Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

TinGull

Trade Location via Market Profile

Recommended Posts

Today was a fabulous day looking at auction theory.

 

Yesterday we had a late day spike to downside, shown at the P period on the left hand profile. Noticing this late day spike downwards, we want to look at the open for continuation of that auction downward, or a reversal. So, this first chart is of the close yesterday and the open this morning. Notice how A period auctioned down, but failed to bring in more sellers. B period began to auction past the open, but couldn't manage 20 ticks. This is an immediate eye opener that the downward auction can not continue.

 

thum_44245e73dbd78719.png

 

 

Fabulous trade location would've been inside the 12140-12160 range. A potential exit? Value Area Low from yesterday. Why? Chances are that if we're holding outside of value, people won't want to see price advertise back in value. They've worked this hard to bring it lower, why give that up? :)

 

As you can see, that trade location say at 12155 would've netted 70 points within 30 minutes.

 

thum_44245e74023edec0.png

 

Market Profile is an extremely useful tool to help locate amazing trade locations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To follow that up...what could we look for TOMORROW? Hindsight is always nice, but let's lay it out on the line here.

 

What we saw today was a rejection at the lows with balance at the top. This would lead some to think...higher tomorrow. Perhaps. I would look at it differently, though. Value placement was lower, though overlapping. BUT, value was placed lower than even on the heavy selloff we had the other day. This leads me to believe that we could auction lower still. IF we do auction higher or lower...The 12230-12270 area is going to act as a magnet. Price will most likely want to revert to the mean, which is right there. POC for today is ending up at 12241.

 

thum_44245e743076f5a4.png

 

Notice there that the yellow lines on the right of the profiles (value) is moving lower. It's interesting to look at it that way. We didn't have enough fresh buying to move us further into value today, and that isn't a bullish sign.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Truly amazing stuff Tingull. I do enjoy your MP threads very much. How valuable MP is when you can observe value and not price. Clearly we are seeing lower value placement definitely not a bullish sign. For those without MP, they may assume strenghth due to the afternoon rally. Not a rallly imo.. but a short covering. Tomorrow will be exciting to see this market drop! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Soul :) I enjoy making them!

 

Yesterday, you and I both spoke of the short covering during the day. What happened this morning? Sold off premarket very hard. Would've been nice to have a short in place overnight...even if just 1 car. Nice reward for sleeping hehe.

 

Tomorrow, I'd expect a little of the same. We certainly could see selling in the morning, but quite possibly a reversion to the mean. If that doesn't happen...the only other alternative is...TREND DAY!!! We could build new value much lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alright...because I'm getting to be a sucker for good trade location....check this one out. This was an area I was watching today. We had a little confluence of single prints, one being a buying tail and the other being a bunch of singles inside the overall profile. Notice with the green line marking those S/R levels on the profile, YM's price nailed that line and only dropped a few ticks below before buyers shut the selling down and lifted YM for almost 50 points.

YMMP.thumb.png.da5df3702f7a6e3a0211a3929c72188a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
To follow that up...what could we look for TOMORROW? Hindsight is always nice, but let's lay it out on the line here.

 

What we saw today was a rejection at the lows with balance at the top. This would lead some to think...higher tomorrow. Perhaps. I would look at it differently, though. Value placement was lower, though overlapping. BUT, value was placed lower than even on the heavy selloff we had the other day. This leads me to believe that we could auction lower still. IF we do auction higher or lower...The 12230-12270 area is going to act as a magnet. Price will most likely want to revert to the mean, which is right there. POC for today is ending up at 12241.

