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Duarte

Why S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?

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US equities are climbing rapidly. The S&P has added 15 points so far and the Dow has soared 125 points already.

There has a huge amount of positive US macro data recently starting with the Consumer Spending for March rising 0.2%. Additionally, incomes rose 0.2%. Then Pending Home Sales for rose 1.5% for March since February.

 

This week has been even better with jobless claims decline being responsible for the US indices soaring. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/15950-bloomberg-updates-7.html#post179349

I fully agree that the S&P will be higher in 5 years, but it will take some extensive analysis to substantiate that claim. One thing I can be sure of is that the S&P will be at a higher level on June 1, 2013.

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I am going to look to the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.

As I have written before now, my guess about what is happening is that the S&P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1984.

At this time the key is to understand if the breakout above the long-term resistance line was or not decisive.

When the breakout is decisive, the resistance level then becomes a support level, but I don´t know yet whether or not this will happen. My big question is this: Will red support line hold?

 

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BSu4Flp.png

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I'll try to explain why the S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years.

(It's a guess, not a certainty.)

 

Chart 1 - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between March 1964 and January 2013.

 

My guess about what is happening is that the S & P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1983.

This suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

 

 

Chart 2 - The following chart shows the Price ROC indicator between March 1964 and January 2013.

 

The triple bottom pattern that the indicator did in 1994 was repeated between 2011 and 2012.

After the triple bottom pattern in 1994, the S&P 500 rose during 5 years.

This also suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

 

I would rather say Quantitative Easing (QE) can be one of the factor which will help S&P 500 index to touch a new higher, may be couple of years down the line. (Fundamental point of view on the market).

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The long term market timer portfolios went down its first month since the start.

Following 7 consecutive months of rises, the S&P 500 fell in June.

 

 

Note:

On 10 Jun 10 there was a 2 –for- 1 Stock Split for the ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO).

 

 

The following are the long-term market timer portfolios:

 

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4XOEdPd.png

 

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KseJICa.png

 

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lcRMK2e.png

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S&P will always be higher in any 5 years gap just as the inflation rate is higher in any 5 years gap and value of the currency is weaker in any 5 years period.

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The portfolios reached yesterday a new annual maximum monthly.

Specifically, the long term market timer high risk portfolio reached 53,59% yesterday, a new annual maximum monthly.

It has remarkable how quickly the market goes up. The S&P 500 has fallen just one month since the beginning of the year.

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I will put stop loss orders in all open positions.

An increased number of technical indicators that I use for short term trading are changing to sell signal and I have more doubts than usual about the future direction of the market in short term.

 

Ooq7VKx.png

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Hey,

Nice market analysis you did. Hope so everything will go smoothly.:)

 

Thank you.

 

 

 

Today I close these portfolios and I start another US long term stock market timer portfolio in the forum.

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The goal was to share long term trading ideas in the forum and make a good result in the portfolio. I think that the goal has been reached. This result was mostly achieved by the analysis of S&P 500 made in January 2013.

I hope that the result in next portfolio will go the same away.

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The goal was to share long term trading ideas in the forum and make a good result in the portfolio. I think that the goal has been reached. This result was mostly achieved by the analysis of S&P 500 made in January 2013.

I hope that the result in next portfolio will go the same away.

 

looking forward to see it....will you make a new thread or continue here?

 

 

regards,

 

TW

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looking forward to see it....will you make a new thread or continue here?

 

 

regards,

 

TW

 

Thank you.

I will create a new thread with the name “US Long term market timer portfolio.”

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