the greenback has been seeing against for over a week now. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) posted its highest level since the first week of January, at 91.07. EURUSD logged a 10-week low at 1.2184, though euro demand has subsequently fuelled a rebound to the 1.2220 area. USDJPY lifted for a sixth consecutive session, making a 10-week high at 108.87. EURJPY is also firmer, though has so far remained below the two-month high it saw last week. The gains in USDJPY have been concomitant with the U.S. T-note yield nearing the 3.0% level, which has been generating headlines, which comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.86% for the better, more than reversing the moderate loss seen yesterday. North Korea’s Kim said that he would be willing to accept IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today
        German IFO – The German Ifo business confidence indicator, due Tuesday, comes in a new format this month, which includes the services sector now. For the new indicator a dip is expected to 102.8 from 103.2, and a decline in the expectations reading to 99.5 from 100.1 in the previous month. However, after the better than expected PMI readings there is a bias to the upside to the numbers. In any case, we don’t expect the April round of survey indicators to really change the outlook for the ECB, which is seen on hold this week, with officials seeing scope to leave the final decision on the future of the QE program open until July, when the risks to the global outlook may have become a bit clearer and the decision is becoming urgent. UK Public Borrowing – Expectations – at 1.6B pounds from -0.272B pounds last month. US Consumer confidence – likely declined to 126.0 in April, from March’s 127.7. US New home sales – expected to rise to 0.630 mln in April from 0.618 mln in February. Support & Resistance Levels



      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex


      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Addendum:
      http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/if-you-limit-any-free-speech-this-is-what-you-get/  
      ...
      Anar  Chicagoans, etc, etc, -  wake up !
      This -> https://www.mintpressnews.com/cheran-mexicos-indigenous-community-that-rebelled-against-narcos-thieves-and-politicians-and-won/240979/
      instead of this -> http://massprivatei.blogspot.com/2018/04/smart-city-projects-are-really-police.html
       
    • $WD (WD) Walker & Dunlop stock nice bull flag breakout watch,



      analysis http://chart.st/WD
       
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