 

Just wanted to follow up on this and see what the high of the day was Friday...12254. Exactly in the middle of the range I had talked about before. Price wanted to get back to where it was last heavily traded at. The YM seems to be a perfect specimen when looking at price opening above or below a fat profile area and reverting back to that price. It happens soooo often.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, how would you use that area for a trading strategy? Do you look to fade the upper and lower levels of the box? Or do you not trade around that area but look to place a trade as price moves away from it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The latter of the 2. When price makes it's way up there searching out buyers, I want to see if those buyers are going to participate and bring it further up. If price stalls there, then buyers aren't willing to push further, and the decline should start to come into play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First, I'll see how the auctions first develop. Are we having an open test drive? Open drive...whats the confidence in the opening? If it's strong, I'll look to play downside moves. If confidence seems weak, then I'll look to play upside moves. Right now, the market is showing strength. YM is far off it's premarket lows. It hovered at daily S1 for a while this morning after going down to around the S1midpoint. I'll still be looking at 12117 (single print buying tail) as 12133 for some resistance levels if we get up to that point. Otherwise...using daily and weekly and monthly pivots to hold the game up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i have a very extensive set of rules for gap downs.

 

i love gaps. i learne a lot about them from john carter's videos and added a little on my own.

 

i haven't found a way necessarily to mess them with MP in many circ's

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i took a short in YM @ that 67 level i mentioned this weekend, and a short in ES on its test of its naked POC @ 1393.50 area.

 

so far, im sticking with the downtrend until i see some reason to believe its over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thanx.

 

i have (to quote a columbian proverb) "learned with blood" in terms of trying to pick tops and bottoms. been there, done that.

 

I do like to go countertrend with option spreads that are cheap. That is much more profitable ime, as premium gets oversold moreso than price and can improve with volatility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Tingull,

 

Thank you for sharing your charts. I have a question on the box you drawn:

 

How do you determine where to draw the box? Is it depending on the thickness of the volume chart on the right ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey Happyguy,

 

The box was just a rough estimation of the "mean" for that trading day. Nothing scientific about how I drew the box...just an estimation on my part. If it looks like the bigger part of the profile, I put it in there. Hope that helps...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks. I must have missed that study when I was using esignal. I'm definitely going back because their data is more reliable than IQFeed and their charts are better than Investor/RT which is the set-up I'm currently using.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 17th May 2024. Market News – Asian and European futures followed Wall Street lower. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   The Dow topped 40,000 for the first time ever, but was unable to close with that historic handle. Concurrently, the S&P tried for its 24th record high this year but failed too. The rise in Treasury yields after stronger than expected import prices, and a drumbeat from Fed officials that rates need to remain high for longer, encouraged profit taking. Most Asian equity markets and European futures have followed Wall Street lower, after US data dented rate cut hikes. Chinese data showing slowed consumption and a drop in home sales, although industrial production numbers looked relatively robust. Japan’s core consumer inflation slowed for a 2nd month in a row in April from a year earlier, while the core consumer prices index (CPI) is expected to decelerate to 2.2% from 2.6% in March, the lowest level in 3 months, but still at or above the central bank’s 2% target for more than two years. Financial Markets Performance: The USDIndex firmed slightly to 104.518 and up from the day’s nadir of 104.080. But it held a 104 handle for a second straight day. It traded above the 105 level from April 10 until May 15. Silver has surged nearly 25% this year, outpacing Gold and becoming a top-performing commodity, though it remains relatively inexpensive compared to gold. Both metals have hit record highs due to central-bank buying and increased interest in China. USOil is 0.75% higher at $79.23. Market Trends:   All three major US indexes closed slightly in the red after posting all-time highs on Wednesday. The NASDAQ closed with a -0.26% decline, while the S&P500 lost -0.21%, and the Dow was off -0.1% at 39,869. It was a corrective day for Treasuries too. Bonds unwound part of their recent rally that took rates down to the lows since early April. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • GOTU Gaotu Techedu stock breakout, https://stockconsultant.com/?GOTU
    • FSLR First Solar stock bull flag breakout watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?FSLR
    • VLO Valero Energy stock attempting to move higher off the 156.97 support area, high trade quality, https://stockconsultant.com/?VLO
    • RCL Royal Caribbean stock top of range breakout watch , https://stockconsultant.com/?RCL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.